I just finished a 48-hour nonstop slog trying to figure out the trading and investment consequences of The New World Order, and then to get the message out to my subscribers.
So, I am taking a hard earned day off today.?
It is Veterans Day, and I?ll be putting on my faded Marine Corp fatigues, with gold railroad track bars on my shoulders, and leading the hometown parade. So, I thought it would be a good day to tell you the story of my Uncle Mitch.
Since job prospects for high school graduates in rural Pennsylvania in 1936 were poor, Mitch walked 200 miles to the nearest Marine Corp recruiting station in Baltimore.
After basic training, he spent five years rotating between duty in China and the Philippines, manning the fabled gunboats up the Yangtze River.
When WWII broke out, he was a seasoned sergeant in charge of a machine gun platoon. That put him with the seventh regiment of the First Marine division at Guadalcanal in October, 1942.
When the Japanese counterattacked, Mitch was put in charge of four Browning .30 caliber water-cooled machine guns and 33 men, dug in at trenches on a ridge above Henderson Field.
The Japanese launched massive waves of suicide attackers in a pouring tropical rainstorm all night long, frequently breaking through the line and engaging in fierce hand-to-hand combat.
If the position fell, the flank would have been broken, leading to a loss of the airfield, and possibly the entire battle. WWII would have lasted two more years.
After the first hour, all of Mitch's men were either dead or severely wounded, shot or slashed with samurai swords.
So Mitch fired one gun until it was empty, then scurried over to the next, and then the next. In between human waves, he ran back and reloaded all the guns.
To more easily pitch hand grenades, he cut the arms off his herringbone fatigues. When the Japanese launched their final assault, and then retreated, he picked up a 40-pound Browning and ran down the hill after them, firing all the way, and burning all the skin off his left forearm.
Mitch's commanding officer, Col. Herman H. Hanneken, heard the guns firing all night from the field below.
He was shocked when he visited the position the next morning, finding Mitch alone in front of a twisted sea of 1,000 Japanese bodies, not a scratch on him.
Mitch was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor in Australia a few months later.
?
Henderson?s Ridge in 1942
After the war, Mitch, now a colonel, was handed the plum of all Marine Corp jobs, acting as the liaison officer with Hollywood.
?
He provided the planes, ships, and beaches needed to make the great classic war films. He got to know stars like John Wayne, Lee Marvin, and yes, even Elvis Presley.?
The iconic fictional hero in the 1949 film, Sands of Iwo Jima, Sergeant John M. Striker, was modeled after Mitch.
Tradition dictated that all military officers salute Mitch, even five star generals, and he was given a seat to attend every presidential inauguration from FDR on.
?
Pacific countries issued stamps with his image, and Mattel sold a special GI Joe in his likeness.?
When Mitch got older and infirm, I used my captain's rank to escort him on diplomatic missions overseas to attend important events, like the 40th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy.
Whenever Mitch was in town, he would join me for lunch with some of my clients with a history bent, and a more humble and self-effacing guy you never met.
Mitch passed away in 2003 while he was working as a technical consultant for the pre-production of the HBO series, The Pacific.
?
The funeral in Riverside, California was marked by an eagle continuously circling overhead which, according to the Indian shaman present, only occurs at the services for great warriors.
When I get back from the parade, I'll take out the samurai sword Mitch captured on that fateful day, a 1692 Muneshige, the hilt still scarred with 30-caliber slugs, and give it a ritual polishing in sesame oil and powdered deer horn, as samurai have done for millennia.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Medal-of-Honor.jpg463342Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-11 01:06:342016-11-11 01:06:34A Tribute to a True Veteran
I first spoke to Steve Wozniak via HAM radio when I was 12 and he was the 14-year-old president of the Homestead High School Radio Club in Cupertino, California.
With seven children, my dad was pretty stingy with allowance money. But when it came to electronic parts, I had an unlimited budget, as that is where he saw the future.
So while other kids collected baseball cards, I stocked up on tubes, resistors, capacitors, and rheostats. This was back when you could buy WWII surplus parts from Radio Shack for pennies a pound.
Then the transistor came out, and building projects, like simple computers programmed with basic '1's' and '0's' suddenly became possible.
By junior high school, I had gained my radio license, learning Morse code at the required five words per minute, and a path opened that eventually led me to Woz.
Whenever I had a design problem, Woz always had a solution. He seemed to know everything about electronics.
I planned to attend De Anza College in the San Francisco Bay Area to collaborate with Woz, but then the State of California dropped a big fat scholarship to the University of Southern California in my lap, and we parted ways.
That?s government for you. The state thought I was smarter than Woz. Ha!
The last thing he taught me was this really cool way to make long distance phone calls for free with something called a 'blue box.'
I later heard that Woz went to work for some kind of fruit company designing computers, which sounded stupid to me at the time, but Woz was always a guy who marched to a different drummer.
A decade later, I was an ambitious young vice president at Morgan Stanley, and ran into Woz again while escorting Steve Jobs around to big institutional investors hawking an Apple (AAPL) secondary share offering.
By then he had gained a lot of weight. He fascinated me with stories about how he had gone from scrounging around for a bootleg $12 chip, to making $100 million on the Apple IPO in just three years.
The phrase ?only in America? has to come to mind.
We bought our planes at the same time, me a Cessna 340 twin, and he a Beechcraft Bonanza. When I heard he totaled his in a crash in Santa Cruz a few years later, I sent flowers to his hospital room, even though he was in a coma and wasn't expected to live.
In later years we moved into the same philanthropic circles at the San Francisco Ballet, the Computer Museum, and local art museums. To me, Woz always stood out at the social events as the only one who was not an inveterate social climber.
That was vintage Woz. He just didn't care.
When I finally stumbled across his autobiography, iWoz, I grabbed it and devoured the pages in a couple of days.
The tome filled in the holes about what I knew about the man: the wives, the rock concerts, his universal remote control idea, and the early days at Apple.
You also learn a lot about electronics and basic computer hardware and software design.
While there are a lot of 5th grade science teachers who wish they were billionaires, there is only one billionaire who aspired to teach 5th grade science. That is what Woz did for ten years.
Despite the billions, Steve is still an all right guy. To buy the book of his engaging and entertaining story from Amazon, please click here.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Steve-Wozniak.jpg301382Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-08-02 01:06:322016-08-02 01:06:32Hanging Out With the Woz
The team fought their way up two flights of stairs in pitch-blackness, dispatching several fighters along the way.
A tall figure emerged in the green glow of the night vision goggles. It hesitated. Two shots were fired, and the body hit the ground.
That was how Navy Seal Team Six member, Mark Owen, described the last seconds of Al Qaida leader, Osama bin Laden, in the raid on his Abbottabad, Pakistan compound.
I can?t tell you how I met Owen, except that the circumstances are classified, and it took place at an undisclosed location. A number of terrorist groups are seeking retribution for the raid, making Mark and his teammates prime targets.
He and his family now live in the witness protection program buried deep somewhere in the US.
Owen isn?t his real name of course, but a nom de? guerre. In fact, I can?t even tell you what he looks like. His prosthetic make up and wig were so convincing, I doubt his own mother could recognize him.
But there was no doubting the bone-crushing handshake of a Navy Seal.
Spending an hour with ?Owen?, I learned several fascinating details about the raid. Just before launching, the team was told there was a 70% chance the Pakistani Air Force would shoot them down on the way in.
There was also the possibility that their top-secret stealth helicopters would crash on a ground hugging flight through the mountains on the darkest night of the month. Every man was given the option to pass on the mission.
Not one did.
However, that didn?t stop them from joking among themselves about the suicide aspects of their assignment.
What guts!
What was the inside story of the raid?? The most wanted man in the world, the author of the 9/11 attack that killed 3,000 at the World Trade Center, used ?Just for Men?. ?
That was the brand of the hair-coloring agent the Seals discovered in the world?s greatest terrorist?s bathroom, used to make him look younger than he was.
Some of the seals speculated he did this to cut a more threatening figure in his online propaganda diatribes. Others said it was because he had two wives at the site.
The discovery of bin Laden?s secret fortified compound was the result of a decade of tireless investigation by CIA analyst, Maya Lambert. Her role was portrayed in the 2012 film, Zero Dark Thirty, with much embellishment.
The US torture of suspects probably slowed down the hunt, rather than accelerated it, because a glut of false information obscured valuable tips. People will say anything to stop the water boarding, right?
I would.
In the end, it was a junior CIA analyst trolling through ten-year-old archived data gathered in Morocco that uncovered the crucial clue. That was the name of Ibrahim Saeed Ahmed, who turned out to be bin Laden?s personal courier to the outside world.
Constant National Security Agency monitoring of his mother?s phone line in the Persian Gulf led to Ahmed?s location in Pakistan. He was then discretely followed to the mysterious compound in Abbottabad.
Bin Laden successfully hid for so long because he had fallen far off the grid of modern civilization. He never left the building, and didn?t use cell phones or the Internet. Trash was burned on site.
His sole means of communication was via flash drives and DVDs physically carried by Ahmed on an infrequent and unpredictable basis. Bin Laden had effectively jailed himself for five years to stay under the American radar. How ironic.
Since there was no means to verify the identity of the compound?s occupants before the raid, the Seals were the only option. Maya Lambert personally saw them off on their departure from an Eastern Afghanistan base. She too was committed to the mission to the very end.
Even when the helicopter in which Owen was riding crashed because of freak lift conditions, the mission went ahead. Since their carefully crafted and much practiced plan fell apart, they improvised on the spot, a mandatory Seal quality.
They professionally and methodically breached the compound?s outer wall and blew some steel doors off their hinges before they reached their third floor destination.
Owen went to great lengths to explain how the civilians on the site, including bin Laden?s own family members, were kept out of harm?s way.
After dispatching their target, the Seals quickly photographed him, took a DNA sample, and uploaded it via satellite link to Washington DC. Confirmation came back in minutes.
They had gotten their man.
Before the team cleared out, they bagged every possible item of intelligence value. There was so much material that they ran out of bags to carry it. Computers were smashed open and the hard drives pried out to save on space and weight.
Analyzed back home, this data revealed that several new attacks on the United States were in the planning stages.
After blowing up the remains of the crashed helicopter, the entire team piled into the remaining operational one, with only minutes of reserve fuel left. A much-feared counterattack from the Pakistani military never appeared.
After further identification, bin Laden was buried at sea from a US aircraft carrier in the Indian Ocean.
The success of the raid has done much to alter the discussion on the future of military forces, in the US, and around the world.
It turns out that it is strategically and tactically advantageous, and much more cost efficient to field a small number of super warriors, like the Seals, than a large number of cannon fodder.
Every general and admiral I know, and there are quite a few, would love to junk expensive, antiquated Cold War weapons systems whose sole benefit is that they create jobs in battleground congressional districts.
The Army still buys useless, unprotected, IED vulnerable Humvee?s because they are built in Florida, a major swing state in the last six presidential elections.
The Air Force has more wheezing, ancient, fuel inefficient C-130?s than pilots to fly them (we?re now on upgrade number 22) because they were assembled in Georgia, the home state of former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich.
Oh, and the manufacturer, Lockheed Martin (LMT), made sure to buy parts supplied by all 50 states to make it politically ?kill proof.?
Better to spend money on training, cyber warfare, drones, and Special Forces, which will be essential to fight the wars of the future.
?The greatest threat to national security is wasting money in the defense budget,? one brass hat told me, with some irritation.
In fact, the Seals, and the Army?s Delta Force are so effective and destructive that they could well replace entire divisions of the past. It?s a matter of hundreds doing the job of tens of thousands.
Owen went into great detail to explain the incredible difficulty of Navy Seal training. Only small fractions succeed at the 24 week Basic Underwater Demolition/Seal (BUDS) program.
The majority, ?ring the bell,? give up early, and are reassigned elsewhere in the military, without shame.
Mark says he was trained to ?eat the elephant one bite at a time,? and described how he struggled to get through a half year of torture a half day at a time. ?You wake up hoping to make it to lunch without quitting. Then at lunch you focus on getting to dinner without giving up. You then repeat this everyday until you graduate.?
Mark spoke of being dumped a few miles offshore and told to swim home in the icy Pacific. Classes would link arms and lie in the surf for eight hours to get accustomed to hypothermia.
They were tied up and thrown in a swimming pool for ?drown proofing.? For good measure they would then have to push a bus uphill, or repeatedly hoist a telephone pole over their heads.
Modern Seals can not only jump out of a plane at high altitude and blow up anything, they can also hack into computers, disassemble cell phones, and track you down online, no matter where you are.
Spurred on by my Dad?s tales of the old Under
water Demolition Teams (UDT), with whom he had experience during WWII, I once thought about applying to the Seals myself. But in the end, I passed. I didn?t think I could make it through the training. There are not a lot of things I won?t try, but this was one.
Because of their prolonged and extreme training, the Seals always get the toughest missions. Owen also participated in the rescue of Mark Phillips, the captain of the containership, Maersk Alabama, kidnapped by Somali pirates.
The cost of these accomplishments is high. Owen held up his cell phone and said it still contained the numbers of 40 close friends killed in action. He will never delete those contacts.
The Seals? focus on teamwork and leadership is so legendary that it has become an area of interest by American corporate management. Seals will volunteer for once unheard of 10th, 11th, and 12th tours to Iraq and Afghanistan, not because of any extreme patriotism, but because they want to be there to support their buddies.
Unsurprisingly, the divorce rate among Seals is about 90%.
Because of this spectacular record, the Seals are shouldering an ever-larger share of our defense burden.
Their numbers have expanded greatly in the past decade. I can?t tell you how many Seals are in action today because it is classified, but it is a much larger number than you think.
One of the greatest honors I have received in writing this letter is when I was invited by Seal commanders to attend a BUDS graduating class in Coronado, California.
Despite receiving many medals and commendations, Mark comes across as humble and self-effacing. It turns out that the braggarts and big talkers don?t make it through BUDS training.
The son of Christian missionaries in Alaska, Owen is now retired from the forces and is trying to get his life back together.
On complaining about neck pains after his helicopter crash, Mark said the Veterans Administration sent him home with a one-year supply of Motrin. After a hedge fund manager friend volunteered to pay for a private specialist, he was told his neck was ?broken? and sent into surgery the next day.
That sheds some uncomfortable light on the current VA scandal.
When my precious hour was up, I thanked Mark for his service and wished him well.
Mark has published his amazing account of the Abbottabad raid in his book ?No Easy Day.? It is a real page-turner, partially ghost written by a journalist friend. To purchase the book from Amazon, please click here.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/No-Easy-Day-e1407171750657.jpg400267Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-07-28 01:06:312016-07-28 01:06:31Shaking the Hand that Killed Osama bin Laden
I had been filled with great sadness when I had learned of the passing of an old friend and mentor, Roy Essoyan, the former Tokyo bureau chief for the Associated Press.
When I was a young, wet behind the ears financial journalist in Japan during the early seventies, Roy had the charity to take me under his wing and teach me a few tricks of the trade.
We often met for lunch at the Foreign Correspondents? Club of Japan, partaking in the excellent cheeseburgers there, and battling wits over a popular dice game called ?ballout?.
I gathered up what crumbs of wisdom Roy would graciously part with, he careful never to compromise a pending AP scoop. He gave me enough encouragement to give me hope of breaking into this unassailable profession.
The Club was then a hotbed of intrigue between transient writers, foreign intelligence agents, assorted soldiers of fortune, mercenaries, Japanese lobbyists, and opportunists from giant multinational corporations.
There I met Walter Cronkite, John Glen, Deng Xiaoping, Yasser Arafat, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Rupert Murdoch, and countless others. It was a great place for me to end up at the hardened age of 22.
Roy was born in a remote Japanese fishing village in 1919, his parents Armenian refugees from the Russian Revolution. That polyglot background enabled him to become fluent in Russian, Japanese, and finally English.
He was stateless until his early thirties. The outbreak of WWII trapped him in Shanghai. Somehow he survived by writing for an English language newspaper there while avoiding internment in a Japanese concentration camp.
After the war, he made his way to Tokyo, where his language skills landed him work for the Associated Press. Later assignments took him to Hawaii, Beirut, Cairo, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and then back to Tokyo. At press conferences he palled around with Nikita Khrushchev in his native Russian. His claim to fame came when he broke the story of the Soviet-Chinese rift in 1957, which earned him a deportation.
Roy retired to the North Share of Oahu in 1985, within earshot of the pounding giant waves of Waimea Bay and with a fabulous view of the Pacific.
Roy was a man who didn?t suffer fools gladly, but still maintained a dry sense of humor. His suspicion of governments knew no bounds, having witnessed many atrocities first hand.
Roy instilled in me a great instinct to enjoy and participate in history, as well as to survive it. I don?t think I?ve stopped moving since.
When I made the switch from journalism to trading, Roy used to chide me about me never actually producing anything, just poking away at a computer to generate numbers.
I responded that I didn?t see a future in a profession that paid peanuts and was dominated by chain smoking, philandering alcoholics who are now all dead. He knew all the people who I knew and he understood.
When I last visited him at his Hawaiian abode a couple years ago we paged through together scrapbooks of 70-year-old yellowing cuttings of his old stories. They spoke of the corruption, poverty, and inequities then rampant in lawless Shanghai, and the build up to war with Japan.
I?ll never forget how he described small children plucking silk cocoons out of boiling water with their calloused and senseless bare hands in Chinese sweat shops.
When I heard his golf handicap was rising, I knew the end was coming. Roy stayed sharp and irreverent almost to the end. When he died, I knew they wouldn?t make them like him anymore.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Roy-Essoyan.jpg297380Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-06-23 01:07:452016-06-23 01:07:45Tribute to a Giant of Journalism, Roy Essoyan
You would never guess Dr. Ben Bernanke was once one of the most powerful men in the world, indeed in all of human history.
There he sat across the table from me in a popular San Francisco Italian restaurant wearing a poorly made grey suit and a cheap pair of shoes, with rubber soles.
Only the occasional interruption from an autograph seeker belied his true importance.
I managed to snare Ben for a couple of hours on his national book tour promoting his just released "The Courage to Act." Out only days, it was already at the top of the New York Times Best Seller list.
Ben is a different guy now. For a start, you can now call him "Ben" instead of "Governor."
Remember those carefully parsed, measured, and deliberate words he used to use to explain Federal Reserve monetary policy and his future intentions? That guy is long gone.
The new Ben is funny, in a subtle, but wickedly clever manner. He is also instructional, thoughtful, even professorial. At the end of the day, Ben Bernanke is now your favorite faculty member.
Ben's big revelation to me was that there were no potential triggers out there for another 2008-09 type financial crisis.
American banks have been recapitalized to the extent that they now have a stronger safety net with which to weather any future volatility. US banks are bigger than ever.
The big global concern right now is with emerging markets, where trillions of dollars worth of US dollar-denominated debt have been borrowed, collateralized by depreciating local currencies.
Another worry is the perceived "Fed put," which is allowing investors to get complacent with their risk-taking.
Bernanke believes that rising income inequality is the biggest structural problem we face. It means that not all are benefiting from an improving economy, a goal of Fed policy.
This has been unfolding for 40 years, and won't be solved in a day, as several presidential candidates are promising.
As a result, the "Horatio Alger" effect, whereby the poorest can rise to success through brains, hard work, and thrift, is now much less likely to occur than in the past.
Bernanke himself is a perfect example of that phenomenon.
Ben and I spoke at length about the dark days of the crash, and he remembered the emails I used to pepper his staff with proposing fixes or patches on an almost daily basis.
Regulation dating from the 1930s had become outmoded and was woefully out of touch with modern-day finance. It was far too lax in the run-up to the crisis.
For example, insurance giant AIG was monitored by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which was utterly clueless when it came to pricing mathematically complex derivatives.
Bernanke warned President Bush as early as 2005 that real estate prices were getting too high and that a crash was coming.
His predecessor, Alan Greenspan, had cautioned during the 1990s that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had a flawed business model that would eventually blow up and take down the financial system with it.
In the end, every major financial institution was tottering on the edge.
Bernanke had the benefit of completing his Ph.D. thesis on the causes and mistakes of the Great Depression, once an arcane area of economic study.
Thanks to the laissez-faire philosophy of the 1920s, the Fed let the money supply collapse, and one-third of all banks went under, some 8,000 in total. This froze the entire credit system.
Eight decades later, Ben, therefore, saw the answer to another looming depression in an inflated money supply, which we saw with QE 1, 2, 3, and 4.
He also helped engineer the $700 billion TARP that bailed out the 20 biggest banks, which he described as "the most successful, but most hated government policy in history."
When it was wound down, the US Treasury made a $15.3 billion profit on the program.
Part of the problem in selling the TARP, and later, President Obama's 2009 $831 billion stimulus budget, was that while the crisis started in New York and Washington, it was slow to reach the hinterlands.
One Republican congressman in Iowa called local car dealers in his district and asked what the big deal was. Ben said, "Just wait," and General Motors filed for bankruptcy months later.
I asked Ben who was his favorite president, as he was appointed by both George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He confirmed that he liked working for the two men, but that Bush was the natural practical joker.
When Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Bernanke was required to give a weekly briefing on the state of the economy. Once he committed the grievous sartorial error of wearing tan socks with his trademark grey suit.
Bush complained, stating that the White House had dress standards to maintain.
Bernanke answered that he thought the Bush administration was one of fiscal responsibility, and that he had bought a four-pack of the controversial socks at the Gap for only $10.
When Ben attended the next meeting a week later, he wore the required grey socks with his grey suit. He couldn't help but notice that everyone else at the meeting was wearing tan socks with their navy suits, including the president.
When Bush met Bernanke to discuss his appointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006, he asked if he had any political experience.
Bernanke replied that he had served two terms on the Montgomery County, Maryland Board of Education. Bush said, "that was fine."
Bernanke is an extremely intelligent man. You can almost hear the wheels whirring when he is thinking.
I asked him my "gotcha" question.
Wasn't quantitative easing just a means of bridging the demographic chasm of the 2010s, when 85 million baby boomers are retiring? Isn't it just a way to pull growth forward from the 2020s?
He paused for a moment, and then changed the subject.
Finally, I had to ask if Bernanke ever got a chance to read The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader while Fed Chairman. He diplomatically responded that the "Fed takes great pains to take in all views."
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Bernanke-The-Courage-to-Act-e1445182316976.jpg400269Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-10-19 01:06:452020-03-26 14:44:55Dinner with Ben Bernanke
With the entire agricultural space one of the preeminent investment disasters this year, you?d be hard pressed to find a long-term bullish argument for the troubled sector.
You know all those John Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT) hats I saw American tourists wearing in Venice, Italy three years ago?
This year, I didn?t see one!
That is, of course, unless you read this newsletter.
Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world's food supply.
You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB), and rice.
The never dull, and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming is leading to significant changes in world weather patterns that will cause droughts in some of the largest food producing areas, causing massive famines.
Food prices will skyrocket, and billions could die.
At greatest risk are the big rice producing areas in South Asia, which depend on glacial run off from the Himalayas. If the glaciers melt, this crucial supply of fresh water will disappear.
California faces a similar problem if the Sierra snowpack fails to show up in sufficient quantities, as it has for the past four years.
Rising sea levels displacing 500 million people in low-lying coastal areas is another big problem. One of the 80? year old professor's early books The Population Bomb was required reading for me in college in 1970, and I used to drive up from Los Angeles to San Francisco Bay area just to hear his lectures (followed by the obligatory side trip to the Haight-Ashbury).
Other big risks to the economy are the threat of a third world nuclear war caused by population pressures, and global plagues facilitated by a widespread growth of intercontinental transportation and globalization. And I won't get into the threat of a giant solar flare frying our electrical grid.
?Super consumption? in the US needs to be reined in where the population is growing the fastest. If the world adopts an American standard of living, we need four more Earths to supply the needed natural resources.
We must to raise the price of all forms of carbon, preferably through taxes, but cap and trade will work too.
Population control is the answer to all of these problems, which is best achieved by giving women an education, jobs, and rights, and has already worked well in Europe and Japan.
It was with a mixture of nostalgia and awe that I attended the reunion luncheon celebrating the 72nd anniversary of America?s invasion of Guadalcanal. The event was hosted by my former division commander in Desert Storm, Major General Mike Myatt, at the Marines Memorial Association in San Francisco.
I was there to represent the family. My Uncle, Colonel Mitchell Paige, won the first Congressional Medal of Honor of WWII at Guadalcanal; single handedly wiping out 2,000 attacking Japanese in one night with his 30 caliber Brown machine gun (click here for ?Tribute to a True Veteran?).
My dad was there too, as a driver of a Steward light tank. My grandfather served in WWI, and historians tell me that I have a string of military heroes behind me that stretches all the way back to Valley Forge, where the first John Thomas served on George Washington?s staff.
I got plenty of dust under my fingernails myself, but lost a disc in my back from a plane crash, flying support missions for the First Marine Division in the Persian Gulf. Today I have three nephews serving in the Middle East in harm?s way, all in intelligence. So it is safe to say that my family has paid its dues in the defense of our country, and then some.
General Myatt delivered a lecture outlining the desperation and cruel arithmetic of the conflict. The Marines went in with virtually no intelligence and the few primitive maps they could scavenge from National Geographic Magazine against a Japanese army that until then had been undefeated. The US lost 7,000 men, 29 ships, and 600 aircraft. The Japanese lost 30,000 men, 37 ships, and many of their experienced pilots.
Japan never recovered from the blow, and played defense for the rest of the war. It was the single most important battle of the Pacific war. Afterwards, the Marines were sent to Melbourne, Australia for rest, wearing rags, often barefoot, but with weapons in perfect operating condition.
Whenever I give a strategy luncheon in that fair city, I never fail to thank my guests for the hospitality they once extended to my family. Today, a small case at the Melbourne Cricket Ground pays tribute to their sacrifice.
The youngest living Guadalcanal veteran today is 87, and eight of the elderly warriors made it to the reunion. Got to love that Marine health care plan! One 95 year old flew his own plane up from Los Angeles. Once a Marine, always a Marine.
I dined at a table with a van load of veterans from the California Veterans Hospital in Yountville, Napa Valley (click here if you want to, they need you).
One grizzled old sergeant told me that if a friend went missing at night, he was often found tied to a palm tree the next day, tortured to death.? Another time, a surrendering Japanese pulled a hand grenade out of his loincloth and threw it into a sympathetic, but gullible squad, with deadly results. Despite these atrocities, he respected the Japanese today as humble, respectful, and hard working. You don?t find these sentiments among the veterans of other nations at all.
Time has taken a toll on these aging vets more than the enemy ever could. Much of the conversation revolved around the daily aches and pains of living in your late eighties. Pulling out genuine anecdotes was difficult, often resulting in a canned memory dredged from a book or TV documentary produced decades after the event. Some may have been worried that if they did open the door to the past, they would dread what they found.
For a riveting account of the historic battle, please read ?The Pacific? by For a riveting account of the historic battle, please read ?The Pacific? by Hugh Ambrose.? You can purchase the book at Amazon by?clicking here. My uncle Mitch cooperated with Ambrose in the research for the book, which was the basis for the recently released and incredibly realistic HBO series of the same name.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/The-Pacific-by-Hugh-Ambrose.jpg429290Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-01 01:05:542014-09-01 01:05:54Saluting the ?Old Breed?
I have been relying on David Hale as my de facto global macro economist for decades and I never miss an opportunity to get his updated views. The challenge is in writing down David?s eye popping, out of consensus ideas fast enough, because he spits them out in such a rapid-fire succession.
Since David is an independent economic advisor to many of the world?s governments, largest banks and investment firms, I thought his views would be of riveting interest to you.
I met him this time at the posh Ozumo restaurant on San Francisco?s waterfront, near the Ferry Building. A favorite of Silicon Valley?s tech titans, I bumped into Marc Andreessen on the way in, nearly impaling myself on his pointed head.
I settled for a delicate vegetable tempura and eel sushi, while David, being from the Midwest, dug into an excellent Wagyu beefsteak. We washed it all down with liberal doses of Kirin beer and Takagi Shuzo designer sake.
David is an unmitigated bull on the economy, predicting that growth will leap from 2.0% in 2013 to 3% in 2014. Fading away of the fiscal drag created by a gridlocked congress will be the main reason.
Last year, we were hobbled by the maximum Federal income tax rising from 35% to 39.5% for income over $400,000. Capital gains rose from 15% to 20% as well. These combined to subtract 1% off US GDP growth in 2013. There are no such tax hikes planned for 2014.
The economy continues to power along, supported by three legs: housing, the energy boom and a reviving auto industry. Detroit is expected to pump out over 17 million vehicles this year, a figure only dreamed about six years ago, when it hit a rock bottom 9 million unit annual rate.
Management has a death grip on controlling costs, which is why they aren?t hiring, and explains the feeble employment statistics. This has enabled profit margins to surge to all time highs. Expect more of the same.
Europe should grow by 1% in 2014 after delivering a near zero rate this year. It will take years for them to return to any kind of normalized growth rate. That said, continental stock markets could well outperform those in the US in the near term.
David spends much of his time traveling, doing a major intercontinental trip almost every month. The coming calendar includes Japan, Australia, and Europe by yearend. To have his frequent flier points!
Two years ago, David was banging his drum about an imminent recovery in Japan (EWJ) and a collapse in the yen (FXY), (YCS). He was ignored by virtually all, except by me. As you may recall, I started laying on major short positions in the yen about then at David?s behest, which proved wildly successful.
The proof is in the constant testimonials that I regularly publish in my letter. I don?t make these up and they come in almost every day.
David believes that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is doing all the right things, so the recovery is real, sustainable and will play out over several more years. However, he would have been wise to spread out the VAT tax rise that took place in April, from 5% to 8%, over five years instead of bunching it all up in one.
He also should spend less time focusing on domestic nationalistic issues, which have the undesirable effect in that it focuses China on Japan?s regrettable past, not its bright future.
He is also quite an authority on emerging markets (EEM), which account for 40% of global GDP, and sees the recent collapse as presenting a once in a generation buying opportunity.
His favorite is Mexico (EWW), which will benefit hugely from the first new round of political and economic reforms in 20 years. The new oil and gas fracking technology has also arrived just in the nick of time, as its existing conventional fields are approaching exhaustion.
David thinks Greece (GREK) has more to run, although not at the heady pace of the past year. Nigeria (NGE) is another outstanding opportunity, where he recently visited. A privatization wave there could boost GDP growth from 7% to 10%.
To show you how wide David casts his net, he had lunch with none other than Syria?s Bashar al-Assad a decade ago. The country was then enacting a series of ground-breaking liberalizations by privatizing banks, and was viewed as the hot frontier market of the day. How things change!
This is why investors expect outsized returns from these countries. Less, and the risk is not worth it. They?re called ?frontier? for a reason.
David has in the past made some far out predictions that were real zingers. Population growth is grinding to a halt throughout Asia. It is already well below the replacement rate in Japan and South Korea, which will soon be joined by China.
This will eventually lead to labor shortages in Asia, and bring to an end the cheap labor regime, which has driven their economies for the past 100 years. The Chinese work force will shrink from five times ours to only three times.
Their cost advantage then goes out the window. The upshot for us is that perhaps half of the 6 million jobs that America lost to China over the last 20 years will come back. Many items can now be bought cheaper in Chicago than they can in Shanghai.
This explains why ?onshoring? is accelerating with a turbocharger (click here for ?The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating?).
China will still become far and away the world?s largest economy in our lifetimes. In 1700, Asia accounted for 58% of world GDP. Some 250 years of wars pulled that figure down to 15% by 1950. It is on track to recover to 50% by 2050.
To learn more about David Hale and the extensive list of services he offers; please visit the website of David Hale Global Economics at http://www.davidhaleweb.com.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/David-Hale.jpg353305Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-09 01:03:332014-07-09 01:03:33Catching up with Economist David Hale
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
We may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
Essential Website Cookies
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
Google Analytics Cookies
These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.
If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
Other external services
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.