“Apple is an electric utility now. People don’t want them changing the wall sockets. People will pay them not to change,” said Roger McNamee, cofounder of venture capitalist Elevation Partners.
“Apple is an electric utility now. People don’t want them changing the wall sockets. People will pay them not to change,” said Roger McNamee, cofounder of venture capitalist Elevation Partners.
Global Market Comments
February 21, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DEATH OF THE FINANCIAL ADVISOR)
About one-third of my readers are professional financial advisors who earn their crust of bread telling clients how to invest their retirement assets for a fixed fee.
They used to earn a share of the brokerage fees they generated. After stock commissions went to near zero, they started charging a flat 1.25% a year on the assets they oversaw.
So it is with some sadness that I have watched this troubled industry enter a long-term secular decline, which seems to be worsening by the day.
Some miscreants steered clients into securities solely based on the commissions they earned, which could reach 8% or more, whether it made any investment sense or not. Some of the instruments the recommended were nothing more than blatant rip-offs.
Knowing hundreds of financial advisors personally, I can tell you that virtually all are hardworking professionals who go the extra mile to safeguard customer assets while earning incremental positive returns.
That is no easy task given the exponential speed with which the global economy is evolving. Yesterday’s “window and orphans” safe bets can transform overnight into today’s reckless adventure.
Look no further than coal, energy, and the auto industry. Once a mainstay of conservative portfolios, all of these sectors have or came close to filing for bankruptcy.
Even my own local power utility, Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PGE), filed for Chapter 11 in 2001 because they couldn’t game the electric power markets as well as Enron, and again in 2019 because of liability stemming from wildfires.
Some advisors even go the extent of scouring the Internet for a trade mentoring service that can ease their burden, like the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, to get their clients that extra edge.
Traditional financial managers have been under siege for decades.
Commissions have been cut, expenses increased, and mysterious “fees” have started showing up on customer statements.
Those who work for big firms, like UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sacks, UBS, Merrill Lynch, and Charles Schwab, have seen health insurance coverage cut back and deductibles raised.
The safety of custody with big firms has always been a myth. Remember, all of these guys would have gone under during the 2008-09 financial crash if they hadn’t been bailed out by the government. With deregulation now rampant, you can count on it happening again.
The quality of the research has taken a nosedive, with sectors, like small caps, no longer covered. My research is now focused on, you guessed it, the Magnificent Seven.
What remains offers nothing but waffle and indecision. Many analysts are afraid to commit to a real recommendation for fear of getting sued, or worse, scaring away lucrative investment banking business.
And have you noticed that after Dodd-Frank, two-thirds of brokerage reports are made up of disclosures?
Many advisors have, in fact, evolved over the decades from money managers to asset gatherers and relationship managers.
Their job is now to steer investors into “safe” funds managed by third parties that have to carry all of the liability for bad decisions (buying energy plays in 2014?).
The firms have effectively become toll-takers, charging a commission for anything that moves.
They have become so risk averse that they have banned participation in anything exotic, like options, option spreads, (VIX) trading, any 2X leveraged ETFs, or inverse ETFs of any kind. When dealing in esoterica is permitted, the commissions are doubled.
Even my own newsletter has to get a compliance review before it is distributed to clients, often provided by third parties to smaller firms.
“Every year they try to chip away at something”, one beleaguered advisor confided to me with despair.
Big brokers often hype their own services with expensive advertising campaigns that unrealistically elevate client expectations.
Modern media doesn’t help either.
I can’t tell you how many times I have had to convince advisors not to dump all their stocks at a market bottom because of something they heard on TV, saw on the Internet, or read in a competing newsletter warning that financial Armageddon was imminent.
Customers are force-fed the same misinformation. One of my main jobs is to provide advisors with the fodder they need to refute the many “end of the world” scenarios that seem to be in continuous circulation.
In fact, a sudden wave of such calls has proven to be a great “bottoming” indicator for me.
Personally, I don’t expect to see another major financial crisis until 2032 at the earliest, and by then, I’ll probably be dead.
Because of all of the above, about half of my financial advisor readers have confided in me a desire to go independent in the near future, if they are not already.
Sure, they won’t be ducking all these bullets. But at least they will have an independent business they can either sell at a future date or pass on to a succeeding generation.
Overheads are far easier to control when you own your own business, and the tax advantages can be substantial.
A secular trend away from non-discretionary to discretionary account management is a decisive move in this direction.
There seems to be a great separation of the wheat from the chaff going on in the financial advisory industry.
Those who can stay ahead of the curve, both with the markets and their own business models, are soaking up all the assets. Those who can’t are unable to hold on to enough money to keep their businesses going concerns.
Let’s face it, in the modern age, every industry is being put through a meat grinder. Thanks to hyper-accelerating technology, business models are changing by the day.
Just be happy you’re not a doctor trying to figure out Obamacare.
Those individuals who can reinvent themselves quickly will succeed. Those that won’t will quickly be confined to the dustbin of history.
It’s Not as Good as it Used to Be
“The car business is hell,” said founder Elon Musk, when announcing he would sleep in the Fremont Tesla factory until Model S production reached 2,500 units a week.
Global Market Comments
February 20, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HEDGE YOUR CURRENCY RISK),
(FXA), (UUP),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Let’s say you absolutely love a stock but despise the currency of the country it comes from.
The United States comes to mind. The US Federal Reserve is about to commence with a policy of cutting interest rates that could last a year. That means the greenback is about to become the weakest currency in the world. Look at the ten-year chart below, and you’ll see that a major double bottom for the Aussie may be taking place.
Most American technology stocks are likely to gain 30% or more over the next two years. However, it’s entirely possible that the US dollar declines by 30% or more against the Australian (FXA) and Canadian (FXC) dollars during the same period. Making 30% and then losing 30% leaves you with precisely zero profit.
There is a way to avoid this dilemma that would vex Solomon. Simply hedge out your currency risk. I’ll use the example of the Australian dollar, as we have recently had a large influx of new subscribers from the land down under.
Let’s say you want to buy AUS$100,000 worth of Apple (AAPL), the world’s most widely owned stock.
Since Apple is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, its shares are denominated in US dollars. When you buy Apple in Australia, your local broker will automatically buy the US dollars for your account to settle this trade in the US, taking out a small commission along the way. You are now long US dollars, thus creating a currency risk.
Getting rid of this currency risk is quite simple. You need to offset your US dollar long with a US dollar short of equal value. Long dollars/short dollars give the Australian investor a currency-neutral position. The US dollar can go to hell in a handbasket, and you won’t care.
There are several financial instruments with which you can do this. Buying Invesco Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA) is the easiest. This ETF invests 100% of its assets in long Australian dollar/short US dollar futures and overnight cash positions.
I’ll do the math for you on the final hedged position, assuming that the Australian dollar is worth 70 US cents.
BUY AUS$100,000 long US dollars X US$0.70 cents/dollar = US$70,000.
US$70,000/$210 per share for Apple = 333 Apple shares
BUY US$70,000/$70 (FXA) price = US$1,000 shares of the (FXA)
Thus, by owning AUS$100,000 shares of Apple shares and 1,000 shares of the (FXA) you have completely removed the currency risk in owning Apple. You have, in effect, turned Apple into an Australian dollar-denominated stock. Apple can rise, the US dollar will fall, and you will make twice as much money in Australian dollars.
There are a few problems with this precise trade. The liquidity in the (FXA) is not great, especially during US trading hours. Understandably, the bulk of Aussie liquidity takes place during Australian business hours.
There are other instruments with which you can hedge out the currency risk of Apple or any other US dollar-denominated investment.
You can take out your own short dollar position in the futures market. You can ask your bank to create a short position in the US dollar in the cash market. Or, you can simply ask your broker to hedge out your US dollar currency risk, for which they will charge you another small commission.
Hedging out currency risk is not only free; the market will pay you to do it. That’s because Australian dollar overnight interest rates at 1.00% are lower than US dollar overnight interest rates at 2.50%. By shorting the Aussie against the buck, you get to keep this 1.50% interest differential.
You don’t have to be Australian to want your Apple shares denominated in Australian dollars. In fact, hedge funds do this all day long. They pursue a strategy of keeping their long position in the world’s strongest securities (Apple) and their short positions in the world’s weakest securities (the US dollar). This, by the way, is also the strategy of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. It’s called “global long/short macro.”
The better ones often make money on both sides of the equation, with the longs rising and the shorts falling. You can do the same on your own personal online trading platform.
I should urge a word of caution here. What happens if you hedge out your US dollar risk, and the dollar continues to appreciate? Then you will get none of the gains from that appreciation and will end up losing money in Australian dollars if Apple shares remain unchanged.
In the worst case, if both Apple and the Aussie could go down, this accelerates your losses. So, currency hedging can be a double-edged sword. Yes, this may be irrational given the fundamentals of Aussie and Apple. But as any experienced long-term trader will tell you, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.”
Many thanks to John Maynard Keynes.
Thanks for the advice, John.
Actually, I just got started with investing as I’ve been living close to the edge raising kids all these years. I had $100K that I could float for a few months so I had it in the Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (ETY) until my old golf buddy/broker told me about you and your Tesla (TSLA) advice.
So, I went all-in on December 30. It’s the best move I ever made. I’m an entrepreneur/risk-taker so I bought as much Apple (AAPL) and NVIDIA (NVDA) on the way down as I could, which obviously turned out far better than I ever hoped.
So, like I said, it seems now or never for me. So, I subscribed to your Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter and I’m going to do the best I can with it.
Thanks a “million.”
Greg
Las Vegas, NV
Global Market Comments
February 19, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(AND MY PREDICTION IS….),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own three in-the-money options positions that expires on Friday, February 21, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
This involves the:
Current Capital at Risk
Risk On
(NVDA) 2/$90-$95 call spread 10.00%
(VST) 2/$100-$110 call spread 10.00%
Risk Off
(TSLA) 2/$540-$550 put spread -10.00%
Total Net Position 10.00%
Total Aggregate Position 30.00%
Provided that we don’t have a monster move down in the market in two trading days, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.
So far, so good.
I’ll take the example of the (TSLA) 2/$540-$550 put spread.
Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $10.00 expiration value - $8.80 cost = $1.20 net profit
(12 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $1.20 profit per option)
= $1,440 or 13.64% in 22 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning, February 24, and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally, machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours or minutes until expiration on Friday. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next quarter end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
You Can’t Do Enough Research
Take those predictions, forecasts, and prognostications with so many grains of salt. They have a notorious track record for being completely wrong, even when made by the leading experts in their fields. In preparing for my autumn lecture series, I came across the following nuggets and thought I’d share them with you. There are some real howlers.
1876 “This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to
be seriously considered as a means of communication.”
--Western Union internal memo.
1895 “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.”
--Lord Kelvin, president of the Royal Society.
1927 "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
--H.M. Warner, founder of Warner Brothers.
1943 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
--Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM.
1962 “We don't like their sound, and guitar music
is on the way out.”
--Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
1981 “640 kilobytes of memory ought to be enough for anybody.”
--Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft.
Thomas Watson of IBM
The Beatles
A Younger Bill Gates
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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