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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 17, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 17, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SURGES AHEAD WITH A 5.78% 2014 PROFIT),
(SPY), (TLT), (XLK), (XLF), (XLE), (AAPL), (SFTBY), (FXY),
(AT&T IS DILAING A WRONG NUMBER),
(T), (VZ), (NFLX), (AMZN)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
AT&T, Inc. (T)
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-17 01:05:582014-01-17 01:05:58January 17, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Surges Ahead With a 5.73% January Profit

Diary, Newsletter

The red hot performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service has maintained its blistering pace from last year, picking up another 5.73% profit in the first two trading weeks of 2014. The S&P 500 was down during the same period. Since the beginning of 2013, I am up 73.23%.

2013 closed with a total return for followers of 67.45%. Including both open and closed trades, all nine of the Trade Alerts issued so far this year were profitable, a success rate of 100%.

The three-year return is now an eye popping 128.3%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 35%. That brings my averaged annualized return up to 41.6%.

This has been the profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was launched in 2010. It all is a matter of the harder I work, the luckier I get.

The hot streak continues. It seems like I can do no wrong, but am avoiding walking under ladders, breaking mirrors, and trading on Friday the 13th.

I held on to every risk on position during the two-week December correction, fully expecting the pause to become the springboard for a new run to all time highs by year-end. That is exactly what happened in the wake of the Federal Reserve?s decision to taper its quantitative easing program by only $10 billion a month, mere sofa change given the size of our bond market.

The rally then came to a dead stop, once the New Year?s celebrations were over. The disappointing December nonfarm payroll of 74,000 didn?t help. But I held on to every ?RISK ON? position. That turned out to be the perfect thing to do.

In the rapid surge that followed this week, I took profits in the Financials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), thanks to the leadership of the big banks. Ditto for my long position in the S&P 500 (SPY).

I also did well with my bets on the Technology Select Sector ETF (XLK). I benefited from a huge run in Apple (AAPL), its deal with China Mobile (CHL) assuring that my call options expired at their maximum value.

My assumption that Obamacare would herald a new golden age for the health care industry proved dead on, with my long in Gilead Sciences (GILD), racing to new highs. My short in the Japanese yen (FXY) provided yet another paycheck, like the ever faithful rich uncle.

Progress in the Geneva peace talks with Iran crush oil and robbed me of some of my profits in my Energy Sector Select SPDR ETF (XLE), but I still closed out positive. I even made a small amount of money in my Treasury bond short, despite a ferocious five point rally against me.

I am now 70% in cash, awaiting better entry points in the market on which I can pounce. I am still lugging a long in Softbank (SFTBY) shares at cost, awaiting the Alibaba IPO. I also slapped on a short position I AT&T (T) yesterday, a favorite hedge fund target, capitalizing on an ever weakening cash flow position in the company.

My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, has also been coining it. Since April, his own performance numbers have just come back from the auditors, revealing that he is up a staggering 374%. That is just for an eight month year!

The coming winter promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere in 2014.

The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy. Please join me on the gravy train. You will never get a better chance than this to make money for your personal account.

Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011, 14.87% in 2012, and 67.45% in 2013.

The service includes my Trade Alert Service and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars.? Upgrade to?Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO?and you will also receive Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service.

To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? box on the right, and click on the blue ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.

Trade Alert Performance

John Thomas 1962A High Sierra Pass in 1962

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-17 01:04:312014-01-17 01:04:31Mad Hedge Fund Trader Surges Ahead With a 5.73% January Profit
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 16, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 16, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(CASHING IN ON APPLE), (AAPL)
(BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND),
(OIL ISN?T WHAT IT USED TO BE),
(USO), (DIG), (DUG)

United States Oil (USO)
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG)
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-16 01:06:372014-01-16 01:06:37January 16, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 15, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 15, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(INVESTORS WILL WIN THE ETF PRICE WAR),
(BIDDING FOR THE STARS), (SPX), (INDU),
(THE DEATH OF THE MUTUAL FUND),
(TESTIMONIAL)

S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (INDU)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-15 01:07:302014-01-15 01:07:30January 15, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Death of the Mutual Fund

Diary, Newsletter

ETF?s are much more attractive than mutual fund competitors, with their notoriously bloated expenses and spendthrift marketing costs. You can?t miss those glitzy, overproduced, big budget ads on TV for a multitude of mutual fund families. You know, the ones with the senior couple holding hands walking down the beach into the sunset, the raging bulls, etc.? You are the sucker who is paying for these. Sometimes I confuse them for Viagra commercials.

I once did a comprehensive audit on a mutual fund, and a blacker hole you never saw. There were so many conflicts of interest it would have done Bernie Madoff proud. Any trainee assistant trader can tell you that more than 90% of all mutual fund managers reliably underperform the indexes, some grotesquely so.? Published performance is bogus, they show a huge survivor bias, not including the hundreds of mutual funds that close each year. And there?s always that surprise tax bill at the end of the year.

If there was ever an industry crying out for a fundamental restructuring, consolidation, price competition, and ultimately a whopping great downsizing, it is the US mutual fund industry. ETF?s may be the accelerant that ignited this epochal sea change, with the number of mutual funds recently having shrunk from 10,000 to 8,000. It?s still early days, with ETF?s only accounting for 5-6% of trading volume, even though they have been around for a decade.

Downsizing posterThe Mutual Fund?s Days Are Numbered

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Downsizing-poster.jpg 271 339 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-15 01:04:432014-01-15 01:04:43The Death of the Mutual Fund
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 14, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 14, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH),
(WHY I?M KEEPING MY BOND SHORTS),
(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD), (JNK), (HYG), (LINE), (ITB),
(TESTIMONIAL)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
iShares US Home Construction (ITB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-14 01:06:242014-01-14 01:06:24January 14, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Thursday, February 20 Melbourne, Australia Lunch Invitation

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Melbourne, Australia on Thursday, February 20, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I also hope to provide some insight into America?s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $209.

I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a downtown hotel the details of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

 

Melbourne, AU

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Melbourne-AU.jpg 331 469 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-14 01:05:502014-01-14 01:05:50Thursday, February 20 Melbourne, Australia Lunch Invitation
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 13, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 13, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH),
(AMERCIA?S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE AND YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-13 01:05:432014-01-13 01:05:43January 13, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 10, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 10, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14 SYDNEY AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH),
(A SPECIAL NOTE ON EXERCISED JANUARY OPTIONS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-10 01:05:062014-01-10 01:05:06January 10, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Special Note on Exercised January Options

Diary, Newsletter

There are only 5 trading days left until the equity option expiration on January 17. My short dated January expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all of these positions quickly turning profitable. During the two-week December holidays when markets fell asleep, time decay assured that we made money almost every day, and closed us on the year at an all time high.

As a result, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s model trade portfolio has a ton of remaining positions that are deep in-the-money that expire that day. So, it is important that we tread carefully to get the full benefit.

I am cautious about automatically rolling positions into February and March, as I have done for the last several months, because markets are all vastly over expended. This is my way of cutting back risk at interim market tops.

I received a few emails from readers whose option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for advice on how best to proceed. So, here we go.

The options traded on US exchanges and referred to in my Trade Alerts are American style, meaning that they can be exercised at any time by the owner. This is in contrast to European style options, which can only be exercised on the expiration day.

The call option spreads that I have been recommending for the past year are composed of a deep out-of-the-money long strike price plus a short portion at a near money strike price.

When stocks have high dividends, there is a chance that the near money option you are short gets exercised against you by the owner. This requires you to deliver the stock equivalent of the option you are short, plus any quarterly dividends that are due. Don?t worry, because your long position perfectly hedges you against this possibility.

You usually get notice of this assignment in an email after the close. You then need to email or call your broker back immediately informing him that you want to exercise your remaining long option position to meet your assigned short position.

This is a gift, as it means that you can realize the entire maximum theoretical profit of the position without having to take the risk of running it all the way into expiration. You can either keep the cash, or pile on another sort dated option spread position and make even more money.

This should completely close out your position and leave you with a nice profit. This is not an automatic process and requires action on your part!

Assignments are made on a random basis by an exchange computer, and can happen any day. Exercise means the owner of the option that you are short completely loses all of the premium on his call.

Dividends have to be pretty high to make such a move economic, usually at least over 3% on an annual rate. But these days, markets are so efficient that traders, or their machines, will exercise options for a single penny profit.

Surprise assignments create a risk for option spread owners in a couple of ways. If you don?t check your email every day after the close, you might not be aware that you have been assigned. Alternatively, such emails sometimes get lost, or hung up in local servers or spam filters, which occasionally happens to readers of my own letter.

Then, you are left with the long side deep out-of-the-money call alone, which will have a substantially higher margin requirement. This is equivalent to going outright long the stock in large size.

This is a totally unhedged position now, and suddenly, you are playing a totally different game. If the stock then rises, you could be in for a windfall profit. But if it falls, you could take a big hit. Better to completely avoid this situation at all cost and not take the chance. You are probably not set up to do this type of trading.

If you don?t have the cash in your account to cover this, you could get a margin call. If you ignore this call as well, your broker will close out your position at market without your permission.

It could produce some disconcerting communications from your broker. They generally hate issuing margin calls, and could well close your account if it is too small to bother with, as they create regulatory issues.

In order to get belt and braces coverage on this issue, it is best to call your broker and find out exactly what are their assignment policies and procedures. Believe it or not, some are still in the Stone Age, and have yet to automate the assignment process or give notice by email. An ounce of prevention could be worth a pound of cure here. You can?t believe how irresponsible some of these people can be.

Consider all this a cost of doing business, or a frictional execution cost. In-the-money options are still a great strategy. But you should be aware of all the ins and outs to get the most benefit.
Good Luck and Good Trading
John Thomas

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-2

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-10 01:03:082014-01-10 01:03:08A Special Note on Exercised January Options
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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