While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $15.20
Premium Collected - $2.79
AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $1.78
THC Long at $14.63
Short Dec $15.50 call @ $0.30
Premium Collected - $1.70
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Even with a sell off to start last week, the S & P 500 managed to close higher for the week.
The week opened at 2,657.19 and dropped to a low of 2,624.75 before rallying back to close at 2,651.50.
The low for the week came right in the support area from the weekly bar from the prior week. As you know, the area we were looking for support was in the 2,622 to 2,628 area.
Having said that, the week did close higher, but it closed below the open, which is bearish.
2,654 is a level to watch from last week's price bar. For the market to move higher, it will need to clear this level.
The short term 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain firmly in uptrends. This suggests that the market should continue higher.
The VIX certainly performed as expected. It dropped Friday to close at 9.58. This was just 20 cents above the 9.38 objective we were looking for.
The short term 30 minute chart for the VIX has moved into a downtrend. And the 60 minute chart is close to crossing into a downtrend as well. If it can, expect the VIX to continue down.
But, the 9.38 level has been strong support for the VIX. Watch this level this week to see if it holds. If it does, a pullback could happen. A break under the 9.38 level and the market should continue higher.
Earnings are slowing down. We will hear from COST and ADBE this Thursday.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94
Minor level: 10.55
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38 **
Minor level: 8.99 <
Minor level: 8.20
Major level: 7.81
I suggested Friday that the VIX should retest the 9.38 level and that is what happened. The low was 9.43, or 4 cents above the level.
The question now is will the 9.38 level hold?
Though this level has been strong support for quite sometime, a break under it would not shock me in this market.
To break lower, the VIX will need two closes under 8.99. And 8.59 should be minor support.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,685.55
Minor level: 2,666.05
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,646.53 **
Minor level: 2,626.98
Major level: 2,617.20
Minor level: 2,607.43
Minor level: 2,587.88
Major level: 2,578.10
A retest of the 2,656.30 level looks quite possible.
2,648.90 should be minor support. If the market breaks under that level, I would expect support at 2,636.70.
QQQ:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91 **
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.34
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
The QQQ closed at 154.70. This now implies a retest of the 156.25 level.
153.91 should offer support. Short term momentum remains bullish.
IWM:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 **
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78 <
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 151.41 on Friday. A close today above 150.78 would indicate the IWM should test 153.13.
150.78 should be minor support. 152.34 is minor resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13 <
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
The TLT closed at 126.69 Friday. 126.56 is still a minor support level.
127.34 is minor resistance.
GLD:
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 < <
Minor level: 121.10 ***
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 118.48, closing again under the 118.75 objective.
A bounce could happen, but expect resistance at the 121.88 level.
If the GLD breaks under 117.97, it should head lower.
XLE:
Major level: 73.44
Minor level: 72.66
Minor level: 71.09
Major level: 70.31
Minor level: 69.92
Minor level: 69.14 **
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 68.36
Minor level: 67.58
Major level: 67.19
The XLE closed at 69.28, after dropping to a low of 66.69.
A close today above 69.14 implies a move up to 70.31. 68.75 should offer support.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16 <
Minor level: 84.96 **
Minor level: 84.55
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 84.59. It dropped to within 20 cents of the 84.38 level.
Still looking for support at 84.38. So, watch this level again today. A break under this level would tell us the FXY is heading lower.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 175, 171.88, 168.75, 165.63, 162.50, and 159.38.
Apple closed at 169.37.
A run up to 171.88 is likely. And support should be at 168.75.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, LMT, FDX, FLT, AET, MCD, BLUE, SAGE, WYNN, CLX, CAT, CBOE, UTX, CRI, RH, RL, PSX, VLO
Bearish Stocks: AGN, XEC, EOG, CRUS, APC, APA, NFX, AKR, PI, CXW, WU, FNSR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
