With the US dollar about to peak out and resume a decade-long plunge, it’s time to think outside the box.
How about a country whose leaders have stolen $400 billion in the last decade and have seen 300 foreign workers kidnapped?
Another country lost four wars in the last 40 years.
Still interested?
How about a country that suffers one of the world’s highest AIDs rates, endures regular insurrections where all of the Westerners get massacred and racked up 5 million dead in a continuous civil war?
Then, Africa is the place for you, the world’s largest source of gold, diamonds, chocolate, and cobalt! The countries above are Libya, Nigeria, Egypt, and the Congo.
Below the radar of the investment community since the colonial days, the Dark Continent has recently been attracting the attention of large hedge funds and private equity firms.
Goldman Sachs has set up Emerging Capital Partners, which has already invested billions there. China sees the writing on the wall and has launched a latter-day colonization effort, taking a 20% equity stake in South Africa’s Standard Bank, the largest on the continent. There are now thought to be over one million Chinese agricultural workers in Africa.
The angle here is that all of the terrible headlines above are in the price, that prices are very low, and the perceived risk is much greater than actual risk.
Price earnings multiples are low single digits, cash flows are huge, and returns of capital within two years are not unheard of. These numbers remind me of those found in Japan during the fifties, right after it lost WWII.
The reality is that Africa’s 900 million have unlimited demand for almost everything, and there is scant supply, with many firms enjoying local monopolies. The big plays are your classic early emerging market targets, like banking, telecommunications, electric power, and other infrastructure.
For example, in the last decade, the number of telephones has soared from 350,000 to 10 million. It’s like the early days of investing in China in the seventies when the adventurous only played when they could double their money in two years because the risks were so high.
This is definitely not for day traders. If you are willing to give up a lot of short term liquidity for a high long term return, then look at the Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK), which has 29% of its holdings in South Africa and 20% in Nigeria. There is also the SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF). For more of a rifle shot, entertain the iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund (EZA). Don’t rush out and buy these today. Instead, wait for emerging markets to come back in vogue. I will send you a trade alert when this is going to happen.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/African.jpg322512Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-08 08:02:352023-03-08 08:53:48Investing in a State Sponsor of Terrorism
Since we have a hefty 50% weighting in long bond options, it’s time to review how to handle options called away.
The higher the yield on a security, the greater the call away risk. With ten-year US Treasury yields now at 4.00%, the call away risk is heightened.
Let’s say you call away an option the day before the ETF goes ex-dividend. That enables you to collect an entire quarter’s 88 basis point payout in a day. A measly 88 basis points may not be much for you, but it is a lot for a highly leveraged hedge fund. That places the March expirations at greatest risk of a call away when dividends are paid out. While our longest expiration is currently February 17, it’s still best to become fluent in the call away process now.
In the run-up to every options expiration, which is the third Friday of every month, there is a possibility that any short options positions you have may get assigned or called away.
The first notice you may get of options called away is a shocking out-of-the-blue margin call of $1 million or more.
If that happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.
Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.
The short options, which are owned by somebody else, can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.
You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly. I’ll use a previous trade as an example.
Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away. I’ll use the example of the Microsoft (MSFT) December 2019 $134-$137 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread.
For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 8 days before the December 20 expiration date. In other words, what you bought for $4.50 last week is now $5.00!
All have to do is call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long position in your (MSFT) December $134 calls to close out your short position in the (MSFT) December $137 calls.
This is a perfectly hedged position, with both options having the same expiration date, the same amount of contracts in the same stock, so there is no risk. The name, number of shares, and number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.
Calls are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.
To say it another way, you bought the (MSFT) at $134 and sold it at $137, paid $2.60 for the right to do so, so your profit is 40 cents, or ($0.40 X 100 shares X 38 contracts) = $1,520. Not bad for an 18-day limited risk play.
Sounds like a good trade to me.
Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.
A call owner may need to buy a long (MSFT) position after the stock market close, and exercising his long December $134 call is the only way to execute it.
Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.
There are also thousands of algorithms out there which may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.
Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.
And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.
And here’s another possible outcome in this process.
Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it. They’ll tell you to take delivery of your long stock and then post additional margin to cover the risk.
Either that or you can just sell your shares on the following Monday and take on a ton of risk over the weekend. This generates a boatload of commission for the brokers but impoverishes you.
There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days because as soon as someone learns something useful, they take a job elsewhere for more money. It doesn’t pay. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.
Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.
Brokers have so many legal ways to steal money that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.
This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.
Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.
If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.
Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.
If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Call-Options.png345522Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-07 11:02:132023-03-07 12:22:31A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away
In 1942, after the First Marine Division won the battle of Guadalcanal and my Uncle Mitch won his Medal of Honor, they were shipped to Melbourne, Australia for six months of rest and relaxation.
Since their uniforms were in rags and many men were barefoot, they were handed scratchy WWI surplus wool uniforms. That’s all the Aussies had, as their army was off fighting Rommel in North Africa.
All 8,000 men lived in the Melbourne Cricket Ground, and the government delivered a truckload of beer barrels every day. Whenever the men went outside, they were invited by local families off the street to have dinner. After four months, they were fat and happy.
Then one day, they were placed on a train with full battle gear, taken 50 miles out of town, and told to walk back with no food and a canteen of water. They were retraining for the next battle, which would be in New Guinea.
When economic data flip-flops, so does the market.
The red-hot January Nonfarm Report with the Unemployment Rate at a 50-year low of 3.5% gave the bulls every reason to buy stock. So stocks can’t fall.
But a strong jobs market means the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer gives plenty of fodder for the bears. So stocks can’t rise.
My Mad Hedge Market Timing Index is equally confused at 55. You can’t get any closer to 50, which means you should do absolutely nothing.
Notice that the S&P 500 (SPY) bounced off the 200-day moving average at $390.95 to the penny and rallied, a perfect symptom of this disease. When the fundamentals are confused, technicals win.
At this late age, the only one I take orders from is named Mr. Market. Ignore his instructions at your own peril and expense. Everyone else can get lost.
That leaves us nothing to do but to wait for the next events of market consequence, the March 14 CPI and the December 22 Fed interest rate decision. We might as well twiddle our thumbs and watch the clock until then.
So I will stick to my market-neutral strategy as long as I must take in enough money to keep the lights on. I keep doing this knowing full well that the last time I do will lose money.
This could go on for months.
In the meantime, I will keep researching the long term, which continues to look better and better. The dross ends in months. It’s the next decade we need to focus on now.
It's time to polish our armor, sharpen our weapons, and get back in shape, just as the First Marine Division did 81 years ago.
Remember that we are in the “what’s next” business. Whatever you buy now has to be discounting the following coming trends:
Falling interest rates
A weak dollar
Rising commodity prices
Rising energy prices
Reaccelerating tech earnings
A new boom in real estate
Precious metals going to record highs
Strong emerging markets
A Ukraine win leading to global peace
America’s principal adversary is rendered impotent
A second peace dividend ensues
Every trade alert I send you this year will be taking of one or more of these trends. It’s just a matter of time before they begin if they haven’t already.
We had a really great last two days of February, pushing me back in the green for February, taking me up +3.41% on the month. March has so far come in at +0.80%.
My 2023 year-to-date performance is still at the top at +26.56%. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up +6.36% so far in 2023. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high +85.51% versus -5.66% for the S&P 500.
That brings my 15-year total return to +623.75%, some 2.72 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My average annualized return has recovered to +47.37%, still the highest in the industry.
Nothing Happens Until March 14, at 8:30 AM EST when the next big inflation read, the Core CPI comes out. It’s all about inflation right now. Look for a flat line until then. That’s why it’s a good time to run short strangles and own lots of cash. A dollar at a market bottom is worth $10 at a market top.
S&P Case Shiller Gains 5.7% in December, YOY according to its National Home Price Index. That’s a quarter of the gains seen a year ago. Miami (15.9%), Tampa (13.9%), and Atlanta (10.4%) showed the biggest gains. High mortgage interest rates are still a big drag and will continue for another six months.
Pending Home SalesSoar 8.7% in January on a signed contract basis. It is the second straight month of gains and the biggest in 2 ½ years. See what a 1.5% drop in mortgage rates can do? While rates are back up now it shows how much demand is building up in the residential real estate market. I think this market explodes to the upside by yearend.
Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.65%, snuffing out the green shoots that briefly appeared in January. Mortgages are still maintaining an unprecedented 200 basis point premium to 30-year Treasury bond rates, which should disappear by yearend. The seeds of the next housing boom are germinating.
Tesla Tanks Semiconductor Shares, after Elon Musk announced that he plans to cut silicon carbide chips by 75%. Improved new designs will also slash the number of chips needed for EVs, whose supply and prices are notoriously volatile. New chip designs will appear in the $25,000 model 2 due out in 2025.
Ark’s Dirty Little Secret. Cathy Woods’ ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK) is one of the top-performing funds so far in 2023, up 24%. But strip out the performance of Tesla (TSLA) and the five-year return has been precisely zero. Good thing (TSLA) is up 110% this year. Maybe its cheaper just to buy (TSLA) and skip the dross and high management fees at Ark? Elon Musk thinks it’s going to $1,000 a share and so do I. Oh, and they just dropped the price of their top end Model X by $20,000.
Stellantis (STLA) Buys a Copper Mine, taking a 14.2% stake in Argentina’s McEwen Copper mine. Gee, do you think the owner of the Chrysler brand is going into EVs? They also laid off 2,000 because with 80% fewer parts EVs require far less workers. Buy Copper and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) on dips. The global copper shortage is imminent.
China Manufacturing PMI Hits 11-Year High, at 52.6 in a surprising comeback from the end of covid lockdowns. The news hit the bond market, worried about rising inflation prospects. Supply chain problems in the US should ease as a result.
Wheat Prices Crash, seeing a 6% dive in February. What always follows a food shortage? A food glut, as farmers overplant to cash in on generous government subsidies, creating a bumper crop. It’s only a 100-year cycle. Prices will stay low as long as Ukraine can keep exporting.
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of the recession, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. The economy decarbonizing and technology hyper accelerating, creating enormous investment opportunities. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The new America will be far more efficient and profitable than the old.
Dow 240,000 here we come!
On Monday, March 6 at 7:00 AM EST, US Factory Orders are out.
On Tuesday, March 7 January 31 at 7:00 AM EST, the Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell testifies in front of congress. On Wednesday, March 8 at 7:00 AM EST, the JOLTS Job Opening Report is released. On Thursday, March 9 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced.
On Friday, March 10 at 8:30 AM EST, the Nonfarm Payroll Report for February is released.
As for me, while I was in Hawaii the other week, I took the opportunity to meet up with my old friend, David, who reminded me of the week to end all week 25 years ago.
I first met David at a Tokyo karate dojo in 1974 when he was 16 and his dad was the Associated Press Bureau Chief.
As we were about the same size, Higaona Sensei paired is off as sparing partners. But to fight, David had to take off his glasses. It wasn’t long before I saw my front teeth flying across the room and skittering across the teak floorboards.
I next met David at Morgan Stanley when I was a London director, and he was a junior trader in Tokyo. After that, I took off to start my own hedge fund.
When Morgan ordered him to meet with their traders in Zurich, Switzerland, I saw the perfect excuse for an adventure. Starting in London, we first dropped off our wives for a week of shopping in Paris, flying my twin Cessna 340.
I used my old trick of getting permission to fly over the center of Paris so I could waggle my wings at the tourists as we passed the top of the Eiffel Tower.
In Zurich, I got in a fight with the tower because they ordered me into a parking stand that was still under construction. I left David to his meetings, thus enabling us to bill the entire trip to Morgan Stanley, aviation fuel, five-star hotels, three-star restaurants, and all. If you did that today at (MS) you’d probably get fired.
I then flew off to pick up a couple of cases of first-growth French wines from the owners in Bordeaux to kill time.
When I picked up David the next day, we headed south. It was a clear day, so I thought it might be a good time to visit the Matterhorn summit. As we circled, the day’s successful climbers waved their ice axes. Then it was up the Rhone River Valley, threading an Alpine valley.
When I realized that I couldn’t climb fast enough to escape the valley, I executed a quick Immelman turn. You’re never supposed to do this in a twin because there is a risk of entering a flat spin (watch the Top Gun movie to see what this is).
But I had my British Aerobatics license, my Swiss Alpine license, plenty of speed, and an oversupply of confidence, so I figured we’d be OK. I performed the first half of a loop, then at the top, I flipped the plane 180 degrees, thus righting it and heading in the opposite direction. But I think we singed the rear ends of a few mountain goats on the way.
Needless to say, this caught David’s attention.
When I popped out of the top of the Alps, I was immediately intercepted by a Mirage fighter from the Swiss Air Force. I was now in military air space. He took a few runs at me at just under Mach 1, using me for target practice. Once I was identified he went on off his merry way.
Now I was lost.
All the maneuvering put me too low to intercept any European navigational aids. So we just looked out the window. Eventually, we noticed that to roof tiles of the city below us were red, which meant we had to be over Italy. I correctly identified it as Bolzano. From there I calculated a direct track to the airfield at St. Moritz in Switzerland.
We stayed at the legendary Badrutt’s Palace Hotel. The next day, we took a cable car to the highest peak. While American ski resorts offer cheeseburgers or pizza, Swiss ones have Michelin Three Star Restaurants. We enjoyed the meal of a lifetime.
When the Tokyo stock market crashed, Morgan Stanley let go of most of its Tokyo staff. David landed on his feet, taking over as the head of trading at Lehman Brothers. He later moved on to a hedge fund, cashing in its Lehman stock well before he went under.
David later retired to the North Share of Oahu in Hawaii, and I visit whenever I’m in town. He is very proud of his tropical fruit orchard. When the 50-foot waves crash at nearby Waimea Bay, the ground shakes.
Whenever I see David, he reminds me of our “lost week” over the Alps. It was the most exciting week of his life. And I always respond, “But David, every week is like that for me.”
When I visit Bolzano this summer to research the battles there in WWI in which my great uncle perished, I’ll ask the residents if they noticed a lost airplane overhead 25 years ago.
Good Luck and Good Trading
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
The First Marine Division in the Melbourne Cricket Ground in 1942
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/higaona-sensei.jpg255160Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-06 09:02:352023-03-07 11:05:27The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or A Week with John Thomas
The great thing about interviewing Joseph Stiglitz over dinner is that you don't have to ask any questions. You just turn him on, and he spits out one zinger after another.
And he does this in a kibitzing, wizened, grandfatherly manner like one would expect from a character that just walked off the set of Fiddler on the Roof.
The unfortunate thing is that you also don't get to eat. The Columbia University professor and former World Bank Chief Economist animatedly talked the entire time, and I was too busy feverishly taking notes to ingest a single crouton.
Stiglitz argued that for 30 years after the end of the Great Depression, there was no financial crisis because a newly empowered SEC was on the beat, and everything worked.
A deregulation trend that started under Reagan began stripping away those protections, with the eventual disastrous repeal of the Glass-Steagle Act in 1999, which kept commercial banks out of the securities business. The philosophical justification adopted by many economists, including Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, was that unfettered markets always lead to efficient outcomes.
This belief was based on simplistic models assuming that markets were always perfect, always open, and that everyone had perfect information. Stiglitz's own work on “information asymmetry,” which earned him a Nobel Prize in economics in 2001, pulled the rug out from under this theory because it showed that one party to a transaction always has more information than the other, usually the seller. I have heard investing oracle, Warren Buffet, tell me the exact same thing.
The banks used this window to introduce super-leveraged derivatives that had never been regulated, studied, or even understood. But they looked great on paper. They then clawed open accounting loopholes that were so imaginative that, not only were shareholders and regulators deceived about how much risk was involved, senior management was clueless as well. Instead of managing risk, they created and multiplied risk.
A 2006 GDP that was 80% derived from real estate transactions and a savings rate that fell to zero meant that a severe crash was a sure thing. President Bush's response was to unleash an extreme form of “trickle-down economics,” with the banks given $700 billion with no conditions attached.
Intended to recapitalize the banks so they could resume lending to the mainstream economy, much of the money ended up being paid out in bonuses and dividends to foreign counterparties. Of the $180 billion used to rescue AIG, $13 billion went to Goldman Sachs, and much of the rest went to German and French banks.
No wonder Main Street feels cheated.
The financial system is now more distorted than ever, with smaller banks that actually lend to consumers and small businesses going under in record numbers because the playing field is so uneven. There are too many structural conflicts of interest.
The “once in a 100-year tsunami” argument is merely a justification for changing nothing. Banks would rather maintain the fiction that the loans on their books are good than making adjustments. No financial system has ever wasted assets on this scale, and the end result will be a national debt many tens of trillions of dollars larger.
The 2009 $887 billion stimulus package was too small, and should have been at least $1.2 trillion, but there was no way Obama was going to get more out of congress. The 40% of the stimulus that was tax cuts was saved or put into Treasury bonds and created no immediate beneficial effects on the economy.
More money should have gone to the states which, unable to deficit spend, are now a huge drag on the economy. But even this meager package was able to prevent the unemployment rate from rising from 10% to 12%, as it was set to do. Any major spending cuts will produce “Hoover” type outcomes.
Well, I don't get to chat at length with a Nobel Prize winner every day, so I thought I'd give you the full blast, even though I had to leave a lot out. For a dinner that I could actually eat, I walked next-door for a Big Mac meal and supersized the fries.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Joseph-Stiglitz.jpg248361Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-03 10:02:302023-03-03 12:48:11Dinner with Joseph Stiglitz
So how does someone with 55 years of investment experience like me learn something new? Listen to someone with 80 years of experience.
It is with great anticipation that I read Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. Having banged the table for decades that his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) is a “must own” stock, keeping up with the 92-year-old Oracle of Omaha” is essential.
Besides, Warren was one of the founding subscribers to The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader 15 years ago.
I’ll give you the high points.
Berkshire companies took in a record $30.8 billion in operating profits in 2022, producing a net 3% gain in the share price.
Sounds like a deal to me!
Buffett describes himself as a business picker, not a stock picker. Over time, the great businesses prosper and compound, while the poor ones fail. The flowers bloom and the weeds wither away.
One need look no further than the Dow Average, where NO stocks were able to stay in the index over the last 100 years because of business failures. (Corn Products Refining Company? Woolworth’s? Union Carbide?). This is known as “creative destruction,” which moves capital out of the past and into the future.
“Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks, their day-to-day behavior “baffling” and only understood in retrospect.
In the ultimate act of humility, Buffet confesses to only making a dozen good decisions in his life. Coca Cola (KO) was one of those. His initial investment of $1.3 billion in 1994 is now worth $25 billion and now spins off an annual dividend of $700 million.
American Express (AXP) is the same, the initial 1995 investment of $1.3 billion is now worth $22 billion, paying $302 billion a year in dividends. Over the same time frame, an investment in 30-years bonds yielded nothing.
Warren makes the case for share buybacks, which he regularly executes whenever (BRK/B) trades at a discount. When the share count goes down, the shareholders’ ownership of the businesses goes up. This is how Berkshire created many $100 millionaires over the years.
Buffet also makes his annual case for the “Great American Tailwind.” In Buffet’s 80 years of investing, he has only seen it becalmed occasionally and briefly. Never bet against America.
Buffet started his investing career in April of 1942. Unknown to him, the US was about to win the Battle of Midway. Stocks bottomed and launched a torrid 20-year run, even though the public was unaware of the victory for three more months. It’s proof that markets see things before we mere mortals do.
As for me, I suppose I have to be even more humble than Warren Buffet, for I have only made four good investment decisions in 50 years. I agreed to accept a job offer from The Economist magazine in London, kicking off a half-century of intensive research. I took a big pay cut to go to work for Morgan Stanley (MS), which rewarded me with pre-IPO stock at book value of 25 cents a share. I bought Apple (AAPL) at $2 when Steve Jobs returned to run the company on the edge of bankruptcy. I bought Tesla (TSLA) at a split-adjusted $2.35 a share in 2010, completely buying into Elon Musk’s 30-year vision.
I only have to live another 17 years to see if he was right.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/New-Tesla.png455647Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-02 08:02:142023-03-02 07:53:47Touching Base With Warren Buffet
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2023-03-01 08:04:432023-03-01 15:31:43March 1, 2023
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