Global Market Comments
July 15, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM BARCELONA, SPAIN),
(JUMPING BACK INTO APPLE), (AAPL),
(HOW TO AVOID PONZI SCHEMES)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Global Market Comments
July 14, 2014
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL MAD DAY TRADER ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER?S Q3 VIEWS),
(SPX), ($NDX), (QQQ), (TLT), (TBT), (FXA), (FXE), (FXY),
(GLD), (GDX), (SLV), (USO), (UNG), (LNG),
(CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA)
SPX Corporation (SPW)
Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF (FXA)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT)
Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
The stock markets are on the verge of a small correction, perhaps less than 5%, which should unfold over the next six weeks.
There is just not enough juice in a mini crisis triggered by one lousy Portuguese bank, the Banco Espiritu Santo, to take us any further. Bonds globally should put in their highs for the year during this period.
After that, it will be off to the races with a major year-end rally that could take us up another 10%. Both old tech and new tech, plus biotech and social media will be the front runners in this next leg of the bull market. Fixed income products will suffer across the board.
These were the results of the exhaustive research Jim undertakes every quarter using his proprietary analytical system. His goal is to define the best long and short opportunities across all asset classes.
Ignore him at your peril. Last year Jim?s system delivered a gob smacking trading return of over 300%.
Jim, a 40-year veteran of the trading pits in Chicago, would tell you all this himself. But as he is a product of the Windy City?s lamentable school district, the task of translating his pivot points, swing counts, and support and resistance levels into simple ?BUYS? and ?SELLS? falls to me.
What else can I say?
By the way, a pivot point is a number Jim?s system serves up once a quarter dictating the tone of the market for individual securities. Trade above the pivot, and we are in ?RISK ON? mode. Trade below it, and we need to take a decidedly ?RISK OFF? posture.
Swing counts then project the distance a security should travel once the directional call has been determined. Think of it as your own private inertial navigation system for your trading approach.
Equities
With that said, Jim?s pivot for the S&P 500 for Q3 is 1,970. As we are well below that now, you can expect some further work to be done on the downside, possibly as low at the 1,875-1,895 range over the next six weeks.?That would then be a sweet spot to initiate new longs.
The NASDAQ 100 has a pivot of 3,811 for Q3, a few percent above here. Jump back into the technology arena with a tight stop in the 3,700-3,725 neighborhood, or down some 5%, which works out to around $90 for ETF (QQQ) players.
Among foreign markets, Jim likes Japan?s Nikkei (DXJ), is wary of the German DAX, and is neutral on Australia (EWA).
Point a gun to his head, and Jim will opt for the Wisdom Tree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (HEDJ), a customized long European equity/short Euro ETF that effectively prices these stocks in US dollars. Think of it as a (DXJ) with a French accent.
?Bonds
Jim sees a rare, generational opportunity, to sell bonds setting up for August. They could grind up until then off the back of today?s news from Europe, but not by much. Use $137.00 as the pivot point for the 30-year bonds futures.
The market?s Focus will remain on the SPX/Bond spread, as it has all year. When the Equity Indices go into profit taking mode, bonds are the only place to park money, taking prices northward.
Long term, he favors the short side of the bond market, when conditions allow.?His game plan remains to sell bonds at these levels, with tight stops, until proven wrong.
My own strategy of buying out of the money (TLT) put spreads on a monthly basis also works perfectly in this scenario. Use every three-point rally as an opportunity to get in.
We are on the threshold of a more normalized interest rate environment, with a long awaited reversion to the mean in rates imminent. Jim says that the entire bond world is about to roll over.
Foreign Currencies
Jim isn?t getting too excited about foreign currencies these days, which appear to have fallen into a bottomless volatility trap. He doesn?t see any big moves unless a serious risk off trend develops in the equity markets, which is unlikely.
Use the Australian dollar (FXA) as your lead currency with which to make directional calls for the entire asset class. The pivot there is $94.60 in the cash market. As we are now at $93.68, stand aside.
The Japanese yen (FXY) has done its best impression of a Kansas horizon this year of any financial asset. It will continue to flat line as long as the jury is out on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe?s ?third arrow? economic and reform strategy. The yen will eventually weaken against the greenback, but it could be a long wait. Until then, use 101.33 as a pivot.
If you have to hate a currency in 2014, make it the Euro (FXE), with a pivot of $139.50. Sell every rally against this figure until the cows come home. The fundamentals for a weaker continental currency are building by the day. But we won?t see real fireworks until we close below $135.50. Then we?ll be targeting $127.50.
Commodities
Jim likes the precious metals (GLD), (SLV) and thinks the recent bottom will last for some time. This is further confirmed by the miners (GDX), which appear to have staged a major turnaround.
Bond market rallies have been highly correlated to metals rallies this year, at least for over the short term. So follow the sparkly stuff along with a bond rally into August. Lower rates will be price positive the metals. Use $1,265-$1,275 as your pivot for gold going forward. For silver use $19.70.
Copper (CU) is a bit of a conundrum, as it is stuck, in the middle of one-year range, so don?t chase recent rally. Use $2.95 as the pivot there. It?s not going anywhere until China decides what to do with its economy.
Don?t buy into the upside breakout school of thought for oil (USO) until we close over 104.70-105.30 (last qtr's high). That?s where you can count on the buy stops to kick in. At the current $102, we are firmly in bear territory. Talk to Jim when oil breaks this quarter?s resistance and upside momentum level at 107.50.
Infrastructures plays are still the best way to participate in any move in the natural gas (UNG) market. At the top of the list is Mad Hedge Fund Trader long time favorite, Cheniere Energy (LNG), up from $6 to $74.??(LNG) should be on your shopping list on any big equity index sell-off.?This week may see a low, and then a substantial rally when July futures expire.
The Ags
Agricultural commodities (CORN), (SOYB), (WEAT), (DBA) have been the major disaster area of 2014, thanks to the best growing conditions in history. Not only has the weather been perfect, the US Department of Agriculture keeps ?finding? new stockpiles. Conditions have been improving in major export markets abroad, as well.
Farmers may get a break this week when multiple futures contracts expire. At the very least, we should get a dead cat bounce. After that, it?s up to Mother Nature.
By the way, Jim Parker?s Mad Day Trader service has attracted a substantial following over the past year. If you are not already getting Jim?s dynamite short term ?BUY? and ?SELL? calls, please get yourself the unfair advantage you deserve.
Just email Nancy in customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com and ask for the $1,500 a year upgrade from your existing Global Trading Dispatch service to Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO. The service includes Jim?s timely Trade Alerts, a running daily market commentary, and the daily morning webinar, The Opening Bell with Jim Parker.
The Quarterly Calls Are In
Global Market Comments
July 11, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THURSDAY, JULY 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM BARCELONA, SPAIN),
(JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(WILL SYNBIO SAVE OR DESTROY THE WORLD?)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)
Monsanto Company (MON)
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)
SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH)
Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014.
A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks.
You are welcome to attend in your mountain climbing gear, but you will have to leave your boots at the door. Socks only are welcome, and if it?s cold, we will throw some extra wood on the fire. Last year, someone came down from the Matterhorn summit straight to the seminar, sunburned and tired, but elated. He even gave me a valued pebble from the summit.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $195.
I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a central Zermatt hotel with a great Matterhorn view, operated by one of the village?s oldest families and long time friends of mine. The hotel is just down the street from the town?s beautiful 17th century church.
The details will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
Global Market Comments
July 10, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY IS THE S&P 500 BEATING THE DOW),
(SPY), (BAC), (HPQ), (AA), (GS), (V), (NKE), (AAPL),
(GE), ($NIKK), (CAT), (DIS), (INTC),
(AN EVENING WITH BILL GATES, SR.)
(TESTIMONIAL)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)
Alcoa Inc. (AA)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
Visa Inc. (V)
Nike, Inc. (NKE)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
General Electric Company (GE)
Tokyo Nikkei Average (EOD) INDX ($NIKK)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Global Market Comments
July 9, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 11 SARDINIA, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(DON?T BE SHORT CHINA HERE),
($SSEC), (FXI), (CYB), (CHL), (BIDU),
(CATCHING UP WITH ECONOMIST DAVID HALE),
(EEM), (GREK), (IWW), (EWJ), (NGE), (FXY), (YCS)
Shanghai Stock Exchange Index ($SSEC)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB)
China Mobile Limited (CHL)
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK)
iShares Russell 3000 Value (IWW)
iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)
Global X Nigeria Index ETF (NGE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
I have been relying on David Hale as my de facto global macro economist for decades and I never miss an opportunity to get his updated views. The challenge is in writing down David?s eye popping, out of consensus ideas fast enough, because he spits them out in such a rapid-fire succession.
Since David is an independent economic advisor to many of the world?s governments, largest banks and investment firms, I thought his views would be of riveting interest to you.
I met him this time at the posh Ozumo restaurant on San Francisco?s waterfront, near the Ferry Building. A favorite of Silicon Valley?s tech titans, I bumped into Marc Andreessen on the way in, nearly impaling myself on his pointed head.
I settled for a delicate vegetable tempura and eel sushi, while David, being from the Midwest, dug into an excellent Wagyu beefsteak. We washed it all down with liberal doses of Kirin beer and Takagi Shuzo designer sake.
David is an unmitigated bull on the economy, predicting that growth will leap from 2.0% in 2013 to 3% in 2014. Fading away of the fiscal drag created by a gridlocked congress will be the main reason.
Last year, we were hobbled by the maximum Federal income tax rising from 35% to 39.5% for income over $400,000. Capital gains rose from 15% to 20% as well. These combined to subtract 1% off US GDP growth in 2013. There are no such tax hikes planned for 2014.
The economy continues to power along, supported by three legs: housing, the energy boom and a reviving auto industry. Detroit is expected to pump out over 17 million vehicles this year, a figure only dreamed about six years ago, when it hit a rock bottom 9 million unit annual rate.
Management has a death grip on controlling costs, which is why they aren?t hiring, and explains the feeble employment statistics. This has enabled profit margins to surge to all time highs. Expect more of the same.
Europe should grow by 1% in 2014 after delivering a near zero rate this year. It will take years for them to return to any kind of normalized growth rate. That said, continental stock markets could well outperform those in the US in the near term.
David spends much of his time traveling, doing a major intercontinental trip almost every month. The coming calendar includes Japan, Australia, and Europe by yearend. To have his frequent flier points!
Two years ago, David was banging his drum about an imminent recovery in Japan (EWJ) and a collapse in the yen (FXY), (YCS). He was ignored by virtually all, except by me. As you may recall, I started laying on major short positions in the yen about then at David?s behest, which proved wildly successful.
The proof is in the constant testimonials that I regularly publish in my letter. I don?t make these up and they come in almost every day.
David believes that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is doing all the right things, so the recovery is real, sustainable and will play out over several more years. However, he would have been wise to spread out the VAT tax rise that took place in April, from 5% to 8%, over five years instead of bunching it all up in one.
He also should spend less time focusing on domestic nationalistic issues, which have the undesirable effect in that it focuses China on Japan?s regrettable past, not its bright future.
He is also quite an authority on emerging markets (EEM), which account for 40% of global GDP, and sees the recent collapse as presenting a once in a generation buying opportunity.
His favorite is Mexico (EWW), which will benefit hugely from the first new round of political and economic reforms in 20 years. The new oil and gas fracking technology has also arrived just in the nick of time, as its existing conventional fields are approaching exhaustion.
David thinks Greece (GREK) has more to run, although not at the heady pace of the past year. Nigeria (NGE) is another outstanding opportunity, where he recently visited. A privatization wave there could boost GDP growth from 7% to 10%.
To show you how wide David casts his net, he had lunch with none other than Syria?s Bashar al-Assad a decade ago. The country was then enacting a series of ground-breaking liberalizations by privatizing banks, and was viewed as the hot frontier market of the day. How things change!
This is why investors expect outsized returns from these countries. Less, and the risk is not worth it. They?re called ?frontier? for a reason.
David has in the past made some far out predictions that were real zingers. Population growth is grinding to a halt throughout Asia. It is already well below the replacement rate in Japan and South Korea, which will soon be joined by China.
This will eventually lead to labor shortages in Asia, and bring to an end the cheap labor regime, which has driven their economies for the past 100 years. The Chinese work force will shrink from five times ours to only three times.
Their cost advantage then goes out the window. The upshot for us is that perhaps half of the 6 million jobs that America lost to China over the last 20 years will come back. Many items can now be bought cheaper in Chicago than they can in Shanghai.
This explains why ?onshoring? is accelerating with a turbocharger (click here for ?The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating?).
China will still become far and away the world?s largest economy in our lifetimes. In 1700, Asia accounted for 58% of world GDP. Some 250 years of wars pulled that figure down to 15% by 1950. It is on track to recover to 50% by 2050.
To learn more about David Hale and the extensive list of services he offers; please visit the website of David Hale Global Economics at http://www.davidhaleweb.com.
Global Market Comments
July 8, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 18 BARCELONA, SPAIN STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(TIME TO TAKE ANOTHER RIDE WITH GENERAL MOTORS), (GM), (F), (TM),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(QUANTITATIVE EASING EXPLAINED TO A 12 YEAR OLD)
General Motors Company (GM)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
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