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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Harry S. Dent, Jr. on Hedge Fund Radio

Diary, Newsletter

Your stock portfolio will get decimated by a stock market crash that could take the Dow average down 60% to 6,000 or lower. There will be no place to hide, as gold, silver, oil, real estate will see declines of similar magnitude.

Given the fresh dose of uncertainty besieging the markets these days, I thought I'd touch base with my pal, co-conspiring Eagle Scout, and fellow traveler, Harry S. Dent, Jr. It was inviting a bomb thrower to tea.

I listen to Harry, not because he is an iconoclast, one of the few original thinkers out there, and sometimes, a complete wild man, although these are all admirable qualities to be found in a global strategist. I listen to him because in the past, he has been as right as rain.

So when an opportunity arose to bag him for Hedge Fund Radio, I jumped. It would give my listeners an opportunity to sort through the tealeaves, work through alternative scenarios for the future of disparate asset classes, and test competing investment theories. What I got was nothing less than a Vulcan mind meld.

Harry argues passionately that we are witnessing the end of the third great bubble in debt, hot on the heels of earlier forays into madness in technology stocks and real estate. Add public and private debt from all sources, and it totals $130 trillion, the greatest accumulation of IOU?s in history. The Federal Reserve is now manipulating all markets, and the exercise is certain to end in tears. The only way out from this will be to suffer an economic and financial crisis worse than we have seen to date.

A key part of Harry?s work revolves around generational spending patterns. Americans see spending peak when they reach the ages of 46-50, and bleed off from there. He blends this perspective in with historical data on demographics and some traditional Eliot Wave Analysis to produce one of the most refined long-term views in the marketplace.

Harry runs an independent research boutique, which has accurately predicted many of the major moves in financial markets during the past 25 years.

His unique blend of demographic research, identification of global consumer spending patterns, and long-term cycle analysis, really makes Harry one of a kind. Foreign governments, major hedge funds, financial advisors, and individuals are all just wild about Harry. They have found his advice indispensible when navigating the sticky shoals of international finance.

Growth of the national debt (TLT) continues to be a major headache. Since the Great Depression, public spending has grown steadily, from supporting small town 'Mayberry' to the equivalent of a New York City. While much of the early deficit explosion resulted from WWII and Vietnam, all of the recent growth has come from entitlements, like Medicare and Social Security. Government estimates of $46 trillion in unfunded liabilities are wildly inaccurate, with $70 trillion closer to reality.

Harry's advice to investors is to use any strength in coming months to unload stocks (SPY) (IWM). He would sell all remaining holdings in gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). He also wants to dump oil (USO) and other energy plays (XLE). And he believes we are about to enter a prolonged period of dollar strength. His favorite vehicle for the greenback is the ETF (UUP), which offers investors a long position against a basket of foreign currencies.

Harry is a native of South Carolina, who like Federal Reserve governor Ben Bernanke, went off to Harvard where he got his MBA. His career then took him to the top-notch private equity firm, Bain & Co., where he reported to recent presidential candidate, Mitt Romney.

After years of consulting with Fortune 100 companies, he found gaping holes in their understanding of the global economy. That spurred him to take off and create his own research boutique to address these grievous shortfalls in understanding.

To learn more about Harry S. Dent, Jr, please go to his website at http://www.dentresearch.com/.

In addition to Harry?s many talents, he is also a prolific writer. His most recent tome is The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019 (click here to purchase from Amazon).

There is also The Great Crash Ahead (click here to purchase from Amazon). You can guess the topic. He has also published The Great Boom Ahead (1993) (click here for Amazon),?The Roaring 2000?s (1999) (click here for Amazon).

Purchasing a download of the entire interview for $4.95 is very simple. Just go to the HEDGE FUND RADIO menu tab and click on the drop down menu for RADIO SHOW (click here to go to the page ). Click on the green BUY NOW button and complete the order form. A blue link will appear telling you to ?click here to proceed?. Then click on the small blue box with the question mark inside to download. Hit the PLAY arrow to listen. You can pause, fast forward, or rewind at any time.

The Demographic Cliff

The Great Crash Ahead

The Great Boom Ahead

The Roaring 2000's

Harry S. Dent, Jr.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Harry-S.-Dent-Jr..jpg 267 202 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-08 11:18:212014-04-08 11:18:21Harry S. Dent, Jr. on Hedge Fund Radio
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 7, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 7, 2014
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL SHORT SELLING ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(CHICAGO FRIDAY, MAY 23 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),
(A VERY BAD CHART DAY),
(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (TLT), (TSLA), (AMZN), (NFLX), (FB)
(SHORT SELLING SCHOOL 101),
(SH), (SDS), (PSQ), (DOG), (RWM), (SPXU), (AAPL),
?(VIX), (VXX), (IPO), (MTUM), (SPHB), (HDGE)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Facebook, Inc. (FB)
ProShares Short S&P500 (SH)
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)
ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ)
ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG)
ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM)
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO)
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor (MTUM)
PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB)
AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-07 01:06:062014-04-07 01:06:06April 7, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Very Bad Chart Day

Diary, Newsletter

I spoke to the best traders I know in the market Thursday night, and to a man they said the market looked terrible. Although prices were high, the momentum was totally gone and volume was shrinking.

Worse, these conditions prevail as we head into May, the onset of the traditional ?RISK OFF? season (click here for ?The Hard Numbers Behind Selling in May?).

Best case, it continues to grind sideways in a narrow range. Worst case, our long awaited 10% correction is finally here.

The big ?tell? would be how stocks responded to the Friday nonfarm payroll. If it turned into a ?buy the rumor, sell the news,? or made a marginal new high and then sells off hard, then it would herald the onset of a new correction.

That was exactly what we got.

You knew immediately that things were heading south, even though the Dow opened up $44. The big momentum like Tesla (TSLA), Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), and Amazon (AMZN) rolled over like the Bismarck right out of the gate. Bonds (TLT) also took off like a bat out of hell, not exactly what you want to see when you own stocks.

I spent Thursday night writing up Trade Alerts to sell short the (IWM), the (SPY), and the (QQQ). You only had about 30 minutes when the market waffled indecisively to get these off. As it turned out, I could only get the first two done before the market fell away like a house of cards.

I have already received ecstatic emails from nimble traders who got into the (IWM) August, 2014 $113 puts as low as $3.65 and then saw them soar to $5.25, an instant profit of 44%. This also boosts my year to date performance back to double digits, a welcome development

I have a number of cross hedges going on now in my model portfolio which I should explain, just to show you there is a method to my Madness. The May (SPY) $193-$196 put spread is a short volatility trade that balances out the long volatility and time decay in the (IWM) August $113 puts.

I am long the higher beta (IWM) puts and short the lower beta (SPY) puts. The 35% ?RISK OFF? position I have in the (SPY), (IWM), and the (VXX) will also offset lost profits in my one 10% ?RISK ON? position in the Japanese yen (FXY) put spread. This balancing of multiple risks is what a real live hedge fund trading book looks like.

Fasten your seat belts. This could be the big one.

RUT 4-4-14

COMPQ 4-4-14

SPX 4-4-14

roller_coaster_monksFasten Your Seatbelt, This Could Be the Big One

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/monks.jpg 186 183 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-07 01:04:062014-04-07 01:04:06A Very Bad Chart Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 4, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 4, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(ORLANDO FLORIDA SATURDAY, MAY 17 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON)
(APRIL 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(WHY JIM CHANOS IS WRONG ON CHINA), (FXI), (CYB)
(DRINKS WITH ROBERT REICH)

iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy (CYB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-04 01:07:162014-04-04 01:07:16April 4, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why Jim Chanos is Wrong on China

Diary, Newsletter

Hedge fund titan, Jim Chanos, is well known for his extremely bearish views on China. He says that the cracks are spreading on the fa?ade, real estate sales are falling, and that the economic engine is starting to sputter.

This will be bad news for the rest of us, as China imports 50%-80% of the world?s commodities. Commodity exporting countries will be especially hard hit, like Canada, Australia, and parts of the US. Modern China has only seen a bull market, and he doubts their ability to manage a true crisis.

There is a widespread misperception that the government will step in and provide any bailouts that will be needed. The domestic Chinese banking system has in fact already been bailed out two times. The harsh reality is that while Chinese companies are selling billions of dollars? worth of new stock issues in the US through IPO?s, a privileged elite is getting their money out of the country as rapidly as they can.

Jim says that he already has short positions in the Middle Kingdom that are profitable. There is no way that even a wrinkle in a market of this size is without global implications, and on that point Jim is right.

However, I think that Jim, who confesses to having never visited China, is missing the broader long-term picture here. China has literally been building a Rome a day, the ancient kind, and the modern size every two weeks. In a year, it builds the equivalent of the entire housing stock of Spain, and in 15 years the equivalent for all of Europe.

While a lot of apartment buildings have been constructed, the country is rapidly creating the middle class to fill them. Even allowing for a pull back from its past blistering 11% per annum GDP growth rate to only 7.7%, urban disposable income per person is expected to grow by 2.5 times to $7,500 by 2020.

Over the same time frame, some 160 million are expected to move from the hinterlands to urban areas. Rising standard of livings mean that residential floor space per person will jump from 270 square feet to 369 square feet, still tiny by Western standards. That is a lot of housing demand.

China has already taken steps to head off a housing crisis, unlike the US. Many banks are now demanding cash deposits of 40%, well over the official requirement of 30%. The government is in effect forcing the banks to deleverage before hard times hit. Too bad they didn?t think of that here.

I think China still has several good years ahead of it, and I am going to pile into the stock ETF (FXI) and the Yuan ETF (CYB) as soon as the current bout of malaise selling exhausts itself. The Country?s real challenge arises when its demographic pyramid starts to invert in about five years, the result of a then 35 year old ?one child? policy, when too many single children have to start supporting two retiring parents.

FXI 4-3-14

CYB 4-3-14

CHL 4-3-14

ChinaChina: Not Enough Demand?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/China.jpg 316 474 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-04 01:04:232014-04-04 01:04:23Why Jim Chanos is Wrong on China
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 3, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 3, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY, MAY 14 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),
(MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER?S Q2 VIEWS),
(SPX), (NDX), (XLK), (TLT), (FXB), (FXY), (YCS), (FXA),
?(GLD), (SLV), (SOYB), (CORN), (WEAT), (VIX), (VXX)
(THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS)

S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)
Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Tr (FXB)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Teucrium Soybean (SOYB)
Teucrium Wheat (WEAT)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-03 01:06:562014-04-03 01:06:56April 3, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 2, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 2, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(ABSOLUTELY THE LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY APRIL 4 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(A DAY IN THE LIFE OF THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER),
(SPY), (SPX), (QQQ), (GOOG), (FSLR), (UNG), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE),
(GLD), (GDX), (TSLA), (USO)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
United States Oil (USO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-02 01:05:342014-04-02 01:05:34April 2, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Absolutely the Last Chance to Attend the Friday April 4 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada on Friday, April 4, 2014. Incline Village is about a one-hour drive from the Reno Airport. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $198.

I?ll be arriving at 11:30 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at the premier restaurant in Incline Village, Nevada on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation. The ski season at nearby Diamond Peak usually runs until April 15, so with any luck you my be able to squeeze in a few runs.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

Lake Tahoe View

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Lake-Tahoe-View-e1410283987626.jpg 241 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-02 01:04:342014-04-02 01:04:34Absolutely the Last Chance to Attend the Friday April 4 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Day in the Life of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Diary, Newsletter

Diary Entry for Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Dear Diary,

4:30 PM Monday-the day before- Thought I?d check my Bloomberg to see how the Asian markets were opening. Wow! Japan finally had an up day. It must be fiscal year end window dressing. The VAT tax hike that takes effect tomorrow, from 5% to 8%, certainly has sucked the life out of that market. Nothing like strangling a recovery in the crib.

5:00 PM- Call from one of the top New York hedge funds. They just received a research report predicting that Google was going to $2,000. Should they chase it up here? I said not in your wildest dreams. Google has lead the charge in this market to the upside since September, and will lead the retreat going into the summer. Wait for a bigger dip. Call me old-fashioned, but I?ll buy a PE multiple of 9 versus 30 any day of the week.

Quite honestly, I don?t want to buy any stocks at these lofty altitudes. Shares are looking tired and are in desperate need of a rest. The bull market isn?t over, but needs to catch its breath. It still has to digest last year?s meteoric 30% gain, including dividends.

GOOG 3-31-14

If you look at how San Francisco and Santa Clara real estate prices are going through the roof, with ferocious bidding wars, it is just a matter of time before technology takes over market leadership once again. I said he owed me a nice dinner at Masa at Time Warner Center on Columbus Circle, and we?ll meet up at my June 17 New York strategy luncheon.

Then he told me the real reason for his call. He knew I grew up near Hollywood, had dated several movie stars, and even appeared in one movie as an extra (Francis Ford Coppola?s Apocalypse Now). Perhaps, I had some insights? His firm had put up the money to make film, American Hustle. Is it worth seeing?

I said absolutely, but only if you want to gain insights in 1970?s fashion and music. I cringed when I remembered that some of those clothes are still hanging in the darkest reaches of my closet. Anyone need a pair of size 36 bellbottoms?

American Hustle

6:30 PM- Take kids to see the new animated film, Frozen. Notice how the kid movies are better than the adult movies these days? There are ample double entendres and innuendos to keep the grownups laughing all the way. Looks like Disney (DIS) has finally learned how to make movies again. Steve Jobs? widow has to be happy. She is the largest shareholder in the company, inheriting stock Steve got from selling them Pixar in 2006.

Frozen

9:00 PM- Call from a friend at the People?s Bank of China in Beijing. He wants to know if they missed the top of the Treasury bond market (TLT) last summer, and if they should start unloading their $1 trillion worth of holdings. They have been on a buyer?s strike for the past two years, and have already pared back their position by $100 billion from the peak.

I said take the gift. The 30-year bear market in bonds has already started and this is a rare chance to unload paper close to the highs. Inflation will rear its ugly head once again in the 2020?s, when yields for the ten-year Treasury bond will hit high single digits. That would be a good time to flush out his bigger positions.

Then he asked, did I, by any chance, recommend the film, 12 Years a Slave, which won the Best Picture Oscar this year? It was a huge hit in Beijing, with lines extending for hours. I answered no, only if you want to see people beaten and raped for two hours. Not my idea of a good time. The film, while historically accurate, is a real downer. I was checking my watch towards the end.

However, it will confirm your worst opinions about Americans, which I know you haven?t changed since the Cultural Revolution. Race is still a hot button issue in the US. That?s what the new voting restrictions were all about. This is why this film could only be made by a British firm. (They banned slavery 55 years before we did).

TLT 3-21-14

12 Years a Slave

9:30 PM- Hit the rack and try to catch some shuteye before the next call.

2:00 AM- One of my former staff members at Morgan Stanley calls me from a Private Bank in Geneva to tell me that the Euro is getting the stuffing knocked out of it. Is it time to buy?

I told him that I would rather find broken glass in my oatmeal this morning. We are miles (kilometers) away from a resolution of Europe?s woes. At the very least, they need a new treaty to create a ministry of finance to be run by the Germans. Expect that to take at least five years, if ever. Then, you can think about buying.

In the meantime, I wouldn?t touch the European currency with a ten-foot pole. European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, is delusional if he thinks he can levitate the Euro with just talk. That makes the Euro (FXE) a much better short here than a long.

Then he moved on to the real purpose of his call. He was planning to take his wife out this weekend. Should they go to see The Wolf of Wall Street? Hell no, I said. You don?t want your wife to find out what you really do for a living, do you? Besides, the film drops the ?F? bomb a record 529 times. Definitely not for home consumption.

But certainly go see it alone. I was working on Wall Street when Jordan Belfort and a dozen other firms like them were fleecing customers on a massive scale. We at Morgan Stanley were amazed that they got away with it for so long.

As a foreigner, he will not notice all the Italian working class accents. These poor guys couldn?t have gotten real jobs on Wall Street if their lives depended on it. For some reason, I never got invited to all those broker parties with drugs and hookers. I only heard about it second hand. Am I really that square?

I slammed the phone back on the hook and went back to sleep.

FXE 3-31-14

Wolf of Wall Street

6:00 AM- My website administrator called me in a panic. The store is down. A hacker attack prompted PayPal to suspend my account. Since I am one of their largest customers, I call my account rep and get it reopened. The Chinese should know better than to hack my site. One call to Beijing and I could have them shot. Go hack the National Security Agency instead. I hear it?s a lot easier.

Edward Snowden

7:00 AM- Another call from my website administrator. The website is down. My story on ?Why Gold is Dead? (click the link for the article http://madhedgefundradio.com/why-gold-is-dead/ ) brought a traffic spike that is causing the servers to melt. The gold bugs are going crazy over it. I am burning up the internet.

8:00 AM- I get a call from a leading money manager in London?s Mayfair district. Europe is closing. With gold down $100 in a week, is it time to buy?

Not yet, I said. The panic selling has only just started, and margin clerks everywhere were sharpening their knives. Wait for a capitulation to deliver a false breakdown below $1,200 before jumping in. That?s where I expect emerging market central bank participation to kick in.

And go have a pint of bitter for me at the Pig & Whistle next door, will you. Tell the owner, Nigel, to put it on my running tab. He owes me from the last Manchester United win.

GOLD 3-28-14

He then raved about the terrorism movie, Captain Phillips. What did I think?

I usually don?t like movies where you already know the ending. But it was much better than I expected. Tom Hanks delivers a first class acting job. I said I thought the movie gave the most accurate portrayal of the actual day-to-day operations of Navy Seals on a mission. It certainly has created a new bull market for Somali actors.

Captain Phillips

10:00 AM- Better get to work on today?s letter. I?m already behind the eight ball. I?ve gotta lead with the Tesla (TSLA) story after that great 60 minutes piece last night. Boy, a lot of people sure look at me when I drive that car. Too bad they are mostly guys. But I can?t understand why my passengers keep getting carsick. I better take another look at Ford (F) too. I heard George Soros has taken a 3% stake in the company. Time to double up? The stock could be breaking out here in the wake of the General Motors (GM) crash.

F 3-31-14

1:15 PM- My friend, JR, a senior executive at an oil major, calls from Houston. What the hell was going on with the price of oil (USO)? Three months ago, it was at $91, then he blinked, and it was $105.

Crude certainly got a boost from the Crimea crisis, but that is now fading. The West lost the last Crimean War (in 1856), so why jump into another one? At the end of the day, nobody cares.

I told him that Israeli intelligence thinks there won?t be a war with Iran until the summer at the earliest, if ever. Until then, Texas tea was going to stay in a rough balance, with rising Chinese demand offset by growing American production, thanks to the new fracking technology. It?s not rocketing to $150, nor is it plunging to $30. That is why oil volatility has collapsed.

The range in oil for the past eight months has been tighter than a gnat?s ass, only $15. If you really must have an energy play on, go sell short some natural gas (UNG). A fading winter will run into burgeoning new supply from fracking, almost certainly causing a price collapse.

You might also buy some solar, like First Solar (FSLR). Three more years of Obama followed by eight with President Hillary means government support for alternative energy stretches as far as the eye can see.

He said thanks, and next time I was in town he would buy me a 24-ounce chicken fried steak at Billy Bob?s that spilled over both sides of the plate (2,500 calories). I can?t wait. I?ll let my doctor have the heart attack.

He then told me why he really called. He knew I was a former combat pilot and was acquainted with all those space people at NASA. His buddies down on the ranch had just seen Gravity, streaming it on Netflix (NFLX). Should he bother?

I loved the film, and thought it was incredibly realistic. Somebody had really done their research. It?s a real engineer?s film, so he would like it. Plus, it?s amazing to see how far digital film technology has gotten. These astronauts are the most trained people in the history of civilization, and I certainly sympathize with a pilot trying to manage a crash. I?ve totaled three planes myself. I was careful not to tell him how it ended.

WTIC 3-28-14

Gravity

2:00 PM- Still haven?t started on the letter yet. I have been answering 200 email requests for information about the Trade Alert Service. This always happens whenever I have a hot performance on. The watchers want to become players. With my three year return approaching high of 130%, new subscribers are pouring in.

4:45 PM- Well, I got the letter done, but I?m too late. The web editor has gone to the DMV to register her new Prius, and the backup has gone to the yoga studio. Ouch! 10% sales tax for new cars in Washington State! They must be as broke as California.

5:00 PM- I put on a 60-pound pack and my heavy climbing boots and head out the back door on a ten-mile snowshoe from the shores of Lake Tahoe to the High Sierra ridgeline. It?s snowing heavy, so I donned an extra wool sweater and filled my canteens with boiling water so it wouldn?t freeze. Gotta stay boot camp ready. You never know when Uncle Sam is going to call again. Who cares if I?m 62?

9:00 PM- Back to my screens. Had to put my feet in the tub because my toes froze again. The Euro has broken $1.37 again. Where was I last week? Asleep? Still, I am going to avoid the Euro. It has recently been so trendless that it has killed more traders than a bad tin of caviar. There are better things to do.

10:00 PM- Time to call it a night and break out a bottle of Duckhorn merlot. Jeese, it seems people only wanted to talk about movies today. Are they really trying to tell me something about the market?

Does anybody want my job?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Frozen.jpg 322 500 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-02 01:03:202014-04-02 01:03:20A Day in the Life of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 1, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 1, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY APRIL 25 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(WILL SYNBIO SAVE OR DESTROY THE WORLD?),
(XLV), (XPH), (XBI), (MON), (IBM), (GOOG), (AAPL), (CSCO)

Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)
SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH)
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)
Monsanto Company (MON)
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-01 01:05:542014-04-01 01:05:54April 1, 2014
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