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Monday all markets are closed for Presidents Day.
The market opened with a 13.55 point gap to the downside yesterday. And it looked like the market would start a strong pullback.
So, the market made a new low and rallied back to make a new high.
Technically, the close percentage of 83% on Wednesday actually was accurate. But it did make a new low first.
But, as I mentioned yesterday, The VIX would have to clear 14.85 to consider a deeper pullback in the market.
And as it turned out, the VIX got as high as 15.44 before dropping under 14.85. It actually hit a low of 14 before closing at 14.15.
The reversal of the VIX to the downside coincided with the S & P bottoming out at 3,360.52.
From the low, the S & P rallied back to a high of 3,385.09. From that point, the market sold off to close at 3,373.94.
This put the close percentage at 55% of the range of the daily price bar.
This is essentially neutral and mean indecision.
The key for today will be the 3,373 level. Watch for support if the market gets above it and resistance if it is below it.
In looking at how the weekly price bar is shaping up, we notice that through yesterday, the weekly range is 67.32 points.
This may not seem all that relevant except for the fact that the weekly average true range is exactly 67.31.
So, like last week, it is possible the range for the week is already in.
The midpoint of the weekly bar so far is 3,351, so a close above it would mean that we would expect more push to the upside.
But, the caveat once again is that the S & P is testing the upper band on the daily chart.
That price level is 3,396.64 and yesterday's high went to within 11.50 points of it.
So, once again watch how price reacts at the upper band.
Because of the holiday Monday, there will not be an update. Enjoy the long Holiday Weekend.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <<
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed at 14.15 yesterday. It manages to close higher, but it could not hold the 14.85 level.
This suggests that a test of 12.50 is now the objective.
The VIX would have to clear 14.85 today for a pullback to happen.
The divergence from Tuesday could indicate another quick pullback will happen.
Technical resistance is at 14.80.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,427.40 <
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
The S & P closed at 3,373.94. The S & P got above the minor 3,378 resistance level, but could not close above it.
This level should be minor resistance. So, the S & P would have to clear this level to head higher.
The 3,365 area should offer technical support.
QQQ:
Major level: 234.38
Minor level: 233.60 **
Minor level: 232.03
Major level: 231.25
Minor level: 230.48
Minor level: 228.91
Major level: 228.13
Minor level: 227.35
Minor level: 225.78
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 224.22
Minor level: 222.69
Major level: 221.91
The QQQ closed at 233.97. The QQQ did clear the major 234.38, but could not close above it.
The QQQ will need to have two closes under 233.60 to drop to 231.25.
And the upper band is 230.70 and the QQQ is still trading above it. Remember, it is support until it is violated.
The 233 are should provide technical support.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
The IWM closed at 168.55. The IWM should test 168.75. Target hit. The high for the IWM yesterday was 168.95, taking out the target by 20 cents.
The IWM is close to crossing into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart. If this can happnen, I would expect further movement to the upside.
The 167 level should offer support. And technical support is at 168.
TLT:
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
Minor level: 144.53 **
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 143.92. The TLT closed back above 143.75. This level should now offer support.
Watch the 143.60 area. By clearing this level, it should be support as well.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67 **
Major level: 146.89 <
Minor level: 146.11
Minor level: 144.54
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The GLD closed at 148.38. The GLD did reclaim the 147.67 level. With a close today above 147.67, the GLD should test 150.
The 149 area should now be technical support. A break under it and the GLD should head lower.
Momentum remains bullish.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90 **
Major level: 53.12 <
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
The XLE closed at 54.87. Minor support should still be at 53.90. And look for a move up to the 56 area.
53.78 is a key support level. If this can hold, look for the XLE to continue to bounce. If it can't, look for a further drop.
Technical resistance should be around 58. And support around 54.
The XLE bounced, as we expected. The question is how far can it bounce?
AAPL:
Minor level: 334.38
Minor level: 328.13
Major level: 325.00 <
Minor level: 321.88 **
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Apple closed at 324.87. Apple did hit 325 again. the high for the day was 326.22.
The upper band is 339 and is the level to watch on the upside.
The 322 area should offer technical support on a pullback. If this level holds, look for a move higher.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TSLA, SHOP, LMT, ADBE, BIIB, MA, LRCX, COST, CTAS, VRTX, HD, LHX, RETA, SYK, ADSK, VRSK, CB, SPLK, UTX
Bearish Stocks: LEA, DLTR, PVH, XOM, GRA, LNG, OLLI, CLB, CARG,