Featured Trade: (FRIDAY APRIL 25 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (HOW LONG WILL THE RUN IN MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS CONTINUE?), (LINE), (BWP), (USO), (UNG), (PILING ON THE SHORTS AGAIN), (SPY)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (BWP)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Boy, that was one hell of a recommendation I made back in 2012, getting readers to buy Master Limited Partnerships (MLP?s).
The share price for my favorite, Linn Energy (LINN), is unchanged from when I urged readers to pick it up. However, they have taken home nearly 25% in dividend payoffs during the same period. Not a bad return in this zero interest rate world.
The origins of the special tax breaks that led to the creation of these most complex of securities are lost in the sands of time. As I recall, they date back to a period when the US was chronically short of oil, and industry desperately needed the big ticket infrastructure to produce and deliver it.
They worked like a charm. Never underestimate the desire of the American investor to avoid paying taxes.
An MLP is a ?pass through? instrument that allows profits to move directly to end investors, thus bypassing corporate double taxation. That set up generates enormous yields that are particularly attractive to individual investors. Some 114 MLP?s now exist, and most can be bought on public exchanges as easily as stocks or exchange traded funds (ETF?s).
It is an old Wall Street nostrum to feed the geese while they are quacking, and investment bankers have done so in spades (see chart below). The number of initial public offering for MLP?s has soared in recent years, from just two in 1985 to a prolific 21 last year.
New issue volumes have become so prodigious that they are disrupting the dynamics of the secondary market. Investors are now unloading their existing MLP?s to make room for the new ones, setting back prices on existing issues. The same disease is also afflicting biotech stocks, where an overly ambitious new issue calendar triggered dramatic falls in the sector.
Will Wall Street kill the gold goose yet again?
MLP?s have benefited enormously from the fracking and horizontal drilling boom now unfolding across the United States. As a result, US energy demand is at a 30 year high, and so is the demand for energy infrastructure.
As I often tell my guests at my Global Strategy Luncheons, the smart play in natural gas, where supplies are burgeoning, is a volume play, and not a price play. MLP?s achieve exactly that.
To qualify for MLP status, a partnership must generate at least 90 percent of its income from what the Internal Revenue Service deems ?qualifying? sources. For many MLPs, these include all manner of activities related to the production, processing or transportation of oil, natural gas, and coal.
Energy MLPs are defined as owning energy infrastructure in the U.S., including pipelines, natural gas, gasoline, oil, storage, terminals, and processing plants. These are all special tax subsidies put into place when oil companies suffered from extremely low oil prices. Once on the books, they lived on forever.
In practice, MLPs pay their investors through quarterly distributions. Typically, the higher the quarterly distributions paid to LP unit holders, the higher the management fee paid to the general partner. The idea is that the GP has an incentive to try to boost distributions through pursuing income-accretive acquisitions and organic growth projects.
Because MLPs are partnerships, they avoid the corporate income tax, on both a state and federal basis. Instead of getting a form 1099-DIV and the end of the year, you receive a form K-1, which your accountant should know how to handle.
Additionally, the limited partner (investor) may also record a pro-rated share of the MLP?s depreciation on his or her own tax forms to reduce liability. This is the primary benefit of MLPs and gives MLPs relatively cheap funding costs.
The tax implications of MLPs for individual investors are complex. The distributions are taxed at the marginal rate of the partner, unlike dividends from qualified stock corporations. On the other hand, there is no advantage to claiming the pro-rated share of the MLP?s depreciation (see above) when held in a tax-deferred account, like an IRA or 401k. To encourage tax-deferred investors, many MLP?s set up corporation holding companies of LP claims which can issue common equity.
The popularity of MLP?s has caused a huge inflow of capital, which has caused yields to crash, from 25% during the dark days of 2009, to an average of 6.7% today. Still, yield starved investors threw money at MLP?s with both hands last year, an eye popping $11.9 billion, according to figures from the tracking firm, Morningstar.
As yields have plunged, risks have risen. In February, Houston based Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (BWP), out of the blue, dramatically cut its payout to investors. A panic ensued, chopping 62% off the value of the shares in the following weeks. No doubt, increased competition for pipelines from railroads was a factor.
To protect yourself you must go to the website and read the prospectus before sending a check to an MLP. Unfortunately, these are so complex that even degrees in securities and tax law might not be enough to help you. What do you do instead? Pray, as seems to be the strategy of most individual investors.
At the end of the day, oil has a big influence on MLP prices. So the antics of Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine are probably a welcome development for MLP holders, as it has helped boost the price of Texas tea from $91 to $105 since the beginning of 2014.
However, get a real recession, and one will be overdue in a couple of years, and the price of oil will collapse once again, causing MLP?s to revisit those subterranean 2009 lows. Mothballed drilling rigs and rusting pipelines don?t produce lease payments or pay dividends. These are the risks you are being paid to take with a double-digit yield.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Pipeline.jpg282442Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-15 01:04:322014-04-15 01:04:32How Long Will the Run in Master Limited Partnerships Continue?
This is a bet that the S&P 500 does not rocket to a new all time high by the May 16, 2014 expiration.
The news flow this morning is giving us an opportunity to re enter the short positions that I covered on Friday. Half of the opening 80-point pop in the Dow came from Citibank (C), which surprised to the upside with its Q1 earnings report.
We also got March retail sales +1.1%, better than expected.
We are down only 4.1% in this pullback, not even matching the 6% January dump, and we have clearly not suffered enough for our IPO sins. An eroding quantitative easing from Janet Yellen?s Federal Reserve is clearly taking a toll.
This rally could continue for a day or two more. But it has been so difficult to get short positions off in this correction that I don?t mind erring on the side of being a little early. The reversals ambush you at openings you can?t trade, and take no prisoners. We will probably get our reward on Friday in the next weekend flight to safety.
It is only because implied volatilities are so elevated that I can get this position so far out of the money off so richly, with only 23 trading days left until the May 16 expiration. The spring swoon has sent put prices through the roof, as panicking institutions rush to buy downside insurance a little too late.
Charts and technical analysis are far more useful and important in falling markets than rising one, as the downside crowd is far more dependent on this dismal science.
The fact that these charts are breaking down across markets on increasing volume is terrible news.
A sector rotation out of aggressive technology (XLK), financial (XLF), and discretionary stocks (XLY) into defensive consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) is a further complicating factor that is making matters worse.
During economic slowdowns, consumers postpone purchases of new iPhones and cars. They don?t for toilet paper and electricity.
Ten year Treasury yields approaching a five-month low is another nail in the coffin. Banks are falling because of the rocketing bond market, which is flattening the yield curve to the topography of Kansas, hurting profits.
All that is needed is a match to ignite a broader, more vicious selloff and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has a whole box of them!
1,760 in the S&P 500, here we come, the 200-day moving average!
Keep in mind that fast markets, such as the one we have, I can get you only ballpark prices at best. It?s every man for himself. Praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Burning-Building-e1430840521423.jpg308400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-15 01:03:202014-04-15 01:03:20Piling on the Shorts Again
Featured Trade: (JULY 7 ROME, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (CASHING IN ON MY SHORTS), (VXX), (VIX), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (QQQ), (TESTIMONIAL), (WHERE IS THE MARKET BOTTOM?), (SPY), (QQQ)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
Take the easy money and run. No one every got fired for taking a profit. That?s the mood I was in when I came in and saw my long volatility ETF (VXX) spiking and my short in the S&P 500 (SPY) cratering. I sent out Trade Alerts immediately that took my model-trading portfolio into a rare 100% cash position.
The Volatility Index (VIX) is up a breakneck 35% in a week, while the ETF (VXX) has tacked on 11%. You don?t get such heart palpitating moves like this very often, especially when they are all going in your favor.
It helped that Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, rushed the chart below to me right after the opening showing that the NASDAQ 100, the chief whipping boy in this selloff, is becoming severely oversold and fast approaching a major area of support (the lime green line). Bonds (TLT) are stalling at $110.60, and the ?RISK OFF? move in the Japanese yen (FXY) is approaching the upper limit of its 2014 range.
This all adds up to the possibility that another one of those ?rip your face off? short covering rallies could be near.
The rule in this type of market is to take the quick profits. You especially want to date, and not marry, the (VXX), since the contango over time can cost you your shirt.
Trading on the short side is a totally different animal than traditional long side plays. It is much harder work, as shorts behave totally differently than longs. The movie is on fast forward and you must act quickly.
To be up 15.45% so far in 2014, a down year when most investors are tearing their hair out, and up a meteoric 7.89% in April, is nothing less than heroic. Eight out of my last ten Trade Alerts have been profitable. The email plaudits have already started pouring in. Now all your friends at the country club can hate you, but only if you followed my advice.
Let me tell you what I did right this week, so you can take a page from the playbook of the master.
1) I kept the positions small, so I could sleep at night
2) I did the hard trade, selling when everyone else loved this market
3) I took trading profits quickly
4) I ignored the talking heads on TV so I wouldn?t puke out at the bottom
5) I didn?t take the Princess cruise from San Francisco to Los Angeles, where 50 passengers and 25 crew came down with norovirus. Imagine getting sick before your get to Mexico.
Is it possible that I am improving with age? That I?m becoming a better trader as I get older? That the payoff for a 45-year accumulation of market experience keeps increasing? What a concept!
I don?t think this correction is over. Vladimir Putin can drop a bombshell on the markets at any time. We are going into the traditional May-October ?RISK OFF? seasonal with markets still very near all time highs. The midterm elections in November are introducing a new level of uncertainty. The IPO bubble continues unabated (there are seven today!), and will only end in tears.
And who knows when another cruise ship is going to come down with norovirus?
But nothing moves in a straight line. It?s time to move to the sidelines so I can reload on the short side after the next short covering rally exhausts itself.
As for me, I am going to spend the rest of the day writing checks to the US Treasury to pay taxes for myself, the numerous entities I control, and a gaggle of impoverished relatives. All American tax returns are due on Tuesday.
Then I?m going down to Union Square in San Francisco and buy myself a new Brioni pin stripe suit, another pair of Bruno Magli alligator skin shoes, and have a kir royal at the top of the Mark Hopkins Hotel, thankful for my good fortune that I can pay all these bills.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Burning-Building-e1430840521423.jpg308400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:05:442014-04-14 01:05:44Cashing in on My Shorts
After yesterday?s 267 point swoon, the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen 4.2% from its late March peak. It looks like the ?Sell in May? crowd, of which I was one, is having the last laugh after all.
Is this a modest 5% correction in a continuing bull market? Or is it the beginning of a Harry Dent style crash to (SPX) 300 (click here for the interview on Hedge Fund Radio http://madhedgefundradio.com/radio-show/ )? Let?s go to the videotape.
This was one of the most overbought stock markets in my career. I have to think back to the top of the dotcom boom in 2000 and the pinnacle of the Tokyo bubble in 1989 to recall similar levels of ebullience.
In fact three weeks ago, we were at a real risk of a major melt up if Vladimir Putin hadn?t come along. So the modest selling we have seen so far has been welcome, even by the bulls.
There is still an excellent chance the current decline will be nothing more than a pit stop on the way to new highs, as long as WW III doesn?t break out. Institutional weightings in equities are low, compared to 20 years ago. Individuals have yet to really dip their toes in stocks, still scared by the events of 2008-09. It seems that everyone in the world is overweight bonds.
In recent days, the ten-year Treasury bond yield has fallen to 2.62% a mere 35 basis points over the S&P 500 yield ratio at 2.27%. With a price/earnings multiple of 15.5 times this years earnings, we are bang in the middle of a long time historic range of 10-22.
Zero overnight interest rates argue that we should be at the top end of that range. The argument that the ?Buy the Dip? crowd is still lurking under the market is real, just a little further than the recent dips allowed.
So how much lower do we have to go? The following is an itinerary of what your summer trading might look like, expressed in (SPX) terms:
6-3.2%% - 1,839 was the 50 day moving average, and we decisively broke through that yesterday. The augurs for more weakness to come.
-8.4% - 1,740 is the 200 day moving average and could be our next sop
-16.8 ? 1,580 is the breakout from the double top that extends all the way back to 1999
To confuse you even further, contemplate the concept that I refer to as the ?Lead Contract.? There is always a lead contract around, one on which all traders maintain a laser like focus, which leads every other financial product out there. It says ?Jump,? and we ask ?How High?? It is also always changing.
Right now, the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is the lead contract. Every flight from risk during the past two years has been preceded by falling technology stocks. If you want to get a preview of each day?s US trading, stay up the night before and watch the action in Tokyo, as I often do.
You might even learn a word or two of Japanese, which will come in handy when ordering in the better New York sushi shops.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Girl-with-Chopsticks.jpg406273Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:03:582014-04-14 01:03:58Where?s This Market Bottom?
Featured Trade: (FRIDAY APRIL 25 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER BLASTS TO NEW ALL TIME HIGH) (SPY), (IWM), (VXX), (TLT), (GE), ?(GS), (FXY), (UUP), (GLD), (USO), (THE RETURN OF PETER THE GREAT), (RSX)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
General Electric Company (GE)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
United States Oil (USO)
Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)
The industry beating performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service has maintained its gobsmacking pace from last year, picking up another 14.5% profit so far in 2014.
The Dow Average was down a pitiful 1% during the same period, pegging my outperformance of the index at a stunning 15.50%. April alone is up a blistering 6.89%. The trailing 12-month return is 44.4%.? 2013 closed with a total return for followers of 67.45%.
The three-year return is now an amazing 137%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 31%. That brings my averaged annualized return up to 40.8%. Not bad in this zero interest rate world. It?s better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
This has been the profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was launched in 2010. Thousands of followers now earn a full time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud of.
Not a day goes by without finding grateful emails thanking me for changing their lives. Stories abound of mortgages paid off, college educations financed, and aging parents supported. Quite a few use my award winning mentoring service to finally achieve financial independence and told their bosses to go jump off a bridge.
I won?t pass on the pictures they sent me. To read the plaudits yourself, please go to my testimonials page. They are all real.
The hot streak continues.
I have been bearish on the market for a month now. I have been using every rally to sell the market short. I bought puts and put spreads in the S&P 500 (SPY), the Russell 2000 (IWM). I also built up a major long position in the (VXX), betting on a serious market swoon occurring sometime in May.
In the meantime, I quickly stopped out of long positions I had in Goldman Sachs (GS), General Electric (GE), and a short position in the Japanese yen (FXY).
I covered the case for my ultra bearish posture in detail at my April 9 Global Strategy webinar. There I posted charts showing that best case, the (SPY) is in for an 8% selloff, and worst case, is about to perform a 17% swan dive (click here for the Webinar page). Treasuries (TLT) should rocket, and the dollar (UUP) will take a dive, and gold (GLD) will get a love tap. Even crude oil (USO) is benefiting from a flight to safety bid.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, was no small part of this success. Since the market became technically and momentum driven, I have been conferring with him before sending out every Trade Alert. Together, our success rate is 100%.
What would you expect with a combined 85 years of market experience between the two of us? Followers are laughing all the way to the bank.
Don?t forget that Jim clocked an amazing 2013 of a staggering 374%. That is just for an eight-month year! Followers are laughing all the way to the bank.
The coming year promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere in 2014.
The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy. Please join me on the gravy train. You will never get a better chance than this to make money for your personal account.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011, 14.87% in 2012, and 67.45% in 2013.
The service includes my?Trade Alert Service?and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars, order?Global Trading Dispatch PRO?adds Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service.
To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? or "Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO" box on the right, and click on the blue ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/John-Thomas1-e1421097493926.jpg355400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-11 01:04:352014-04-11 01:04:35Mad Hedge Fund Trader Blasts to New All Time High
That is what the latest rumblings out of Russia confirm, with President Vladimir Putin demanding no less than $18 billion in payments from the Ukraine for its natural gas purchases. Never mind that this is more than the beleaguered country could possibly ever use.
?Pay up, or we invade? seems to be the message. The Dow Average promptly sold off 267 points.
This is so 19th century. It reminds one of when England seized the Suez Canal from Egypt in 1875 after that hapless country?s failure to pay interest on its bonds. A perennially mismanaged Egypt practically invented the concept of sovereign debt default.
I remember it like it was yesterday.
The big problem for we stock traders is that the Russian public has been eating up Putin?s recent actions in the Ukraine, and are egging him on for more. Many are still bitter over the collapse of the old Soviet Union, and are lusting for payback. A partial reconstitution of the old Soviet Union under Russian tutelage would fit the bill nicely. Putin is simply delivering to the people want they want, as does every good politician.
Vlad certainly has a strong base on which to build. During his first premiership and presidency (1999?2008), real incomes increased by 250%, real wages more than tripled; unemployment and poverty more than halved, and standards of living rose dramatically. Putin's first presidency was marked by high economic growth. The Russian economy grew for eight straight years, seeing GDP increase by a heady 72%.
Russia's has a flat income tax of 13%, a rate libertarians here in the US would kill for. As Prime Minister, Putin oversaw large scale military and police reform. His energy policy has affirmed Russia's position as a superpower. Putin supported high-tech industries such as the nuclear and defense industries. A rise in foreign investment has also contributed to a boom in the automotive industry.
Putin is so popular that he has become a pop cultural icon in Russia, with many commercial products named after him. All of this means that he has the domestic political support to push the envelope further. The Ukraine could just be his opening gambit.
You would think that Russia would not be interested in pursuing a second cold war, as the first one drove them broke. However, he is no doubt interested in expanding his country?s power and influence.
Hitler followed a similar course, gobbling up the Rhineland, the Sudetenland, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, Norway, and eventually France, until he vastly overstretched himself and his resources. Let?s hope that Putin doesn?t try the same. The problem is that this time, the aggressor country has 8,500 nuclear weapons with our address still on them.
You can count on Putin?s antics to keep S&P 500 market volatility (VIX), (VXX) at a permanently higher level. You don?t know what he is going to do next, but you know he will do something.
If he confines his visions of grandeur to Ukraine, we might just be able to skate by with a textbook 10% market correction. If he starts to make moves on the Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, all NATO members, then we are really back to another cold war. That would hit us with a massive recession as the ?Peace Dividend? gets returned to sender, and stock markets dive 25% or more.
That is a very sobering thought. Thank goodness I have huge short positions on.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Peter-the-Great.jpg435330Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-11 01:03:412014-04-11 01:03:41The Return of Peter the Great
Featured Trade:
(LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY, MAY 14 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON)
(INCLINE VILLAGE STRATEGY LUNCH REVIEW),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(2014 EUROPEAN STRATEGY LUNCHEONS)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-10 01:07:532014-04-10 01:07:53April 10, 2014
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