Global Market Comments
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PLAYING THE SHORT SIDE WITH VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREADS), (TLT)
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOESN’T WORK)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)
Global Market Comments
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PLAYING THE SHORT SIDE WITH VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREADS), (TLT)
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOESN’T WORK)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)
Global Market Comments
October 28, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or DON’T FIGHT THE FED),
(BIIB), (IBB), (TSLA), (VIX), (BA), (AMZN), (AAPL), (MSFT), (GM)
Don’t fight the Fed.
That was the overwhelming message of the market last week as it ground up to a new intraday all-time high. The economy may be going to hell in a handbasket. But as long as the Fed keeps lowering interest rates, stocks will go up, kicking and screaming all the way. It’s that simple.
America’s central bank will get its next chance to cut rates on Wednesday at 2:00 PM from the current overnight rate of 2.00%.
The big question is: Will the curse of the Fed continue? For the last two times the Fed lowered interest rates, substantial stock market selloffs ensued, the last one reaching a 7.5% haircut. We will know shortly.
The Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference held last weekend was a blowout success, with a great time had by all. The weather couldn’t have been more perfect, with the lake waters calm and crystal clear. A day of market insights were delivered by me and Mad Hedge Technology Letter author Arthur Henry.
The only drawback was that several guests were prevented from going home by mandatory evacuations of several Bay Area cities and the closure of Interstate 80 going back to San Francisco. A handful (including me), had no electric power to return to when they got home.
I’ll share with you the most disturbing chart of the entire day showing the S&P 500 (SPY) has been grinding up to new highs, earnings forecasts have been absolutely falling off a cliff. Clearly, with the Volatility Index (VIX) back down to the lowly $12 handle, this is a market that is cruising for a bruising….someday.
Brexit failed again, taking the quagmire into its fourth year. An EC deal is postponed until January 31, but they’re really not interested at all. British pounds collapsing, creating a new “RISK OFF” leg worldwide. Prime minister Johnson has lost 5 consecutive parliamentary votes, an all-time record. When will he get the message?
US Capital Investment has ground to a halt, with business fixed investment down 1% YOY. No one knows where to put their money, inside the US or not, so they're doing nothing until it is sorted out. Call me when its over.
Biogen (BIIB) exploded to the upside on its FDA application for its new Alzheimer’s drug. Written off for dead six months ago, the company secretly kept working on Aducanumab until today’s blockbuster announcement. The drug reverses amyloid plaques thought responsible for Alzheimer’s. The stock is up an incredible 38% and has even dragged up the biotech ETF (IBB) 3%. Buy (BIIB) on dips.
Boeing soared on accelerated production timeline for 2020. Good thing I bought it just recently. The stock had been severely oversold on a $45 dive in two days. Buy (BA) on the dips.
The trade war is back in business with the Chinese demanding a total end to tariffs before any big ag buys. The rumors knocked stocks back on their heels. The Middle Kingdom also takes issue with recent Pence comments about basketball. Trump is definitely cornered. The trade war pain has gone global, with Europe taking the biggest hit. Some 40% of Germany’s GDP comes from exports. Growth will be on the skids for the next two years, even if a deal is done tomorrow.
Tesla shocked, bringing in a profit for only the third time in company history, and causing the stock to soar $55. The 100,000-unit production target within yearend looks within reach. Most importantly, they opened up a new supercharger station in Incline Village, Nevada! Tesla is now America’s most valuable car maker, beating (GM). The ideological Exxon-financed shorts have been destroyed once and for all. Buy (TSLA) on dips. There’s a ten bagger in this one.
Amazon put out a gloomy Christmas forecast on the back of a disappointing earnings report, crushing the shares by 7%. Looks like the trade war might cause a recession next year. Q3 revenues were great, up 24% to an eye-popping $70 billion. Good thing I took profits on the last option expiration. Poor Jeff Bezos, the abandoned son of an alcoholic circus clown, dropped $7 billion in net worth on Thursday. Buy (AMZN) on the dips.
The safest stock in the market, Microsoft, says it’s all about the cloud. Azure revenues grew a stunning 59% in Q3. (MSFT) is now up 37% on the year. Keep buying every dip, if we ever get another one.
Apple stock soared to new all-time high, taking the market cap just short of $1.1 trillion. iPhones are now less than 50% of total sales. The company is firing on all cylinders. My target is $200. Buy (AAPL) on dips.
Existing Home Sales dropped, down 2.2% in September to 5.38 million units. It’s shocking given the incredibly low level of interest rates. A shortage of supply?
This was a week for the Mad Hedge Trader Alert Service to stay level at an all-time high. With only one position left in Boeing (BA), not much else was going to happen.
My Global Trading Dispatch reached new pinnacle of +349.47% for the past ten years and my 2019 year-to-date accelerated to +48.42%. The notoriously volatile month of October stands at a blockbuster +11.91%. My ten-year average annualized profit held steady at +35.24%.
With my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index sitting around the neutral 62 level, it is too close to neutral to do anything dramatic.
The coming week is pretty non eventful of the data front. Maybe the stock market will be non-eventful as well.
On Monday, October 28 at 8:30 AM, the September Chicago Fed National Activity Index is published. Alphabet (GOOGL), and AT&T (T) report.
On Tuesday, October 29 at 9:00 AM, we get a new S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index for August. Amgen (AMGN) and Pfizer (P) report.
On Wednesday, October 30, at 8:30 AM, the first read on US Q3 GDP is announced. At 10:30 AM, EIA Energy Stocks are published. Then at 2:00 PM, we obtain the FOMC interest rate decision. Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) report.
On Thursday, October 31 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are out. US Steel (X) reports.
On Friday, November 1 at 8:30 AM, the October Nonfarm Payroll Report is released. AbbVie (ABBV) and ExxonMobile (XOM) report.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.
As for me, I’ll be driving back home from Lake Tahoe. I wonder if I’ll make it.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
October 25, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY FINANCIAL ADVISORS ARE GOING EXSTINCT),
(HOW THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY IS EXPLODING)
About one-third of my readers are professional financial advisors who earn their crust of bread telling clients how to invest their retirement assets for a fee.
They used to earn a share of the brokerage fees they generated. After stock commissions went to near zero, they started charging a flat 1% a year on the assets they oversaw.
So it is with some sadness that I have watched this troubled industry enter a long-term secular decline which seems to be worsening by the day.
The final nail in the coffin may be the new regulations announced by the Department of Labor that controls this business.
Brokers, insurance agents, and financial planners were already held to a standard of suitability by the government based on a client’s financial situation, tax status, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
The DOL is now raising this bar to the level already required of Registered Investment Advisors, as spelled out by the Investment Company Act of 1940.
This requires advisors to act only in the best interests of their clients, irrespective of all other factors, including the advisor’s compensation or conflicts of interest.
What this does is increase the costs while also greatly expanding advisor liability. In fact, the cost of malpractice insurance has already started to rise. All in all, it makes the financial advisor industry a much less fun place to be.
As is always the case with new regulations, they were inspired by a tiny handful of bad actors.
Some miscreants steered clients into securities solely based on the commissions they earned, which could reach 8% or more, whether it made any investment sense or not. Some of the instruments they recommended were nothing more than blatant rip-offs.
The DOL predicts that the new regulations will save consumers $15 billion a year in excess commissions.
Knowing hundreds of financial advisors personally, I can tell you that virtually all are hardworking professionals who go the extra mile to safeguard customer assets while earning incremental positive returns.
That is no easy task given the exponential speed with which the global economy is evolving. Yesterday’s “window and orphans” safe bets can transform overnight into today’s reckless adventure.
Look no further than coal, energy, and the auto industry. Once a mainstay of conservative portfolios, all of these sectors have or came close to filing for bankruptcy.
Even my own local power utility, Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PGE), filed for chapter 11 in 2001 because they couldn’t game the electric power markets as well as Enron.
Some advisors even go the extent of scouring the Internet for a trade mentoring service that can ease their burden, like the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, to get their clients that extra edge.
Traditional financial managers have been under siege for decades.
Commissions have been cut, expenses increased, and mysterious “fees” have started showing up on customer statements.
Those who work for big firms, like UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sacks, UBS, Merrill Lynch, and Charles Schwab, have seen health insurance coverage cut back and deductibles raised.
The safety of custody with big firms has always been a myth. Remember, all of these guys would have gone under during the 2008-09 financial crash if they hadn’t been bailed out by the government. It will happen again.
The quality of the research has taken a nosedive, with sectors, like small caps, no longer covered.
What remains offers nothing but waffle and indecision. Many analysts are afraid to commit to a real recommendation for fear of getting sued, or worse, scaring away lucrative investment banking business.
And have you noticed that after Dodd-Frank, two-thirds of a brokerage report is made up of disclosures?
Many advisors have, in fact, evolved over the decades from money managers to asset gatherers and relationship managers.
Their job is now to steer investors into “safe” funds managed by third parties that have to carry all of the liability for bad decisions (buying energy plays in 2014?)
The firms have effectively become toll-takers, charging a commission for anything that moves.
They have become so risk-averse that they have banned participation in anything exotic, like options, option spreads, (VIX) trading, any 2X leveraged ETFs, or inverse ETFs of any kind. When dealing in esoterica is permitted, the commissions are doubled.
Even my own newsletter has to get a compliance review before it is distributed to clients, often provided by third parties to smaller firms.
“Every year they try to chip away at something”, one beleaguered advisor confided to me with despair.
Big brokers often hype their own services with expensive advertising campaigns that unrealistically elevate client expectations.
Modern media doesn’t help either.
I can’t tell you how many times I have had to convince advisors not to dump all their stocks at a market bottom because of something they heard on TV, saw on the Internet, or read in a competing newsletter warning that financial Armageddon was imminent.
Customers are force-fed the same misinformation. One of my main jobs is to provide advisors with the fodder they need to refute the many “end of the world” scenarios that seem to be in continuous circulation.
In fact, a sudden wave of such calls has proven to be a great “bottoming” indicator for me.
Personally, I don’t expect to see another major financial crisis until 2032 at the earliest, and by then, I’ll probably be dead.
Because of all of the above, about half of my financial advisor readers have confided in me a desire to go independent in the near future, if they are not already.
Sure, they won’t be ducking all these bullets. But at least they will have an independent business they can either sell at a future date or pass on to a succeeding generation.
Overheads are far easier to control when you own your own business, and the tax advantages can be substantial.
A secular trend away from non-discretionary to discretionary account management is a decisive move in this direction.
There seems to be a great separation of the wheat from the chaff going on in the financial advisory industry.
Those who can stay ahead of the curve, both with the markets and their own business models, are soaking up all the assets. Those that can’t are unable to hold on to enough money to keep their businesses going.
Let’s face it, in the modern age, every industry is being put through a meat grinder. Thanks to hyper accelerating technology, business models are changing by the day.
Just be happy you’re not a doctor trying to figure out Obamacare.
Those individuals who can reinvent themselves quickly will succeed. Those that won’t will quickly be confined to the dustbin of history.
Global Market Comments
October 24, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HANGING WITH LEONARDO)
Global Market Comments
October 23, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BIOGEN’S HUGE DISCOVERY),
(BIIB), (IBB), (NOVN), (ROG),
(PLEASE USE MY FREE DATABASE SEARCH)
It is the sort of development that most Biotech investors only dream about. It also shows what’s possible in biotech investing, which is occurring with increasing frequency.
Biogen shares (BIIB) have exploded to the upside on its FDA application for its new Alzheimer’s drug. Written off for dead six months ago, the company secretly kept working on Aducanumab until today’s blockbuster announcement.
The drug reverses amyloid plaques thought responsible for Alzheimer’s. This could eventually cure tens of millions of Alzheimer’s sufferers and maybe even myself someday. The stock is up an incredible 40% today and has even dragged up the biotech ETF (IBB) an impressive 3%.
Way back in March, we saw a huge flop for Biogen (BIIB) as the biotech company supposedly shut down research for Alzheimer's treatment: aducanumab (BIIB037) on the failure of a stage 3 trial. This announcement was a curveball for its shareholders as the drug was touted as a potential groundbreaking miracle treatment with sales pegged at the tens of billions.
Biogen has for some time made Alzheimer's experiments the epicenter of their new drug pipeline. It also offers a multiple sclerosis treatment called Tecfidera.
Generic competition has been hot on its heels and shareholders can expect a number of patent challenges in the next few years. This would undoubtedly lead to a fall in sales soon especially with the recent crackdown on the skyrocketing prices of meds.
To combat these looming challenges, Biogen has shifted its focus on Spinraza which has been beating expectations since its release three years ago. Set to exceed the $2 billion in sales mark, this spinal muscular atrophy drug has been dominating the rare disease market for quite some time.
This reign might not last long though as Novartis AG (NOVN) and Roche Holding AG (ROG) are gunning to release their own version of the drug by 2020 or 2021. This means Biogen would once again see another blockbuster drug go flat.
How does Biogen plan to deal with the backlash?
If history is any indication, then investors can expect Biogen to start looking into acquiring medium-size biopharma firms as soon as possible. Since the company closed 2018 with $3.5 billion in cash along with $5.3 billion in its free cash flow, a buyout is a viable solution at the moment. However, the biotech giant can only afford one.
The medium-sized biopharma firms speculated to be under consideration include ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company, and Alder Biopharmaceuticals. However, Neurocrania Biosciences and Sage Therapeutics are said to be potential frontrunners for a Biogen takeover.
While a lot of investors would understandably be wary of another risk from Biogen, Neurocrania and Sage could be promising targets for the biopharma giant.
Neurocrania has been raking in huge profits from their blockbuster tardive dyskinesia drug Ingrezza since gaining FDA approval in 2017. In fact, annual sales of this product has reached $410 million in 2018.
Aside from their success with Ingrezza, Neurocrine has taken the first step towards gene therapy via their collaboration with Voyager Therapeutics. Just this month, Neurocrine has invested $165 million to commence the process of coming up with a treatment drug for Parkinson's disease.
Another good option is Sage as the company also focuses on neurology, which means their goals could align with Biogen's. The recent approval of Zulresso makes Sage the first company to provide treatment for severe postpartum depression.
While the Alzheimer's debacle can be overwhelming, Biogen's fundamentals remain attractive. In terms of revenue estimates, the company is anticipated to report a 2.2% increase this year or up to $13.75 billion. Meanwhile, growth for earnings per share is projected to be at 9.4% or up to $28.67 from its current EPS of $21.58.
Global Market Comments
October 22, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 25-26, 2019)
(THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY)
Tickets for the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference are selling briskly. If you want to obtain a ticket that includes a dinner with John Thomas and Arthur Henry, you better get your order in soon.
The conference date has been set for Friday and Saturday, October 25-26.
Come learn from the greatest trading minds in the markets for a day of discussion about making money in the current challenging conditions.
How much longer can the Fed keep boosting the market?
Will the recession start in 2020, or will we have to wait until 2021, and how soon will the stock market start discounting it?
How will you guarantee your retirement in these tumultuous times?
Will the next bear market be as bad as 2008-2009, or worse? And is it worth selling out everything now?
What will destroy the economy first, rising interest rates, collapsing earnings, a trade war, or all three?
Who will tell you what to buy at the next market bottom?
John Thomas is a 50-year market veteran and is the founder, CEO and publisher of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. John will give you a laser-like focus on the best-performing asset classes, sectors, and individual companies of the coming months, years, and decades. John covers stocks, options, and ETFs. He delivers your one-stop global view.
Arthur Henry is the author of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter. He is a seasoned technology analyst and speaks four Asian languages fluently. He will provide insights into the most important investment sector of our generation.
The event will be held at a five-star resort and casino on the pristine shores of Lake Tahoe in Incline Village, NV, the precise location of which will be emailed to you with your ticket purchase confirmation.
It will include a full breakfast on arrival, a sit-down lunch, coffee break. The wine served will be from the best Napa Valley vineyards.
Come rub shoulders with some of the savviest individual investors in the business, trade investment ideas, and learn the secrets of the trading masters.
Ticket Prices
Copper Ticket - $699: Saturday conference all day on October 26, with buffet breakfast, lunch, and coffee break, with no accommodations provided
Silver Ticket - $1,399: Two nights of double occupancy accommodation for October 25 & 26, Saturday conference all day with buffet breakfast, lunch and coffee break
Gold Ticket - $1,598: Two nights of double occupancy accommodation for October 25 & 26, Saturday conference all day with buffet breakfast, lunch, and coffee break, and an October 26, 7:00 PM Friday night VIP Dinner with John Thomas
Platinum Ticket - $1,599: Two nights of double occupancy accommodation for October 25 & 26, Saturday conference all day with buffet breakfast, lunch, and coffee break, and an October 27, 7:00 PM Saturday night VIP Dinner with John Thomas
Diamond Ticket - $1,999: Two nights of double occupancy accommodation for October 25 & 26, Saturday conference all day with buffet breakfast, lunch, and coffee break, an October 25, 7:00 PM Friday night VIP Dinner with John Thomas, AND an October 26, 7:00 PM Saturday night VIP Dinner with John Thomas
Schedule of Events
Friday, October 25, 7:00 PM
7:00 PM - Exclusive dinner with John Thomas and Arthur Henry for 12 in a private room at a five-star hotel for gold and diamond ticket holders only
Saturday, October 26, 8:00 AM
8:00 AM - Breakfast for all guests at the Lakeshore Ballroom
9:00 AM - Speaker 1: Arthur Henry –The Mad Hedge Technology Letter -The Next Big Trends in Technology and How to Play Them
10:15 AM – 15-minute coffee break
10:30 AM - Speaker 2: John Thomas – Global Trading Dispatch - The Markets in 2020 – Risks and Rewards
12:00 PM - Lunch
1:30 PM - Speaker 3: Arthur Henry – The Mad Hedge Technology Letter - Pain and Pleasure in the Technology IPO Market
2:45 PM – Coffee Break
3:00 PM - Speaker 4: John Thomas – Global Trading Dispatch – The 2020 Election and the Markets
4:15 PM – Adjourn to Lone Eagle Bar
7:00 PM - Exclusive dinner with John Thomas for Platinum and Diamond ticket holders only in the lakeshore Ballroom
To purchase tickets, click here.
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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