While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
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THC Long at $14.63
Short Dec $15.50 call @ $0.30
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The S & P 500 continues to rise, closing at 2,659.99, up 8.39 points on the day. This puts the market back above the major 2,656.30 level.
Closing above 2,656.30 creates a few positive scenarios for the market.
The first of which is that I would expect another run at 2,656 if the market should pullback.
And the second is that 2,646.53 should be support.
To move up to the next level, the S & P 500 will need two closes above 2,666.05. Should that happen, the objective becomes 2,695.30.
We also have the support area from last week's weekly price bar, which is 2,654.
The short term 30 minute and 60 minute charts continue to remain firmly in uptrends. This suggests that the market should continue higher.
What was historic yesterday was the VIX closing under 9.38. It actually closed four cents under the major support level.
At this point, I would expect resistance at 10.94 and 12.50.
Today begins the two day Fed meeting, where we will hear from the Fed tomorrow at 2:00 regarding raising interest rates.
A rate hike is widely anticipated.
Earnings are slowing down. We will hear from COST and ADBE this Thursday.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94
Minor level: 10.55
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38 **
Minor level: 8.99 <
Minor level: 8.20
Major level: 7.81
With the VIX closing just under the major 9.38 level, I would expect resistance at 10.16.
To break lower, the VIX will need two closes under 8.99. And 8.59 should be minor support.
The short term 60 minute chart for the VIX has just moved into a downtrend. This suggests more movement to the downside.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,685.55
Minor level: 2,666.05 **
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,646.53 **
Minor level: 2,626.98
Major level: 2,617.20
Minor level: 2,607.43
Minor level: 2,587.88
Major level: 2,578.10
The S & P 500 did retest the 2,656.30 and managed to close above it.
2,648.90 should still be minor support. If the S & P can clear 2,661.11, I would expect a move up to 2,656.
QQQ:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91 **
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.34
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
The QQQ closed at 155.90. Yesterday's high came within 30 cents of the 156.25 level.
155.47 should offer minor support. Short term momentum remains bullish.
IWM:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 **
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78 <
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 151.35. The IWM should test 153.13.
150.78 should be minor support. 153.13 is minor resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13 <
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
The TLT closed at 126.43. If the TLT breaks under 126.17, I would expect it to drop lower.
127.34 is minor resistance.
For the short term, 126.17 is the key price level. Two closes under that level and the TLT should drop to 125.
GLD:
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 117.96
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
The GLD closed at 118.01, closing for the third day under the 118.75 objective.
To move lower, the GLD will need two closes under 117.96.
Short term, the GLD is oversold and a bounce could happen.
XLE:
Major level: 73.44
Minor level: 72.66
Minor level: 71.09
Major level: 70.31
Minor level: 69.92
Minor level: 69.14 **
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 68.36
Minor level: 67.58
Major level: 67.19
The XLE closed at 69.78. 70.31 should be the objective.
Short term momentum has shifted to the upside.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16 <
Minor level: 84.96 **
Minor level: 84.55
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 84.55. It is still within 20 cents of the 84.38 level.
Still looking for support at 84.38. So, watch this level again today. A break under this level would tell us the FXY is heading lower.
Setting up for a bullish move.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 175, 171.88, 168.75, 165.63, 162.50, and 159.38.
Apple closed at 172.67. A higher close today and Apple should test 175.
171.88 should now be support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, LMT, FDX, FLT, AET, MCD, BLUE, SAGE, WYNN, CLX, CAT, CBOE, UTX, CRI, RH, RL, PSX, VLO
Bearish Stocks: AGN, XEC, EOG, CRUS, APC, APA, NFX, AKR, PI, CXW, WU, FNSR
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
