Global Market Comments
March 18, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR A STIFF DOSE OF HUMILITY),
(FCX), (AAPL), (IWM), (SPY), (BA), (FXI), (FXB)
Global Market Comments
March 18, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR A STIFF DOSE OF HUMILITY),
(FCX), (AAPL), (IWM), (SPY), (BA), (FXI), (FXB)
Sometimes markets have to give you a solid dose of humility, blindside you with a sucker punch, and slap you across the face with a wet kipper. Last week was definitely one of those weeks for me.
It was only just a matter of time before this happened. We posted new record gains for the first ten weeks of 2019. It was just a matter of time before the reality check kicked in.
I believed that we have seen the sharpest rally in stocks since the 2009 bottom, we were overdue for a respite. That respite came and only lasted a week. It has been an especially frustrating week for those few of us who watch economic data because it has been unremittingly awful while stocks rose daily.
There were really no reasons for shares to rise that week. There were also no reasons to sell, other than a dozen or so complete disasters that are looming just over the horizon. Still, to quote an old friend of mine, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.”
The bull market reached ten years old last week, and if you read this letter you caught every dollar of the move up since then, plus some. But how much longer will it last? The technicals say it’s already in its death throes.
China trade negotiations (FXI) endlessly continued as they have for a year, but now the Chinese have thrown up a roadblock. They want everything in writing. In the wake of the North Korean disaster, can you blame them? This will weigh heavily on stocks until it's done.
Another day, another Brexit vote failed again. The pound (FXB) is doing the Watusi. Avoid all UK plays until the issue is decided.
The share buyback blackout started on Friday for many companies which are not allowed to repurchase their own shares up to 30 days ahead of the Q1 earnings reports. If you take the largest buyers of shares out of the market, what is left? Look to play the short side for the market.
Boeing (BA) hit bottom as the US became the last country to ban the 737 Max 8. Imagine being 35,000 feet in the air and you find out your plane is grounded for safety reasons, as 6,000 people did last week. Buy more (BA) on the dip. The next move is from $360 to $450.
Weekly Jobless Claims jumped, by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000. Notice claims aren’t falling anymore. Another sign the tax cut stimulus is shrinking? Or that there is no one left to hire with any skills whatsoever?
Tesla (TSLA) released its Model Y SUV, but the cheaper $39,000 version won’t be available until 2021 and the stock dove. We are approaching the make or break level for the stock, the bottom of a two-year range. Get ready to buy on the meltdown. This is a ten bagger in a decade. Buy (TSLA).
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader lost ground last week. The tenth rally in 11 weeks made my short positions lose money faster than my long positions could make it back.
The Mad Hedge Technology Letter was stopped pit of a short position in Apple (AAPL) for a small loss a heartbreaking three days before its options expiration.
February came in at a hot +4.16% for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. March started negative, down -2.18%.
My 2019 year to date return retreated to +11.46%, a new all-time high and boosting my trailing one-year return back up to +23.72%.
My nine-year return pared back to +311.60%. The average annualized return appreciated to +33.69%.
I am now 60% in cash, 20% long Freeport McMoRan (GLD), 10% short the S&P 500, and 10% short the Russell 2000. My short bond position (TLT) expired at its maximum profit point of $1,140.
As for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, it covered its short in Apple (AAPL) for a small loss.
Q4 earnings reports are pretty much done, so the coming week will be pretty boring on the data front after last week's fireworks.
On Monday, March 18, at 10:00 AM EST, the March Homebuilders Index is out.
On Tuesday, March 19, 8:30 AM EST, February Housing Starts is published.
On Wednesday, March 20 is the first official day of Spring, at last!
Thursday, March 21 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. At 10:00 AM, we get a new number for Leading Economic Indicators.
On Friday, March 22 we get a delayed number for Existing Home Sales.
The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.
As for me, it’s fundraising time here in the San Francisco Bay Area for local schools and gala balls are now a weekly event. I, who have pursued a lifelong pursuit of low prices and great deals, ended up paying $1,000 for a homemade coffee cake, $7,000 for tickets to the Golden State Warriors, and $10,000 for the best table in the house. Hey, what’s the value of money if you can’t spend it? You can’t take it with you.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Hi John,
I wanted to thank you for a trade idea you inspired me to take based on your BA commentary and your trading methodology. I placed a 22 March $340-$350 Vertical Bull Call spread on BA yesterday. Unless there is some catastrophic news in the next week, I should make $1570.
Best regards,
Robert
Oregon
“The bubble is in the bond market, not the stock market”, said Leon Cooperman, CEO of Omega Advisors, an original investor in my 1990’s hedge fund.
Global Market Comments
March 15, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BUY JOHNSON & JOHNSON ON THE BAD NEWS),
(JNJ), ($INDU), (PFE), (NVS), (AZN)
When one of the 30 Dow Average companies ($INDU) gets into trouble, I sit up and take note, stand to attention and drill down with a magnifying glass.
After all, it may have a major important on an important tradable index, thus opening up an investment opportunity. It also may sound the alarm for a great single stock pick. That is certainly the case with New Brunswick, NJ based Johnson & Johnson, one of the oldest companies traded on the NYSE.
What piqued my interest today was the news that the company lost another talcum power lawsuit, which is alleged by plaintiffs to contain asbestos. This has been among the catalog of urban conspiracies for decades now.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is, in fact, carrying on with their mission to strengthen their pharma sector which has consistently served as their top revenue driver in the past years. While their strong performance in this segment has always been led by their oncology portfolio, with sales of their cancer drugs increasing by 22.1% worldwide in the previous quarter, it looks like more and more products are on their way to becoming JNJ's blockbuster items.
The company estimates to launch more than ten new drugs -- all of which have the potential to be blockbuster products -- by 2021. On top of these, JNJ expects to complete 50 line extensions on their existing products. Both efforts are anticipated to temper the effects of generic drugs that are threatening to hamper the sales of a lot of key products in JNJ's portfolio.
The latest potential blockbuster drug for JNJ is Esketamine which is an anti-depressant aimed at treatment-resistant patients. This was developed by the company’s pharmaceutical arm, Janssen Pharmaceuticals Inc. This new groundbreaking product was approved on March 5 by the FDA and will be marketed as Spravato. It is hailed as the first prescription depression drug developed from ketamine, which is more commonly used as an anesthetic.
Although ketamine has long been tagged as a party drug, aka “Special K”, and is approved as an anesthetic, no company has patented its use. This is where Janssen swooped in and patented the left section of the molecule, called esketamine, and sent their application to FDA. The approval of this drug, which FDA described as a “breakthrough therapy” thus receiving priority review, translates to a potential cash cow for JNJ as it successfully legitimized the application of ketamine as an anti-depression drug.
Aside from depression, FDA is also taking into consideration the applicability of esketamine to patients afflicted with mood disorders such as bipolar disorder. The organization looks at it as a potential solution for reducing suicides as well.
Other drugs projected to rake in massive sales for JNJ pipeline include psoriatic arthritis Tremfya, prostate cancer medication Erleada, and metastatic urothelial cancer treatment Erdafitinib. With the addition of Spravato on the list, sales are expected to reach more than $1 billion.
However, no company is perfect and the same goes for products -- even if they are poised to become blockbuster drugs. A major hindrance for the success of Spravato is cost.
Here's a sample quote for potential patients.
A one-month initial treatment will cost somewhere from $4,000 to $7,000. The exact price will depend on the dosage and if it's availed wholesale. Expenses for follow-up treatments will reach $2,360 to $3,500 a month. All in all, Spravato could become as expensive as an electroconvulsive treatment or even a transcranial magnetic stimulation therapy. Worse, this treatment might have to be shouldered by the patients themselves.
Another deterrent for investors looking into JNJ is the continuing issue concerning the talcum powder lawsuits which claim that the talc items of the company contain asbestos that resulted in ovarian cancer among many of its female users. As of August 2018, a Missouri court has ordered JNJ to pay 22 women a total of $4.7 billion for damages. While the company announced its decision to appeal the ruling, the case has been a huge red flag for investors ever since.
Nonetheless, it appears that JNJ remains a solid stock for a lot of investors.
With an annual revenue of $81.6 billion, (JNJ) is anticipated to stay ahead of its competitors Pfizer (PFE) ($53.4B), Novartis (NVS) ($51B), and AstraZeneca (AZN) ($21.9B). Taking into consideration currency impact, which is expected to negatively affect sales by roughly 1.5%, JNJ's revenues are projected to hit $80.4 to $81.2 billion this year.
While it still has a long way to go, the recent approval of Spravato spelled higher confidence in JNJ's revenue growth this year. The company's purchase of robotic surgical instruments manufacturer Auris Health, for $3.4 billion further strengthened its dominance in the industry.
In the past month alone, its shares rose by 4.55%. Investors are also anticipating more growth until the next earnings report, which is anticipated to show $2.10 earnings per share for the company. This represents a 1.49% year-over-year increase.
“The bubble is in the bond market, not the stock market” said Leon Cooperman, CEO of Omega Advisors, an original investor in my 1990’s hedge fund.
Global Market Comments
March 14, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LEARN MORE ABOUT ME THAN YOU PROBABLY WANT TO KNOW),
(GOOG), (AMZN), (AMGN)
"I manage one million people, and managing people is like managing animals, and I don't like managing one million animals," said Terry Gou, CEO of Chinese manufacturer, Foxconn, where employee suicides have been rife.
Global Market Comments
March 13, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY BOND YIELDS ARE GOING TO ZERO),
(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX),
(TESTIMONIAL)
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