Sitting at my lakefront estate at Lake Tahoe?s Incline Village, I began to cogitate on what my trading portfolio for 2014 should look like. Then I thought, ?Why wait?? Better to get the message out now than wait two and a half more months. The entry point for risk assets is better now than it will be early next year. So let?s get the lead out and start posting those ideas.
Which brings me to an investment approach known as the ?Dogs of the Dow.? This has traders seeking out the worst performers of the year and buying them in the hope that they will do better next year.
There is no to rocket science behind this. But I know that statistically it works out pretty well over time, assuming that you didn?t start buying the Japanese stock market after it crashed in 1990, and then kept averaging down every year for two more decades. I know people who did this. They?re now working as baristas at Starbucks (great benefits plan!).
One of the best retirement strategies is to discern major long-term trends, and then buy those assets in the off years. I know that George Soros, Warren Buffet, and Stanley Druckenmiller have parlayed this approach into multi billion dollar personal fortunes. If it works for them, then it should work for you as well. ?Dogs of the Dow? can fit into this style nicely.
One doesn?t have to look far to find this years canine?s. Global warming failed to show this year, so vast overplanting has produced the largest crops in history, crushing prices. The China slowdown knocked the stuffing out of a broad range of base metals and other hard assets. Finally, gold didn?t turn out to be such a safe haven after all, and is plummeting to new multi year lows as we speak.
Long time readers (yes, there are a lot of you by now) are well aware of my positive view of agriculture products. The world is producing people faster than the food to feed them. The global population is expected to soar from 7 billion to 9 billion over the next 36 years. The highest population growth will be in parts of the world that are unable to feed themselves today, like the Middle East, and must rely precariously on imports. What do you think the ?Arab Spring? is really all about?
Having suffered through a real famine in China during the Cultural Revolution in the early 1970?s, I can personally tell you that there are no substitutes for food. All you need is a spate of bad weather like we had in 2012, and this sector can double very quickly. For more on the fundamental case for food, please click here for ?Is Food the New Distressed Asset?.
Fortunately, there are now a wealth of ETF?s you can buy to profit from this impending shortage. The PowerShares DB Multisector Commodity Trust Agriculture Fund (DBA) invests in the futures contracts of a broad range of commodity foods. The iPath Dow Jones-AIG Grains Total Return ETN (JJG) is similar, but with a much higher concentration in the gains.
Perhaps the best way to participate is through the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO). This buys the shares of major food related companies, thus getting you the opportunities to cash in on multiple expansions and dividend payments, while missing out on the contango that can plague futures based ETF?s.
The other great kennel for poorly performing shares this year has been the victims of the China slowdown, which now appears to be gradually coming to an end. Base metals, coal, aluminum or anything else you need to supply this economic giant saw their shares pummeled during the first half of the year.
Now that the Middle Kingdom is on the mend, we are spoiled for choice with laggard plays. The SPDR S&P Metal and Mining ETF (XME) is one pick. So is the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB). Both of these look like they have successfully engineered turnarounds on the charts.
What about that third dog of the Dow, gold? I am afraid it is going to have to stay in the doghouse. We have just seen the best case scenario imaginable for the barbarous relic unfold, total gridlock in Washington and an imminent default on Treasury securities. The yellow metal was supposed to go to the moon if this Armageddon scenario ever occurred. It collapsed instead. Failure to positively respond here makes me want to walk away as briskly as possible.
There is obviously a lot wrong with gold now. But that will be a piece for another day. It is time for my daily hike, and there is a snow capped 11,000 foot peak in my backyard begging for my attention.
Which One to Pick?
