While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
GOGO? Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected? $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected? $.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $.48
FEYE Long at $13.65
Short Dec 16th-$14 Call - $.40
DDD Long at $15.16
Short Dec 16th-$15.50 Call - $.24
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The DOW is closing in on the 20,000 level, and is within 100 points of it.? And the S & P 500 is within 30 points of 2,300.
The speed of this last move is really quite amazing.? The last pivot low was 2,083.79, which means that this last swing has moved up 193.74 points.
And that is since November 4th.
There is no question this market is overbought, but it is also a situation where trying to trade counter trend would be counter productive.? That?s why I had urged you not to attempt to short this market.? Markets can remain overbought a lot longer than you think they can. I know at least one member who took that advice, because he thanked me for it.
The point is we cannot argue with the markets. They are the only ones who are right.
We just try to measure the markets to determine if the risk is low, or high for that matter. That is one of the purposes of the resistance levels.? They give us clear signals as to whether the move should continue or fail and clear levels of support.
Then we can use other tools to help measure where we are in the move.? For example, I like to look at the bullish % index.? On StockCharts, you can plot with the symbol $BPSPX.
Right now it reads 71.40%.? This is still not oversold. It is deemed oversold when it exceeds 80%.
The other indicator I track is the % of stocks above their 200 day average.? The symbol for that is $SPXA200R.
At the moment, it reads 72.40%.? So, that is not overbought either.
Very rarely have I seen markets top out without these indicators reaching extreme levels.
This afternoon we will hear from the Fed regarding interest rates. The announcement will be made at 2:00 EST.
Most market participants are expecting a rate hike.? In fact, it certainly appears factored into the TLT already.? I think the shock would be if the Fed stood still. And most people will be closely listening to future actions by the Fed.
Regardless, I would expect excess volatility.
Continue to monitor the levels for entry points.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level ? 14.06
Minor level ? 13.67
Minor level ? 12.89
Major level - 12.50
Minor level ? 12.11*
Minor level ? 11.33
Major level ? 10.94
Major level ?? 9.38 ***
The VIX closed at 12.72.? Even though it has traded in a narrow range, it still has not closed above 12.89.
No question the VIX is at long term support.? Be aware a spike could come.
?
$SPX:
Major level ? 2,281.30
Minor level ? 2,273.48 **
Minor level ? 2,257.82 **
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,242.18
Minor level - 2,226.62
Major level - 2,218.80
The S & P 500 closed back above the 2,257.82 level.? A close today above that level and the S & P 500 should try to move up to 2,281.30.
Yesterday?s high got above 2,273, but it closed under it.? Still minor resistance at 2,273.48.
QQQ:?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10
Minor level - 119.53 ***
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97
Minor level - 116.41
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.84
The QQQ came within 77 cents of the 121.88 level, which is the objective.
119.53 should still be support. 120.70 could offer minor resistance.
TLT:?
Major level ? 125.00
Minor level ? 124.22
Minor level ? 122.66
Major level ? 121.88
Minor level ? 121.09
Minor level ? 119.53
Major level ? 118.75 **
Minor level -? 117.96 *
Minor level ? 116.41
Major level ? 115.62
Longer term objective is down to 112.?? But, the TLT could be volatile with the Fed announcement.
118.75 should be resistance.? 117.97 minor support.
GLD: ?
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 111.72
Minor level: 110.16 **
Major level: 109.38 **
Major level: 106.25
109.38 should be the objective and is a major level for the GLD.? If the GLD closes two days under 109.38, this would indicate a further drop on the GLD.? Watch to see if the GLD drops under 109.38.
The daily chart is close to crossing into a downtrend.? When that happens, I would expect the violation of the 109 level.
110.94 should be minor resistance.
XLE:
Major level ? 78.13
Minor level ? 76.56 **
Minor level ? 75.78
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53
Holding at the 78.13 level.? 76.56 should be minor support.? 78.91 should be resistance.? Continue to buy against support.
FXY:
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94 **
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77 **
Major level: 84.38
Major level: 82.81
The FXY closed just under the 84.77 level. 84.38 is the objective.?
?Minor resistance should be at 83.98.? 83.59 minor support.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 118.75, 115.63, 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
The 60 minute chart crossed into an uptrend.? Look for entry to get long.? A pullback to 112.50 would be a great entry.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, GS, SPY, FDX, IBM, BA, CB, ACN, CLB, UPS, CVX, JACK, AGU, WBA, TIF, RS, ETN
Bearish Stocks:? ILMN, PRGO, TEVA, MAT, AKRX
Be sure to check earnings release dates
