Global Market Comments
February 17, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(HOW FAR WILL BIOTECH RUN?),
(GILD), (IBB)
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB)
Global Market Comments
February 17, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(HOW FAR WILL BIOTECH RUN?),
(GILD), (IBB)
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB)
Long-term readers of this letter have prospered mightily from my addiction to biotech stocks in recent years, one of the most reliably top performing sectors in the stock market.
But have we visited the well one time too many times? Is biotech turning into a bubble that will eventually deliver the same grievous outcome of other past bubbles?
Not yet.
Still, one has to ask the question. No less a figure than Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen has indicated that she thought valuations in the biotech sector were getting ?substantially stretched.? The Fed doesn?t single out stocks for commentary very often.
Biotech certainly has been a money-spinner for followers of my top performing Trade Alert service, which delivered a 30.5% profit in 2014.
Readers made three round trips in hepatitis C drug developer Gilead Sciences (GILD) in the past four months, adding 5.77% to the value of their portfolios. I believe the company?s blockbuster drug will become the most profitable in history. So do a lot of others.
Longer-term investors bought the Biotech iShares ETF (IBB) on my advice, which gained an impressive 45% last year, and is still rising.
However, biotech has long been a hedge fund favorite.
That means many shareholders are only dating these stocks and are not married to them. The hot money regularly flows in and out, giving the sector more than double the volatility of the main market. A 10% correction in any other stock is worth at least 25% in biotech.
This also makes biotech stocks great to buy on a dip. My last foray into (GILD) occurred after cautious guidance took the shares down a heart stopping 10% in a single day.
This is a great example of how unusually sensitive biotech stocks are to headline risk. I?ve ridden stocks to tremendous heights, watching them pour billions into a single treatment, only to see them crash and burn on failed stage three trials.
That is just the nature of their business. It?s all about all or nothing bets.
It?s just a matter of time before one of the major companies gets stuck with a hickey like this, flushing billions down the drain. That could herald a generalized sector selloff that could last months, or even years.
Biotech is a high-risk sector that should only be held within a well diversified portfolio. You may notice that in the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s model trading portfolio I never have more than 10% in biotech at any given time. I figure I could handle a total blow up and lose the whole 10% and still stay in business.
When I speak at conferences, strategy luncheons and on TV, I tell listeners of my lazy man?s guide to long-term investment. Only follow three sectors, technology, biotech and energy, and ignore the other 97. You?ll save yourself a lot of time reading pointless research.
Biotech currently accounts for a mere 1% of US GDP. It is on its way to 20%, about where technology is today. That means that a disproportionately large share of earnings growth will spring from biotech over the coming decades.
One way to protect yourself is to stick with the big caps, which are undervalued relative to the sector, and are expected to haul in 20% earnings growth this year.
Many smaller companies prices are assuming a total certainty of the success of their drugs. The reality is that this only happens about half the time.
If you do go with small caps, I would take a venture capital approach. Buy a dozen with the expectation that many will go under, a couple do OK, and one goes through the roof. Never put all your eggs in one basket.
It also helps that you have someone with a scientific background making your picks, like me. Because drug companies promise such amazing results, like curing cancer, the sector has always been prone to hype and over promotion. I never met I biotech CEO who didn?t believe his company was about to deliver the next panacea, taking his shares up tenfold.
One plus for biotech is that it has unusually strong patent protection, which usually extends out 20 years for new products. There are not a lot of Chinese companies that can imitate their drugs.
That means earnings can be predicted far into the future, and are largely immune from the economic cycle. If you?re sick, you want to get cured regardless of whether the GDP is growing or shrinking, or whether interest rates are low or high.
Make sure that your investments have plenty of new developments in the pipeline. Expiring patents on past winners with no replacements can spell certain death for a stock price.
Publicly listed drug companies are now venturing into research fields that were only science fiction when I was in the lab 45 years go. ?Gene editing? whereby genes can be repaired, edited and then turned on and off at will, is now becoming a burgeoning new science.
It promises to cure the whole range of human maladies, including heart disease, cancer, obesity and a whole range of degenerative diseases (including some of mine).
Expect to hear a lot more about TALENs (transcription activator-like effector nucleases) and CRISPR (clustered regular interspaced short palindromic repeats). You heard it here first.
What is truly fascinating is that hybrid computer science/biochemical scientists are now taking algorithms developed y the National Security Agency hackers and using them to decode human DNA. (I hope I?m not speaking too much out of school here.)
Gene editing is the natural outcome of the discovery of recombinant DNA technology developed during the 1970?s by Paul Berg, Herbert Boyer, and Stanley Cohen, all early heroes of mine.
Since none were the equity participants of private companies, the initial rewards for the breakthrough were minimal. I remember that one received a new surfboard for his efforts.
Berg went on to found Genentech (GENE) in 1977 and got rich. If I hadn?t gone into the stock market, that is almost certainly where I would have ended up.
How things have changed.
The short answer here is that biotech does have further to run. A lot further.
The rate of innovation of biotechnology is accelerating so fast that it will continue to spew out fantastic investment opportunities for the rest of your lives. So expect to receive many more Trade Alerts in this area in the years to come.
But it is definitely an ?E? ticket ride. So fasten your seatbelt on your path to riches.
As for me, I?m thrilled that I got to live so long to see this stuff happen. At times, it was a close run race.
?We need to have more faith in the central bank?s ability to print money?, said Scott Minerd, of Guggenheim Partners.
Global Market Comments
February 16, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(WHY ARE BOND YIELDS SO LOW?)
(TLT), (TBT), (LQD), (MUB), (LINE), (ELD),
(QQQ), (UUP), (EEM), (DBA)
(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Lcl Dbt ETF (ELD)
PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)
Global Market Comments
February 13, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THE CASE FOR EUROPE),
(FXE), (HEDJ), (RSX), (GREK), (GLD), (TLT), (SPY)
(OPTIONS FOR THE BEGINNER)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)
Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Global Market Comments
February 12, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HITTING TWO HOME RUNS IN ONE DAY),
(FXY), (GILD),
(THE NEW COLD WAR),
(THE HISTORY OF TECHNOLOGY)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
Those of you who are paid subscribers have the good fortune of waking up to a bounty of riches this morning.
Both Gilead Sciences (GILD) and the Japanese yen (FXY) have made gap moves in your favor overnight. Your long position in (GILD) saw a nice little $2 pop to the upside, and your short in the (FXY) just got whacked in the knees, down a full $1.
As a result, the Trade Alert model-trading portfolio is now up +4% on the year. It?s not exactly knocking the ball out of the park, but should be enough to keep you in fine Chardonnay for the rest of the year. And compared to most other suffering, money losing hedge fund traders, it is more than adequate.
If you followed my advice, your existing positions in these two securities are now close to their maximum expiration value. However, as is so often the case with deep in the money options with only days to expiration, they have become highly illiquid.
For example, the February (FXY) $87 puts are trading at $6.00-$6.90 on the screen, against an intrinsic value of $6.22 ($87 - $80.78 in the cash market = $6.22). So a market order to sell would most likely wipe out your entire profit.
So I am going to run my positions into expiration, given that we only have six trading days to go. These are my last two positions, so I also have an excess of dormant, unused cash.
I am trying to maintain some discipline here and restrict myself to only buying low and selling high. I know this sounds revolutionary, but it should work. Like you, I am not paid according to the volume of Trade Alerts I issue, only on their end results.
However, this market has shown a pronounced tendency to Giveth, and then abruptly Taketh Away. So, if you don?t want to wait until next week to collect your winnings and free up margin, you can put in some high limit orders to sell.
The Gilead Sciences (GILD) February, 2015 $35-$37 in-the-money bear put spread has an intrinsic value here of $5.00, so you can probably get a $4.95 offer done.
The Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) February, 2015 $84-$87 in-the-money vertical bear put spread has an intrinsic of $3.00, so $2.97 probably gets executed. If it doesn?t just re-enter the order tomorrow and try again, or lower your limit by a penny.
Congratulations, and on to the next one.
For me that is going to be an opportunistic short term long position in the S&P 500 (SPY) February 20 expiring options.
It?s rare to see an options spread with only six trading days to expiration offering so much money. But with the Volatility Index (VIX) holding in at a lofty 17.70%, we can take in a nearly 2% profit with a near strike that is a full 2% out of the money.
That means the S&P 500 (SPY) has to drop a hefty $4.60 by Friday next week for you to lose money on this position.
I know that?s not impossible in this uncertain environment. But I think that we are in nothing more than a long, sideways correction in a major long-term major uptrend, so this should work.
Traders are confused and disoriented, thanks to the massive one-way moves in oil and bonds in recent months. Many long tested models have blown up.
So rather than continue to hemorrhage money, they are giving up. The large intraday moves and sky-high volatility may continue. But I don?t expect any large sustainable net moves in the near future.
You are going to have to be especially vigilant with your stop loss on this (SPY) position, which I shall put at $202, as there is so little time left to expiration.
The 50 day moving average at $204 should give us plenty of support on the downside, and enough time to make it to expiration and get out whole.
Since this is a big contract and fairly close to the money, there should be plenty of liquidity right up to the last day, if we have to stop out.
Global Market Comments
February 11, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHO THE GRAND NICARAGUA CANAL HAS WORRIED),
(SCAM OF THE MONTH)
Global Market Comments
February 10, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY THE JANUARY NONFARM PAYROLL WAS A BIG DEAL),
(IWM), (DXJ), (HEDJ), (FXE), (FXY),
(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),
(TESTIMONIAL)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)
WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
Economists were blown away by the January nonfarm payroll numbers, announced on Friday.
Some 257,000 jobs were added the previous month, holding the headline unemployment figure at 5.7%. Far more important were the revisions for earlier months, which saw December increased to a robust 329,000 and November bumped up to a breathtaking 423,000.
These numbers are almost back to ?normal.? Are ?normal? interest rates to follow?
All told, the January report, the revisions and the additions to the work force means that 703,000 jobs were added to the economy, taking the year on year increase to a positively boom time 3 million. The last quarter has seen the fastest jobs growth rate since 1997. Yikes!
A major part of the new jobs were in retail, proof that our windfall tax cut in the form of falling gasoline prices is finally kicking in.
Needless to say, this is all a bit of a game changer.
It totally vindicates the high-end forecasts for the US economy of 3% plus I made in my New Year forecasts (click here for my ?2015 Annual Asset Class Review?).
The data confirms my thesis that investors are substantially underestimating the strength of the US economy. Furthermore, they have yet to understand the enormously positive impact of cheap energy prices.
It also means that the bull market in stocks is alive and well. It is only resting.
To understand why, let me highlight the major points brought to the fore by the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.
1) The US Economy Has Entered a Self Sustaining Recovery
The trend line for many economic data points are now moving so convincingly upward that they can no longer be treated as statistical anomalies. Nor can they be ascribed to temporary artificial overstimulation by the Federal Reserve in the form of quantitative easing.
Count on Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, to announce ?mission accomplished? when he address congress later on this week (click here for my one-on-one with Jack, ?Riding With the Treasury Secretary?).
My bet is that this is not our last blockbuster revision. Next to come will be the Q4 GDP, from the just reported flaccid 2.6% annual rate back towards the red hot 5% seen in Q3.
2) The Date for the Next Fed Rate Hike has Been Moved Up
The bond market certainly believed this last week, giving up 9 full points in a couple of days, taking yields from 2.62% to 2.92% in a heartbeat.
I still think this is a 2016 story. The pernicious effects of deflation are still advancing, not retreating, and are not exactly an argument for raising interest rates. But there is no doubt that the desire among the Fed governors to return rates to normal levels is growing, especially if the impact on the economy will be minimal. So call the next rate rise an early, rather than a later, 2016 eventuality.
3) The Strong Dollar is Becoming a Factor With Earnings
The Euro (FXE) has depreciated 31% against the dollar from its 2008 peak, and the yen (FXY) 38% from its 2011 apex. Yet the impact on corporate earnings so far has been marginal at best.
Where will it really start to hurt?
When these currencies approach my final targets of 87 cents and 150, or down another 22% and 18%. It is safe to say that a strong dollar will command an increasing amount of our attention going forward.
This is the argument for investing in small cap US stocks (IWM), where the currency exposure is minimal. Hedge European (HEDJ) and Japanese (DXJ) stocks start to look pretty good too.
4) Wages May Finally Be Rising
The biggest structural impediment facing the US economy has been wage inequality, where virtually all of the benefits of growth accrue to the risk investors of the 1% at the expense of the working class. Hyper accelerating technology and dreadfully imbalanced tax policies are to blame.
January brought us an increase in wages that was miniscule, incremental and modest at best, but it was an increase nonetheless. Average hourly earnings fell by 5 cents in December and then rose by 12 cents the following month.
If this continues, consumer spending will see a big revival, giving us yet another leg to a rising stock market, and creating a win-win situation for all.
One can only hope.
5) More Americans Are Looking for Work
The really amazing thing about the January numbers that they occurred in the face of a large increase in the work force. The participation rate, which has been plummeting for a decade, rose smartly. Long-term U-6 unemployment stayed high, but is down a quarter from peak levels.
To me, this is all a warm up for my ?Golden Age? in the 2020?s. The best is yet to come.
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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