Global Market Comments
July 3, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WEDNESDAY, JULY 10 BUDAPEST, HUNGARY STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MEET THE GREEKS)
Global Market Comments
July 3, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WEDNESDAY, JULY 10 BUDAPEST, HUNGARY STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MEET THE GREEKS)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon which I will be conducting in Budapest, Hungary on Wednesday, July 10, 2019 at 12:30 PM.
An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and a question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.
I also hope to provide some insight into America’s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.
Tickets are available for $240.
The lunch will be held at an exclusive hotel on the Buda side of the Danube near the St Matthias church, the location of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.
Hang around any professional options trading desk and it will only be seconds before you hear the terms Delta, Theta, Gamma, or Vega. No, they are not reminiscing about their good old fraternity or sorority days (Go Delta Sigma Phi!).
These are all symbols for mathematical explanations of how options prices behave when something changes. They provide additional tools for understanding the price action of options and can greatly enhance your own trading performance.
Bottom line: they are all additional ways to make money trading options.
The best part about the Greeks is that they are all displayed on your online options trading platform FOR FREE! So, if you can read a number off a screen, you gain several new advantages in the options trading world. That’s not a lot to ask.
Delta
The simplest and most basic Greek symbol to comprehend is the Delta. An option delta is a prediction of how much the option price will change relative to a change in the underlying security.
Here, it is easiest to teach by example. Let’s go back to our (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option. Let’s assume that (AAPL) shares are trading at $110, and our call option is worth $2.00.
If (APPL) share rise $1 from $110 to $111, the call options will rise by 50 cents to $2.50. This is because an at-the-money call option has a delta of +0.50, or +50%. In other words, the (AAPL) call options will rise by 50%, or half of the amount of the (AAPL) shares.
Let’s say you bought (AAPL) shares because you expect them to rise 10% going into the next big earnings announcement. How much will the above-mentioned call options rise?
That’s easy. A call option with a delta of 50% will rise by half the amount of the shares. So, if (AAPL) shares rise by 10% from $110 to $121, the call options will appreciate by half this dollar about or by $5.50. This means that the call options should jump from in price from $2.00 to $7.50, a gain of 375%.
By the way, did I mention that I love trading options?
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option
50% delta X $11 stock gain = $5.50
$2.00 option cost + $5.50 option price increase = $7.50
Now let’s look at the Put option side of the equation. Let's assume that Apple is about to disappoint terribly in their next earnings report, and that the stock is about to FALL 10%.
We want to buy the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike put option which will profit when to stock falls. Remember, put options are always more expensive than call options because investors are always willing to pay a premium for downside protection. So, our put options here should cost about $4.00.
If we’re right and Apple shares tank 10%, from $110 to $99, how much will the put options increase in value?
We use the same arithmetic as with the call options. An at-the-money put options also has a delta of 0.50, or 50%. So, the put options will capture half the downside move of the stock, or $5.50. Add this to our $4.00 cost, and our put option should now be worth $9.50, a gain of 237.5%.
Did I happen to tell you that I love trading options?
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike put option
50% delta X $11 stock decline = $5.50
$4.00 option cost + $5.50 option price increase = $9.50
Let’s consider one more example, the short position. Let’s assume that Apple shares are going to fall, but we don’t know by how much, or how soon.
It that case, you are better off selling short a call option than buying a put option. That way, if the stock only falls by a small amount, or goes nowhere, you can still make a profit.
When you sell short an option, your broker PAYS you the premium which sits in your account until you close the position.
Short positions in options always have negative deltas. So, a short position in the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option will have a delta of -50%.
Let’s say you sold short the (AAPL) calls for $2.00 and Apple shares fell by 10%. What does the short position in the call option do? Since it has a delta of -50%, it will drop by half, from $2.00 to $1.00 and you will make a profit of $1.00.
Here is the beauty of short positions options. Let’s assume that (AAPL) stock doesn’t move at all. It just sits there at $110 right through the options expiration date of June 17, 2016.
Then the value of the call option you sold at $2.00 goes to zero. Your broker closes out the expired position from your account and frees up you margin requirement.
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option
-50% delta X $11 stock decline means the options drops by half, or from $2.00 to $1.00
Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? In fact, the numbers are so attractive that a large proportion of professional traders only engage in selling short options to earn a living.
To accomplish this, they usually have mainframe computers, highly skilled programmers, and teams of mathematicians backing them up which cost tens of millions of dollars a year.
However there is a catch.
When you sell short a call option, you are taking on UNLIMITED RISK. The position is said to be naked, or unhedged. Let’s say you sell short the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option, and (AAPL) shares, instead of falling, RISE from $110 to $200, a gain of $90.
Then the value of your short position soars from $2.00 to $45.00. You will get wiped out. It gets worse. The delta on this option is only 50% for the immediate move above $110. The higher the stock rise, the faster your delta increases until it eventually reaches 100%. You now have a loss that increases exponentially!
This is why many hedge fund managers refer to naked option shorting as the “picking up the pennies in front of the steamroller” strategy.
For this reason, brokers either demand extremely high margin requirement for these “naked” or unhedged short positions, or they won’t let you do them at all.
If you dig down behind many of the extravagant performance claims of other options trading services, they are almost always reliant on the naked shorting of options. They all blow up. It is just a matter of when.
For that reason, we here at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader NEVER recommend the naked shorting of put or call options, no matter what the circumstances.
We want to keep you as a happy, money-making customer for the long term. If you succumb to temptation and engage in naked shorting of options, you will be separated from your money in fairly short order.
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option
(AAPL) shares rise from $110 to $200
$2.00 short sale proceeds + $90 - $88.00
a loss of 4,400%!!
Theta
All options have time value. This is why an option with a one-year expiration date cost far more than one with a one-week expiration date. The theta is the measurement of how much premium you lose in a day. This is what options traders like me refer to as time decay.
The theta on an option changes every day. For example, an option with a year until expiration has a theta that is miniscule. An option that has a single day until expiration is close to 100% since it will lose its entire value within 24 hours if it is out of the money. The closer we get to expiration; the faster theta accelerates. As mathematicians say, it is not a straight-line move.
This is why you never want to hold a long option position going into expiration. The value of this option will vaporize by the day. Unless the stock goes your way very quickly, you will have a really tough time making money.
If you are short an option, this is when you can earn your greatest profits. But you only want to consider a short option position when you have an offsetting hedge against it. That will minimize and define your risk, limit your margin requirement, and keep you from blowing up and going to the poor house. We’ll talk more about that later.
I could go into how you calculate your own thetas, but that would be boring. Suffice it to say that you can read it right off the screen for you online trading platform.
Implied Volatility
While we’re here meeting the Greeks, there is one more concept that I want to get across to make your life as an option trader easier.
You have probably heard the term implied volatility. But to understand what this is, let me give you a little background.
Back in the 1970s, a couple of mathematicians developed a model for pricing options. Their names were Fisher Black and Myron Scholes and they received the Nobel prize for their work. Their equation became known as the Black Scholes Equation.
The Black Scholes equations predicts how much an option should be worth based on the historic volatility of the underlying securities, the current level of interest rates, and a few other factors.
When options trade over their Black Scholes value, they are said to have a high implied volatility. When they trade at a discount, they have a low implied volatility.
Let’s say that a piece of news comes out that a company is going to be taken over. The shares will rocket, and so will the implied volatility of the options.
If you pay a very high implied volatility for a call option, the chances of you making money decline and you are taking on more risk. If you pay too much, you could even see a situation where the stock rises, but the call option doesn’t rise, or even falls.
On the other hand, let’s say you buy a call option that is trading at a big discount to its theoretical implied volatility. You usually find this when a stock has shown little movement over a long period of time.
Chances are that you will get a good return on this low risk position, especially if you pick it up just before a major news event that you have correctly predicted.
At the end of the day, you should attempt to do with implied volatilities what you do with stocks and their options, buy low and sell high.
The Minors
There are a few other Greek letters you may hear about in the options market or find on your screen. For the most part, these are unnecessary most basic options strategies, gamma is well above your pay grade.
Gamma is the name of the most powerful type of radiation emitted when an atomic bomb goes off. It is always fatal. But we won’t talk about that here.
In the options world, gamma is the amount that the delta changes generated by a $1 move in the underlying stock price.
You may hear news reports of funds gamma hedging their portfolio during times of extreme market volatility. This occurs when managers want to reduce the volatility of their portfolios relative to the market.
Vega is another Greek term you’ll find on your screen. All options have a measurement called implied volatility or “vol” which indicated how much the option should move relative to a move in the underlying stock.
Vega is the measurement of the change in that option volatility. When a stock has volatility that is changing rapidly, vega will be high. When a stock is boring, vega will be low.
Finally, for the sake of completeness, I’ll mention rho. Rho is the amount that the price of an option will change compared to a change in the risk-free interest rate, i.e. the interest rate of US Treasury bills.
Back in the 1980s, rho was a big deal because interest rates were very high, with Fed funds rates as high as 13%. Since interest rates have been close to zero for the past eight years, rho has been pretty much useless. The only reason you would want to mention rho today is if you were writing a book about options trading.
With that, you should be fairly fluent in the Greeks, at least in regards to trading options. Just don’t expect this to get you anywhere if you ever plan to take a vacation to Greece.
"Every smart guy is tempted by leverage, and some are broken by it," said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett.
Global Market Comments
July 2, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MONDAY, JULY 8 VENICE, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(HERE COMES THE NEXT BIOTECH REVOLUTION).
(CVS), (AET), (BRK.A), (AMZN), (JPM), (CI), (AAPL), (NVDA), (IBM), (AMGN), (IBB), (BIIB), (CELG), (REGN)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon which I will be conducting in Venice, Italy on Monday, July 8, 2019 at 12:30 PM.
The event will be held at a hotel that was featured in both James Bond and Indiana Jones movies. Just watch for the swallowtail architectural features.
An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and a question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.
I also hope to provide some insight into America’s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.
Tickets are available for $239.
The lunch will be held at an exclusive hotel near the Doge's Palace, the location of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.
Technology and biotechnology are the two seminal investment themes of this century.
And while many tech companies have seen share prices rise 100-fold or more since the millennium, biotech and its parent big pharma have barely moved the needle.
That is about to change.
You can thank the convergence of big data, supercomputing, and the sequencing of the human genome, which overnight, have revolutionized how new drugs are created and brought to market.
So far, only a handful of scientists and industry insiders are in on the new game. Now it’s your turn to get in on the ground floor.
The first shot was fired in December 2017 when CVS (CVS) bought Aetna (AET) for an eye-popping $69 billion, puzzling analysts. A flurry of similar health care deals followed, with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Amazon (AMZN) with its Verily start-up, and J.P. Morgan (JPM) joining the fray.
March followed up with a Cigna (CI) bid for Express Scripts, a pharmacy benefits manager. Apple (AAPL) has suddenly launched a bunch of healthcare-based apps designed to accumulate its own health data pool.
What’s it all about? Or better yet, is there a trade here?
No, it’s not a naked bid for market share, or an attempt to front run the next change in health care legislation. It’s much deeper than that.
In short, it’s all about you, or your personal data to be more precise.
We have all seen those clever TV ads about IBM's (IBM) Watson supercomputer knowing what you want before you do. In reality, we are now on the third generation of Watson, known as Summit, the world’s fastest super computer. By the way, Summit uses thousands of NVIDIA (NVDA) graphics cards, which is yet another reason why I love that company.
Summit can process a mind-numbing 4 quadrillion calculations per second. This is the kind of computing muscle power that you once associated with a Star Trek episode.
Financed by the Department of Defense to test virtual nuclear explosions and predict the weather (that’s why we signed the nuclear test ban treaty), Summit has a few other tricks up its sleeve.
It can, for example, store every human genome and medical record of all 330 million people in the United States, process that data instantly, and spit out miracle drugs to cure any disease almost at whim.
You know all those lab tests, X-rays, MRI scans, and other tests you’ve been accumulating over the years? They add up to some 30% of the world daily data creation, or some 4 petabytes (or 4 million gigabytes) a day. That’s a lot of zeroes and ones.
Up until a couple of years ago, this data just sat there. It was like having a copy of the Manhattan telephone book (if it still exists) but not knowing anyone there. Thanks to Summit, we now not only have a few friends in Manhattan, we know everyone’s most intimate personal details.
I have been telling readers for years that if you can last only 10 more years, you might be able to live forever as all major human diseases will be cured during this time. Summit finally gives us the tools to achieve this.
Imagine the investment implications!
The U.S. currently spends more than $3 trillion on health care, or about 15% of GDP, and costs are expected to rise another 6% this year. To modernize this market, you will need to create from scratch four more Apples or six more Facebooks (FB) in terms of market capitalization. You can imagine what getting in early is potentially worth to your investment portfolio.
Crucial to all of this was Craig Venter’s decoding of his own DNA in 2000 for the first time which cost about $1 billion. Today, you and I can get 23andMe, Ancestry.com, or Family Tree DNA to do it for $100, with most of the scut work done in China.
Of course, key to all of this is getting the medical data for every U.S. citizen on line as fast as possible. The Obama administration began this effort seven years ago. Remember those gigantic overstuffed records rooms at your doctor’s office? They’ve all been sent to the recycling bin. You don’t see them anymore.
But we have a long way to go, and 20% of the U.S. population who don’t have HAVE any medical records, including all of the uninsured, will be a challenge.
To give you some idea of the potential and convince you that I have not gone totally MAD, let me tell you about Amgen’s (AMGN) sudden interest in the country of Iceland. Yes, Iceland.
There, a struggling young start-up named deCode sequenced the DNA of the entire population of the country, about 160,000 individuals. It tried to monetize its findings, but it was early and lost money hand over fist. So, the company sold it to Amgen in 2012 for $415 million.
Until then, targeting molecules for development was based on a hope and a prayer, and only a hugely uneconomic 5% of drugs made it to market. I was a bit like wildcatting for oil, another extremely high risk venture.
Using artificial intelligence (yes, those NVIDIA graphics processors again) to pretest against the deCode DNA database, it was able to increase that hit rate to 75%.
It’s not a stretch to assume that a 15-fold increase in success rates leads to a 15-fold improvement in profitability, or thereabouts.
Word leaked out setting off a gold rush for equivalent data pools that led to the takeover boom described above. And what happens when the pool of data explodes from 160,000 individuals to 330 million? It boggles the mind.
Another aspect of this is that Iceland has the purest gene pool in the world. Some 90% of the population is directly descended from Vikings, while the remaining 10% is from the Irish slaves they captured.
As a result, the health care industry is now benefiting from a “golden age” of oncology. Average life expectancy for chemotherapies is increasing by months at a time for specific cancers.
All of this is happening at a particularly fortuitous time for drug, health care, and biotech companies, which are only just now coming out of a long funk.
Traders seemed to have picked up on this new trend in May, which is why I slapped on a long position in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) (click here for a full description).
Like many companies in the sector, it is coming off of a very solid one-year double bottom and is going ballistic today.
The area is ripe for rotation. Other names you might look at include Biogen (BIIB), Celgene (CELG), and Regeneron (REGN).
If you have grown weary of buying big cap technology stocks at new all-time highs, try adding a few biotech and pharmaceutical stocks to spice this up. The results may surprise you.
As for living forever, that will be the subject of a future research piece. The far future.
"Technology is going to be stealing market capitalization from other industries for the next ten years," said Gene Munster of Silicon Valley venture capital firm Loup Ventures.
Global Market Comments
July 1, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, JULY 5 CAIRO, EGYPT STRATEGY DINNER)
(OPTIONS FOR THE BEGINNER),
(CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE)
Come join me for dinner at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Dinner which I will be conducting in Cairo, Egypt on Friday, July 5, 2019 at 7:00 PM.
An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and a question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.
I also hope to provide some insight into America’s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.
Tickets are available for $238.
The dinner will be held at an exclusive hotel in downtown Cairo on the Nile River, the location of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for this dinner, please click here.
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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