While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46
Short March 1st - $9 Call @ $0.20
FEYE Long at $17.18
FEYE Short March 8th-$17.50 Call @ $.30
EA Long March 15th - $95 Call @ $4.50
EA Short March 15th - $100 Call @ $2.35
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If you followed the alerts from yesterday, you would have added two new positions. The first was a weekly covered call on FEYE. I suggested you buy the stock and sell the $17.50 call that expires next Friday.
The second position was a short term debit spread on EA. I suggested buying the $95 call and selling the $100 calls for March 15th.
Yesterday, the market closed slightly higher. It was up 3.44 points and closed at 2,796.11.
It got as high as 2,813.49 before selling off to close about 17 points lower.
But with the gap open of 11.68 points, the close still managed to be above the high from Monday.
However, for the day, the S & P 500 closed at 6% of the daily price bar.
This tells us that there is a 90% chance that yesterday's low of 2,794.99 will be violated before the high of 2,813.49.
But I would expect after a pullback that the market should find support. The question is where?
The logical support areas could be the minor 2,792.98 support level, which is also the close from Friday.
If this area does not hold, look for support at the 2,788 area.
And finally, on a deeper pullback, the weekly support area of 2,780 should offer strong support.
Earnings do continue this week. This afternoon we will hear from PANW.
And tomorrow, we will hear from BKNG.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 14.85 yesterday. It bounced back almost 10%. The objective for the VIX is still to 12.50 which does suggest that higher levels should continue to be resistance.
However, yesterday, the VIX and S & P 500 diverged. Both closed to the upside. The last time that happened, the S & P 500 followed with two straight strong bullish days.
Resistance should now be at 14.84. And at 15.63. 14.06 should be support.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Watch the levels I mentioned above. Also, the S & P 500 will need to clear 2,797.90 to move higher.
Active objective remains to 2,812.50.
Both the 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain in uptrends which does suggest that buying against support is still the viable strategy
Technical support is around 2,774.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
The QQQ closed at 173.52 yesterday. The upside objective is still to 175. And yesterday's high came to within 40 cents of the objective.
Like the S & P 500, both the 30 & 60 minute charts remain firmly bullish.
171.88 is minor support. And 172 is still technical support, so this area should offer strong support on a pullback.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 158.19. The IWM had its second close above 157.81 yesterday so the objective should be up to 162.50.
159.38 is minor resistance. A break above this level and the IWM should continue higher.
156.25 should be strong support on a pullback. And technical support is at 157.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
The TLT closed at 121.21. If the TLT can clear 121.88, I would expect it to head higher. But, it is still resistance until it is cleared.
Support should be at 121.09 and at 120.70.
Technical support is in the 121 area as well.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13 ***
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 <
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
The GLD jumped and closed at 125.37. The major 126.56 level should offer resistance.
And at this point, 125 should be support. A break under 125 and I would expect the GLD to head lower.
The 123 to 124 area should offer technical support.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 65.87. The XLE did manage to recoup the 65.63 level. Look for support here.
62.50 should offer major support. Technical support is around the 64 to 66 area. Short term charts remain bullish.
If the XLE breaks under 65.63, short term support is at 65.23.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72 ***
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY finally broke a bit and closed at 85.90. It closed down 34 cents o the day.
And 86.04 should now offer minor resistance.
Short term charts remain bearish. And the daily chart is also bearish. This would suggest strong resistance at the 86.69 level.
AAPL:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Predicted High: 176.20
Predicted Low: 172.26
Apple closed yesterday at 174.23. Still expecting a move up to 175 and Apple got to within 13 cents of it.
171.88 should offer strong support. And technical support is right around 171.70.
Biased for a move up. Continuing to look for an entry.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ULTA, COST, ZBRA, WDAY, VRSN, CMI, CRM, V, OLED, CRL, CHKP, KMB, DATA, DIS, HSY, PYPL, UAL
Bearish Stocks: NTES, AGN, ALNY, GDOT, KSS, XPO, URBN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.