While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
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RRC Long at $11.85
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RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
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FEYE Long at $17.18
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UNIT Long at $6.78
UNIT Short Feb 21st Call @ $0.30
IRBT Long (2) Feb 28th - $52.50 calls @ $2.40
IRBT Long (1) Feb 28th - $52.50 put @ $2.50
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Yesterday, I suggested you close the KEX straddle position. The position closed out with a slight profit. The stock was not bouncing as I expected and I would rather move on and look for another deal.
Next Monday, all markets will be closed for Presidents Day, so there will be a short week next week.
Yesterday, the market paused slightly and closed 5.66 points higher. And the daily range contracted as well.
The range for the day was only 22.91 points. With a daily average true range of 31.26 points, the range yesterday was only 73% of the average.
And the day closed out at 22% of the range of the daily bar.
This suggests the low should be violated before the high. But, pre open, the S & P is trading about 11 points higher.
This projects to an open around 3,369, which would be about 7 points under yesterday's high of 3,375.63.
Watch the high on a push higher. If the S & P can take out yesterday's high, I would expect it to continue higher.
A failure and the market should drop.
But watch the 3,364 area for support. And just under that level is 3,362.
At this point, the real key is the upper band on the daily chart for the
S & P 500. The upper band is 3,386.09.
Yesterday's high hit 3,375.63. So, the market is now within 10.50 points of the upper band.
As you know, this level is a key resistance level. And it should be resistance until the market can close above it.
The QQQ is already trading above its upper band. So, I would not be shocked if the S &P clears its upper band. Especially with all this strength.
SHOP reported last night and is trading about $37 higher. AKAM is trading about $4.50 higher.
Thursday afternoon, we will hear from NVDA and EXPE. ROKU also reports Thursday after the close.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <<
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed Friday at 15.18. The VIX bounces slightly but still manages to close under the major 15.63 level.
But, the VIX managed to close higher on the day. And the S & P did as well, which creates a divergence.
15.63 should still be resistance.
The next key level on the downside is 14.85. Two closes under this level and the VIX should test 12.50 again.
16.41 should be resistance. And the 15.50 area should offer technical support.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,427.40 <
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
The S & P closed at 3,357.75. The minor 3,320.25 level should be support.
The minor 3,359 level should be support and 3,378 is a minor resistance level.
If the S & P can clear this level, look for a move up to 3,398.
The 3,352 area should offer technical support.
Short term trends remain bullish, so buying against support is still the best strategy. But, watch the upper band.
QQQ:
Major level: 234.38
Minor level: 233.60
Minor level: 232.03 **
Major level: 231.25 <
Minor level: 230.48
Minor level: 228.91
Major level: 228.13
Minor level: 227.35
Minor level: 225.78
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 224.22
Minor level: 222.69
Major level: 221.91
The QQQ closed at 232.01. The QQQ closed above the major 231.25 level. And closed just short of the next minor level, which is 232.03.
Two closes above 232.03 and the QQQ should test 234.38.
And the QQQ is firmly above the upper band on its daily chart. The upper band is 229.35. And this level should now be support until the QQQ closes under it.
230.48 should offer support.
Technical support is around 230. And the 234 area should be resistance.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
The IWM closed at 166.96. The IWM should test 168.75.
The IWM moved above the midband on the 60 minute chart. The midband is 165.73. If the IWM can hold this level, it should continue higher. And it should be support.
The 164 level should also offer support.
TLT:
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
Minor level: 144.53 **
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 144.10. The TLT closed back under 144.53. It will have to reclaim this level today, to move higher.
By clearing 143.75, it should now be support.
The 144 area should offer technical support as well.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67 **
Major level: 146.89 <
Minor level: 146.11
Minor level: 144.54
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The GLD closed at 147.66. The GLD will have to reclaim 147.67 to move higher.
The 147 area should be technical support. A break under it and the GLD should head lower.
Momentum is still to the upside, but a break under 147.50, look for the GLD to continue lower.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90 **
Major level: 53.12 <
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
The XLE closed at 54.31. The XLE closed above 53.90. This now suggests that if the XLE can close above 53.90 today, it should make a push up to 56.25.
53.78 is a key support level. If this can hold, look for the XLE to continue to bounce. If it can't, look for a further drop.
Technical resistance should be around 58.
The XLE bounced as we expected. The question is how far can it bounce?
AAPL:
Minor level: 334.38
Minor level: 328.13
Major level: 325.00 <
Minor level: 321.88 **
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Apple closed at 319.61. The key level in the short term is 321.88. If Apple clears this level, look for a move higher.
The upper band is 336 and is the level to watch on the upside.
The 319 area should offer technical support on a pullback. If this level holds, look for a move higher.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TSLA, SHOP, LMT, ADBE, BIIB, MA, LRCX, COST, CTAS, VRTX, HD, LHX, RETA, SYK, ADSK, VRSK, CB, SPLK, UTX
Bearish Stocks: LEA, DLTR, PVH, XOM, GRA, LNG, OLLI, CLB, CARG,
