While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
MFA Long at $4.20
Premium Collected $0.95
BOX Long at $17.65
BOX Short Dec 18th - $18 call @ $.25
Premium Collected $1.30
PS Long at $16.84
PS Short Dec 18th - $17.50 Call @ $.55
HEAR Long at $19.60
HEAR Short Dec 19th - $20 call @ $.65
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You should have closed out the $60 call on GILD on Friday. If you traded the suggested 6 lot on the original debit spread, the total loss should be around $700.
This is why we limit these trades to 1% of the portfolio. Unfortunately, they don't always move in our direction.
Friday, the S & P 500 managed to close 4.64 points lower. The day closed out at 3,663.46.
The range for the day was only 32.51 points. This once again was a contraction. And with the daily average true range now reading 42.43 points, this worked out to 77% of the average.
But, for the day, the S & P closed at 92% of the range of the daily bar.
This does suggest that the odds favor that Friday's high of 3,665.91 should be violated before the low of 3,633.40.
The support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 3,660 area. Under this area, there is support around 3,650.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 27 points higher.
This projects to an open around 3,690 or about 25 points above Friday's high. So, the close projection should be satisfied right in the open.
And watch the 3,678 area on a pullback. If this area does not hold, look for a gap fill.
The projected open would put the market to within 60 points of our 3,749.80 objective.
For the week, the S & P closed 35.66 points lower.
And the weekly bar closed at 38 of the range of the weekly bar. The weekly price bar also contracted.
The weekly range was 79 points, which was 61% of the weekly average true range.
With the weekly price closing at 38% of the range of the weekly bar, the odds favor the weekly low being violated before the high.
And the projected open of around 3,690 would put the market around 22 points below the weekly high of 3,712.39.
So, watch the high on a continuation move. Taking it out would then void out the expectation that the low would be tested.
The weekly support area is in the 3,673 to 3,679 area.
Earnings do continue this week, but the companies reporting are slowing down as we head towards the end of this earnings season.
JBL reports Thursday after the close, along with FDX. DRI and WGO report Friday before the open.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66 **
Major level: 21.88 <
Minor level: 21.10 **
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
The VIX closed at 23.31. The VIX closed .79 points higher. Yesterday's high went to 25.14 or about 14 cents above the major 25 level, before dropping to close under the minor 24.22 level.
This now suggests that if the VIX closes under 24.22 today, it should drop to 21.88.
Technical resistance is around 24. If it takes out this level, then the midband on the 60 minute chart, which is 25.87 should be resistance.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,749.80 <
Minor level: 3,710.75
Minor level: 3,632.65 **
Major level: 3,593.60 <
Minor level: 3,554.55
Minor level: 3,476.45
Major level: 3,437.40
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
The S & P closed at 3,663.46. The S & P closed 4.64 points lower.
Support should still be at the 3,632.65 level. Watch the 3,710.75 level on the upside. The market should open around 20 points under this level.
The minor 3,701.75 level is also right around last week's high and you know the implication if the market can clear this level.
The 3,666 area should be a technical support area.
QQQ:
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 310.94
Minor level: 307.81
Major level: 306.25
Minor level: 304.69
Minor level: 301.56 **
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 298.44
Minor level: 295.31
Major level: 293.75
Minor level: 292.19
Minor level: 289.06
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 285.94
The QQQ closed at 301.85. The QQQ closed .67 lower.
The QQQ did reclaim 301.56 level. And Friday, the QQQ closed above it. The QQQ should now test 306.
The 300 level should be support.
Technical support is also around 300. And technical resistance is around 305.
IWM:
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 HIT
Minor level: 181.25
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
The IWM closed at 190.30. The IWM closed .94 lower on the day.
The objective for the IWM should still be up to 193.75.
And it would suggest that support should be at the 187.50 level.
190 should be technical support.
TLT:
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03 **
Major level: 156.25 Hit
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
The TLT closed at 158.77. It closed .56 higher. This was the first close above the 157.03.
A close today above 157.03 and the TLT should test 159.38.
Watch the 156.25 level. A break under this level and the TLT should head lower.
The TLT cleared the midband on the 60 minute chart. This level is 158.27 and should now be support.
A break under the midband and it should head lower.
GLD:
Minor level: 182.03
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 174.25
Minor level: 172.70 **
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
The GLD closed at 172.49. The GLD closed .32 higher on the day. The GLD closed back under the minor 172.70 level.
Watch the 171.88 level today. A break under this level and the GLD should head lower.
The GLD is under the midband on its 60 minute chart. That price level is 175.21.
This level should be resistance.
And watch the 175 area for technical resistance as well.
XLE:
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.95
Minor level: 41.40 **
Major level: 40.63 < HIT
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
The XLE closed at 41.12. The XLE closed .48 lower on the day. This was the first close above 41.40. The XLE will still need two closes above 41.40 to move higher.
Watch for support at the 40.63 level.
Technical support is around 41.
AAPL:
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 134.38
Minor level: 128.13
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 115.63
Major level: 112.50
Minor level: 109.13
Minor level: 103.13
Major level: 100.00
Apple closed at 122.41. Apple closed $.83 lower.
Target now should still be up to the 125 level.
Watch for support at 121.88.
The 121.00 area should provide technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TTD, NOW, ROP, RNG, TWLO, SPOT, ROKU, PANW, SEDG, CVNA, GS, SQ, TTWO, DIS, ETSY, BAND, FIVN, BIDU, JNJ, PKI, MTCH
Bearish Stocks: AMT, RETA, ETR, PNW, D, ED, K, BMY, CNC, SO, ELS, NUVA