While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $15.20
Premium Collected - $3.55
AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $2.25
UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35
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You should have closed out the SNAP position yesterday. Profits have been booked.
The S & P 500 gapped up again yesterday at the open, but failed to hold the gains.
The market opened at 2,710.42 and rallied to a high of 2,731.26. From the open to the high, it was a move of about 21 points. From there, the market failed, and dropped to a low of 2,697.77, before closing at 2,703.96.
The VIX could not break through the upper band on its daily chart. The high for the VIX was 20.61 and the upper band is 21.22.
This keeps me baised to the longside, even though the S & P 500 has now had two closes under 2,714.88.
A major longer term support level is 2,695.38. This is the level to watch to see if it holds. If it can't, I would expect the market to drop lower.
At this point, the S & P 500 has not made a higher high or lower low on the weekly timeframe.
2,688.44 is the midpoint of last week's weekly price bar and should offer support.
This week's high so far is 2,747.75 and the low is 2,697.77, just a few points above the major support level I mentioned above.
A close below last week's high and above last week's low would set up a double inside bar formation on the weekly chart.
This would imply a range expansion next week. And with a range so far this week of about 50 points, clearly the market has contracted after three weeks of ranges over 100 points.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 **
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 18.72. This was the first close under the 18.75 level.
This now implies that if the VIX can close tody under 18.75, it should drop to 12.50.
21.88 should now be resistance.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88 **
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,636.75
With a close at 2,703.96, the S & P 500 could test 2,656.30.
2,695.30 is a major support level. If this level is tested, I would expect support to hold. If 2,695.30 is violated, the next support level on the downside is 2,646.50.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 6 points to the upside. Watch to see if the S & P 500 can clear 2,714.88.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
The QQQ closed at 164.80. The QQQ should test the 168.75 level.
And minor support continues at 162.50. A break above 165.63 and the QQQ should head higher.
164.06 is also a support area.
IWM:
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 152.00. Biased for a retest of 150.
I would expect strong support at the 150 level. But, watch the minor 151.56 level as it could offer support.
To move lower, the IWM needs two closes under 149.22.
TLT:
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80 **
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT broke and closed at 117.09. To move lower, the TLT will now need two closes under 116.80.
115.63 is a key level and the TLT breaks under this level, it shuold head lower. But, the TLT is oversold short term.
Watch to see if the TLT can clear 117.19. If it can, it may start the bounce we are expecting.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
The GLD closed at 126.30. A close today above 125.78 and the GLD should test 128.13.
125 should be strong support. A break under this level tells us the GLD should head lower. And if the GLD can clear 128.13, I would expect it to head higher.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
The XLE closed at 67.34. It closed just above the midband, which is 67.24. Watch to see if the midband holds.
65.63 should offer support.
FXY:
Major level: 91.41
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83
Major level: 89.06 <
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
The FXY closed at 89.91, clearing the major 89.06 level. It is also back above the upper band, which is 89.17.
89.45 should offer support.
AAPL:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88 <
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Apple closed at 172.50, closing above 171.88. At this point, 171.88 should offer support.
The 166 area should be strong support from last week's weekly price bar. And 165.63 is a major support level.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, BA, RTN, MA, CME, PANW, FFIV, RHT, ATHN, WDAY, EW, DATA, SFLY, TPR
Bearish Stocks: ULTA, AAP, EXPE, THS, CTB, PDCO, MXL, SKT, GOV
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
