Global Market Comments
July 7, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEET THE ITALIAN LEONARDO FIBONACCI)
Global Market Comments
July 7, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEET THE ITALIAN LEONARDO FIBONACCI)
Global Market Comments
July 6, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEET THE GREEKS)
Global Market Comments
July 5, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LEARNING THE ART OF RISK CONTROL)
Now that you know how to make money in the options market, I’m going to teach you how to hang on to it. There is no point in booking winning trades only to lose the money by making careless mistakes. So today, I am going to talk about risk control.
The first goal of risk control is to conserve whatever capital you have. I tell people that I am too old to start over again as a junior trader if I lose all my money. So, I’m pretty careful when it comes to risk control.
The art of risk control is to make sure your portfolio is profitable, no matter what happens to the market. You want to be a winner, whether the market goes up, down, or sideways.
Remember, we are not trying to beat an index here. Our goal is the make actual dollars at all times, and to keep the P&L chart always moving from the lower left to the upper right. You can’t eat relative performance, nor can you use it to pay your bills.
The second goal of a portfolio manager is to make your portfolio bombproof. You never know when a flock of black swans is about to alight on the market, or a geopolitical shock comes out of the blue causing markets to crash.
The biggest mistake I see beginning traders make is that they are in too much of a hurry to get rich. As a result, they lose too much money too soon. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard of first-time traders losing all their money on their first trade, well before they got a handle on the basics.
I’m usually right 80% to 90% of the time. That means I’m wrong 10% to 20% of the time. If you bet the ranch on one of my losing trades, you’ll get taken to the cleaners. Never bet the ranch.
If you do, you are turning calculated risk into random risk. It is akin to buying a lottery ticket. I often tell clients they have gambling addictions. Make sure you’re not one of them. You can’ trade yourself back from zero with no money.
If you can master the skills which I am teaching you, you can make a living at this FOREVER! So, what’s the hurry? As my old trading mentor used to tell me, the Late Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley, “invest in haste, repent in leisure,” a time-tested nostrum in this business.
I recommend that you use NO real money on your first few trades. Start with paper trading only. All of the online trading platforms offer wonderful tools that allow you to practice trading before you try the real thing. If you lose your “pretend money”, no harm, no foul. They don’t want you to go broke either. Broke customers don’t pay commissions.
The more time you spend learning trading, the more money you will get out of it. Remember, work in, money out. Spend at least an hour or two getting to know your own trading platform well.
Once you start trading with real money, it will become a totally different experience. Your heart rate steps up. Your hands get sweaty. You start checking your watch. It’s a lot like going into combat. In fact, combat veterans make great traders, which is why the military recruits so actively from the military. I think all these instincts trace back to our Neanderthal days when our main concern was being chased by a saber-tooth tiger.
The time to learn a trading discipline is NOW. All of a sudden, your opinions, your ego, and your savings are on the line. It’s crucial for you to always start small when using real money.
That way, making a beginner’s mistake, like confusing “BUY” and “SELL” (I see it every day) will only cost you a cup of coffee at Starbucks, and bet your kids' college education, your house, or your retirement. It won’t take long for you to grow from one contract to thousands, as I have done myself for many years.
It’s all about finding your comfort level and risk tolerance. You never want to have a position that is so large that you can’t sleep at night, or worse, call me in the middle of the night. My answer is always the same. Cut your position in half. If you still can’t sleep, cut it in half again.
I make a bold prediction here. The more experience you gain, the faster your risk tolerance goes up.
I’ll give you one more piece of advice. Take your broker's technical support phone number and paste it to the top of your computer monitor. You don’t want to go looking for it when you can’t figure out how to get out of a position, or your platform breaks. These are machines. It happens. As they teach in flight school, it’s not a matter of if, but when, a machine breaks.
There’s one more thing. When you’re ready to commit real money, don’t forget to take your account off of paper trading. The profits you make can’t be spent.
Risk management is an important part of the position sheet I will be sending you every day.
Take a look below at a position sheet I sent out during sharply rising markets, which I update every day.
The important thing to look at here is my long/short balance. On the left is the position name and on the right is the position weighting. I usually run 10% positions so I don’t have all my eggs in one basket. Maybe twice a year, I’ll run a 20% position in a single stock, and once a year I’ll have a 30% weighting. Above that, I start to lose sleep.
I have further subdivided the portfolio into “RISK ON” and “RISK OFF.” “RISK ON” means the world is getting better, while “RISK OFF” means the world is getting worse. The long positions have positive numbers, while the short positions have negative ones.
I like to balance “RISK ON” and “RISK OFF” to remove overall market risk from the portfolio. When markets are rising, I tilt positive. When markets are falling, I tilt negative. At the bottom, I have my total net exposure. On this particular day, I was running 60% in longs and 20% in shorts, for a total net position of 40% long. This is an aggressively bullish portfolio.
When I’m bullish, the net position is positive. When I’m bearish the net position is negative. When I have no strong views, the net position is zero. That way, if nothing happens you still get to rake the money in.
I have no positions at all only a few days a year. I only play when the risk/reward is overwhelmingly in my favor, and sometimes that is just not possible.
One more warning to the wise. There are literally hundreds of gurus out there, marketing services promising 100% a year, if not a 100% a month, or even 100% a day. They are all fake, created by 20-year-old marketing types who have never worked in the stock market, or even traded. Unfortunately, I work in an industry where almost everyone else is a crook.
I have worked in the markets for more than 50 years and have seen everything. Ray Dalio is the top-performing hedge fund manager in history and he only averages 35% a year. The number of real traders who are right more than 80% of the time you can almost count on one hand. If returns sound too good to be true, they never are.
I want to offer special caution about naked put-shorting strategies which are promoted by 90% of these letters. This is where a trader sells short a put position without any accompanying hedge, hence the word “naked.” This is an unlimited risk position.
You might take in a $1 of premium with this approach, but if the market turns against you, and implied volatilities go through the roof, your losses could balloon exponentially to $100 or more, wiping you out. The newsletters recommending these have absolutely no idea when or if this is going to happen.
I call this the “picking up the pennies in front of the steamroller strategy.” No professional trader worth his salt will put money into it. It is banned by most investing institutions. And only a few brokers will still let you do this, and then only with 100% margin requirements because when losses exceed 100% of capital, they’re left carrying the bag.
Many of those strategies you see being hawked online look great on paper but can’t actually be executed. In other words, you just paid thousands of dollars for a service that is utterly useless. Sounds like a “No Go” to me.
Stop losses are an important part of any trading strategy. No one is right 100% of the time. If they claim so, they are lying. The best way to avoid a big loss is to take a small one.
There are many possible places to use stop losses. I use 2% of my total capital. If I start to lose more than that, I am out of there. It’s easy for me to do this because 90% of the time, the next trade will be a winner and I’ll make back all the money I just lost.
Others use a 10% decline in the underlying stock as a good arbitrary point to limit losses. Others rely on Fibonacci levels (I’ll get to him later). Many traders rely on key moving averages, like the 50-Day or the 200-day.
The problem with this is that high-frequency traders have access to the same charting data as you do. They’ll program their algorithms to quickly take a stock through your stop loss level, buy your stock for cheap, and then take it right back up again to book a quick profit. You are left with a “SELL” confirmation in your inbox and no position in a rising market. No wonder people think Wall Street is rigged.
Another concept is the “trailing stop”. That’s when after an initial rise, you place a stop-loss order at your cost. That way you CAN’T lose money. This is known as “playing with the house's money.” This approach has one shortfall. You can’t place stop losses in the options market that are executed automatically. The same is true for options spreads.
In this case, you use what is known as a “pocket stop-loss” where you set your own mental level on when to get out. Also, these are not automatic, they do establish a trading discipline. Caution: You can’t execute a pocket stop loss when you’re playing golf or on a one-week cruise in the Caribbean.
So, there you have it. By managing your risk prudently, you can tip the risk/reward balance in your favor.
I hope this helps.
Global Market Comments
July 1, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO EXECUTE A MAD HEDGE TRADE ALERT)
Global Market Comments
June 30, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PLAYING THE SHORT SIDE WITH VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREADS),
(TLT)
Global Market Comments
June 29, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD),
(AAPL)
Note to Readers: Over the next ten trading days, you will be receiving my options trading boot camp. That's because this week, I’ll be knocking off from my daily routine to dive into some deep research pieces.
Global Market Comments
June 28, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WELCOME TO THE WONDERFUL WORLD OF OPTIONS),
(WHAT IS AN OPTION? - THE BASICS)
Note to Readers: Over the next ten trading days, you will be receiving my options trading boot camp. That's because this week, I’ll be knocking off from my daily routine to dive into some deep research pieces.
Global Market Comments
June 27, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE RECESSION TRADE IS ON)
(MSFT), (NVDA), (TSLA), (BRKB), (TLT), (SPY)
Any doubts that financial markets are fully discounting a recession were completely smashed last week.
It isn’t just the economic data that are rolling over like the Bismarck. Oil plunged 19%, copper is off 22% from its top, and bond yields have collapsed an astonishing 46 bases points in only two weeks, from 3.48% to 3.02%, a cataclysmic move in the bond market.
Asset classes most sensitive to a recession, like industrial commodities, suffered the biggest falls. That’s because if commodities don’t get used immediately they have to be stored at great expense and a million barrels of oil don’t look very pleasant in your backyard.
How did the stock market respond? It loved it. Stocks delivered the first positive week in June. The Dow Average rallied a healthy 1,900 points off the bottom, some 6.41%.
So what gives? Why is every asset class in the world getting trashed while stocks rocket?
It's really very simple. Stocks love lower interest rates. Cut borrowing costs and equities catch a bid. Lower rates more and stocks should further appreciate.
It's not like we are out of the woods yet. We could get another interest rate spike as we move into the next Fed move on interest rates on July 27. That could take us to new lows in stocks, but not by much. Any declines from here will be limited and are worth buying, as I have been arguing for weeks.
Always focus on what is going to happen next for we are in the “what happens next business.”
While broker reports, research, and the news focus on what happened in the past, or rarely today, it is what happens next that determines the performance of your investment portfolio.
Live in the future and there are never any surprises, only rewards.
Powell Highlights the Fed’s Inflation Commitment, even though the principal drivers, OPEX+ and the Ukraine War, are completely out of his control, in testimony in front of congress. The next two 75 basis point rate rises are a sure thing. Number three won’t happen if a recession kicks in before then.
Oil Dives as Recession Fears Mount, off 20% in a week. Oil is the last thing you want to hold going into a recession, as storage fears are at record highs a few tankers are available for charter. Avoid all energy plays like the plague. Too many other better fish to fry.
American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta are Cutting Routes, to deal with staff shortages. Small cities where no money is made, like Toledo, Islip, and Dubuque are the main targets. Reno lost much of its airline services in the last recession for the same reason.
A Real Estate Selloff is Going Global, the effect of rising interest rates worldwide. Auckland, New Zealand, Vancouver, Canada, and Sydney, Australia have suddenly seen homes go heavily offered as free money disappears. The US could be next. In Incline Village, NV homes priced under $1 million are seeing aggressive price cuts to sell, while those over $5 million are maintaining prices.
Electric Vehicles Could Reach a 33% Market Share by 2028 and 54% by 2035, says AlixPartners, a research firm. Automakers are going to have to invest $526 billion to meet this demand. EVs are becoming a dominant factor in the US economy. Keep buying (TSLA) on dips, which has a 12-year head start over everyone and has an 80% global EV market share. You just missed a chance to buy the shares at $635 last week.
Existing Home Sales plunge 3.4% in May to 5.41 million units, Dow 8.6% YOY. Inventories fell slightly, with 1.16 million homes for sale. The median home price rose to a new all-time high of $407,600. Home sales priced under $250,000 are down 27% YOY. Mansions are still selling well nationally.
Industrial Production rises by a modest 0.2% in May. Their recession hasn’t hit here yet.
Bitcoin hit a $17,900 low Asian trading. Bitcoin crash is particularly compelling to watch as it has become a great risk indicator for all asset classes. Ignore it at your peril. It turns out that the wonder of 24/7 trading means it can go down a lot faster. I have no idea where the bottom is so don’t ask. This amount of fear is impossible to quantify.
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of pandemic and the recession, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With oil peaking out soon, and technology hyper-accelerating, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The America coming out the other side will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!
With some of the greatest market volatility in market history, my June month-to-date performance exploded to +9.99%.
My 2022 year-to-date performance ballooned to 51.86%, a new high. The Dow Average is down -13.22% so far in 2022. It is the greatest outperformance on an index since Mad Hedge Fund Trader started 14 years ago. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high 73.27%.
That brings my 14-year total return to 564.42%, some 2.56 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period and a new all-time high. My average annualized return has ratcheted up to 44.85%, easily the highest in the industry.
We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 87 million, up 300,000 in a week and deaths topping 1,016,000 and have only increased by 2,000 in the past week. You can find the data here.
On Monday, June 27 at 8:30 AM, US Durable Goods for May are released.
On Tuesday, June 28 at 7:00 AM, the S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index for April is out.
On Wednesday, June 29 at 7:00 AM, the final read of the US Q1 GDP is published.
On Thursday, June 30 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. We also get US personal Income & Spending.
On Friday, July 1 at 7:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is disclosed. At 2:00 the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is out.
As for me, as this pandemic winds down, I am reminded of a previous one in which I played a role in ending.
After a 30-year effort, the World Health organization was on the verge of wiping out smallpox, a scourge that had been ravaging the human race since its beginning. I have seen Egyptian mummies at the Museum of Cairo that showed the scarring that is the telltale evidence of smallpox, which is fatal in 50% of cases.
By the early 1970s, the dreaded disease was almost gone but still remained in some of the most remote parts of the world. So, they offered a reward to anyone who could find live cases.
To join the American Bicentennial Mt. Everest Expedition in 1976, I took a bus to the eastern edge of Katmandu and started walking. That was the farthest roads went in those days. It was only 150 miles to basecamp and a climb of 14,000 feet.
Some 100 miles in, I was hiking through a remote village, which was a page out of the 14th century, back when families though buckets of sewage into the street. The trail was lined with mud brick two-story homes with wood shingle roofs, with the second story overhanging the first.
As I entered the town, every child ran to their windows to wave, as visitors were so rare. Every smiling face was covered with healing but still bleeding smallpox sores. I was immune, since I received my childhood vaccination, but I kept walking.
Two months later, I returned to Katmandu and wrote to the WHO headquarters in Geneva about the location of the outbreak. A year later I received a letter of thanks at my California address and a check for $100. They told me they had sent in a team to my valley in Nepal and vaccinated the entire population.
Some 15 years later, while on customer calls in Geneva for Morgan Stanley, I stopped by the WHO to visit a scientist I went the school with. It turned out I had become quite famous, as my smallpox cases in Nepal were the last ever discovered.
The WHO certified the world free of smallpox in 1980. The US stopped vaccinating children for smallpox in 1972, as the risks outweighed the reward.
Today, smallpox samples only exist at the CDC in Atlanta frozen in liquid nitrogen at minus 346 degrees Fahrenheit in a high-security level 5 biohazard storage facility. China and Russia probably have the same.
That’s because scientists fear that terrorists might dig up the bodies of some British sailors who were known to have died of smallpox in the 19th century and were buried on the north coast of Greenland, remaining frozen ever since. If you need a new smallpox vaccine, you have to start from somewhere.
As for me, I am now part of the 34% of Americans who remain immune to the disease. I’m glad I could play my own small part in ending it.
Stay healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
On Mt. Everest Smallpox Free in 1976
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