Global Market Comments
December 16, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(REPORT FROM THE FROZEN WASTELANDS OF THE WEST)
Global Market Comments
December 13, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(MY MARKET TAKE FOR THE REST OF 2013),
(DOUBLING UP ON SOFTBANK), (SFTBY)
(SPY), (XLF), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL),
(TESTIMONIAL)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Global Market Comments
December 12, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IS THIS THE BIG TRADE OF 2014?),
(GLD), (SLV), ($SSEC), (EEM), (FXI),
(JJC), (DBA), (CORN), (CU), (USO), (KOL),
(A CHRISTMAS DONATION FOR THE WORTHIEST OF CAUSES)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU)
United States Oil (USO)
Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)
I follow a broad range of unconventional, but highly useful leading economic indicators that gives me a decisive edge when predicting the future direction of global financial markets. One of them has started flashing a warning sign.
I fund an orphanage in remote Zhanjiang, in China?s southern Guangdong province, near Hainan Island called The Zhanjiang Kids Organization that catches the kids who missed out on China?s economic miracle.
Lacking America?s social safety net, child abandonment in the Middle Kingdom usually leads to a cruel death through malnutrition or disease at the few primitive public institutions that exist. With China?s one child policy now 30 years old, most families prefer their sole heir to be a boy, which means that girls account for the vast majority of orphan children.
Recently, there has been an upsurge of children dropped off at the orphanage and a sudden increase in the age of the kids. Twelve-year-old boys are being dumped because they cannot be fed.
For a Chinese family to give up a boy this close to working age is truly an act of desperation. As a trader, this is all proof to me that the Chinese economy is slowing faster than people realize, and that the global economy will take a deeper dip this summer.
I usually avoid organized charities like the plague. The great majority are scams where 95% of the funds raised go to ?administrative costs? that usually end up in someone?s personal bank account. As we all know, the corruption in China is rampant.
The Zhanjiang Kids Organization is a rare exception. I know the organizers personally, who originally got involved by adopting a couple of girls there, and they are saints. They carefully oversee the spending of every single dollar, assuring that it gets spent for its intended purposes.
Instead of doling out cash to local organizations, which often gets lost, as other organizations do, they undertake physical delivery of desperately needed food, books, and medical supplies. They also organize trips for volunteer pediatricians, educators, and administrators from the US.
As a result of my spring fund raising effort, I am told that the administrators were able to pay for a pediatrician and a dentist to fly in from the US. Kids were also given new toys. Initially, some didn?t know what to do with these, as they had never seen toys before. We take things like blocks, puzzles, and picture books for granted. Imagine what goes through a five year olds mind when he or she sees one for the first time.
Yes, I know that I am a hardened old ex-Marine combat veteran and am driven by the harsh reality of numbers, and not emotion. But when I hear stories like these, I melt. I know a lot of you have made a bundle following my advice this year, with some up as much as 500%.
If you made $1 million, please donate $1,000. If you clocked $100,000, that should be worth a $100 gift. This is a rare example where $1 worth of generosity creates $1,000 worth of good. Talk about bang per buck!
To learn more about The Zhanjiang Kids Organization, please visit their website http://www.zhanjiangkids.org/. There, you can contribute directly through your PayPal account or credit card. If you have any further questions about this fine organization, please contact director Susan Doshier directly at susandoshier@gmail.com .
Checks should be made payable to the ?Zhanjiang Kids Organization? and sent to Zhanjiang Kids Organization, c/o Susan Doshier, 2 Abbey Woods Lane, Dallas TX 75248, USA. Print out a hard copy of your receipt. This organization is set up as a US 501 (3) (c), so all contributions are fully deductible on the 2012 Form 1040, schedule ?A?. There is no reason why Uncle Sam shouldn?t pick up one third of the tab.
Act in your own self-interest. You may be working for one of these orphans someday. If you don?t, your kids will.
Global Market Comments
December 11, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),
(SAY GOODBYE TO YOUR FAVORITE TEACHER),
(RAILROADS ARE BREAKING OUT ALL OVER),
(UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP), (ACI)
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
CSX Corp. (CSX)
Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP)
Arch Coal Inc. (ACI)
Corporate earnings are up big! Great! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. There is, in fact, an explanation for this madness. According to the Commerce Department?s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits accounts for only a small part of the economy. Using the income method of calculating GDP, corporate profits account for only 15% of the reported GDP figure. The remaining components are doing poorly, or are too small to have much of an impact. Wages and salaries are in a three decade long decline. Interest and investment income is falling, because of the low level of interest rates and the collapse of the housing market. Farm incomes are up, but are a small proportion of the total. Income from non-farm unincorporated business, mostly small business, is unimpressive. It gets more complicated than that. A disproportionate share of corporate profits are being earned overseas. So multinationals with a big foreign presence, like Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Caterpillar (CAT), and IBM (IBM), have the most rapidly growing profits and pay the least amount in taxes. They really get to have their cake, and eat it too. Many of their business activities are contributing to foreign GDP?s, like China?s, much more than they are here. Those with large domestic businesses, like retailers, earn far less, but pay more in tax, as they lack the offshore entities in which to park profits. The message here is to not put all your faith in the headlines, but to look at the numbers behind the numbers. Those who bought in anticipation of good corporate profits last month, got those earnings, and then got slaughtered in the marketplace. Buyer beware.
Don?t bother taking an apple to school to give your favorite teacher, unless you want to leave it in front of a machine. The schoolteacher is about to join the sorry ranks of the service station attendant, the elevator operator, and the telephone operators whose professions have been rendered useless by technology.
The next big social trend in this country will be to replace teachers with computers. It is being forced by the financial crisis afflicting states and municipalities, which are facing red ink as far as the eye can see. From a fiscal point of view, of the 50 US states, we really have 30 Portugals, 10 Italys, 10 Irelands, 5 Greeces, and 5 Spains.
The painful cost cutting, layoffs, and downsizing that has swept the corporate area for the past 30 years is now being jammed down the throat of the public sector, the last refuge of slothful management and indifferent employees. Some 60% of high school students are already exposed to online educational programs, which enable teachers to handle far larger class sizes than the 40 students now common in California.
It makes it far easier to impose pay for productivity incentives on teachers, like linking teacher pay to student test scores, as a performance review is only a few mouse clicks away. These programs also qualify for government funding programs, like ?Race to the Top.? Costly textbooks can be dispensed with.
The alternative is to bump classroom sizes up to 80, or close down schools altogether. State deficits are so enormous that I can see public schools shutting down, privatizing their sports programs, and sending everyone home with a laptop. The cost savings would be huge. No more pep rallies, prom nights, or hanging around your girlfriend?s locker. Of course, our kids may turn out a little different, but they appear to be at the bottom of our current list of priorities.
The Old School Marm Will Be Sorely Missed
Global Market Comments
December 10, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(GOTTA LOVE THAT NOVEMBER NONFARM PAYROLL),
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT SPURTS TO 59%),
(SPY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (TLT), (FXY)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service is still going ballistic, reaching the heady height of 59% for the year.
I know some of your saw your faith challenged when, at one point, the stock market was looking at five consecutive down days last week. The red ink all disappeared when the November nonfarm payroll delivered shockingly positive numbers, thus delivering one of my best up days of the year.
Including both open and closed trades, 24 out of the last 26 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable.
The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader is now up 59.76% in 2013. November came in at a stunning +11.58%, while the December month to date record now stands at +3.68%.
The three-year return is an eye popping 114.77%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 32%.
That brings my averaged annualized return up to 38.3%.
This has been the profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was launched three years ago. It all is a matter of the harder I work, the luckier I get.
I took profits on my long position in Citigroup (C), which just achieved a major upside breakout, and then rolled the capital into the Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLV). I cashed in on a short position in the Treasury bond market (TLT). I?ll go back in on the next rally. I also took profits on short positions in the Japanese yen as it approached new lows for the year, then doubled up again on a subsequent rally there.
I caught the entire 10% move up in Apple (AAPL) with a major long position. Higher levels beckon. My remaining long positions in the Industrials Sector Select SPDR (XLI) are contributing daily to my P&L, thank you very much. An aggressive position in the Japanese online giant, Softbank (SFTBY), also turned profitable, playing on the Japanese economic revival.
This is how the pros do it, and you can too, if you wish.
Carving out the 2013 trades alone, 74 out of 89 have made money, a success rate of 83%. It is a track record that most big hedge funds would kill for.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, has also been coining it. Since April, his own performance numbers have just come back from the auditors, revealing that he is up a staggering 279%.
The coming winter promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere in 2014. The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy. Please join me on the gravy train. You will never get a better chance than this to make money for your personal account.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars.? Upgrade to?Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO?and you will also receive Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service.
To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? box on the right, and click on the lime green ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.
Global Market Comments
December 9, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LESSONS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR),
(FXA), (EWA),
(HANGING OUT WITH THE WOZ), (AAPL),
(TESTIMONIAL)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
iShares MSCI Australia (EWA)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.