1) If you want to know who is going to win the international investment sweepstakes, take a look at the table of 2010 consensus GDP Growth Estimates below. The ranking, prepared by the good folks at the Bespoke Investment Group, is very crowded at the top with countries I have been banging the table about for the last year. The odds on favorite is China (FXI), coming in at a breathtaking 9.4% forecast. The truly amazing thing is that China continues delivering blistering growth, while having the fourth largest GDP in the world ($4.3 trillion), after the EC ($18.4 trillion), the US ($14.4 trillion), and Japan ($4.9 trillion). That?s why it is my lead canary in the coal mine for the global risk appetite, which at the moment is expanding. Next comes Indonesia (IDX), an emerging market oil and LNG exporter, and one of the top performing stock markets last year, boasting a 5.55% forecast. Brazil (EWZ), the country that does everything right and will host the 2016 Olympics (look at the astronomical move China?s market delivered in the eight year run up to their Olympics), could bring in a 4.75% rate. Hong Kong (EWH) comes in at 4.45%, no doubt benefiting from proximity to the Middle Kingdom. South Korea (EWY) is expected to bring in a 3.95% growth rate. The US (SPX) growth forecast is at 2.6%, very close to my own. Skip Spain, which is enduring a subprime induced real estate meltdown that makes ours look like a walk in the park, and suffers the only negative GDP forecast for 2010. It is no revelation that you should be shoveling money into high growth countries, and passing on the also rans, like the US.

2) I have worshipped legendary hedge fund manager, Bill Fleckenstein, as the God that he is for decades. So I thought it was time to catch up with the noted bear to get his take on the New Year. The sky high expectations for 2010 now endemic will disappoint, with the year ending substantially lower than we are now.?? In a stroke of genius, Fleck, as he is know to his friends, closed his short only fund in March ahead of the coming onslaught of stimulus he saw. When the Dow popped above 10,000, Fleck took out his ?Dow 10,000? hat and symbolically placed it on top of the six foot tall stuffed grizzly he keeps in his office. The same idiots who sold the bottom in March are now buying the top, and some fantastic short selling opportunities are setting up. He is in no rush, though, as it is tough to short against zero interest rates. This could be the year when serious money is once again made on the short side. His favorite targets will be technology companies, where double ordering of components is now rampant, as Kool-Aid drinking managers rush to replenish depleted inventories. Research in Motion (RIMM) is a train wreck where he already has a big short position. Retailers like high end department stores with weak balance sheets, such as Nordstrom (JWN), are also in his cross hairs, as are restaurant chains like IHOP (DIN). ?Anything with a bad balance sheet will get clubbed,? said Bill, with the subtlety of a 20 pound sledge hammer. Big banks are one big fantasy in a world of make believe, but are really more of a macro call here. With the government changing the rules every day, he?ll stay away. Long Treasury bonds are a bubble waiting to burst, and the TBT is a home run staring you in the face. He can understand why the low end in residential real estate is holding up, since the government is offering a tax free bribe of $8,000 to all comers. But the high end is in serious trouble, and it is raining McMansions in tony neighborhoods.?? The nightmare won?t end until the banks foreclose on everything and then puke it all out, putting in the real bottom. This could be a long time off. He doesn?t see any way commercial real estate can avoid disaster. Commercial REITS are a screaming sell, which are falling off a cliff but haven?t felt any pain because they haven?t hit bottom yet. The current stock market bubble could continue for a few months, with Congress passing more stimulus projects to save their own skins in November. The bell will ring that the top is in when foreigners take away our printing presses by boycotting Treasury auctions, sending stocks bonds, and the buck into a simultaneous tailspin. That will be the time to get aggressive. What Fleck does like is gold and silver. To meet the big increase in demand, either production or prices have to go up, and he votes for the latter. Fleck congenitally despises all fiat currencies, but hold a gun to his head and he?ll tell you to buy the Canadian dollar (FCX), where a wealth of energy, metal, and food exports will enable the looney to outperform the others. Buy wheat. Traders were transfixed by last year?s huge American crop, when in reality, 40% of the wheat producing areas of the world are suffering prolonged droughts, and $8/bushel is not out of the question. Heavy autumn rains caused much of that to rot in the field, and now a horrific winter auguring for even higher prices.
For more on Fleck?s views, go to his insightful and informative blog called the ?Daily Rap? by clicking here , which is literally worth its weight in gold. You can also catch Fleck?s weekly view at MSN by clicking here . To listen to my interview with Fleck in its entirety, where he offers a wealth of trading tips and insights please go to Hedge Fund Radio by clicking here .

3) My guest on Hedge Fund Radio this week will be Tom Lydon, editor and publisher of ETF Trends, the go-to website for all things about the ?exchange traded fund,? or ETF industry. Tom is also president of Global Trends Investments, an investment advisory firm specializing in high-net worth individuals. Tom has been involved in money management for more than 25 years. He began his career with Fidelity Investments,?? and was a founding member of Charles Schwab?s Institutional Advisory Board. Tom is the author of two books, The ETF Trend Following Playbook, and iMoney: Profitable Exchange-Traded Fund Strategies for Every Investor. You can learn more about Tom by visiting his website http://www.etftrends.com/ . Hedge Fund Radio is broadcast every Saturday morning at 12:00 pm Eastern time, 11:00 am Central time, 9:00 am Pacific Coast Time, and 5:00 pm Greenwich Mean Time. For the online link to the live show, please go to www.bizradio.com or click here , click on ?Listen Live!?, and click on ?Houston 1110 AM KTEK.??? For archives of past Hedge Fund Radio shows, please go to my website by clicking here .

1) You?d think with the spectacular performance I was fortunate to bring in last year, I would have new investors pouring in over the transom, bombarding me with requests for offering documents, and asking for presentations to investment committees. The sad truth is that I?m pouring over my list of limited partners, trying to decide who to keep and who to dump. The diplomatic, patient ones who took me out to lunch at Gary Danko?s, invited me for a day on San Francisco Bay in their mega yachts, and went on extended vacations when the markets turned ugly, are in. The others who made law suit noises when I had one down month, sicced an army of due diligence consultants on me, and even hinted at withdrawals, are history. Keeping my life simple by limiting investors to a coterie of buddies who love me, come hell or high water, is a consideration. But my main concern is that the House is certain to pass legislation this year forcing hedge fund managers with more than $150 million in assets under management to register with the SEC. No, I?m not worried about a surprise visit from the federal agency, certain that my own accounts and reporting are accurate down to the last farthing. After all, SEC registration didn?t clip Bernie Madoff?s wings, or stop him from stealing $65 billion from clients, despite multiple canaries loudly singing that something was rotten in Denmark. For me, it?s just a cost issue, as the continuous filing and inspection requirements and legal fees can run into millions of dollars. Why bother? I?d much rather pass this savings on to my clients. And why become a witch, just as the Salem witch trials are starting? The harsh reality is that hedge fund managers are being scapegoated and demonized for the financial crisis, ignoring the fact that no hedge fund was bailed out, took any TARP money, or threatened any systemic risk. The funds that went under took a few wealthy limited partners down with the ship, as they so richly deserved when they didn?t understand the strategies, skipped the due diligence, and were simply trying to buy last year?s track record. If the government has to regulate, it would make much more sense to do so with the top one third of funds that control 95% of the industry assets and can afford it. But sense never seemed to be a prerequisite for legislation coming out of Washington.

2) Deal of the Week. I was blown away when I heard that Korea Electric Power won the contract to build four giant 1.4 megawatt electric power plants in the United Arab Emirates for $20.4 billion. The announcement was a thumb in the eye for the French, whose EPR 1600MW reactor was thought to be the hands down winner. No doubt some old fashioned incentives were in play, but the harsh reality is that the KEPCO bid was thought to undercut competitors by as much as 50%. My only regret about this deal is that I will no longer be able to fly my Cessna down a long uninterrupted stretch of the Emirates coast, a restricted area almost certainly about to pop up on?? my navigation chart. The deal speaks volumes about the direction the global economy is taking. In one fell swoop, South Korea leveraged its low labor cost to take a great leap up the international value chain, using what is basically a simply technology. What is a nuclear power plant, but a fancy way to boil water? It reveals some clever long term strategic thinking is going on in the Emirates, which is expected to run out of oil well before the other Gulf kingdoms. You can forget all the platitudes the Arabs were mouthing over environmental concerns. Why burn this valuable resource locally for nothing, when you can sell it to idiotic, short sighted Americans for $82/barrel? Worst of all, this is a high value added?? industry that America once owned,?? and just plain gave away, because of irrational environmental fears. Bottom line: South Korea takes a quantum leap ahead in the race for global competitiveness, while the US falls further to the back in the dust. Better take another look at my favorite nuclear plays, Cameco (CCJ), and the Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR). And while you?re at it, revisit the South Korea ETF (EWY). And those who don?t see this as a life or death contest for economic survival that we can no longer take for granted better get their heads out of the sand.

3) For an iconoclastic, myth shattering, eye opening view of the true competitive threat posed by Asia, read the piece in? Foreign Policy magazine by Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP only at $5,800, compared to $48,000 in the US. We are simply moving from a unipolar to a multipolar world. China is not going to dominate the world, or even Asia, where there is a long history of regional rivalries and wars. China can?t even control China, where recessions lead to revolutions, and 30% of the country, Tibet and the Uighurs, want to secede. All of Asia?s progress to date has been built on selling to the US market. Take us out, and they?re nowhere. With enormous resource, environmental, and demographic challenges constraining growth, Asia is not replacing the US anytime soon. There is no miracle form of Asian capitalism; impoverished, younger populations are simply forced to save more because there is no social safety net. Ever heard of a Chinese unemployment office? Nor are benevolent dictatorships the answer, with the despots in Burma, Cambodia, North Korea, and Laos thoroughly trashing their countries. The press often touts the 600,000 engineers that China graduates, joined by 350,000 in India. In fact, 90% of these are only educated to a trade school standard. Asia only has one world class school, the University of Tokyo. As much as we despise ourselves and wallow in our failures, Asians see us as a bright, shining example for the world. After all, it was our open trade policies and innovation that lifted them out of poverty and destitution. Walk the streets of China, as I have done for nearly four decades, and you feel this. To read the story in its entirety, click here . I think I?ll reread it next time I think about doubling up my FXI and EEM positions.

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1) OK guys. I get the message. Yesterday?s letter elicited no less than 100 out-of-office replies. So I?m going to take the hint and disappear for a few days. It?s two days until Christmas, and I haven?t even put my outside lights up yet. I?ll be doing my research with my little kids while watching the Princess and the Frog, and with my older kids while viewing Avatar.? The mandarin oranges are ripe and due for picking, the raccoons have broken a hole through the back fence, and there?s a load of firewood to chop and stack. I guess I?ll take my Lionel train set out, the same steel cast one I played with myself 50 years ago, and see if I can interest my girls. I hope you all enjoy your Christmas festivities, where ever you are in the world. At last count, this letter was being read in 100 countries. My next letter will be sent on December 28, and I?ll be putting out an annual asset allocation review on January 4. Until then, please enjoy the hard hitting, one on one, tell all interview with Santa Claus I conducted just yesterday.

2) I managed to catch up with my old friend, Santa Claus, the other day, before he took off on his global gift giving rounds. I have had a rocky relationship with old Saint Nick over the years, usually getting coal or potatoes in my stocking, as one who lives a feckless life might expect. But one year I found a Mercedes S600 V-12 under the tree! I ended up giving it away because I didn?t like the cup holders, but hey, it was a nice thought! Things are not good at the North Pole. The cost of the software upgrade needed to switch from children?s handwritten letters to email has been a killer. And what the hell is Twitter? The First National Bank of the North Pole won?t let him roll over his debt because snow appraisals aren?t coming in like they used to. Labor costs are rocketing. Elves used to work for a few pieces of candy cane a day, but no more. Now they want black snowmobiles with chrome wheels, big screen TV?s, and Blue Ray HD players. There are rumors of a strike over health care costs, which are bleeding him snow white. The Amalgamated Confederation of Elves must be the only union that gets Viagra with their benefits, besides the United Auto Workers. And now they want free mistletoe, to boot! He?s going to have to skip the unfortunate children of Afghanistan and Iraq again because Obama?s budget cuts won?t allow the US Air Force to provide needed fighter cover. The price of reindeer food is going through the roof, thanks to Chinese hoarding, and Donner and Blitzen are down with the swine flu. Rising costs, lower revenues, and an unruly workforce are not a good business model. Since the government forced that TARP money down his throat, the green eye shades from the Treasury have been camping out in accounting. To top it all, compliance is telling him he?s being investigated for backdated stock options in Santa Claus Inc. All this while the debate rages on over whether he even exists. Tell that to the SEC! Coming on top of all the shareholder carping about his ten figure compensation package, and unlimited use of the corporate sleigh, he needs this like a hole in his head! To be honest, he would have retired by now if he had not invested so much of his savings with Bernie Madoff. Sure, it?s a brave new world out there, but no one ever said being Santa Claus was easy.

1) Those of you counting on getting your old job back on the assembly line in Detroit better look at the eight year jobs forecast published today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The table shows that 4.19 million jobs will be gained in the US in professional and business services, followed by 4 million health care and social assistance jobs, while 1.2 million will be lost in manufacturing. This is great news for website designers, Internet entrepreneurs, and registered nurses in California, but grim tidings for traditional metal bashers in the rust belt manufacturing states like Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The real challenge for we aged advise givers is that probably half of these new service jobs don't even exist yet, and if they can be described, it is only in a science fiction novel. After all, who heard of a webmaster 40 years ago? Where are these jobs going? You guessed it, China, and other lower waged, upstream manufacturing countries like Vietnam, where the Middle Kingdom is increasingly doing its own offshoring. These forecasts assume that Americans can continue to claw their way up the value chain in the global economy, and not get stuck along the way, as Japan has been since the nineties. China can have all the $20 a day jobs it wants. But if China is able to move up the value chain faster than it has, as it clearly aspires to do, then America is in for even harder times. I'll be hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. Keep taking those Mandarin lessons, with some Vietnamese thrown in for good measure.

2) The New York Times did an excellent update on China's incredibly ambitious nuclear program last week (click here for the full story). The Middle Kingdom currently has 11 operational plants generating 11 gigawatts accounting for 2.3% of the country's power. It plans to add ten a year for the next decade, taking them up to 70 Gigawatts by 2020, and a staggering 400 gigawatts by 2050. That's nearly the total power generated in China today. This will also make China the world's largest consumer of yellow cake (U3H8) for fuel. Canadian, American, and Australian uranium miners please take note. The goal is to sate the country's insatiable demand for more electricity, as well as making a major dent in new greenhouse gases contributing to global warming. The China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group in the Southern part of the country is using imported French designs with proven track records. But the China National Nuclear Corporation in the North is using riskier Russian designs, and its president was recently arrested on corruption charges (see below). One wonders if these plants will perform as badly as the country's poorly constructed school buildings when an earthquake hits. As nuclear plants are sited next to major cities, an accident could make Chernobyl look like a cake walk.

3) Why don't we try Chinese style securities regulation? Former stock trader, Yang Yanming, was executed by lethal injection last week for embezzling $9.52 million from Galaxy Securities during 1997 to 2003. The move was part of a broader effort by the Mandarins in Beijing to crack down on rampant corruption in the securities industry. Yanming never revealed where the money went, according to the Beijing Evenings News, one of my daily reads. SEC take note. If we adopted similar enforcement measures here in the US, we'd save the $65,000 a year it costs to lock up miscreants like Bernie Madoff in high security facilities. With both state and federal prosecutors now on a holy war against the securities and real estate industries, the combined savings could be huge. Some $80 billion will be spent incarcerating America's 3 million prisoners this year. Still, the more people they execute in the Middle Kingdom, about 10,000 this year, the more they remain the same. Great for the human organ business, but not so good for white collar crime prevention.