Global Market Comments
December 17, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO PLAY APPLE IN 2016), (AAPL),
(THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Global Market Comments
December 17, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO PLAY APPLE IN 2016), (AAPL),
(THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Not a day goes by when someone doesn?t ask me about what to do about Apple (AAPL).
After all, it is the world largest company. It is the planet?s most widely owned stock. Almost everyone uses their products in some form or another.
So the widespread interest is totally understandable.
Apple is a company with which I have a very long relationship. During the early 1980?s, I was ordered by Morgan Stanley to take Steve Jobs around to the big New York institutional investors to pitch a secondary share offer for the sole reason that I as one of three people who worked for the firm who was then from California.
They thought one West Coast hippy would easily get along with another. Boy, were they wrong. It was the worst day of my life.
Today, some 200 Apple employees subscribe to the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, looking to diversify their substantial holdings. Many own Apple stock with an adjusted cost basis of under $5. Suffice it to say, they all drive really nice Prius?s.
So I get a lot of information about the firm far above and beyond the normal effluent of the media and stock analysts. That?s why Apple has become a favorite target of my Trade Alerts over the years.
And here is the take: You don?t want to touch the stock during the first quarter of 2016.
And here?s why. Apple is all about the iPhone, which accounts for 75% of its total earnings. The TV, the watch, the car, iPods, the iMac, and Apple pay are all a waste of time, and consume far more coverage than they are collectively worth.
The good news is that iPhone sales are subject to a fairly reliable cycle. Apple launches a major new iPhone every other fall. The share price peaks shortly after that. The odd years see the introduction of the ?S? models. But these are minor upgrades, not generational changes.
So during those in between years, the stock performance is disappointing. 2015 certainly has followed this script, with Apple up a modest 1.2% YTD as of this writing.
The coming quarter could be especially scary.
Just like you see a big pull back in the tide before a tsunami hits, iPhone sales are flattening out. This is because consumers start delaying purchases in expectation of the introduction of the iPhone 7 in September 2016 with far more power, gadgets, and gizmos.
Channel checks, however dubious these may be, are already confirming the slowdown of orders for iPhone related semiconductors from suppliers you would expect from such a downturn.
The weakness assures that the current selloff will continue. With any luck, you might be able to pick up shares in the $90?s, last seen during the August 25 flash crash.
However, after March things will start to get interesting, especially post the Q1 earnings report in April. That?s when investors will start to discount the rollout of the iPhone 7 five months later.
The last time this happened, in 2014, Apple stock rocketed by 88.5%. This time, I expect at least a 50% increase to $150, if you can get in around $100.
After all, I am such a conservative guy with my predictions..
Even at that price, it will still be one of the cheapest stocks in the market on a valuation basis. The value players will have not choice to join in, if they?re not already there.
But Apple is a much bigger company this time around, and well-established cycles tend to bring in diminishing returns. It?s like watching the declining peaks of a bouncing rubber ball.
The bull case for Apple isn?t dead, it is just resting.
The China business will continue to grow nicely. Their new lease program promises to deliver a faster upgrade cycle that will allow higher premium prices for their products. That will bring larger profits.
Just thought you?d like to know.
Global Market Comments
December 16, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SETTING UP THE ?BUY? FOR JUNK BONDS),
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG),
(THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU),
(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD),
(TESTIMONIAL)
ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
Probably the best Trade Alert of 2015 that I wrote up, but never sent out, was for the ProShares Short High Yield ETF (SJB). That is a bet that makes money when the prices for junk bonds fall.
Back in May, it was clear to me that junk bond prices had hit ?LALA land.? Yields were only 200 basis points above similar maturity Treasury bonds.
Risk was being wildly mispriced. Investors were taking on a whole lot of principal risk, but were barely compensated for it.
It was a classic reach for yield. This only ends in tears.
The reason I didn?t pull the trigger is that when you sell short any kind of bond or equity, you become liable for paying the interest or the dividend. In the high yield junk realm at the time, that meant forking out 5% per annum.
That?s a big nut to cover in order to make a profit. To end up in the green on a position like this, your timing has to be perfect. Paying that kind of carry, you pretty much want prices to stat falling immediately.
As it turned out, holding firm at the time was the right thing to do. While I nailed the high for the year, Junk bonds (HYG), (JNK) declined, but not by much. Then in August, they fell like a ton of bricks.
Here we are seven months later in a completely different world.
All of the trades that prospered mightily from quantitative easing are being unwound in a hurry.
It seems like investors are only just waking up to the implications of the demise of an aggressive monetary policy that met its demise 14 months ago. It?s a bit like closing the barn door after the horses have bolted.
However, it took this week?s imminent interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve to really bring matters to a head.
Junk bonds are now yielding 9.0%, while energy related paper is well into double digits. The talk is that as many as 25% of energy junk bonds will default (click here for ?Here Comes the Final Bottom in Oil? ).
Two junk bond funds have gone under, refusing to honor redemption requests from owners. Prices are in free fall. It all has the flavor of a final capitulation.
Which means that I am finally stating to get interested in junk bonds.
This is the problem with this market. Junk bonds are the last holdout of old fashioned traders. No two issues look alike, so they can?t be commoditized. That means they can?t be subject to automated online trading. High frequency traders never touch them.
If you want to trade in junk bonds, you have to call around to other traders and investors and ask if they have any interest. You keep calling until you find someone willing to take the other side of your trade.
Needless to say, this is a tedious and time-consuming process. It is a lot like the trading world I first joined in the 1970?s.
Another problem is that Dodd Frank has banned the big banks and brokers from taking positions in this paper like they used to. That means there is no final supplier of liquidity, so it is worse than it has ever been.
It is a good rule of thumb that the junk bond yield roughly reflects the market?s default expectations. So the present 9% yield means investors expect approximately 9% of the paper to default.
And here is where you make the money.
Markets tend to wildly overshoot with their expectations. In 2009 junk bonds carried a 25% yield. The actual default rate that followed was only 2%.
Markets then spent five year repricing this reality into these securities. As a result, junk bonds were one of the best investments you could have made back then.
They were the subject of regular strong ?BUY? recommendations by the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. They eventually more than doubled in value. That?s a lot for a bond.
While today?s 9% is nowhere near 25%, we are also in nothing like a 2009 financial collapse. Call the current volatility a correction, a bout of nervousness, a setback, or even a frisson. End of the world stuff it isn?t.
Which leads me to believe that at 9%, you are being fairly compensated for your risk.
You wanted to reach for yield? Now there is some yield to reach for.
9% covers a multitude of sins.
I would like to express how much I enjoy reading your newsletter and the global views that I gain from it.?
It has been the best, by far, and the most financially worthwhile letter I have ever bought.? I find most newsletters spin and promote their returns during the good times, and never factor in or disclose their bad times.
I have had some bad trades with you, but the results from the good trades far outnumber them.? I do take positions based on your recommendations and have done very well.?
My portfolio has grown by over $1 million from shorting the yen, since late November, based on your calls. That is with no more than $200,000 invested in yen shorts at any one time. This has been far and away the single best trade of my life!
Thank you very much! May we all have many more of these!!
Thanks John,
Rob
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Global Market Comments
December 15, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 16 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THREE CHEERS FOR GERMANY),
(EWG), (HEDJ), (EUO), (FXE),
(TESTIMONIAL)
iShares MSCI Germany (EWG)
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
I noticed last week that Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, was picked by the editors of Time Magazine as their ?Person of the Year.?
This is creating an outstanding investment opportunity, a real game changer. As a result, Germany?s economy could grow by an extra 1% a year. But more on that later.
She received the accolade for convincing her country to accept 1 million refugees from the Middle East. They will be plopped down in the middle of a population of 80.6 million, so it is a very big deal.
That is like the US taking in 4 million refugees with no notice. The most we took in after the collapse of Vietnam was 125,000.
In addition, she talked her electorate into bailing out Greece, not once, but twice.
I SAY ?THREE CHEERS? FOR GERMANY.
History has really come full circle. After bearing the cross for the holocaust for seven decades, the country carries out one of the greatest humanitarian acts of all time.
I know the Germans well.
I lived in West Berlin during the 1960?s with a former Nazi family. Needless to say, the dinner conversations were interesting. But they loved Americans, for it was we who rescued them from the Russians and Bolshevism in 1945.
I spent my weekends smuggling western newspapers and US dollars into East Berlin to the underground across Checkpoint Charlie. I was too young and dumb to know any better.
When I got caught, I spent a night in a communist jail cell. To this day, the words ?Das ist Verboten? still send a chill down my back. The East German Volkspolizei were not very nice guys.
If you want to see a close approximation of that prison, go watch the just released Stephen Spielberg movie ?Bridge of Spies,? about the Gary Powers exchange. They really nailed the Cold War atmosphere of Berlin during the sixties.
Yes, when I was 16, I used to listen to machine guns mow down fleeing refugees at night. Every time a guard hit someone, they were awarded a gold watch. I lived in Tiergarten, within easy earshot of the Berlin Wall at Brandenburg Gate. And you wonder why I?m such a tough guy.
Angela Merkel has always been an enigma to me. Those of us who know the old East Germany well, find it difficult to imagine anyone intelligent or useful coming from there. To see her leading an essentially conservative country is positively mind blowing.
She is clearly brilliant, with a PhD in physics. She is fluent in Russian, and is in close communication with Vladimir Putin on a regular basis in his own language. She entered politics as soon as the wall came down in 1989, signing up with the conservative Christian Democratic Union.
Today, she is widely considered the de facto leader of Europe. She is also regarded as the most powerful woman in history (at least for another year).
Full Disclosure: During my annual European sojourns, I always spend a day briefing Merkel?s staff in Berlin about the current state of the world. I also attempt to decode the American political scene, which Europeans find an indecipherable mystery, but which has enormous implications for them.
?The Person of the Year? can be a dubious honor, and is defined as the person who most influenced history that year. Aviation pioneer Charles Lindbergh, who first soloed the Atlantic Ocean, was originally picked by Time in 1927.
Adolph Hitler was named in 1938 for peacefully redrawing the map of Europe. The only other Germans so named were Konrad Adenauer in 1953, the country?s postwar leader, and Willy Brandt in 1970, noted for normalizing relations with the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.
To say that Germany is overwhelmed by the immigrant crisis would be a severe understatement.
Almost every high school gym in the country has been converted to emergency housing. There are shortages of everything, from blankets to clothing and translators.
Medieval Afghan men are showing up with 13-year old brides. The backlash is that the Nazi party is experiencing a resurgence of popularity, not only in Germany, also in the Netherlands, France, and Sweden.
If it weren?t for the commitments of this newsletter, I would be back in Berlin in a heartbeat volunteering my services.
Needless to say, the bill for all of this will be enormous. Germany is really the only country that could afford dispensing so much aid.
One of the reasons it can do so is that it happens to have a spare country at hand. Much of the old East Germany is still empty, its cities depopulated. This is where the new immigrants will eventually be settled.
It is perhaps because Angela is a mathematician that she understands there is an enormous long-term dividend that the country will reap.
Look at the economic growth rates of the US and Europe for the past 50 years, and the continent has always lagged the US by 1% per annum. By opening up the gates to a flood of immigration, Germany can make up this difference. So can the rest of Europe.
The great thing for Germany is that these are not your ordinary political or economic refugees. Much of the Syrian middle class has decamped, bringing their educational and professional skills with them. For the Germans, it is a win-win.
This is not a long-term thing. German GDP growth recently and unexpectedly surged, from a 0.3% to a +1.5% annual rate. Some of this is no doubt due to the European Central Bank?s newly aggressive policy of monetary easing. Massive spending on social services has to also be a factor.
European stocks are already poised to outperform American ones by two to one in 2016, thanks to quantitative easing, the postponement of the Greek crisis, and a generation low in asset prices there. Immigrants could pour the economic gasoline to the fire.
Clearly German stocks are a prime target here, which you can buy through the iShares Germany Fund (EWG), as is Europe in general, with the Wisdom Tree European Hedged Equity Fund (HEDJ). But make sure you hedge out your European currency risk for the short term, as the (HEDJ) does.
A revival of the continental economy will also eventually engineer a recovery in the Euro (FXE), (EUO) against the dollar. Don?t press those shorts too aggressively down here.
The great irony here is that this is all unfolding in Germany while mosque burning and bombing are taking place across the US, and there is talk of closing its border on religious grounds.
It is the sort of thing that happened in Germany in 1938, as my former Berlin hosts would have reminded me.
History is coming full circle a second time.
I have been in the money management business working for a long time-only manager for 18 years, and in this business for 35.? I know you are the real deal.?
I also know many hedge fund managers. Besides Ken Griffin in Chicago at Citadel, who is up 16% year to date, very few are even up for the year.?
I believe in what you do.
Don
Cleveland, OH
?Everything begins and ends with quantitative easing?, said Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of hedge fund Doubleline Capital, and the new bond king.
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