Global Market Comments
February 14, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHERE THE ECONOMIST “BIG MAC” INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE TODAY),
(UUP), (FXE), (FXY), (CYB)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
My former employer, The Economist, once the ever-tolerant editor of my flabby, disjointed, and juvenile prose (Thanks to Peter Martin and Marjorie Deane!), has just released its "Big Mac" index of relative international currency valuations.
Although initially launched as a joke five decades ago, I have followed it religiously and found it an amazingly accurate predictor of future economic success.
The index counts the cost of McDonald's (MCD) premium two beef patty sandwiches around the world, ranging from $8.35 in Venezuela to $1.68 in Lebanon, and comes up with a measure of currency under and overvaluation.
What are its conclusions today?
The Venezuelan Bolivar is wildly expensive, with 235 years of annual per capita income needed to buy a single Big Mac in local currency terms if you can find one. There are currently 4 million Bolivars to the US Dollar in this sadly bankrupt country.
The Norwegian Kroner, Swiss franc (FXF), and the US Dollar (UUP) are also dear, with the average cost of an American Big Mac at $5.35. Every year I make a ritual visit to what is often the most expensive McDonald’s in the world at Zermatt Switzerland (see pictures below). There the Big Macs taste slightly acidic.
The cheapest currencies are the South African Rand, the Russian Ruble, and the Lebanese Pound, a Big Mac coming in at $1.68 in Beirut.
I couldn't agree more with many of these conclusions. It's as if the august weekly publication was tapping The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader for ideas.
I am no longer the frequent consumer of Big Macs that I once was, as my metabolism has slowed to such an extent that in eating one, you might as well tape it to my ass. Better to use it as an economic forecasting tool than a speedy lunch.
The Big Mac is a Steal Here in Turkey
No Bargain Here in Italy Either
And Costs a King’s Ransome Here in Zermatt
“I’ve drunk to your health in company. I drank to your health alone. I’ve drunk to your health so many times that I’ve damn near ruined my own, said WWII Admiral “Bull” Halsey.
Global Market Comments
February 13, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW CRISPR TECHNOLOGY MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE)
(TMO), (OVAS), (CLLS), (SGMO)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
When I was a DNA scientist at UCLA 50 years ago, the team used to slack off whenever our professor was attending an out-of-town conference.
We used to take pure 200 proof ethanol the university kept on hand “for research purposes,” used it to bring our beer up to 100 proof, and then speculate about the future of our obscure, neglected field.
With the technology at hand, we predicted it would take 3,000 years to fully decode the 3 billion base pairs of a length of human DNA. It then might take another 1,000 years to manipulate our genes to accomplish something useful, like curing cancer.
Maybe it was our “enhanced” beer talking, but we were off on our bold forecast by only 2,970 years.
Dr. Craig Venter published a map of his own DNA in 2001 using sophisticated algorithms to vastly accelerate our own snail-like progress.
The second step, that of functional genetic engineering, took only another decade instead of a millennium.
Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR).
Memorize this term, write it in your diary, and put it on a post-it note on your computer.
It may save your life someday, if not add decades to your life. And it could also make you a multimillionaire if you play your cards right. More on that below.
And I count myself on becoming one of its fortunate users, once the technology goes retail, which should be soon.
If you are another DNA scientist, all I need to tell you is that CRISPR is used to manipulate segments of prokaryotic DNA containing short repetitions of base sequences.
Each repetition is followed by short segments of spacer DNA from previous exposures to a bacteriophage virus or plasmids. The protein fragments that identify and snip these crucial gene segments are called CRISPRs.
If you are the average Joe stock trader, which most of you are, suffice it to say that CRISPR technology is being developed that will enable you to edit your own DNA on a customized basis and then pass the changes on to your future generations.
This will eventually allow you to become immune to all diseases, increase your intelligence, and possibly live forever. Just cut out a bad gene and put in a new one and you and all your future decedents are fixed for good.
You only have to make it five or ten more years at the most with your current vintage DNA, and you can easily live another century.
Oh, and by the way, the company that successfully brings CRISPR products to market in an economical, cost affordable way should see its stock price rise tenfold, if not one hundredfold.
Interested?
Reading up on the research for this piece, one thought kept recurring in my mind: “I can’t believe they are already doing this NOW!”
CRISPR technology was first mooted by a Japanese researcher in 1987. It turns out that the Japanese have a huge head start in developing DNA technologies thanks to a 300-year track record in brewing potent rice wines, like sake.
By 2007, CRISPR went mainstream, attracting funding from a broad range of industries. There was initial heavy interest from the food producers, which sought to make plants and their seeds immune to common crop-destroying diseases.
Their work is partly responsible for the record crop yields that are presently crushing agricultural prices across the board.
As of today, there have been over 3,000 peer-reviewed papers published about CRISPR, each one taking us an infinitesimal step forward.
Currently, there are clinical trials underway employing CRISPR technology to fight multiple forms of cancer, herpes viruses, and advance immunosuppression in human organ transplants.
A legal battle broke out over who owns the rights to CRISPR technology, with Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) holdings several key patents.
OvaScience Inc. (OVAS) has started applying CRISPR to human embryos. It didn’t take long to ignite a firestorm of controversy over the prospect of permanently altering the human germline.
Will the wealthy buy their way into genetic superiority and immortality? Or will we accidentally create an organism that could wipe out the human race? Cries of “Social Darwinism” are everywhere.
Or worse, what if the Chinese make their own population immune to bioweapons which they then unleash on the rest of the world?
What if a gene treatment that cures cancer also makes individuals, aggressive, paranoid, or violent?
Talk about letting a genie out of a bottle while also opening Pandora’s Box!
Some leading scientific journals, like Nature and Science, have refused to publish some CRISPR paper over ethical concerns. Unsurprisingly, Chinese scientists have the lead in the most controversial applications.
It’s all way beyond my pay grade.
During my lifetime, I have seen science drop some real clangers.
While in Europe this summer, I saw a Thalidomide baby grown up, now in his fifties. The anti-morning sickness drug developed by a German company produced children with horrifying flippers instead of arms.
Even today, Thalidomide is held out as an example of the need for enhanced drug regulation in the US.
In the early 1950s, one doctor developed the bright idea of giving newborn babies pure oxygen. Everyone who received this treatment went completely blind for life.
And then the CIA developed LSD as a potential weapon, testing it on its own unwitting employees, who developed an unfortunate tendency to jump out of windows from high floors. We all know how that one worked out.
We already know what genes people will choose when given the opportunity to do so, instead of using the ones they inherited, the old-fashioned way.
The unregulated human artificial insemination industry makes available genotypes of every race and nationality in abundance. More than 90% choose tall, blonde, intelligent donors, inadvertently creating a financial windfall from the UC Berkeley Men’s Water Polo Team.
It is an outcome Adolph Hitler would have been proud of, as more than 1 million of these children have been born in the US alone.
Some prolific water polo players have sired more than 100 children, which are now using websites like 23andMe and Ancestry.com to find each other and socialize.
It was not in the game plan.
As is always the case with new, cutting edge, groundbreaking technologies, it is hard to find a rifle shot investment that gives you a pure play.
Many such efforts are subsumed inside huge companies where a specific technology never moves the needle. Starts ups often go bust because they can’t keep up with rapidly evolving technology.
That’s what happened to the 3D printing industry, and I can’t remember how many hard drive companies and PC makers that have gone under.
Editas (EDIT), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU), Intellia (NTLA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), and Precision Biosciences (DTIL) have all gone public over the last five years. Here is your bite of the apple.
Cellectis (CLLS) is a $1.1 billion French company that is involved in both gene editing and cancer immunotherapy. The Company has improved the quality of crops for the food and agriculture industries.
And here is the really good news.
Many of these shares have dropped 70%-80% in the last year, thanks to the generalized biotech meltdown and the wholesale flight from profitless companies. Crisper alone fell 77% top to bottom, much to my own personal financial destruction.
Many will find the prospect of living another century enticing. I might be interested if I could get back the body I has when I was 25 but still know what I know now.
The possibility of finding a stock that could rise 10 or 100 times is MUCH more interesting.
Putting Another 100 Years on the Clock?
"It's hard when a $10-$11 trillion economy that affects one third of the global economy is on a learning curve," said my friend, David Tepper, of Appaloosa Management.
Global Market Comments
February 10, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 8 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(RCL), (TSLA), (UUP), ($VIX), (BRKB), (TLT), (TBT), (ROM), (CVNA), (SLV), (DIS)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: There will be no strategy letter for
February 13 and 21 as I will be traveling. - JT
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the February 8 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley in California.
Q: What do you make of the Chinese balloon that crossed the United States last week?
It was the most overhyped, least consequential event in recent memory, and is not a new thing. There is no chance this was an innocent scientific mission as there was no flight plan filed. What’s China’s new frontline weapon? A catapult? A bow and arrow? Are American balloon makers going to demand increased defense spending? Curiously, no mention was ever made of the three Chinese balloons that crossed the US during the previous administration when no action was taken. My guess is that a Chinese Army faction wanted to keep their defense spending rising and torpedoed any rapprochement that was in the works with the US. Another theory was that they wanted to test our response. There is nothing the balloon could have captured that the Chinese didn’t already have from their satellites or even Google Earth for free. The media coverage has been a flood of false information. If the Chinese really can predict global winds at 60,000 feet two weeks in advance, then their math is so far more advanced than our own then we might as well surrender. By the way, during WWII the Japanese sent 20,000 balloons our way in an attempt to set the Western US on fire. Only one exploded, killing a family in Oregon.
Q: I’m getting worried about my long-term LEAPS in (TLT) and (FCX) given the recent market action. Thanks in advance for your help.
A: The (TLT)'s should be OK by expiration because they hit max profit even in an unchanged bond market. But Republican radicals who want a government shutdown at any price are definitely going to rattle your cage. That’s why I currently have no short-term position in bonds and am waiting for a bigger pullback to maybe $101 before I get back in. As for Freeport McMoRan (FCX) you can take profits any time. The stock doubled after we recommended the LEAPS in October. Longer term, I think (FCX) goes to $100 because of a coming global copper shortage.
Q: Should I buy Royal Caribbean (RCL) because we’re looking at a record-breaking cruise season coming up this year?
A: The time to buy Royal Caribbean was actually last June; it was one of the first outperformers in the market, completely skipped the October meltdown, and is practically doubled off the low. So great idea, just 8 months too late. And that actually is the case with a lot of stocks now—they've had such enormous runs over a short time, that you’re taking a lot of risks to get involved here.
Q: Do you think Silicon Valley should force all workers back into the office? Wouldn't that enhance creativity?
A: It does enhance creativity but at the cost of productivity. People are much more productive when they work at home, don’t have to spend 2 hours commuting, and can build their job around their lifestyle. They work at home cheaper too. So, it’s a trade-off, do you want creativity or do you want productivity? Well, the productive people should stay at home, the creative people should go to the office—it’s a company by company, product by product decision.
Q: You say you never touch 2x and 3x ETFs?
A: The only exception to that is the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) which we traded for 2.5 years while the bonds were making a straight line move down, or the ProShares Ultra Technology ETF (ROM) which tends to have straight up move like this year. And the only time you could do a 2x is if you think the move in the underlying is going to be so enormous it covers up all the costs of dealing in these ETFs, then it’s worth doing. 3xs I never ever touch them because those reset at the end of the day and are really designed to be intraday hedging instruments, which we’re not interested in.
Q: Are you still bearish on the US dollar (UUP)?
A: Absolutely, we’ve had almost a straight line move down ever since October, and we’re getting a temporary break on that while interest rates stay higher for longer. The next dive in interest rates, the dollar collapses once again.
Q: When you buy back into bonds, where in the curve will you be buying?
A: In bull markets, you always want to buy the longest maturity available. Back in the 1970s, I used to buy WWI infinite British Treasury bonds because they had 100-year maturities, and therefore, in any bull market, have the largest gains. In the US, the 30-year instruments are pretty illiquid, so I focus on the 10-year, which is the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).
Q: What could be the next entry point for Tesla (TSLA) LEAPS?
A: I’m afraid that we have left LEAPS land for Tesla, I mean $100, $110, $120, $130—that’s all LEAP territory. Up here? Not unless you want to do a very low return LEAP like a $150/$160. I don’t see Tesla going below $150. Too many people trying to get into the stock, and Elon Musk is a master at delivering short squeezes, which he has done a perfect job of this year.
Q: What do you think about Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS)?
A: I love REITS. They are a falling interest rate play. Highly exposed to interest rates, highly leveraged, and you get some great performance—and we’ve already had some since October. I think the bear market in real estate ends this year and we get a new bull in housing that starts next year because we still have a chronic structural shortage of housing. We’re missing about 10 million houses that we need—in that situation, prices go up. In fact, there are still bidding wars going on in the prime residential (mostly rural) parts of the country.
Q: Wouldn’t you want to buy at-the-money calls, not spreads in a low Volatility Index ($VIX) market on a 4-6 month view, because of cheaper pricing?
A: Yes you do, but not on top of a record move to the upside. If we can get a pullback in the markets of a1 /3-1/2 of their recent moves, and the ($VIX) is still low, then that makes all the sense in the world, to buy at the money calls with ($VIX) of $17. The only problem is if we give up half the recent gains, you’re not going to have a ($VIX) at $17 anymore, it’ll be more like $27 if we get a pullback like that and options will be expensive again. It’s amazing how cheap upside exposure gets at market tops—that’s what the ($VIX) market is telling you. In other words, it’s a sucker’s bet. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
Q: What do you think about Alphabet (GOOGL)?
A: It’s overbought like the rest of the stocks in the sector. But the charts are looking very attractive, with an upside breakout of the 200-day. Long-term, they have a killer business model, but they also have antitrust problems. Again, everything is way too overbought for me to get involved on a short-term basis.
Q: What price would you get in at for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B)?
A: It’s not selling off, it’s flatlining. So even a small dip like we had yesterday would be a decent place to get into. Long term we’re looking for $400/share for this by the end of this year.
Q: Will strong wage growth lead the Fed to raise interest rates higher?
A: Well they’ve already said essentially they’re going to do 2 more quarter point rises. Beyond that, the Fed itself doesn’t know. When you have interest rates at 10-20 year highs, and 3.4% unemployment. No one has ever seen that before, there is no playbook for what’s happening now—either in the economy or in the stock market. So everyone’s standing around, scratching their heads, trying to figure out what to do, and waiting for more data to come out to give direction. And I’m in the same position really.
Q: Will the US Treasury bond get down to a 2.0% yield by the end of the year?
A: I think it's a possibility but expect a lot of volatility and fears around prospects of a government shutdown this summer and a debt default. Part of the Republican party seems intent on forcing that, and that is not good for bond longs. You get through that, you could have an absolutely ballistic move up in the (TLT), to $120 or even $130.
Q: Would you consider a LEAPS on housing stocks?
A: LEAPS are things you do at multi-year market bottoms, not after 50% moves; and the housing stocks have actually been moving since June; so that was a June story. Buy low, sell high—it’s my revolutionary new concept; most people do the opposite.
Q: Should I invest in Disney (DIS) on a buy it on a Bob Iger turnaround?
A: Yes, but only on a dip; we’ve already had a massive move. If we don’t get a recession, that is fantastic for Disney’s park business.
Q: What is your target for Silver (SLV)?
A: $50/oz. We’re at $20 now. Silver is becoming the new industrial metal, far outstripping any jewelry demand that you used to have; and that’s because of EVs and solar. Who knew that we’re at 10 million homes with solar panels in California now? That is just an enormous number that’s happened mostly in the last five years.
Q: When you look at Natural Gas, would you consider LEAPS?
A: Yes, but I haven’t run the numbers yet. The price has gotten so low, down 80% in eight months that you buy it even if you hate it.
Q: Should I pay attention to demographics when I invest? What is the most important one right now?
A: Demographics are very important, because children born today become customers in 20 years, and companies will start adapting their policies for those customers now in terms of capital investments and so on. It also affects stock markets now. Also, you always want to invest in the country that had the fastest growing population, which used to be China but isn’t anymore. By the way, the reason the US economy has outperformed Europe by 1% a year in GDP growth for the last 70 years is because we allow immigrants, and they don’t. All parties used to be in favor of immigration while now only one is. Why, I don’t understand.
Q: What about a LEAP on Silver (SLV)?
A: That is a possible candidate because we have had a move, but it’s only been about 20%. It’s not like 50% or 100% like we’ve seen with Tesla (TSLA). There are a few asset classes that are still in LEAPS territory—I think Silver would be one of them, and certainly natural gas (UNG). If I were to do a LEAPS, I’d go out 2 years and do something like a $25-$27; the old high is $50. You should get about a 5x leverage on that kind of LEAPS.
Q: Would you buy LEAPS puts on Carvana (CVNA)?
A: Absolutely not. Again, another great one-year-ago idea, not a now idea. Buy Put LEAPS at extreme market tops, not now. Carvana had dropped 95% in the last year.
Q: Is seasonality an important consideration in your trading strategy?
A: Absolutely yes. If you buy stocks in November and do the sell-in-May strategy, your average annual return is something like 20% a year. If you buy stocks in May and sell them in December, the 70-year return on that is zero. I love having the tailwind of seasonality; I can’t remember seeing it when it didn’t work. It’s an important consideration, and we’re right in the middle of the “BUY” season and the market is agreeing with me.
Q: You should do a LEAPS letter.
A: I already do in fact do a LEAPS letter, and it’s called the Mad Hedge Concierge Service where we have a whole website dedicated to just LEAPS. Some ten out of 12 made money last year, and some went up 10X. Contact customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com if you’re interested. Concierge members are very happy with their LEAPS coverage.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com , go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH or TECHNOLOGY LETTER, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
At 29 Palms in my M1 Abrams Tank in 2000
“If I had asked what the customers wanted, they would have told me faster horses,” said Henry Ford.
Global Market Comments
February 9, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BULL CASE FOR BANKS),
(JPM), (BAC), (C), (WFC), (GS), (MS)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Urgent Trader Warning: The Mad Hedge Market Timing Index moved to a one-year high yesterday and is in “STRONG SELL” territory. Any long stock positions you have for the short-term should be hedged. For more details, please visit my Refresher Course at Short Selling School by clicking here.
Caveat Emptor!