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With the shortened Holiday trading schedule, this is the first update since last Tuesday.
Before I begin today's update, I do want to give you the trading schedule for this week. The markets will of course be closed on Wednesday, January 1st for the New Year Holiday.
Tuesday is a full session.
As I get back to writing this update, it seems the market just continues to do as expected.
Mind you, it is a slow grind up to the 3,281.20 price objective. And since the last update, the S & P 500 has moved up 16.74 points.
Tuesday closed out at 3,223.38 and Friday closed at 3,240.02.
Friday's close was within 2 points of the minor 3,242.15 level. Of course, the market will have to clear this level to head higher.
The support area from Friday's daily price bar is in the 3,240 to 3,244 area.
The long-awaited market pullback seems to be fooling quite a few investors.
But, in the last week, the S & P 500 and the VIX have both closed to the upside for three days. The last time this happened was last Friday and the VIX spiked up 6.17%.
And of course, I have written about how the daily ranges for the S & P have contracted on the move higher and that certainly continued Friday. The intraday range for the Friday was only 13.56 points.
The daily average true range is now 17.81 points, so once again the daily range was less than the average.
And the bullish percent index is now 77.80. This, of course, is at an extreme overbought level.
But, the most important factor is price action. And at this point, the market had not seen a strong bearish reversal bar.
This may change soon because all major markets are close to their upper bollinger bands on their 60 minute charts.
The upper band on the 60 minute chart for the S & P is 3,264.54. This should be a level of resistance.
For the week, the S & P closed 18.80 points higher. And the weekly range was only 27.42 points. This was less than half the weekly average true range, which now reads 62.63.
With a shortened holiday trading week, you would expect a range contraction and that is certainly what happened last week.
The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 3,233 to 3,234 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 3 points higher.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72 **
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed Friday at 13.43. This was a bounce of 6.17% and the first close above the minor 13.28 level.
Watch the minor 13.28 level today. For this bull move to push higher, the VIX will need to drop under 13.28.
Another way to look at this is if the VIX closes above 13.28 today, it should head higher. And therefore, the market should drop.
11.72 should still be support. A break under it and the VIX should head down.
SPX:
Major level: 3,281.20 <
Minor level: 3,242.15 **
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
The S & P closed at 3,240.02. "The short term target should be to the minor 3,242.15 level." This was from the last update and now the S & P is within two points of it.
The S & P will need to clear this level to head higher. If it can, I would expect the move up to 3,281.20.
3,203.10 should still be minor support.
Technical support is around 3,220.
QQQ:
Major level: 215.65
Minor level: 214.87
Minor level: 213.30 **
Major level: 212.50 <<
Minor level: 211.74
Minor level: 210.17
Major level: 209.39
Minor level: 208.61
Minor level: 207.04
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 205.48
Minor level: 203.91
Major level: 203.13
The QQQ closed at 213.61. The QQQ took out the 212.50 level, we were looking for. And a close today above 213.30 and the QQQ should test 215.65.
At this point, support should be at 212.50. And 211.74 should now be minor support as well.
The 211 should offer technical support.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 165.86. The target for the IWM should be up to 168.75 level.
The minor 164.06 level should offer support. If the IWM cannot clear 167.19 it should continue down.
162.50 should offer strong support. 165 should be technical support.
Short term charts remain bullish, so momentum is still bullish. Same as Yesterday.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 ***
Major level: 137.50 HIT
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 137.32. The TLT will still need two closes above 138.28 to move higher. Two closes under 135.84 and the TLT should continue down to 131.25.
137.50 should be resistance. And technical resistance is at that level as well.
GLD:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The GLD closed at 142.33. A close today above 141.41 and the GLD should head up to 143.75.
140.63 should be support.
137.50 should be strong support. So if the GLD does break under it, I would expect it to head lower.
The key level is 134.38 on the downside. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125.
Technical resistance is around 140. Short term, the GLD is overbought.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <<
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 61.68. The objective for the XLE should be for a move up to 62.50. And the XLE is now within 50 cents of it. But, the XLE closed under 61.72, so it will need to reclaim this level today to head higher.
The XLE continues to hold just above the midband, which is now 60.57. This should be support.
The XLE has still not crossed into an uptrend on the daily chart, but it is inching closer. If the XLE can cross into an uptrend and start to move above the midband, it could have a strong move higher.
AAPL:
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63 **
Major level: 287.50 HIT
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Minor level: 265.63
Major level: 262.50
Apple closed at 289.80. Apple did clear 290.63 Friday, but could not close above it. It will need two closes above 290.63 to head up to 300.
287.50 should offer support.
And Apple is up against the upper band on the daily chart. That level is 295.02.
Needless to say that short term trends remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TSLA, GOOGL, SHOP< HUM, NOC, ADBE, SPY, DPZ, BDX, INTU, NVDA, BABA, FB, MCD, KLAC, URI, ZBH, JPM, IBM, RCL
Bearish Stocks: BA, FFIV, CHKP, ALXN, SAGE, SQ, PLCE, TXRH, CAKE
Be sure to check earnings release dates.