Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (INVESTING IN A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM), (AFK), (GAF), (EZA), (THE LONG VIEW ON EMERGING MARKETS), (EWZ), (RSX), (PIN), (FXI)
Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK)
SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF)
iShares MSCI South Africa Index (EZA)
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Index (EWZ)
Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)
PowerShares India (PIN)
iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $189.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store at www.madhedgefundtrader.com/category/luncheons/.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/San-Francisco-e1410363065903.jpg238359Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-05 23:03:222013-03-05 23:03:22April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon
How about a country whose leaders have stolen $400 billion in the last decade and have seen 300 foreign workers kidnapped? Another country lost four wars in the last 40 years. Still interested? How about a country that suffers one of the world?s highest AIDs rates, endures regular insurrections where all of the Westerners get massacred, and racked up 5 million dead in a continuous civil war?
Then, Africa is the place for you, the world?s largest source of gold, diamonds, chocolate, and cobalt! The countries above are Libya, Nigeria, Egypt, and the Congo. Below the radar of the investment community since the colonial days, the Dark Continent has recently been attracting the attention of large hedge funds and private equity firms.
Goldman Sachs has set up Emerging Capital Partners, which has already invested $2 billion there. China sees the writing on the wall, and has launched a latter day colonization effort, taking a 20% equity stake in South Africa?s Standard Bank, the largest on the continent. There are now thought to be over one million Chinese agricultural workers in Africa.
The angle here is that all of the terrible headlines above are in the price, that prices are very low, and the perceived risk is much greater than actual risk.
Price earnings multiples are low single digits, cash flows are huge, and returns of capital within two years are not unheard of. These numbers remind me of those found in Japan during the fifties, right after it lost WWII.
The reality is that Africa?s 900 million have unlimited demand for almost everything, and there is scant supply, with many firms enjoying local monopolies. The big plays are your classic early emerging market targets, like banking, telecommunications, electric power, and other infrastructure.
For example, in the last decade, the number of telephones has soared from 350,000 to 10 million. It?s like the early days of investing in China in the seventies, when the adventurous only played when they could double their money in two years, because the risks were so high.
This is definitely not for day traders. If you are willing to give up a lot of short term liquidity for a high long term return, then look at the Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK), which has 29% of its holdings in South Africa and 20% in Nigeria. There is also the SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF). For more of a rifle shot, entertain the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (EZA). Don?t rush out and buy these today. Instead, wait for emerging markets to come back in vogue. I will send you a trade alert when this is going to happen.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Tribal-Face.jpg217334Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-05 23:02:292013-03-05 23:02:29Investing in a State Sponsor of Terrorism
I managed to catch a few comments in the distinct northern accent of Jim O'Neil, the fabled analyst who invented the 'BRIC' term, and who has been kicked upstairs to the chairman's seat at Goldman Sachs International (GS) in London.
Jim thinks that it is still the early days for the space, and that these countries have another ten years of high growth ahead of them. As I have been pushing emerging markets since the inception of this letter in 2008, this is music to my ears.
By 2018 the combined GDP of the BRIC's; Brazil (EWZ), Russia (RSX), India (PIN), and China (FXI), will match that of the US. China alone will reach two thirds of the American figure for gross domestic product. All that?s required is for China to maintain a virile 8% annual growth rate for eight more years, while the US plods along at an arthritic 2% rate. China's most recent quarterly growth rate came in at a blistering 8%.
?BRIC? almost became the 'RIC' when O'Neil was formulating his strategy a decade ago. Conservative Brazilian businessmen were convinced that the new elected Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva would wreck the country with his socialist ways. He ignored them and Brazil became the top performing market of the G-20 since 2000. An independent central bank that adopted a strategy of inflation targeting was transformative.
This is not to say that you should rush out and load up on emerging markets tomorrow. American big cap stocks are the flavor of the day, and as long as this is the case, emerging markets will continue to blend in with the wall paper. Still, with growth rates triple or quadruple of our own, they will not stay ?resting? for long.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Puzzle-Pieces.jpg265325Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-05 23:01:272013-03-05 23:01:27The Long View on Emerging Markets
Contrary to widespread predications, the sun rose this morning and the world did not end. The overnight reduction in our defense spending did not prompt expansionist, vengeful Mexicans to try to retake California and Texas, kicking soccer balls all the way. Cigar chomping Cuban communists did not capture Florida. Hockey stick brandishing Canadians failed to even launch another punitive military excursion into upstate New York.
The more pedestrian predications failed to materialize, as well. Lines at airports were shorter than usual, as so many had delayed travel on the first day of The Great Sequestration. Planes did not fall out of the sky. It turns out that air traffic controllers are exempt from cuts, as are a lot of other key government services. Schools opened. Over the weekend, we learned that the actual disbursement of federal subsidies doesn?t slow for another six months.
Checking the San Francisco papers over the weekend, it looks like we?ll lose a million dollars here and two million there. In a state with a GDP of $2.7 trillion it doesn?t amount to spare pennies found under the sofa cushions by the cleaning lady. Virtually all military bases in the Bay Area were closed during the nineties, as they were so old and decrepit. Many of the rotting Quonset huts were hastily erected in WWII, and one red brick naval facility dated back 150 years. Even in conservative San Diego, the last bastion of defense spending in the Golden State, the pink slips going out are not even a blip on the radar.
California, which accounts for 15% of America?s population and 17% of the GDP, is remarkably immune from anything that happens in Washington. That?s because when it became a state in 1849, it took three months to get here by sailing ship around Cape Horn, or six months by wagon along the Santa Fe Trail. The distances were so great, the ties of dependence were never established, unlike in the East. But the wealth did pour out. The Union Army won the Civil War financed by California gold.
The financial markets crash didn?t crash either. The Dow average closed the day up 38 at 14,127. That is a mere handful of points off of a five-year high, and only 37 points short of the all time high of 14,164 set on October 9, 2007. If anything, the markets are crashing upwards. What gives?
This is turning out to be one of the ?emperor has no clothes? moments in financial history. The $84 billion sequestration amounts to only 32 basis points of US GDP, 2.3% of the total federal budget for 2013, and 8.4% of the budget deficit. That means $916 billion in budget deficit remains to stimulate the economy. In other words, it might cancel out the positive effect of Apple?s iPhone 5 launch on economic growth.
There are some parts of the country that will certainly feel the pain from sequestration. But these are in parts of the country that most Americans don?t care about. The worst hit will be in Washington DC itself, or within lobbyist lunching distance of the nations capital. That?s why defense spending accounts for 20% of state GDP in Virginia and Maryland, but only 2% in New York.
Let?s look at the positive effect of the sequester on the financial markets. The budget deficit has fallen substantially, arresting the fall of the Treasury bond market. We have seen the first substantial cuts in defense spending since the Soviet Union collapsed 20 years ago, enabling the? "peace dividend".
The sequestration does have the effect of cancelling out some of the stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve?s Ben Bernanke. Ben will simply respond by making up the difference through expanding quantitative easing and extending the zero interest rate policy. This is what financial markets see when they refuse to sell off.
I should add that my prescient forecast that sequestration would amount to a big nothing has been fabulous for the performance of my model portfolio, which is up 29% so far in 2013. In fact, it looks like this sequester is going so well, we should plan on having a second one.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Lion.jpg311580Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-05 09:07:272013-03-05 09:07:27The Great Yawn of 2013
The focus of this letter is to show people how to make money through investing in fast growing, highly profitable companies which have stiff, long-term macroeconomic winds at their backs. That means I ignore a large part of the US economy whose time has passed and are headed for the dustbin of history. According to the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the eight industries listed below are least likely to generate positive job growth in the next decade. As most of these stocks are already bombed out, it is way too late to short them. As an investor, you should consider this a 'no go' list. I have added my comments, not all of which should be taken seriously. 1) Realtors - Despite a halving of prices, and therefore commissions, the number of realtors is only down 10% from its 1.3 million peak in 2006. This business is dying? for a major rationalization. 2) Pharmaceuticals - With a number of blockbuster drugs seeing patents expire soon and going generic, the downsizing at the major firms has been ferocious. The survivors will merge to cut costs, sending more masses to the unemployment office. 3) Newspapers - these probably won't exist in five years, save the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, as five decades of hurtling technological advances have already shrunk the labor force by 90%. Go online, or go away. 4) Airline employees - This is your worst nightmare of an industry, as management has no idea what interest rates, fuel costs, or the economy will do, which are the largest inputs into their business. Pilots will eventually work for minimum wage just to keep their flight hours up. 5) Big telecom - Can you hear me now? Nobody uses landlines anymore, leaving these companies with giant rusting networks that are costly to maintain. Since cell phone market penetration is 90%, survivors are slugging it out through price competition, cost cutting, and all that annoying advertising. 6) State and Local Government - With employment still at levels private industry hasn't seen since the seventies, firing state and municipal workers will be the principal method of balancing ailing budgets. Expect class sizes to soar to 80, to put out your own damn fires, and to keep the 9 mm loaded and the back door booby-trapped for home protection. 7) Installation, Maintenance, and Repair - I have explained to my mechanic that the electric motor in my new Tesla S-1has only five moving parts, compared to 300 in my old clunker, and this won't be good for business. But he just doesn't get it. The winding down of our wars in the Middle East is about to dump a million more applicants into this sector. The last refuge of the trained blue-collar worker is about to get cleaned out. 8) Bank Tellers - Since the ATM made its debut in 1968, this profession has been on a long downhill slide. Banks have lost so much money in the financial crisis, they can't afford to hire humans any more. It hasn't helped that 283 banks have closed during the recession, with many survivors merging to cut costs (read fire more people). Your next bank teller may be a Terminator.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Arnold-Swartenegger.jpg322226Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-05 09:06:062013-03-05 09:06:06Industries You Will Never Hear About From Me
Featured Trade: (MARCH 6 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (THE DEATH OF GOLD, PART II), (GLD), (GDX), (GDM), (FXE), (UUP), (FXB), (GBB), (USO), (CU), (THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2030), (TESTIMONIAL)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
GOLD MINERS INDEX (GDM)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Tr (FXB)
iPath GBP/USD Exchange Rate ETN (GBB)
United States Oil (USO)
First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU)
I have been pounding the table trying to get readers out of gold since early December. Now, my friend at stockcharts.com, Mike Murphy, has produced a stunning series of charts showing that this may be more than just a short-term dip and another buying opportunity.
Mike explains that a number of traditional chart, technical, and intermarket signs are flashing serious warning signals. At the very least, we are going to test $1,500 an ounce sometime soon. If that doesn?t hold, then $1,250 is in the cards.
To make matters particularly fiendish for traders, we may see a false breakdown through $1,500 first, well into the 1,400?s, that sucks in tons of capitulation sellers before an uptrend resumes. It is a scenario that will be enough to test even the most devoted of gold bugs.
At risk is nothing less than the end of a bull market that is entering its 12th year. The shares of gold miners suggest that the demise of the bull market is already a foregone conclusion. The index for this group (GDM) has breached major support once again and is looking for a new four year low. Since this index usually correlates very highly with the barbarous relic, the grim writing is on the wall.
A strong dollar does not auger well for gold either. Look at the chart below, and you see the dollar basket (UUP) has punched through to an eight month high. Until two weeks ago, this was primarily a weak yen story. But since then, both the euro (FXE) and Sterling (FXB) have collapsed, adding fuel to the fire. And it is not just gold that is feeling the heat. The entire commodities space has been the pain trade, including oil (USO), copper (CU), and other hard assets.
There are a host of reasons why the yellow metal has suddenly become so unloved. The largest holder of the gold ETF (GLD), John Paulson, is getting big redemptions in his hedge fund, forcing him to sell. This is why the selling is so apparent in the paper gold markets, like the ETF?s, but not the physical.
India has suddenly seen its currency, the rupee, drop against the greenback. That reduces the buying power of the world?s largest gold importer. With years of pernicious deflation ahead of us, who needs a traditional inflation hedge like the yellow metal?
Here is the final nail in the coffin for gold. Look at the last chart of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis?s measurement of the broader monetary base. It shows that it has exploded to the upside in recent months. In the past, gold matched the rise in the money supply step for step. Now it?s not. If a market can?t rally on fabulous news, which it has obviously failed to do since the last QE was launched in September, then you sell the daylights out of it. That is what most traders believe.
The screaming conclusion here is that traders are pouring their money into stocks instead of gold. Now, paper trumps gold. Conditions for the barbarous relic will, therefore, probably get worse before they get better.
Ben Bernanke affirmed as much last week when he told Congress that quantitative easing would continue unabated for the foreseeable future. That means rising stocks and flat bonds, all of which are bad for gold. The bottom line here is that when gold makes its first run at $1,500, I am not going to jump in as a buyer.
Weekly December, 2011 to February, 2013
Adjusted Monetary Base
Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Gold-Man.jpg291292Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-04 09:39:212013-03-04 09:39:21The Death of Gold, Part II
A number of analysts, and even some of those in the real estate industry, are finally coming around to the depressing conclusion that there will never be a recovery in residential real estate. Long time readers of this letter know too well that I have been hugely negative on the sector since late 2005, when I unloaded all of my holdings. However, I believe that 'forever' may be on the extreme side. Personally, I believe there will be great opportunities in real estate starting in 2030.
Let's back up for a second and review where the great bull market of 1950-2007 came from. That's when a mere 50 million members of the 'greatest generation', those born from 1920 to 1945, were chased by 80 million baby boomers born from 1946-1962. There was a chronic shortage of housing, with the extra 30 million never hesitating to borrow more to pay higher prices. When my parents got married in 1949, they were only able to land a dingy apartment in a crummy Los Angeles neighborhood because he was an ex-Marine. This is where our suburbs came from.
Since 2005, the tables have turned. There are now 80 million baby boomers attempting to unload dwellings on 65 million generation Xer's who earn less than their parents, marking down prices as fast as they can. As a result, the Federal Reserve thinks that 35% of American homeowners either have negative equity, or less than 10% equity, which amounts to nearly zero after you take out sales commissions and closing costs. That comes to 42 million homes. Don't count on selling your house to your kids, especially if they are still living rent free in the basement.
The good news is that the next bull market in housing starts in 20 years. That's when 85 million Millennials, those born from 1988 to yesterday, start competing to buy homes from only 65 million gen Xer's. By then, house prices will be a lot cheaper than they are today in real terms. The next interest rate spike will probably knock another 25% off real estate prices. Think 1982 again.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be long gone, meaning that the 30 year conventional mortgage will cease to exist. All future home purchases will be financed with adjustable rate mortgages, forcing homebuyers to assume interest rate risk, as they already do in most of the developed world. With the US budget deficit problems persisting beyond the horizon, the home mortgage interest deduction is an endangered species, and its demise will chop another 10% off home values.
For you millennials just graduating from college now, this is a best case scenario. It gives you 15 years to save up the substantial down payment banks will require by then. You can then swoop in to cherry pick the best neighborhoods at the bottom of a 25-year bear market. People will no doubt tell you that you are crazy, that renting is the only safe thing to do, and that home ownership is for suckers. That's what people told me when I bought my first New York co-op in 1982 at one tenth its current market price.
Just remember to sell by 2060, because that's when the next intergenerational residential real estate collapse is expected to ensue. That will leave the next, yet to be named generation, holding the bag, as your grandparents are now.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/House-Fire.jpg242360Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-04 09:33:112013-03-04 09:33:11The Real Estate Market in 2030
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