While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
TEVA Long at $9.78
TEVA Short Dec 20th - $10 Call - $0.26
.........................................................................................
The market continued to follow through to the downside yesterday after Monday's sell-off.
For the day, the S & P 500 closed 3.44 points to the downside. The day closed out at 3,132.52.
The daily bar made a new low as we expected. The low for the day was 3,126.09, which was just above the major level where we expected support.
In other words, the market tested the 3,125 level again. Watch this level again today for support.
The daily range was only 16.03 points. The daily average true range is now 21.47, so the range contracted to 75% of the average.
This just shows that the selling pressure was not particularly strong.
The daily price bar closed at 40% of the range of the bar, which does suggest that the low should be violated before the high.
The key levels for today will be 3,134 and the close of 3,132. If the market can break above this level, look for it to continue higher.
And if the market does make a move higher, then monitor the high of 3,142.12. A violation of the high would also suggest the market should move higher.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 3 points higher.
Support from last week's weekly bar should still be in the 3,108 to 3,110 area.
COST reports earnings Thursday after the close. And ADBE reports Thursday after the close as well.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41 **
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed out at 15.68 yesterday. The VIX closed out just above the 15.63 level.
Watch the 15.63 level today. A break under it and the VIX should continue lower.
The VIX closed out yesterday right at the upper band on the 60 minute chart. The upper band is 16.08.
If the VIX cannot clear this level, I would expect a drop.
Technical support is at 14.60. And watch the 16.41 level in the upside.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 < Hit
Minor level: 3,085.95 ***
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P closed at 3,132.52. The S & P closed about 7 points above the 3,125 level.
3,134.76 is a minor level. This should now be resistance. If the S & P can clear 3,134.76, it should head higher. And the major 3,125 level should be support.
And the minor 3,105 level should offer support. Watch the major 3,125 level today.
Technical support is in the 3,122 area.
QQQ:
Major level: 206.26
Minor level: 205.48
Minor level: 203.91 **
Major level: 203.13 HIT
Minor level: 202.35 **
Minor level: 200.78
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 199.22
Minor level: 197.77
Major level: 196.88
The QQQ closed at 203.90. It closed the day out one cent under the 203.91 level. Watch to see if the QQQ can clear this level. If it can, it should head higher.
203.13 should be major support.
203.20 is a minor technical support level. Watch for support at this level on a pullback.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 Hit
Minor level: 160.94 **
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 162.61. The IWM took out the major 162.50 level and is trading right at it. It continues to hold this level.
Watch the minor 164.06 on the upside and 160.94 on the downside.
Minor technical support is now at 161.40.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 138.66. Expectation is still for a drop to 137.
139.85 should still be resistance. Technical resistance is around 139. And yesterday's high was 139.35.
Still looking for resistance on the upside.
If the TLT breaks under 137.50, I would expect it to continue lower.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 137.97. Watch the 140.63 level on the upside. The GLD needs to clears it to head higher. And watch to see if the GLD breaks under 137.50. The GLD is now within 47 cents of it.
A break under the major 137.50 level and it should head lower.
Technical resistance is at 138.30. And the minor 138.28 level should be resistance as well. The GLD would have to clear this area to head higher.
The key level is 134.38 on the downside. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38 <
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.77. The XLE closed back above the major 59.38 level.
At this point, the minor 60.16 level is the key level on the upside. Two closes above this level and it should head up to 62.50.
59.38 should be support and technical support is at 59.20.
The daily chart is getting close to crossing into an uptrend.
AAPL:
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 277.35
Minor level: 269.54 **
Major level: 265.63 HIT!
Minor level: 261.72
Minor level: 253.91
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 246.88
Minor level: 240.63
Major level: 237.50
Apple closed at 268.48. Apple closed under the 269.54 level, so it would still need two closes above 269.54, to move up to 281.
Watch the major 265.63 level. If this level cannot hold as support, I would expect a drop to 261.72.
Technical support should now be in the 265 area. Short term trends are bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, SHOP, HUM, MLM, ZBRA, VRTX, BABA, CME, AMP, MSFT, HSY, UHS, KMB, ALNY, RCL, DRI, EA
Bearish Stocks: FDX, AAP, FFIV, XLNX, PLCE, CXS, SAGE, ALB, OLLI
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
