Global Market Comments
August 26, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AUGUST 27 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(WHY I?M COVERING SOME EURO SHORTS),
(FXE), (EUO),
(THAT WAS SOME SHAKER!)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
Global Market Comments
August 26, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AUGUST 27 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(WHY I?M COVERING SOME EURO SHORTS),
(FXE), (EUO),
(THAT WAS SOME SHAKER!)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
Wow! There is nothing like being tossed out of bed at 3:20 AM by a massive earthquake! It really gets the juices flowing. I was really praying that the wooden roof creaking and groaning above was not about to land on my head.
After hurriedly getting dressed, I grabbed a flashlight and ran downstairs to check the gas lines and water mains. So far, so good. Compliant with state law, my water heaters are strapped to the wall, so they were OK.
It looks like I escaped the biggest earthquake in Northern California in 25 years with a mere six foot long horizontal crack in the stucco on my home.
The earthquake was devastating for the wine industry, where owners today are mopping up the wine spilled from millions of smashed bottles. Some 200 buildings have been ?red tagged?, cited by city inspectors as unsafe for habitation.
Every road going into and out of Napa buckled, or was cut in half by giant cracks. Some unlucky drivers drove right into the buckles in the darkness, totaling their cars.
There were more than 90 water main breaks and 50 gas lines sheared, which meant that fire engines had insufficient water to fight fires. The unfortunate residents of one mobile home park saw their residences burn down almost immediately.
I spent the day next to my cell phone, waiting for notice of an emergency call up as a rescue pilot. When the ?big one? comes, I am set up to fly into devastated areas to transfer patients to other hospitals.
But the call fortunately never came. Napa?s Queen of the Valley Medical Center was able to handle the 200 injuries that arrived, mostly from flying glass.
We all knocked on wood that the damage had not been greater. If the earthquake had happened just eight hours later, the sidewalks packed with thousands of peak season tourists would have been showered with glass. Decades of retrofitting bridges at enormous expense paid off, as all passed inspection nicely.
One interesting wrinkle was that the University of California at Berkeley?s earthquake warning system worked, giving a ten second heads up, at least to those who were awake at 3:20 AM. Expect to hear a lot more about this in the future.
Many thanks for the emails I received from around the world voicing concern for my safety. It takes more than a lousy 6.0 earthquake to do in this trader in.
We are all keeping our fingers crossed that this is not the prelude to a much bigger quake, which sometimes happens.
Hey, why have waves suddenly appeared in my coffee cup...?
Global Market Comments
August 25, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MY END 2014 STOCK MARKET FORECAST), (SPY),
(ALL I WANT TO DO IS RETIRE),
(TAKE A LOOK AT OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM),
(OXY), (BP), (OIL), (UNG),? (NSANY), (XOM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
BP plc (BP)
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN (OIL)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
There are a lot of belles at the ball, but you can?t dance with all of them.
While a student at UCLA in the early seventies, I took a World Politics course, which required me to pick a country, analyze its economy, and make recommendations for its economic development. I chose Algeria, a country where I had spent the summer of 1968 caravanning among the Bedouins, crawling out of the desert half starved, lice ridden, and half dead.
I concluded that the North African country should immediately nationalize the oil industry, and raise prices from $3/barrel to $10.? I knew that Los Angeles based Occidental Petroleum (OXY) was interested in exploring for oil there, so I sent my paper to the company for review. They called the next day and invited me to their imposing downtown headquarters, then the tallest building in Los Angeles.
I was ushered into the office of Dr. Armand Hammer, one of the great independent oil moguls of the day, a larger than life figure who owned a spectacular impressionist art collection, and who confidently displayed a priceless Faberg? egg on his desk. He said he was impressed with my paper, and then spent two hours grilling me.
Why should oil prices go up? Who did I know there? What did I see? What was the state of their infrastructure? Roads? Bridges? Rail lines? Did I see any oil derricks? Did I see any Russians? I told him everything I knew, including the two weeks in an Algiers jail for taking pictures in the wrong places. His parting advice was to never take my eye off the oil industry, as it is the driver of everything else. I have followed that advice ever since.
When I went back to UCLA, I told a CIA friend of mine that I had just spent the afternoon with the eminent doctor (Marsha, call me!). She told me that he had been a close advisor of Vladimir Lenin after the Russian Revolution, had been a double agent for the Soviets ever since, that the FBI had known this all along, and was currently funneling illegal campaign donations to President Richard Nixon. Shocked, I kicked myself for going into an interview so ill prepared, and had missed a golden opportunity to ask some great questions. I never made that mistake again.
Some 40 years later, while trolling the markets for great buying opportunities set up by the BP oil spill, I stumbled across (OXY) once more (click here for their site). (OXY) has a minimal offshore presence, nothing in deep water, and huge operations in the Middle East and South America. It was the first US oil company to go back into Libya when the sanctions were lifted in 2005. (OXY?s) substantial California production is expected to leap to 45% to 200,000 barrels a day over the next four years. Its horizontal multistage fracturing technology will enable it to dominate California shale. The company has raised its dividend for the tenth year in a row, by 15% to 1.56%. Need I say more?
The clear message that came out of the BP oil spill is that onshore energy resources are now more valuable than offshore ones. I decided to add it to my model portfolio. Energy is one of a tiny handful of industries I am willing to put my money in these days (technology, industrials, and health care are the others).
Oh, and I got an A+ on the paper, and the following year Algeria raised the price of oil to $12.
Global Market Comments
August 22, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AUGUST 27 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(MIXING WITH THE 1% AT THE PEBBLE BEACH CONCOURSE D? ELEGANCE)
Global Market Comments
August 20, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE EURO BREAKS DOWN),
(FXE), (EUO), (TLT),
(APPLE BREAKS $100), (AAPL)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Since I am in a major patting myself on the back mood, I thought I would rerun a piece I ran last October entitled ?Apple is Ready to Explode?. This is back when the shares were trading at a lowly $490 a share.
Since then I have been urging readers to get in on the long side at every opportunity. They are now up a mind boggling 43% from that timely recommendation. They are laughing all the way to the bank.
?You have to be impressed how Apple shares have been trading during the Washington shutdown and the debt ceiling crisis. While other highflying technology stocks have crashed and burned, Apple has held like the Rock of Gibraltar.
Is this presaging much better things to come?
After the bar was set extremely low in the run up to the iPhone 5s launch, there has been an onslaught of good news. The first weekend sales came in at a staggering 9 million units, nearly double analyst forecasts. That?s a lot of units to be wrong by.
This has led to a series of broker upgrades by Cantor Fitzgerald, Cowen & Co., Piper Jaffray, Sanford Bernstein, and most recently by Jeffries. Entrenched bears are slowly an inexorably turning into bulls. Targets range up to $780.
During the summer, when the shares were trading in the low $400?s, Apple emerged as the largest buyer of its own stock. Still, it only made a dent in the $60 billion the company has dedicated to the program.
Of course, corporate raider and green mailer Carl Icahn (he lived in my building in Manhattan and was always a bit of a jerk) wants Apple to buy $160 billion of its stock, about $36% of the total market capitalization. But with a position of only $2 billion, Carl doesn?t have enough skin in the game to get anything more than a free dinner from CEO Tim Cook.
Still, the more Icahn bangs the drum about the value of Apple, the more money he sucks in. His blustering has probably added about $50 to the stock price. That works for me.
Like the Origin of the Universe and the 105-year long losing streak suffered by the Chicago Cubs baseball team, the cheapness of Apple shares is one of those mysteries that baffles investors. Sure, you?d expect some natural profit taking after the meteoric 15 year run in the shares, from $4 to $707. But a 46% drawdown is a lot, and many would say too much.
The company has eye popping net profits of $3.5 million per business hour (click here for the most recently quarterly announcement). Some one third of it capitalization, or $150 billion, sits in cash in European bank accounts.
That works out to $165 of the current $490 share price. This brings the ex cash trailing price earnings multiple down to a subterranean 11.8 times, or a 25% discount to the 16X market multiple. The dividend yield of 2.5% still exceeds that of the ten year Treasury bond. This is absurdly cheap.
Anyone who makes their living looking at the numbers has been loading up on the stock for the past eight months. Even permabear and short seller, Jim Chanos, has been buying on the theory that both Apple, and competitor Samsumg, together have been demolishing the Wintel architecture.
I think there is something important going on here. Apple is bringing out the next generation iPad in two weeks. Product refreshes for the iMac, Macbook, and Airbook in coming months are already well known. Every time an announcement of an announcement is made, the stock spikes $10.
But the 800-pound gorilla in Apples earnings stream is the iPhone, which accounts for more than 70% of its profits. The wildly successful 5s and 5c launches will take total smart phone sales from around 36 million in Q3 to at least 56 million units in Q4. The analyst community is nowhere near these numbers, so they are substantially underestimated the profitability of the company.
Apple has already cracked the China market for cash buyers with the latest upgrade of its wireless operating system. The whale here is a deal with China Mobile (CHL) with its 740 million customers, which has been to subject to on again and off again negations for years. Still, Apple has already told its manufacturers to add china Mobile to its approved carrier list.
I think the stock is beginning to discount the launch of the iPhone 6, which is still a distant 11 months away. That will take the company another generation ahead, with an expansive six-inch screen and a blazing fast A8 processor, leaving competitors in the dust.
The business is so big that my favorite airline, Virgin America, has initiated nonstop service from San Francisco to Austin. I?m told the plane is always full. That?s where they make processors for the new phones.
All of this leads me to believe that Apple will be a major mover in 2014. The chip shot is $600, and we get a real head of steam into the iPhone 6 rollout, we could match the old high at $707.
You can buy the stock here with some comfort. If you are hyper aggressive, try playing the weekly call options on the next breakout. The more cautious can settle for the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), or the ProShares Ultra Technology 2X leveraged ETF (ROM). Apple has major weightings in both of these ETF?s.?
For the link to the original story, please click here.
Global Market Comments
August 19, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY WE DON?T CARE ABOUT OIL),
(USO), (UNG)
(AUSTERITY HITS WALL STREET)
(THE TWELVE DAY YEAR)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
This year, your bonus is that you get to keep your job. That is the bad news that will be dished out to many disappointed staff during annual reviews at the major Wall Street firms this year.
We all know that volumes have been trading at subterranean levels, which have created a real draught of commission incomes. New regulations imposed by Dodd-Frank and the Volker rule mean that banks have to become boring, no longer able to juice earnings with trading revenues.
For boring, read less profitable, leading to smaller budgets for compensation. This is the price of preventing banks from committing suicide with your money in hand.
Industry compensation experts are seeing bonus cuts of up to 40%. Bond trading divisions are seeing the greatest cuts, reflecting a generational peaking of bond prices and volumes. Next is anything related to home mortgage origination and precious metals?
Senior staff is being nudged toward early retirement to further reduce overhead. Only private wealth managers are seeing pay increases, thanks to their ability to charge rich fees for enhanced customer service and place high margin products, like local municipal bonds.
The scary thing is that shrinking payouts is a trend that could continue for years. When I first started working on Wall Street 40 years ago, one out of three taxi drivers were brokers recently rendered jobless by deregulated commissions. Rates of 25 cents a share supported a lot of fluff.
Be careful next time you cross the street. You might get hit with some free investment advice.
Global Market Comments
August 18, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 27% GAIN IN 2014),
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (EUO),
(WILL GOLD SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL?)
(GLD), (GDX)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
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