Global Market Comments
November 8, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or A PERFECT UPSIDE STORM),
(GOOGL), (MSFT), (GS), (MS), (BRKB), (ROM), (TLT), (TBT)
(BITO), (ETHE)
Welcome to the perfect storm.
If there was ever any doubt that the market was going straight up for the rest of the year, it was dashed when the infrastructure budget passed on late Friday night with bipartisan support. Another $1.2 trillion will be dumped into the economy next year, adding 6% to GDP growth.
Of course, the stock market started sniffing out this possibility and resumed racing yet again to new all-time highs on September 30.
The latest round of earnings reports proved that corporate profit margins are exploding, along with profits. Demand is through the roof. It turned out that demand WASN’T lost, just deferred, as I vociferously begged followers to buy stocks at the April 2020 bottom.
Interest rates went down instead of up sharply on news of the Fed taper.
And the 10% correction that many expected never showed, forcing managers to chase the market so they can be seen as fully invested in the right names at yearend. That means buying more Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) at whatever price so managers can look like the brilliant people that they really AREN’T.
There is no doubt that the economic data is turning from mixed to red hot.
We will see a Capital spending renaissance in 2022 as the economy shifts from manufacturing to service-driven, and services account for 80% of US GDP. It’s a perfect formula for an economy that is catching on fire.
As for the missing 5 million workers, I think what we are seeing is a 9/11 effect. That’s when people become aware of the transitory nature of life and ask themselves why they are working at a job they hate, some 80% of the labor force, especially at the minimum wage level. They retrain for better-paying, more meaningful professions, retire early, or otherwise go missing in action.
There is another category of missing workers: those who have made so much in the stock market and Bitcoin in the last 18 months they never have to work another day in their life. Are there 5 million of them? Maybe.
And how come everybody in the world knows that interest rates are rising except the bond market? The United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) has seen two, count them, two massive three-point RALLIES in the last ten days. The (TLT) may give all this back this week when we get hot inflation data.
It is a positioning issue and a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” on interest rates. When the entire world is short bonds, they can only go UP. This means we are likely to see a $141-$151 (TLT) range in bonds for the next six months until we start to see actual interest rate RISES.
The Fed Tapers! The Fed taper starts immediately and will accelerate in 2022 until it goes to zero by June. Stocks took off, while bonds dove a $1.50 as soon as they noticed that “transitory” was missing from the release. Will the first interest rate hike in four years be moved up to June? Or do we get a double rate hike in December 2022? That’s where we may see the real volatility, after the market close. Semiconductor growth stocks hit new all-time highs. Financials moving back to highs, as are big tech stocks.
Q3 GDP comes in at a weak 2.0%, down from a 6% rate in Q2, thanks to the ravages of the delta virus, now in the rearview mirror. What happens next? That 4% wasn’t lost, just deferred into 2022. The rip-roaring 6% growth rate returns. That’s why stocks are pushing up to new all-time highs right now. I’m looking for a 5% growth rate next year as government stimulus spending eventually fades.
Nonfarm Payroll Report explodes to the upside in October at 531,000. The Headline Unemployment Rate drops to 4.6%. Pandemic benefits have ended, and a wider vaccination rate encouraged workers it is safe to go back on the job. The back months were revised up 250,000. Manufacturing was up 60,000 and Leisure & Hospitality was up 164,000, The U-6 “discouraged worker” unemployment rate fell to 8.3%. And there is massive pent-up hiring is yet to come. The US could see full employment by the end of Q3 anticipating a 6% GDP growth rate. The markets loved it and the (SPY) is zeroing in my $475 yearend target.
Inflation is rampaging, according to the Department of Commerce, which saw a sizzling 4.4% rate in September. That’s the fastest rate in 30 years. Rising energy and wage costs are big issues. This is why Goldman Sachs has moved up its forecast for the first interest rate rise to July 2022.
US Consumer Spending bounces back, up 0.6% in September after a hot 1% move in August. Demand for services took the lead as shortages head off spending on goods, like cars.
Ethereum hits a new all-time high, ticking at $4,670 in response to the Fed’s immediate taper. Bitcoin is still consolidating its recent three-month doubling. Buy (BITO), (ETHE), and (BLOK) on dips.
US Stock Buy Backs hit record in Q3, topping a staggering $224 billion, and the best is yet to come as companies try to burn through 2021 repurchase budgets. And you wonder why the stock market is going up?
US Dollar hits one-year high on red hot jobs data, presaging higher interest rates. Everyone seems to know that rates are rising except the bond market.
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!
My Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch saw a massive +8.95% gain in October, followed by a decent 1.74% so far in November. My 2021 year-to-date performance maintained 90.30%. The Dow Average is up 16.7% so far in 2021.
After the recent ballistic move in the market, I am continuing to run my longs in Those include (MS), (GS), (BAC), (BRKB), and a short in the (TLT). All are approaching their maximum profit point and we have nothing left but time decay to capture. So, I am going to run these into the November 19 expiration in 9 trading days. It’s like having a rich uncle write you a check one a day.
That brings my 12-year total return to 512.85%, some 2.00 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My 12-year average annualized return now stands at an unbelievable 43.04 easily the highest in the industry.
My trailing one-year return popped back to positively eye-popping 112.94%. I truly have to pinch myself when I see numbers like this. I bet many of you are making the biggest money of your long lives.
We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 46.5 million and rising quickly and approaching 755,000 deaths, which you can find here.
The coming week will be all about the inflation numbers.
On Monday, November 8 at 9:00 AM, US Consumer Inflation Expectations for October are out. PayPal reports.
On Tuesday, November 9 at 8:30 AM, the all-important Producer Price Index is published. DR Horton (DHI) reports.
On Wednesday, November 10 at 8:30 AM, the Core Inflation Rate for October is printed. Walt Disney reports (DIS).
On Thursday, November 11 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced.
On Friday, November 12 at 8:30 AM, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is announced.
At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is disclosed.
As for me, dentists find my mouth fascinating as it is like a tour of the world. I have gold inlays from Japan, cheap ceramic fillings from Britain’s National Health, and loads of American silver amalgam.
But my front teeth are the most interesting as they were knocked out in a riot in Paris in 1968.
France was on fire that year. Riots on the city’s South Bank near Sorbonne University were a daily occurrence. A dozen blue police buses packed with riot police were permanently parked in front of the Notre Dame Cathedral ready for a rapid response across the river.
President Charles de Gaulle was in hiding at a French airbase in Germany. Many compared chaos to the modern-day equivalent of the French Revolution.
So, of course, I had to go.
This was back when there were five French francs to the US dollar and you could live on a loaf of bread, a chunk of cheese, and a bottle of wine for a dollar a day. I was 16.
The Paris Metro cost one franc. To save money, I camped out every night in the Parc des Buttes Chaumont, which had nice bridges to sleep under. When it rained, I visited the Louvre, taking advantage of my free student access. I got to know every corner. The French are great at castles….and museums.
To wash I would jump in the Seine River every once in a while. But in those days, not many people in France took baths anyway.
I joined a massive protest one night which originally began over the right of men to visit the women’s dorms at night. Then the police attacked. Demonstrators came equipped with crowbars and shovels to dig up heavy cobblestones dating to the 17th century to throw at the police, who then threw them back.
I got hit squarely in the mouth with an airborne projectile. My front teeth went flying and I never found them. I managed to get temporary crowns which lasted me until I got home. I carry a scar across my mouth to this day.
I visited the Left Bank just before the pandemic hit in 2019. The streets were all paved with asphalt to make the cobblestones underneath inaccessible. I showed my kids the bridges I used to sleep under, but they were unimpressed.
But when I showed them the Mona Lisa at the Louvre, she was as enigmatic as ever.
Everyone should have at least one Paris in 1968 in their lifetime. I’ve had many and am richer for it.
Stay Healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
1968
2019
“It would be a shame if crypto players spent all their time focusing on the 13th dog altcoin and completely missed Bitcoin, the greatest invention of the century,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, which has invested his firm’s entire assets in Bitcoin, now worth $8.4 billion.
Global Market Comments
November 5, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 3 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(BRKB), (COIN), (IWM), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (MS), (GS), (JPM),
(BABA), (BIDU), (JD), (ROM), (PYPL), (FXE), (FXA), (FXB), (CRSP), (TSLA), (FXI), (BITO), (ETHE), (TLT), (TBT), (BITO), (CGW)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the November 3 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from the safety of Silicon
Valley.
Q: Have you considered buying Coinbase (COIN)?
A: Yes, we actually recommended it as part of our Bitcoin service in the early days back in July. It’s gone up 62% since then, right along with the Bitcoin move itself. So yeah, buy (COIN) on dips—and there will be dips because it will be at least triple the volatility of the main market. And be sure to dollar cost average.
Q: Do you think the breakout in small caps (IWM) will hold and, if so, should we focus on small-c growth?
A: Yes it will hold, but no I would focus on the big cap barbells, which will lead this rally for the next 6 months. And there you’re talking about the best of tech which is Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), and the best of financials which is Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JP Morgan (JPM).
Q: Why not time the webinar for after the FOMC? What will be the market reaction?
A: Well, first of all, we already know what they’re going to say—it’s been heavily leaked in the last week. The market reaction will be initially a potential sharp down move that lasts a few minutes or hours, and then we start a grind up for the next two months. So that's why I wanted to be 80% leverage long going into this. Second, we have broadcast this webinar at the same time for the last 13 years and if we change the time we will lose half our customers.
Q: Why do you always do debit spreads?
A: They’re easier for beginners to understand. That’s the only reason. If you’re sophisticated enough to do a credit spread, the results will be the same but the liquidity will be slightly better, and you can also apply that credit to meet your margin requirements. We have a lot of basic beginners signing up for our service in addition to seasoned pros and I always encourage people to do what they're most comfortable with.
Q: Are you still comfortable with the Morgan Stanley (MS) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) positions?
A: I expect both to go up 10-20% by March, so that’s pretty comfortable. By the way, if you have extremely deep in the money call spreads on Goldman Sachs or Morgan, consider taking profits on those and rolling your strikes up. If you have like the $360-$380 vertical bull call spread in Goldman Sachs, realize that gain and roll up to the $420-$430 March position in Goldman Sachs—that will give you another 100% profit by March. With the $360-$ 380s, you have like 97% of the profit already in the price, there’s no leverage left and no point in continuing, you can only go down.
Q: What should I do with my China position?
A: Sell all your positions in China, realize all the losses now so you can offset those with all the huge profits on all your other positions this year. There I’m talking about Ali Baba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), and (JD), which have been absolutely hammered anywhere from down 50% to down 70%. And do it now before everyone else does it for the same reasons.
Q: Thoughts on Paypal (PYPL) lately?
A: The stock is out of favor as money is moving out of PayPal into newer fintech stocks. The move down is totally unjustified and screaming long term buy here, but for the short-term investors are going to raid the piggy bank, sell the PayPal, and go into the newer apps. This has been my biggest money-losing trade personally this year because PayPal long-term has a great story.
Q: Will earnings fall off next year due to prior year comparisons or supply chain?
A: No, if anything, earnings are accelerating because supply chain problems mean you can charge customers whatever you want and therefore increase margins, which is why the stock market is going up.
Q: Long term, what would your wrong strikes be?
A: I would say don’t get greedy. I’m doing the ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM) $120-$125 call spread for May expiration—the longest expiration they offer. That gives you about 100% return in 6 months; 100% is good enough for me because then I’ll do the same thing again in May and get another 100%. What’s 100% x 100%? It’s 400% because you’re reinvesting a much larger capital base the second time around. If a 100% profit in six months is not enough for you then you are in the wrong line of business.
Q: Do you think Ethereum (ETHE) has long-term potential upside?
A: Yes, is a 10X move enough? We just had a major new high in Ethereum because they made moves to limit the production of new Ethereum. Ethereum is the superior technology because its architecture avoids the code repeats that Bitcoin does and therefore only uses a third of the electricity to create. But Bitcoin is attracting the big institutional cash flows because they have an early mover advantage. By the way, how much electricity does crypto mining consume? The entire consumption of Washington state in a year, so it’s a big deal.
Q: What should I do about Crisper Therapeutics (CRSP)?
Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) is my other disaster for this year because ignored the move up to $170—we’re now back into the $90’s again. So, I have 2023 LEAPS on that; I’m going to keep them, I’ve already suffered the damage, but the next time it goes up to $170 I’m selling! Once burned, twice forewarned. And part of the problem with the whole biotech sector is we are now in the back end of the pandemic and anything healthcare-related will get hit, except for the vaccine stocks like Pfizer (PFE) which are still making billions and billions of dollars.
Q: I bought Baidu (BIDU) and Alibaba (BABA) years ago at a much lower price and I'm still up quite a lot; what should I do?
A: If you have the big cushion, I would keep them and look for #1 recovery in the Chinese economy next year and #2 for the government to back off from their idiotic anticapitalism strategy because it’s costing them so much money.
Q: Is Robinhood (HOOD) a good LEAP candidate?
A: Only on a really big dip, and then you want to go out two years. With a stock that’s volatile as hell like Robinhood and could drop by half on no notice, so you only buy the big dips. It’s not a slowly grinding upward stock like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) where you can add LEAPS now because you know it’s going to keep grinding up.
Q: How can Morgan Stanley go up when the chief strategist is bearish?
A: Their customers aren't listening to their chief strategist—they’re buying. And the volume of the stock, which is where Morgan Stanley makes money, is going through the roof, they’re making record profits there. And I've got Morgan Stanley stock coming out of my ears in LEAPS and so forth.
Q: What are 5 stocks you would buy right now?
A: Easy: Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JP Morgan (JPM). Buy whatever is down that day. They’re all going up.
Q: Too late to buy Tesla (TSLA) calls?
A: Yes, it is. Tesla has a long history of 40% corrections; we had one that ended in May, and then it doubled (and then some). So yeah, too late to buy the calls here. Go back and read my research from May which said buy the stock and you get a car for free—and that worked again, except this time, you can get three free Tesla’s. A lot of subscribers have sent me pictures of their Teslas they got for free on my advice; I’m probably the largest salesman for Tesla for the last 10 years and all I got out of it was a free Powerwall (the red one)..
Q: How much higher do you think semiconductor companies will go?
A: Higher but it’s impossible to quantify. You’re getting very speculative short-term buying in there. So, I think it continues to the rest of the year, but with chips, you never know.
Q: Would you be buying Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) at these levels?
A: Yes, but I would either just buy the stock and not be dependent on the calendar or buy a 2 ½ year LEAP and get an easy double on that.
Q: What about the currencies?
A: I don’t see much action in the currencies as long as the US is raising interest rates. I think the Euro (FXE), the Aussie (FXA), and the British pound (FXB) will be dead for the time being. Nobody wants to sell them but nobody wants to buy them either when you’re looking at a potential short term rise in the dollar from rising interest rates.
Q: What stable coins are the right answer for cryptocurrency?
A: The US dollar stable coin, but for price appreciation, you’re really looking at Bitcoin and Ethereum. Stable coins are stable, they don’t move; you want stuff that’s going to go up 5, 10, or 20 times over the next 10 years like Bitcoin (BITO) and Ethereum (ETHE). That is my crypto answer.
Q: What should I do about the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) $135-$140 put spread expiring in January?
A: If we get another run down to the $141 level that we saw last month, I would come out of all short treasury positions because you’re starting to run into time decay problems with the January expirations. And in case we remain in a range for some reason, I would be taking profits at the bottom end of the range. It was my mistake that I didn’t grab those profits when we hit $141 last time. So don’t let profits grow hair on them, they tend to disappear. We lost six months on this trade due to the delta virus and the mini-recession it brought us.
Q: Will there be accelerated tech selling in December because of the new tax rates?
A: What new tax rates? There has been no new tax bill passed and even if there were, I think people wouldn’t tax sell this year because the profits are enormous. They would rather do any selling in January at higher prices and then defer payment of those taxes by 18 months. I don’t think there will be any tax issues this year at all.
Q: What’s your return on solar power investments?
A: My break-even was four years because our local utility, PG&E, went bankrupt and the only way they're getting out of bankruptcy is raising electricity prices by 10% a year. It turns out that as a result of global warming, the panels have operated at a higher efficiency as well, so we’re getting a lot more power output than originally expected. Now I get free electricity for the remaining 20-year life of the panels which is great because with two Tesla’s and all-electric heating and air conditioning I use a lot of juice. My monthly bill is a sight to behold. I also power the 20 surrounding houses and for that PG&E pays me $1,800 a month.
Q: Do you see China (FXI) invading Taiwan as a potential threat to the market?
A: China will never invade Taiwan. They own many of the companies they're already in, they de facto control Taiwan government from a distance; they would not risk the international consequences of an actual invasion. And we have the US seventh fleet there to stop exactly that. So, they can make all the noise they want but nothing will come of it. I’ve been watching this for 50 years and nothing has ever happened.
Q: Would you buy ProShares Ultrashort 20+ Treasury ETF (TBT) here?
A: Absolutely, with both hands, all I can get.
Q: Can you recommend any water ETF opportunity?
A: Yes there is one I wrote a piece on last month. It’s the Claymore S&P Global Water Index ETF (CGW).
Q: How long can you hold the (TBT) before time decay hurts?
A: It doesn’t hurt, the cost of the TBT is two times the 10-year rate. So that would be 3%, plus 1% a year for management fees, and that’s your slippage on the TBT in a year right now—it’s 4%. Remember if you’re short the bond market, you have to pay the coupon when you’re short. Double the bond market and you have to pay double the coupon.
Q: Is the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) a good alternative to buying bitcoin?
A: I would say yes because I’ve been watching the tracking on that very carefully and it’s pretty damn close. Plus there’s a lot of liquidity there, so yeah, buy the (BITO) ETF on dips and dollar cost average.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
November 4, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY THE REAL ESTATE BOOM HAS A DECADE TO RUN),
(DHI), (LEN), (PHM), (ITB)
Global Market Comments
November 3, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TESTIMONIAL),
(DECODING THE GREENBACK),
(WHAT ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION?)
I watched John Thomas for a year before jumping in, and I should have done it earlier when he phenomenally traded that awful year, 2011, that whipsawed so many investors including myself.
He again outperformed the market in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and so far he has shown amazing skill once more in navigating treacherous markets with deep-in-the-money call and put spreads.
You can not exactly replicate his numbers 100% of the time for many different reasons, some of them strictly technical in nature.
But you will get most of them, or you can use his trade alerts just directionally to help you determine where you should put your money and how to allocate your dollars risk-on vs. risk-off.
I am up 20% trading with John since October 2015. I also like John's in-depth charts, market insights, and his educational webinars, that have become the cornerstone of my market evaluations.
One should never put all eggs in the same basket, but subscribing to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader is a smart way to enhance the performance of your stock portfolio.
Christian
Austin, Texas
Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day, which I absolutely cannot answer.
The reason is simple: no two investors are alike. The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $1 billion, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on.
This is something you should ask your financial advisor if you haven’t fired him already, which you probably should.
Having said all that, there is one old hard and fast rule, which you should probably dump. It used to be prudent to own your age in bonds. So if you were 70, you should have had 70% of your assets in fixed income instruments and 30% in equities.
Given the extreme overvaluation of all bonds today, and that we have probably just entered a 30-year bear market, I would completely ignore this rule and own no bonds.
Instead, you should substitute high dividend-paying stocks for bonds. You can get 4% a year or more in yields these days, and get a great inflation hedge, to boot. You will also own what everyone else in the world is trying to buy right now, high-yield US stocks.
Allocation: Are You Him?
Or Him?
Global Market Comments
November 2, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE CROOKS ARE GETTING SMARTER)
(ROM), (THO)
