?The bears have the run of the table here in oil,? said John Kilduff from Again Capital Partners.
Global Market Comments
December 8, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE PASSIVE/AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO),
(ROM), (UYG), (UCC), (DIG), (BIB), (UGL), (UCD), (TBT),
(THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER AND MAD DAY FUND TRADER)
ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM)
ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG)
ProShares Ultra Consumer Services (UCC)
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG)
ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Biotechnology (BIB)
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL)
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Commodity (UCD)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Thanks to our ballistic, market beating performance, up 47% year to date, we have recently enjoyed a large influx of new subscribers, especially from Australia and New Zealand. So I want to take to take this opportunity to clarify exactly what you bought.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to one month window.
It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is written by me, John Thomas, who you may have met during my many Global Strategy Luncheons around the world.
I use a combination of deep, long term fundamental research, technical analysis, and a global network of long time contacts to generate great investment ideas for you, the reader.
The target holding period can be anywhere from three days to six months, although if something fortuitously doubles in a day, I don?t need to be told twice to take a profit (yes, this happens sometimes).
Last year, I issued some 200 Trade Alerts, of which 84% were profitable.
The Mad Day Trader is a separate, but complimentary service run by my Philadelphia based friend, Bill Davis. He uses a dozen proprietary short-term technical and momentum indicators he developed himself to generate buy and sell signals.
These will be sent to you by email for immediate execution. During normal trading conditions, you should receive up to ten alerts a month. The target holding period can be anywhere from a few minutes to a month.
Bill issues far tighter stop loss limits, given the short-term nature of his strategy. The goal is to keep losses miniscule so you can always live to fight another day.
You will receive the same instructions for order execution, like ticker symbols, entry and exit points, targets, stop losses, and regular real time updates, as you do from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
Bill also sends out an outstanding daily commentary, which gives followers the true color of the market.
He supplies key support and resistance levels for several indexes, which the markets will revolve around. Traders love it.
At the end of each day, a separate short-term model portfolio will be posted on the website for both strategies.
Bill Davis is a 40-year market veteran who has spent a career in financial education. Suffice it to say, Bill knows which end of a stock to hold up.
I have followed his work for yonks, and can?t imagine a better partner in the serious business of making money for you, the reader.
Together, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader and the May Day Trader comprise Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO, which is for sale on my website for $4,500 a year.
I hope this makes everything crystal clear for the new subscribers. If you have anymore questions, please call my loyal assistant, Nancy, in Florida at 888-716-1115 or 813-388-2904, or email her directly at support@madhedgefundtrader.com.
When Nancy is tied up, calls are automatically routed through to our web developer, Doug.?Please remember that Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane Australia are 16 hours ahead of Florida, while Perth is 13 hours ahead.
Sometimes it?s Good to Have Gunslingers on Your Side
Global Market Comments
December 7, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGH),
(FXE), (EUO), (XIV), (JPM), (DIS), (MSFT),
(TESTIMONIAL)
(THE NEW CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH), (GLD
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
It has been a long hard slog, but I finally managed to get the performance of my Trade Alert Service up once again to a new all time high.
I have not pushed forward my service?s performance numbers to loftier heights since September 29.
It had to happen sooner or later.
What finally did it was my absolute nailing of the blockbuster November nonfarm payroll at 211,000. Headline unemployment dropped to a new decade low at 5.0%.
I went into the report short the Euro (FXE), (EUO), short volatility (XIV), and long US stocks up the wazoo, especially financials (JPM), technology (MSFT), and consumer discretionaries (DIS).
When I saw the report at 5:30 AM Pacific Standard Time, I went back to bed. I knew everything would be running my way, big time, and I didn?t want to be awake to take profits too soon.
When we tallied the numbers at the end of the day, I was blinking at the largest one-day gain for Mad Hedge Fund Readers in years, up a ballistic +5.73%.
Furthermore, my five-year record catapulted to a new all time high of 199.41%. That works out to an average annualized return of an eye popping 39.88%. I have no doubt we will top the magical 200% level on Monday.
The fruit of these labors was to take the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s profit for 2015 up to a new all time high at 46.60%.
December so far has been as hot at the Sahara Desert that I recently escaped, up a blistering 2.79%. It is a return that most hedge fund managers would kill for.
In fact hedge funds would take any return now, even a single basis point, as most are showing red ink for 2015.
It seems like only a Madman can prosper in these hopeless trading conditions.
The last ten consecutive Trade Alerts I have issued have been profitable, most instantly.
It has been a near perfect year. I said nearly.
Followers have found themselves in the green during every month of 2015, except during October, when the monster melt up short caught me short US stocks.
I started out 2015 with the goal of earning 25% for my readers during the first half, and another 25% in the second half. This latest batch of trades puts me right on track for reaching my yearend target.
Under promise and over deliver; it has always been a winning business strategy for me.
This is against a backdrop of major market indexes that are all down so far this year, despite sudden bursts of volatility and long, Sahara like stretches of boredom.
The key to winning this year has been to put the pedal to the mettle during those brief, but hair raising selloffs, and then take quick profits.
They don?t call me ?Mad? for nothing.
When the market is dead, you sit on your hands.
After all, you are trying to pay for your own yacht, not your broker?s.
When the market pays you to stay away, you stay away in droves.
Those who have made the effort to wake up early every morning and read my witty and incisive prose have an impressive row of notches on their bedpost to show for their effort.
My groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of followers now earn a full time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud.
Some 50% of my clients are over 50 and managing their own retirement funds fleeing the shoddy but expensive services provided by Wall Street. The balance is institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional financial advisors.
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader seeks to level the playing field for the average Joe. Looking at the testimonials that come in every day, I?d say we?ve accomplished that goal.
Quite a few followers were able to move fast enough to cash in on my trading recommendations. To read the plaudits yourself, please go to my testimonials page by clicking here. Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011, 14.87% in 2012, 67.45% in 2013, and 30.3% in 2014.
Our flagship product, Mad Hedge Fund Trader Pro, costs $4,500 a year. It includes?Global Trading Dispatch?(my trade alert service and daily newsletter).
You get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous research database, and live biweekly strategy webinars. You also get Bil Davis' Mad Day Trader service.
To subscribe, please go to my website at?www.madhedgefundtrader.com, click on the ?Memberships? located on the second row of tabs.
And now for the rest of the year.
I can?t wait!
Off to Find the Next Great Trade
SUPER trade with the (XIV). Thank you John!
I happened to be in front of my screens, when the alert came in. I saw it on the 5-minute divergence between price and RSI and went long at 27.60.
I?m at dinner just now and I got your ?take profit? Trade Alert.
I checked the chart and found we were at the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's move and took profits perfectly at $29.83. I took in an 8.08% profit in one day. That?s $818.41 less $4 bucks in commissions.
Nice, nice trade.
Thank you again John. Thank you for your call the other day.
Have a nice weekend coming up.
Semper Fi from Germany
Yours,
Jay
California is called the ?Golden State? for a good reason.
Countless fortunes have been made in mining, farming, real estate, tourism, movie making, aircraft manufacturing, aerospace, and more recently, in technology and pot growing.
The Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) IPO?s each minted 1,000 millionaires, and Twitter?s (TWTR) deal is said to have produced 1,600 more.
Recently, a lucky couple found the real thing while hiking ?somewhere in Northern California.?
Spotting an old, rusted out tin can, they started digging. To their utter amazement they uncovered five cans containing 1,427 gold coins worth more than $10 million.
Speculation ran rampant as to the original source of the cache. During the Mexican period prior to 1848, the notorious bandit, Joaquin Murrieta, killed more than 40 people in robberies up and down the state. The booty was never found.
Black Bart waylaid 28 Wells Fargo (WFC) stagecoaches in Northern California in the 1880?s, and said he buried the loot near an old oak tree.
Some even postulated that the coins belonged to the sole surviving member of the Jesse James gang, who retrieved the gold on his release from prison in Missouri and then moved to California.
Things got really interesting when my old friend, Don Kagin of Kagin?s, Inc., got involved (click here for his site).
Don has been the feature of several of my past pieces about rare and exotic coins (click here for ?The Mystery of the Brasher Doubloon?).
After close inspection, Don concluded that the coins were in mint, unissued condition dating from 1847 to 1894. One coin alone, an 1866 Liberty $20 gold piece, is worth more than $1 million.
Don?s take is that the coins were stolen during an inside job at the San Francisco Mint in 1900, one of the few buildings to survive the 1906 earthquake. The surrounding fires burned so hot, that the gold coins inside melted.
The building still stands today. However, it is structurally unsound to continue as a Treasury building, so it is rented out for parties. If that is the case, the coins are still the property of the US government.
But the US Treasury never filed a claim, lacking the documentary evidence dating back to the period.
The government has done this many times in the past, fighting a ten year legal battle to recovers some stolen, unissued 1933 gold double eagle?s, the last minted prior to Franklin Delano Roosevelt?s ban on private gold ownership.
One of these sold for $7,590,000 in 2002, making it the world?s most valuable coin. The government won in that case.
The find sparked a stampede of similar gold seekers, turning hills into suspected neighborhoods into Swiss cheese.
Too bad the lucky hikers didn?t find their cache five years earlier. Since then the price of the barbarous relic has fallen by 45%.
So Hiking Pays Off After All
?It?s a funny thing about life. If you refuse to accept anything but the best, you very often get it,? said British Novelist, Somerset Maugham.
Global Market Comments
December 4, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MR. MARIO?S BIG SURPRISE),
(FXE), (EUO), (HEDJ), (TLT), (TBT),
(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),
(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (TTEK), (PNR),
(TESTIMONIAL)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF (CGW)
PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water ETF (FIW)
Tetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK)
Pentair plc (PNR)
ECB president Mario Draghi certainly let go of a lead balloon today.
Instead of announcing a 20 basis point cut in Euro interest rates, we only got 10.
The world blew apart.
The Euro rocketed against the dollar some 3.5% in minutes, the best gain since 2009, and one of the top ten moves of all time for the beleaguered continental currency.
US Treasury bonds crashed, giving up $3, and popping yields from 2.18% to 2.32%. Stocks fell to pieces globally. The Volatility Index (VIX) went through he roof.
Never mind that Draghi announced an extension of European quantitative easing by six more months to March 2017, or that the number of qualified securities for the central bank could buy was expanded.
All traders wanted was one more rally before yearend into which they could unload their sizable Euro shorts. When they didn?t get it, they panicked and stampeded for the exits.
It was your classic flash fire in the movie theater.
This is what happens when positioning in financial markets gets too one-sided. Risk managers talk about too many passengers in one side of the canoe. Everyone gets to go swimming.
That is why I quit rolling down the strikes on my Euro shorts three weeks ago, loathe to sell to much at the bottom. My one remaining short Euro position successfully weathered today?s spike, is still in the money, and only has ten trading until expiration.
The important takeaway here is that today?s moves were entirely technical, and had nothing to do with fundamentals, which always win out over time.
The meteoric move in the Euro did not occur because of a sudden burst of strength in the European economy. It didn?t take place because the ECB is raising rates.
So, I think this entire move is bogus. It is a typical December event, where all of the hot money wants to get out of the market within the next four weeks so they can close their books and start over again next year.
It is also a great lesson on what happens when you have too many hedge fund chasing the same few trades. It always ends in tears.
Which leads me to believe that the dramatic moves we saw today will reverse themselves shortly. Stocks (SPY) will soar, bonds (TLT) will rise modestly, and the Euro (FXE), (EUO) will take the express train downtown. The (VIX) will fade, again.
These gyrations could possibly take place as soon as Friday?s November nonfarm payroll report. All we need is a number north of 200,000, and it will be off to the raises once again.
I am so convinced of my convictions that I bought the Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX ETF (XIV) 30 minutes before the close (that?s the latest I can send out a Trade Alert and expect readers to have time to open and execute).
USE THE HEDGE FUNDS? PAIN FOR YOUR GAIN!
If you still hold a Euro short, keep it.
If you are underweight stocks, here is another fine entry point.
This is especially true for hedged European stocks (HEDJ), which have just opened an excellent entry point.
The (SPY) is only down 2.1% from its recent high, and off 3.7% from its all time high, hardly the stuff of bear markets, or even corrections.
Surprise!
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