Global Market Comments
May 30, 2022
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL MEMORIAL DAY ISSUE
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(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)
"No better friend, nor worse enemy," says the motto of First Division of the US Marine Corps.
Global Market Comments
May 27, 2022
Fiat Lux
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(HERE IS YOUR NEXT DECADE LONG PLAY),
(CAT), ($COPPER), (FCX), (BHP), (RIO),
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Global Market Comments
May 26, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS A DISASTER)
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG)
Global Market Comments
May 25, 2022
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Global Market Comments
May 24, 2022
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(THE GOVERNMENT’S WAR ON MONEY)
(TESTIMONIAL)
Global Market Comments
May 23, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT)
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (MSFT), (BRKB), (NVDA), (JPM), (BAC), (WFC), ($BTCUSD)
When I first joined Morgan Stanley in 1983, a number of my clients were old enough to have experienced the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression that followed.
One was Sir John Templeton, who confided in me over lunch at his antebellum-style mansion at Lyford Cay in the Bahamas, that his long career started with a lot of excitement, and then became incredibly boring for a decade.
It looks like we entered the incredibly boring phase on January 4, when the stock market began its current downtrend. Last week brought the longest weekly losing streak since 1923, some eight weeks so far.
The market is actually down a lot more than it looks, meaning that we are a lot closer to the bottom than you think. Some 87% of the S&P 500 is down more than 10% and 61% is down 20%. The damage is far worse with the NASDAQ, with some 93% of shares down 10%, and a gut-punching 73% down 20% or more.
While tech has already gone down a lot, some 32% so far this year, it is still trading at an 18% premium to the main market. Remember, in this business, timing is everything. If you invested in tech at the Dotcom peak in 1999, it took you 14 years to break even. Latecomers in this cycle could suffer a similar duration of pain and suffering.
And while these are the kind of moves that usually precede a recession, there is still an overwhelming amount of data that says it won’t happen. We here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader analyze, dissect, and examine data all day long.
I will once again repeat what my UCLA math professor told me a half-century ago. “Statistics are like a bikini bathing suit; what they reveal is fascinating, but what they conceal is essential.”
For a start, 3.6% unemployment rates are not what recessions are made of. Double-digit ones are. The next jobless rate print in June is likely to be down, not up. The country in fact is suffering its worst worker shortage in 80 years. There are currently 6 million more jobs than workers. And wages are rising, putting more money in the pockets of consumers.
Last month, airline ticket prices rose by 25%. Good luck trying to get a plane anywhere as all are full. Last winter, I bought a first-class round-trip ticket from San Francisco to London for $6,000. Today, the same ticket is $10,000. During recessions, planes fly empty, routes get cancelled, and staff laid off. Airlines also go bust and are not subject to the takeover wars we are seeing now.
Recessions also bring dramatic credit crises. Rising default rates force banks to retreat from lending, FICO scores tank, and debt markets dry up. It’s all quiet on the western front now, with all fixed income and liquidity indicators are solidly in the green. And while interest rates are higher, they are nowhere near the peaks seen during past recessions.
All this may explain that after the horrific market moves we have already seen but we may be only 4% from the final bottom in this bear move to an S&P 500 at $3,600, or 7% from an (SPX) of $3,500. That means it is time to start scaling into long-term positions now in the best quality names.
That’s why I have been aggressively piling on call spreads in technology that are 10%-20% in the money with only 19 days to expiration, making money hand over fist.
An interesting headline caught my attention last week. The Russians were stealing farm equipment from Ukraine on an epic scale. When they couldn’t steal it, such as when the electronics were disabled, they were destroying it.
That means the Russians didn’t invade Ukraine to get more beachfront territory on the Black Sea, although that is definitely a plus. They want to destroy a competitor’s agricultural production in order to raise the value of their own output.
Yes, this is the beginning of the Resource Wars that could continue for the rest of this century. Resource producers like the US, Russia, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine will be the big winners. Resource consumers like China, India, and the Middle East will be the big losers.
JP Morgan cuts US GDP Forecasts, with the second half marked down from 3% to 2.4% and 2023 from 2.1% to 1.5%. This means no recession, which requires two back-to-back negative quarters.
China’s Industrial Production collapses by 2.9%, and Retail Sales fell by a shocking 11.1%. The Shanghai shutdown is to blame. It means longer supply chain disruptions for longer and another drag on our own economy. If Tesla has a bad quarter, it will be because of a shortage of vehicles in China. So, will the end of Covid in China bring the bull market back in the US?
The US Budget Deficit is in free fall, putting our hefty bond shorts at risk. While Trump was president the national debt exploded by $4 trillion, a dream come true for bond shorts. Since Biden became president, the annual budget deficit has plunged from $3.1 trillion to $360 billion for the first seven months of fiscal 2022, and we could approach zero by yearend. An exploding economy has sent tax revenues soaring, and taxpayers still have to pay a gigantic bill for last year’s monster capital gains in the stock market. Biden has also been unable to get many spending bills through the Senate, where he lacks a clear majority.
India Bans Food Exports. Climate change is destroying its output with heat waves, while the Ukraine War has eliminated 13% of the world’s calories. This is a problem when you have 1.2 billion to feed. Expect food inflation to worsen.
Consumer Sentiment hits an 11-year low according to the University of Michigan, dipping from 64 to 59.1. Record gas prices and soaring inflation are the reasons, but spending remains strong off the super strong jobs market.
Homebuilder Sentiment hits a two-year low, down from 77 to 69 in May, according to the National Association of Homebuilders. Recession fears and soaring interest rates are the big reasons.
Building Permits dive in April by 3.2%, and single family permits were down 4.6%. The onslaught of bad news for housing continues. Avoid.
Target implodes on terrible earnings, taking the stock down 25%, the worst in 40 years. They finally got the inventory they wanted. Too bad consumers are too poor to buy it with $6.00 a gallon.
Commodities send Battery Costs soaring by 22%. Who knew you were going long copper, lithium, and chromium when you bought your Tesla? It’s a good thing you did. Now you can give the middle finger salute when you drive past gas stations.
Average Household now spending $5,000 a year on gasoline, which is $5,000 they’re not spending on anything else. Just ask Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT).
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still historically cheap, oil peaking out soon, and technology hyper-accelerating, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The America coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!
With some of the greatest market volatility seen since 1987, my May month-to-date performance recovered to +4.79%.
My 2022 year-to-date performance exploded to 34.97%, a new high. The Dow Average is down -16.4% so far in 2022. It is the greatest outperformance on an index since Mad Hedge Fund Trader started 14 years ago. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high 62.99%.
This week, I added new long positions in Visa (V) and Microsoft (MSFT) when the Volatility Index (VIX) was in the mid $30s. I also did a nice round trip on an Apple (AAPL) short which brought in $1,740. I also took profits on two longs in the (SPY) and two shorts in the (TLT). Overall, it was a great week!
That brings my 14-year total return to 547.53%, some 2.40 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period and a new all-time high. My average annualized return has ratcheted up to 43.78%, easily the highest in the industry.
We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 82.5 million, up 300,000 in a week and deaths topping 1,000,000 and have only increased by 2,000 in the past week. You can find the data here.
On Monday, May 23 at 8:30 AM EST, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April is out.
On Tuesday, May 24 at 8:30 AM, New Home Sales for April are released.
On Wednesday, May 25 at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods for April are published.
On Thursday, May 26 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are disclosed. The first look at Q2 GDP is printed.
On Friday, May 27 at 8:30 AM, Personal Income & Spending is out. At 2:00 the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is out.
As for me, one of my fondest memories takes me back to England in 1984 for the 40th anniversary of the D-Day invasion of France. On June 6, 160,000 Americans stormed Utah and Omaha beaches, paving the way for the end of WWII.
My own Uncle Al was a participant and used to thrill me with his hair-raising D-Day experiences. When he passed away, I inherited the P-38 Walther he captured from a German officer that day.
The British government wanted to go all out to make this celebration a big one as this was expected to be the last when most veterans, now in their late fifties and sixties, were in reasonable health. President Ronald Reagan and prime minister Margaret Thatcher were to be the keynote speakers.
The Royal Air Force was planning a fly past of their entire fleet that started over Buckingham Palace, went on the to the debarkation ports at Southampton and Portsmouth, and then over the invasion beaches. It was to be led by a WWII Lancaster bomber, two Supermarine Spitfire, and two Hawker Hurricane fighters.
The only thing missing was American aircraft. The Naval and Military Club in London, where I am still a member, wondered if I would be willing to participate with my own US-registered twin-engine plane?
“Hell yes,” was my response.
Of course, the big concern was the weather, as it was in 1944. Our prayers were answered with a crystal clear day and a gentle westerly wind. The entire RAF was in the air, and I found myself the tail end Charlie following 175 planes. I was joined by my uncle, Medal of Honor winner Colonel Mitchell Paige.
We flew 500 feet right over the Palace. I could clearly see the Queen, a WWII veteran herself, Prince Philip, Lady Diana, and her family waving from the front balcony. Massive shoulder-to-shoulder crowds packed St. James Park in front.
As I passed over the coast, much of the Royal Navy were out letting their horns go full blast. Then it was southeast to the beaches. I flew over Pont du Hoc, which after 40 years still looked like a green moonscape, after a very heavy bombardment.
In one of the most courageous acts in American history, a company of Army Rangers battled their way up 100-foot sheer cliffs. After losing a third of their men, they discovered that the heavy guns they were supposed to disable turned out to be telephone poles. The real guns had been moved inland 400 yards.
We peeled off from the air armada and landed at Caen Aerodrome. Taxiing to my parking space, I drove over the rails for a German V2 launching pad. I took a car to the Normandy American Cemetery at Colleville-sur-Mer where Reagan and Thatcher were making their speeches in front of 9,400 neatly manicured graves.
There were thousands of veterans present from all the participating countries, some wearing period uniforms, most wearing ribbons. At one point, men from the 101st Airborne Division parachuted overhead from vintage DC-3’s and landed near the cemetery.
Even though some men were in their sixties and seventies, they still made successful jumps, landing with big grins on their faces. The task was made far easier without the 100 pounds of gear they carried in 1944.
The 78th anniversary of the D-Day invasion is coming up shortly. I won’t be attending this time but will remember my own fine day there so many years ago.
Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Pont du Hoc
Global Market Comments
May 20, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAY 18 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(C), (FXI), (BABA), (TSLA), (AAPL), (AMZN), (TGT), (FLR), (QQQ),
(FB), (ARKK), (TSLA), (WYNN), (UAL), (ALK), (DAL)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the May 18 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley.
Q: When do you see the banks returning to glory?
A: When recession fears go away, which should happen this summer. A recession will either have come and gone, or we will have confirmation by the end of summer that there is no recession in sight for the next few years at least. This will likely trigger a monster rally in the banks, which could all jump 50% from here. Obviously, Warren Buffet is putting his money where his mouth is by loading up on Citibank (C) yesterday. This would take us to new all-time highs by the end of the year. So, again, use these down-1000-point days to go cherry-picking among the generals who have been executed. If that’s not mixing metaphors, I don’t know what is!
Q: Should I listen to CNBC?
A: No, do not listen to the talking heads on TV. They are on TV because they don’t know how to make money. If they did know how to make money, they’d be locked up in a dark basement somewhere like me, grinding out millions for their firms. In fact, watching TV is the perfect money destruction machine because on down days, they bring out the uber bears, and on up days they bring up the hyper bulls. They are trying to egg you to get you to do the exact opposite of what you should be doing. They’re not interested in you making money; they’re interested in getting traffic on their websites and making money for themselves. CNBC can be highly dangerous to your financial health.
Q: Will we get stagflation?
A: No, because I think that once the year-on-year comparisons kick in—literally in a month or two—inflation will drop from the current 8.3% to down maybe 4% by the end of the year. That also is another factor in your monster second-half rally.
Q: Do you think the bounce in the market yesterday is the beginning of an upward trend or a dead cat bounce?
A: Definitely a dead cat bounce. I expect we’ll keep chopping around in the current range for the next 3, 4, and 5 months, and then we catapult into a monster year-end rally. That is a typical bottoming-type process.
Q: Is the wisdom “Go away in May” still alive or is your best bet that this year may prove different and the market goes up in the latter part of the year?
A: Actually, you should have gone away in November. That’s when all tech stocks peaked; only energy went up after that. If you’d gone away in November and said “come back in August” that would have been a good strategy because I think that’s when the year-end rally begins. If anything, May could be the bottom of the entire move.
Q: Is it time for LEAPS (Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities)?
A: Not yet—it’s too soon for LEAPS territory. You only want to do LEAPS when you are on a sustained long-term uptrend in a stock. We are nowhere near sustained anything, we are still in a bottoming phase, and could be there for months. At the end of those months is when we’ll be looking at LEAPS, where you can double your money every 6 months.
Q: Is it time to start nibbling on China stocks (FXI) now that COVID news is marginally better?
A: I’m going to avoid Chinese stocks because the American ones are so much better. You want to buy the quality at the discount, not the marginal, high-risk political footballs at a discount. And China will remain high-risk as long as they are abandoning capitalism. If you have to buy one Chinese stock, I would say Alibaba (BABA); you could get a double on that. But remember it is a high-risk trade—if the Chinese government wants to roll Jack Ma up in a carpet and kidnap him to Western Chinese re-education camp, the stock will get slaughtered. And that’s been happening increasingly with the heads of major companies in the Middle Kingdom.
Q: When this current route comes to an end, should we look to enter the market with 50% margin on stocks like Tesla (TSLA)?
A: It’s never sensible to go to 50% margin because if the stocks drop 50%, you are completely wiped out—you’ve lost everything. Plus, coming back from a loss is one thing; coming back from zero is impossible. So, I would not recommend that. You might do a safe stock like Apple (APPL), with a 2% dividend, and then at least you’re getting a double dividend. You only do the 50% margin on the safest, high dividend stocks.
Q: Amazon (AMZN) is on its way down. What is your expectation for the $3200/$3400 vertical bull call spread in January 2023?
A: I think you could make money on that. It may not be the full amount of the spread, but you’ll definitely get a big increase from current levels, because when we do get a second half rally, it will be tech-led, and Amazon has already had a horrific decline. What you might consider is rolling your strike down, taking the loss on the 3200/3400 and rolling down to like a $2,000/$2,200 in twice the size, and you’ll make your money back that way.
Q: For those of us thinking about LEAPS, how should we start to buy in—20, 30, 50% right now?
A: Well, first of all, you only do them on down days like today, when the market is down 800, and you scale in. 20% now, 20% higher or lower, and 20% again higher or lower. But you really want to be saving cash for days like this because You want to feel smarter than everybody else, and they absolutely will hit any bid on a down day, and that's where your LEAPS fills are really excellent, is on a down day like this.
Q: Can the Fed avoid another policy mistake? Because it seems that not only are they heading for high inflation, but layoffs are coming as well, and even with that I’m sure they will perform a soft landing of sorts.
A: For sure, when you take massive amounts of stimulus out of the economy, as we have in the last year, that is recessionary. In fact, the US government is close to running a balance budget right now because Biden can’t get anything through Congress other than money for Ukraine. Good for Ukraine economy, not for ours. And yes, they can do a soft landing, but has it ever been done before? No. Though this is the Fed that just keeps on surprising, so who knows. In the meantime, I'm willing to trade the ranges, and that may be all you get to do for a while.
Q: Target (TGT) shares are down 25%, as they cited higher costs that will result in rising prices for their customers. Would you buy the dip?
A: No, I generally don’t like retailers anyway. It’s a business that operates on a 2% profit margin. I like 40 or 50% profit margin businesses—those tend to be technology stocks.
Q: Would you buy retailers going into a recession?
A: No, that’s the worst thing in the world to own.
Q: Could Fluor Corp (FLR) be a Ukraine infrastructure stock?
A: Yes, once the war ends there will be a massive effort to rebuild Ukraine. Every company in the world will be involved, and Fluor and Bechtel will be the biggest, though Fluor is the only one where you can buy the stock. We already have the money to do this with all of the money that was seized from Russia. I predict discount sales on mega yachts.
Q: Why do you think all that money is going to Ukraine?
A: Because a weakened Russia is in the national interest of the United States, and it’s better that their soldiers are doing the dying than ours. I’ve done the latter and definitely prefer the former, using the other country's’soldiers as cannon fodder.
Q: On down days like today, should I be putting on one-month trades like the June options?
A: Yes, because the minimizes your risk and cuts the cost of mistakes. Waiting for the second half of the year when we get a prolonged uptrend to look at LEAPS—that is the correct way to do it.
Q: Over the next 12 months, do you think the S&P 500 will outperform Nasdaq?
A: No—for the next 3 months the S&P 500 will outperform NASDAQ. After that, NASDAQ will become an enormous outperformer for the rest of the decade. So, choose your entry points wisely.
Q: Do you think that housing is peaking out and will start to decline?
A: No, we still have a long-term structural shortage of 10 million homes in the US and I think we will flatline housing for years until we catch up with that shortfall.
Q: What are your thoughts on the Metaverse?
A: Too soon. Right now, the Metaverse involves spending only—no revenues. It could be years before you actually see any profits. So that’s why I'm avoiding Meta or Facebook (FB). But then, you could have made the same argument about the internet 25 years ago and semiconductors 50 years ago. If you waited long enough, however, you obviously made a fortune.
Q: China is hoarding 69% of their wheat reserves. Is this because they plan to invade Taiwan?
A: No, it’s because there’s a global food crisis going on. Many countries, like India, have banned exports of food to protect themselves. People miss this about China: China will never have a war or invade anybody, because the second they do, their food supplies get cut off by us, who are the world’s largest producer of food. Plus, their trade would get shut off to pay for it, so they can’t buy it from somewhere else, and that’s done with us also. So, they need to be in our good graces in order to eat. That's the bottom line and that’s why Taiwan will never get invaded. Russia’s economy can operate independently for a while, but China’s can’t.
Q: Is the baby food shortage further evidence of a food crisis?
A: No, the baby formula crisis is being caused by a monopoly of three companies that control 100% of the baby food market; and the largest of these companies, accounting for a 40% market share of the baby food making, is producing baby food that is poisonous. That's why they got shut down. This has been going on for years, and for some reason, they got a free pass on regulation and inspections by the previous administration, which is ending now, and all of a sudden we’re finding out that 40% of the country’s baby food is contaminated and is being pulled off the market. So, it really has nothing to do with the global food crisis. That’s more related to Climate change—surprise, surprise—as it’s not raining in the right places like California, the war in Ukraine, which removed 13% of the world’s calories practically overnight.
Q: Should I bet the farm here with the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK)? I like Cathie Woods’ bet on innovation or five-year time horizon. It’s a great thing, don’t you think?
A: Not so great when you drop 70% in the last year. And it is a high-risk bet that of her ten largest holding companies, you only need one of them to work for the fund to bring in a decent return. Of course, you may have to write off nine other companies to do that. But yes, it’s a great thing to own on the way up, not so great on the way down. I know some people who started scaling into ARK in November and came to regret it. I would wait on it—this is your highest leverage technology play, and if you really want some punishment, there’s a hedge fund that’s bringing out a 2X long ARK fund in the next couple of months. Then it’s basically option money you’re throwing out. If you want to put some money in that, you could get a 10x on the 2x ETF if you’re playing a recovery in ARK. So watch it; don’t touch it now because ARK is having another heart attack today, but something to consider if you like gambling.
Q: I am full up with a thousand shares of PayPal (PYPL). It’s now down 76%. What should I do?
A: I recommend you learn the art of stop losses. I stopped out of this thing last fall, and it’s continued to go down virtually every day. Whenever you buy a new position, automatically enter into your spreadsheet your stop loss for that position. Because things can drop by 80 or 90% and you work too hard for your money to throw it away on these big losses.
Q: What do you think about Steve Wynn and Wynn Hotels?
A: I’d be buying down here down 62%; it was announced today that Steve Wynn has secretly been acting as an agent for the Chinese government where (WYNN) has a major part of its operations. Who knew? With all those high rollers being flown in on private jets from China, sitting at the tables in the closed rooms. So yes, this is a recovery play and it will do just as well as all other recovery plays, but remember it’s a China recovery play. And I think, in any case, his ex-wife owns a big part of the company anyway. So I don’t think Steve Wynn is that closely connected with Wynn hotels because of past transgressions with the female staff.
Q: Is it time to scale into Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)?
A: I’d say yes. On a longer-term view, I expect (FCX) to go to $100. And for those who have the May $32/$35 call spread that expires on Friday, my bet is that you get the max profit—but you may not sleep before then.
Q: What do you have to say about a post-Putin scenario and impact on the market?
A: The day Putin dies of a heart attack, you can count on the market being up 10%, if that happens right now—less if it happens at a later date. But it would be hugely bullish for the entire global stock market, and oil would also collapse, which is why I refuse to put on oil plays here. That is a risk. Putin can give up, have an accident, or get overthrown. When the Russian people see their standard of living decline by 90%, this is a country that has a long history of revolutions, putting their leaders in front of firing squads and throwing the bodies down wells. So, if I were Putin, I wouldn't be sleeping very well right now.
Q: What's the reason for air tickets (UAL), (ALK), (DAL) going up sharply?
A: 1. Shortage of airplanes 2. Soaring fuel costs 3. Labor shortages and strikes 4. It is all proof of an economy that is definitely NOT going into recession.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
With Lieutenant Uhuru