Global Market Comments
February 20, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS),
(CHINA?S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE),
(TRIBUTE TO A GIANT OF JOURNALISM, ROY ESSOYAN)
To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service!
I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you cash out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from Southeast Asia four decades ago. In fact, many firms on Wall Street give veterans applications first priority, because they know they can get millions of dollars worth of training and discipline for free.
I have but one request. No more subscriptions with .mil addresses, please. The Defense Department, the CIA, the NSA, Homeland Security, and the FBI do not look kindly on newsletters entering the military network, even the investment kind. If you think civilian spam filters are tough, watch out for the military kind! And no, I promise that there are no secret messages embedded with the stock tips. ?BUY? really does mean ?BUY.?
If I did not know the higher ups at these agencies, as well as the Joints Chiefs of Staff, I might be bouncing off the walls in a cell at Guantanamo by now. It also helps that many of the mid level officers at these organizations have made a fortune with their meager government retirement funds following my advice. All I can say is that if the Baghdad Stock Exchange ever become liquid, I?m going to own it.
Where would you guess the greatest concentration of readers The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is found? New York? Nope. London? Wrong. Chicago? Not even close. Try a ten mile radius centered on Langley, Virginia, by a large margin. The funny thing is, half of the subscribing names coming in are Russian. I haven?t quite figured that one out yet.
So keep up the good work, and fight the good fight. But please, only subscribe to my letter with personal Gmail or hotmail addresses. That way my life can become a lot more boring. Oh, and by the way, Langley, you?re behind on you bill. Please pay up, pronto, and I don?t want to hear whining about any damn budget cuts!
Semper Fidelis!
I Want My Mad Hedge Fund Trader!
Thanks to China's ?one child only? policy adopted 30 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls. Large scale interference with the natural male:female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers for years, and is constantly generating unintended consequences.
Until early in the last century, starving rural mothers abandoned unwanted female newborns in the hills to be taken away by ?spirits.? Today, pregnant women resort to the modern day equivalent by getting ultrasounds and undergoing abortions when they learn they are carrying girls.
Millions of children are ?little emperors,? spoiled male-only children who have been raised to expect the world to revolve around them. The resulting shortage of women has led to an epidemic of ?bride kidnapping? in surrounding countries. Stealing of male children is widespread in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Mongolia.
The end result has been a barbell shaped demographic curve unlike that seen in any other country. The Beijing government says the program has succeeded in bringing the fertility rate from 3.0 down to 1.8, well below the 2.1 replacement rate. As a result, the Middle Kingdom's population today is only 1.2 billion instead of the 1.6 billion it would have been.
Political scientists have long speculated that an excess of young men would lead to more bellicose foreign policies by the Middle Kingdom. But so far the choice has been for commerce, to the detriment of America's trade balance and Internet security.
In practice, the one child policy has only been applied to those who live in cities or have government jobs. That is about two thirds of the population. On my last trip to China I spent a weekend walking around Shenzhen city parks. The locals doted over their single children, while visitors from the countryside played games with their three, four, or five children. The contrast couldn?t have been more bizarre.
Economists now wonder if the practice will also understate China's long-term growth rate. Parents with boys tend to be bigger savers, so they can help sons with the initial big-ticket items in life, like an education, homes, and even cars. The end game for this policy has to be the Japan disease; a huge population of senior citizens with insufficient numbers of young workers to support them. The markets won't ignore this.
In the latest round of reforms announced by the Chinese government was the demise of the one child policy. But no matter how hard you try, you can?t change the number of people born 30 years ago. The boomerang effects of this policy could last for centuries.
Global Market Comments
February 19, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH)
(NOT YOUR FATHER?S RAILROADS),
(UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP),
(THE WORST TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD)
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
CSX Corp. (CSX)
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
When I rode Amtrak?s California Zephyr service from Chicago to San Francisco last year, we passed countless trains heading west hauling hoppers full of coal for shipment to China.
This year I took the same trip. The coal trains were gone. Instead I saw 100 car long tanker trains transporting crude oil from North Dakota south to the Gulf Coast. I thought, ?There?s got to be a trade here.? It turns out I was right.
Look at the share prices of the major listed railroads, and it is clear they have been chugging right along to produce one of the best performances of 2013. These include Union Pacific (UNP), CSX Corp (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), and Canadian Pacific (CP). In the meantime, coal shares, like Arch Coal (ACI) have been one of the worst performing this year, down 35%.
Those of a certain age, such as myself, remember railroads as one of the great black holes of American industry. During the sixties, they were constantly on strike, always late, and delivered terrible service. A friend of mine taking a passenger train from New Mexico to Los Angeles found his car abandoned on a siding for 24 hours, where he froze and starved until discovered.
New airlines and the trucking industry were eating their lunch. They also hemorrhaged money like crazy. The industry finally hit bottom in 1970, when the then dominant Penn Central Railroad went bankrupt, freight was spun off, and the government owned Amtrak passenger service was created out of the ashes. I know all of this because my late uncle was the treasurer of Penn Central.
Fast forward nearly half a century, and what you find is not your father?s railroad. While no one was looking, they quietly became one of the best run and most efficient industries in America. Unions were tamed, costs slashed, and roads were reorganized and consolidated.
The government provided a major assist with a sweeping deregulation. It became tremendously concentrated, with just four roads dominating the country, down from hundreds a century ago, giving you a great oligopoly play. The quality of management improved dramatically.
Then the business started to catch a few lucky breaks from globalization. The China boom that started in the nineties created enormous demand for shipment inland of manufactured goods from west coast ports. A huge trade also developed moving western coal back out to the Middle Kingdom, which now accounts for 70% of all traffic. The ?fracking? boom is having the same impact on the North/South oil by rail business.
All of this has ushered in a second ?golden age? for the railroad industry. This year, the industry is expected to pour $14 billion into new capital investment. The US Department of Transportation expects gross revenues to rise by 50% to $27.5 billion by 2040. The net of all of this is that freight rates are rising right when costs are falling, sending railroad profitability through the roof.
Union Pacific is investing a breathtaking $3.6 billion to build a gigantic transnational freight terminal in Santa Teresa, NM. It is also spending $500 million building a new bridge across the Mississippi River at Canton, Iowa. Lines everywhere are getting double tracked or upgraded. Mountain tunnels are getting rebored to accommodate double-stacked sea containers.
Indeed, the lines have become so efficient, that overnight couriers, like FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS), are diverting a growing share of their own traffic. Their on time record is better than that of competing truckers, who face delays from traffic jams and crumbling roads, and are still hobbled by antiquated regulation.
I have some firsthand knowledge of this expansion. Every October 1, I volunteer as a docent at the Truckee, California Historical Society on the anniversary of the fateful day in 1846 when the ill-fated Donner Party was snowed in. There, I guide groups of tourists over the same pass my ancestors crossed during the 1849 gold rush. The scars on enormous ancient pines made by passing wagon wheels are still visible.
During 1866-1869, thousands of Chinese laborers blasted a tunnel through a mile of solid granite to complete the Transcontinental Railroad. I can guide my guests through that tunnel today with flashlights because (UNP) moved the line to a new tunnel a mile south to improve the grade. The ceiling is still covered with soot from the old wood and coal-fired engines.
While the rebirth of this industry has been impressive, conditions look like they will get better still. Massive international investment in Mexico (low end manufacturing) and Canada (natural resources) promise to boost rail traffic with the US.
The rapidly accelerating ?onshoring? trend, whereby American companies relocate manufacturing facilities from overseas back home, creates new rail traffic as well. It turns out that factories that produce the biggest and heaviest products are coming home first, all great cargo for railroads.
And who knew? Railroads are also a ?green? play. As Burlington Northern Railroad owner, Warren Buffett, never tires of pointing out, it requires only one gallon of diesel fuel to move a ton of freight 500 miles. That makes it four times more energy efficient than competing trucks.
In fact, many companies are now looking to railroads to reduce their overall carbon footprints. Warren doesn?t need any convincing himself. The $34 billion he invested in the Burlington Northern Railroad two years ago has probably doubled in value since then.
You have probably all figured out by now that I am a serious train nut, beyond the industry?s investment possibilities. My past letters have chronicled adventures riding the Orient Express from London to Venice, and Amtrak from New York to San Francisco. I even once considered buying my own steam railroad; the fabled ?Skunk? train in Mendocino, California, until I figured out that it was a bottomless money pit. Some 50 years of deferred maintenance is not a pretty sight.
It gets worse. Union Pacific still maintains in running condition some of the largest steam engines every built, for historical and public relations purposes. One, the ?Old 844? once steamed its way over the High Sierras to San Francisco on a nostalgia tour.
The 120-ton behemoth was built during WWII to haul heavy loads of steel, ammunition, and armaments to California ports to fight the war against Japan. The 4-8-4-class engine could pull 26 passenger cars at 100 mph.
When the engine passed, I felt the blast of heat of the boiler singe my face. No wonder people love these things! To watch the video, please click here and hit the ?PLAY? arrow in the lower left hand corner. Please excuse the shaky picture. I shot this with one hand, while using my other hand to restrain my over excited kids from running on to the tracks to touch the laboring beast.
Global Market Comments
February 18, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH)
(AN EVENING WITH GOVERNMENT MOTORS), (GM),
(BUSINESS IS BOOMING AT ROUGH TIMES),
(GLD), (SLV), (CCJ), (NLR)
General Motors Company (GM)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Cameco Corporation (CCJ)
Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR)
Long-term readers of this letter are well aware of my antipathy towards General Motors (GM). For decades, the company turned a deaf ear to customer complaints about shoddy, uncompetitive products, arcane management practices, entitled dealers, and a totally inward looking view of the world that was rapidly globalizing. It was like watching a close friend kill himself through chronic alcoholism.
During this time, Japan?s share of the US car market rose from 1% to 42%. The only surprise when the inevitable bankruptcy came was that it took so long. This was traumatic for me personally, since for the first 30 years of my life General Motors was the largest company in the world. Their elegant headquarters building in Detroit was widely viewed as the high temple of capitalism. I was raised to believe that what was good for GM was good for the country. Oops!
I opposed the bailout because it interfered with creative destruction, something America does better than anyone else, and gives us a huge competitive advantage in the international marketplace. Probably 10% of the listed companies in Japan are zombies that should have been killed off 20 years ago. Without GM a large part of the US car industry would have moved to California and gone hybrid or electric.
When an opportunity arose to spend a few hours with the new CEO, Dan Akerson, I gratefully accepted. After all, he wasn?t responsible for past sins, and I thought I might gain some insights into the new GM. Besides, he was a native of the Golden State and a graduate in nuclear engineering from the Naval Academy at Annapolis and the London School of Economics. How bad could he be?
When I shook hands, I remarked that his lapel pin looked like the hood ornament on my dad?s old car, a Buick or Oldsmobile. He noticeably winced. So to give the guy a break, I asked him about the company?s outlook.
It was the best in the 104-year history of the company. It is now the world?s largest car company, with the biggest market share. The 40-mpg Chevy Cruze is the number one selling sub compact in the US. GM competed in no less than 117 countries, and was a leader in the fastest growing emerging market, China.
I asked how a private equity guy from the Carlyle Group was fitting in on the GM board. He responded that all of the Big Three Detroit automakers were being run by ?non-car guys? now, and they generated profits for the first time in 20 years. However, it was not without its culture clashes. When he publicly admitted that he believed in global warming, he was severely chastised by other board members. He wasn?t following the official playbook.
When I started carping about the bailout, he cut me right off at the knees. Liquidation would have been a deathblow for the Midwestern economy, killing 1 million jobs, and saddling the government with $23 billion in pension fund obligations. It also would have deprived the Treasury Department of $135 billion in annual tax revenues. It was inevitable that in the last election year the company became a political punching bag. Akerson said that he was still a Republican, but just.
GM was now selling 1,000 Chevy Volts a month. The cars are so efficient, running off a 16kWh lithium ion battery charge for the first 25-50 miles that many are still driving around with the original tank of gas they were delivered with a year ago. Extreme crash testing by the government and the bad press that followed forced a relaunch of the brand. Despite this, I often get emails from readers saying they love the car.
The summer production halt says more about GM?s more efficient inventory management than it does about the hybrid car. GM?s recent investment in California based Envia Systems should succeed in increasing battery energy densities threefold (click here for the website http://enviasystems.com/announcement/).
However the Volt is just a bridge technology to the Holy Grail, hydrogen fuel cell powered cars, which will start to go mainstream in four years. These cars burn hydrogen, emit water, and cost about $300,000 a unit to produce now. By 2017, GM hopes to make it available as a $30,000 option for the Chevy Aveo.
Another bridge technology will be natural gas powered conventional piston engines. These take advantage of the new glut of this simple molecule and its 85% price discount per BTU compared to gasoline. The company announced a dual gas tank pickup truck that can use either gasoline or compressed gas. Cheap compressors that enable home gas refueling are also on the horizon. Fleet sales will be the initial target.
Massive overcapacity in Europe will continue to be a huge headache for the global industry. There are just too many carmakers there, with Germany, England, Italy, France, and Sweden each carrying multiple manufacturers. Governments would rather bail them out to save jobs and protect entrenched unions than allow market forces to work their magic. GM lost $700 million on its European operations last year, and Akerson doesn?t see that improving now that the continent is clearly moving into recession.
Akerson said that a cultural change had been crucial in the revival of the new GM. Last year, the Feds announced an increase in mileage standards from 25 to 55 mpg by 2025. Instead of lawyering up for a prolonged fight to dilute or eliminate the new rules, as it might have done in the past, it is working with the appropriate agencies to meet these targets.
Finally, I asked Akerson what went through his head when the top job at GM was offered him at the height of the crisis. Were they crazy, insane, delusional, or all the above? He confessed that it offered him the management challenge of a generation and that he had to rise to it.
Spoken like a true Annapolis man.
Shifting GM from This?.
To This?.
And This
Following Howard Ruff for the last 40 years has always been eye opening, if not entertaining. The irascible Mormon is the publisher of Ruff Times, one of the oldest investment letters in the business, and one of the original worshipers of hard assets.
Ruff says that any investment denominated in dollars is a mistake, which is in a long term down trend, along with all paper assets. Silver (SLV) is his first choice, which will outperform gold, and eventually top $100 from the current $22. His personal target for the barbarous relic (GLD) is $2,300, but that might prove conservative.
With the Chinese building 100 nuclear power plants over the next ten years, uranium (CCJ), (NLR) has great potential. Equities may never come back from their lost decade. Don?t buy ETF?s because they are just another form of paper, and may not actually own the gold or silver they claim. The government is laying the foundation for a massive inflation, which will begin soon.
Howard has long been considered a card-carrying member of the lunatic fringe of the investment world, sticking with hard assets throughout their 20 year bear market during the eighties and nineties, and annually predicting the demise of the federal government.
Maybe it?s a case of a broken clock being right twice a day, but in recent years I find myself agreeing with Howard more and more. Whether that means I?m now a lunatic too, only time will tell.
Global Market Comments
February 14, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH),
(DECODING THE GREEBACK),
(THE FUSION IN YOUR FUTURE),
(WHAT ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION?)
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