While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
UNIT Long at $6.78
UNIT Short Feb 21st Call @ $0.30
IRBT Long (2) Feb 28th - $52.50 calls @ $2.40
IRBT Long (1) Feb 28th - $52.50 put @ $2.50
................................................................................
Friday closed out with the S & P 500 closing 6.22 points higher. The week closed out at 3,380.16.
And the day contracted. The range for the day was 14.54. The range was exactly one half of the daily average true range.
Along with the contraction, the day was an inside day. This, of course, is a day with a lower high and a higher low.
The day closed at 96% of the daily price bar. Though there is some weight as to the higher close percentage, the key for today will be the high, close and the low.
The close is typically a support or resistance point. A move below the close and it should be resistance. A move above it and it would be support.
You also need to watch the high and the low.
Typically, if the price takes out one end of an inside bar, it will usually continue in that direction.
And finally, the other key characteristic of an inside bar is that with it being a contraction, an expansion will follow. It may not be the next day, but we can expect an expansion at some point.
As for the weekly price bar, for the second consecutive week, the weekly range was in on Thursday.
I mentioned on Friday that the weekly range through Thursday was exactly the weekly average true range.
As it turned out, the range for the week was in.
The range for the week ended up being 67.32 points. And the weekly average true range is 67.31 points.
The weekly price bar closed 52.45 points higher. And it closed at 92.7% of the weekly price bar.
And with a higher high and a higher low, the weekly bar was decidedly bullish.
Support from last week's weekly price bar will be in the 3,349 to 3,351 area.
The major technical factor at the moment is that the VIX is almost back at the major long term 12.50 support level.
Last week's low for the VIX was 13.38, so the VIX is within 88 cents on that level.
The other key technical factor is the upper band on the daily chart for the
S & P 500.
I have been writing about this as the market is creeping up to the upper band.
The upper band is 3,402.16 and Friday's high was 3,385.09. Friday put the price within 20 points of the upper band.
As you know, this is a key resistance level. And should be until it is violated.
The extreme bollinger bands should contain 99.9% of the price action, so the fact that the market is at this level is a very significant fact.
Earnings do continue this week.
This afternoon we get earnings from WMT. Thursday before the open, we hear from DPZ and Friday morning we get DE.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <<
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed at 13.68 on Friday. The VIX closed 0.47 points lower.
I still expect a test of 12.50. And 14.85 should still be resistance.
Technical resistance is at 14.70.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,427.40 <
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
The S & P closed at 3,380.16. Watch the minor 3,378 resistance level. Watch for support at this level.
A break under 3,378 and it would be resistance. The 3,365 area should offer technical support.
Short term charts remain bullish, so momentum is still to the upside.
QQQ:
Major level: 237.50
Minor level: 236.73
Minor level: 235.16 **
Major level: 234.38 <
Minor level: 233.60
Minor level: 232.03
Major level: 231.25
Minor level: 230.48
Minor level: 228.91
Major level: 228.13
Minor level: 227.35
Minor level: 225.78
Major level: 225.00
The QQQ closed at 234.64. The QQQ did clear the major 234.38, and closed above it.
The QQQ will need to have two closes above 235.16 to move up to 237.50.
And the upper band is 231.39 and the QQQ is still trading above it. Remember, it is support until it is violated. It continues to be the strongest market.
The 233 are should provide technical support.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
The IWM closed at 167.90. The IWM hit the 168.75 level, which was the objective. Fridays high was 168.78.
The IWM still has not crossed into an uptrend on its 60 minute chart, but it is close. If it does cross up, the price should continue higher. 166 is the midband on the 60 minute and it should be support.
The 167 level should offer support. And technical support is at 168.
TLT:
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
Minor level: 144.53 **
Major level: 143.75 <
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 144.55. A close today above 144.53 and the TLT should move up to 146.88.
Watch the 143.60 area. By clearing this level, it should be support as well. And it should offer technical support.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67 **
Major level: 146.89 <
Minor level: 146.11
Minor level: 144.54
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The GLD closed at 149. The objective for the GLD should be to 150, and Friday's high went to within 90 cents of it.
The 147.67 area should now be technical support. A break under it and the GLD should head lower. And technical support is at 148 as well.
Momentum remains bullish.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90 **
Major level: 53.12 <
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
The XLE closed at 54.58. Minor support should still be at 53.90. And look for a move up to the 56 area. A break under 53.90 and the XLE should head lower.
53.78 is a key support level. If this can hold, look for the XLE to continue to bounce. If it can't, look for a further drop.
Technical resistance should be around 58. And support around 54.
AAPL:
Minor level: 334.38
Minor level: 328.13
Major level: 325.00 <
Minor level: 321.88 **
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Apple closed at 324.95. Apple did hit 325 again. The high for the day was 325.98.
The upper band is 340 and is the level to watch on the upside.
The 321.88 area should offer technical support on a pullback. If this level holds, look for a move higher. Pre open, Apple is trading about $11 lower based on the virus fears out of China.
Wath to see if it holds the major 312.50 level. If it can't, I would expect Apple to move even lower.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOLG, TSLA, MELI, SHOP, REGN, ADBE, NOW, NTES, LRCX, MA, COST, INTU, NVDA, DXCM, APD, HD, RNG
Bearish Stocks: WAT, EEFT, W, CXO, CHRW, RPD, LNG, NTAP, CSCO, HLF, XEC, RAMP, SINA
