While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46
Short March 1st - $9 Call @ $0.20
FEYE Long at $17.18
FEYE Short March 8th - $17.50 Call @ $0.30
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Yesterday I suggested you book the one day profit on the EA position.
With a gain of almost 20% overnight, I do like to book this when trading short-dated options. I consider any option expiration less than one month as short-dated.
Yesterday, the market closed modestly lower. For the day, it was down 2.21 points and closed at 2,793.90.
This price is significant as you no doubt recognize that it is within one point of our minor 2,792.98 price level. But, I also feel a close above it, you still expect lower levels to act as support.
Yesterday's low stopped at 2,789.47. I bring this up because I mentioned this yesterday:
"The logical support areas could be the minor 2,792.98 support level, which is also the close from Friday.
If this area does not hold, look for support at the 2,788 area."
That's all and good, but what about today?
For starters, the daily price bar ended up closing at 32% of the range of the daily bar.
This tells us that there is about a 70% chance that yesterday's low will be violated before the high. The low from yesterday was 2,789.47, so you want to monitor this level.
The resistance level from yesterday is in the 2,793 to 2,796 area.
The weekly support area of 2,780 should still offer strong support.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 5 points lower. Assuming this trading holds up until the open, the market should open just under yesterday's low.
PANW did report last night and is flat.
This afternoon we will hear from BKNG and SQ.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed at 15.17 yesterday. It was up slightly on the day and closed 0.32 points higher.
Resistance should still be at the higher levels. Most notably the 15.63 level or the short term 15.23 level.
If the VIX takes out 15.23 and breaks back under it, look for the market to head higher. If it holds as support, the pullback may last a bit longer.
14.06 is support.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Watch the levels I mentioned above. Also, the S & P 500 will need to clear 2,797.90 to move higher.
Active objective remains to 2,812.50.
Both the 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain in uptrends which does suggest that buying against support is still the viable strategy.
Technical support is around 2,786.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
The QQQ closed at 173.70 yesterday. The upside objective is still to 175. And yesterday's high came to within 75 cents of the objective.
Like the S & P 500, both the 30 & 60 minute charts remain firmly bullish.
173.05 is a minor support level. Technical support is around 174.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 157.10. The objective should be up to 162.50.
The IWM pulled back slightly to just above the mid band on the daily chart. The midband is now 156.25 which is exactly a major level.
This should offer strong support. If it can't hold, you know the IWM will pull back.
159.38 is minor resistance. A break above this level and the IWM should continue higher.
Both the 30 and 60 minute charts remain strongly bullish.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
The TLT closed at 121.81. If the TLT can clear 121.88, I would expect it to head higher. But, it is still resistance until it is cleared.
Minor support should be at 121.58 and at 121.48.
Technical support is in the 121 area as well.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13 ***
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 <
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
The GLD closed at 125.58. The major 126.56 level should still offer resistance.
And at this point, 125 should be support. A break under 125 and I would expect the GLD to head lower.
The 123 to 124 area should offer technical support. This area is still valid.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 65.66. The XLE is flirting with the 65.63 level. Watch how the XLE reacts here.
62.50 should offer major support. Technical support is around the 64 to 66 area. Short term charts remain bullish.
If the XLE breaks under 65.63, short term support is at 65.43.
Both the 30 & 60 minute charts remain bullish.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72 ***
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 86.28. It was up 0.38 on the day.
And 86.52 should now offer minor resistance. And it is possible the FXY could retest the midband on the daily chart which is now 86.67. I would still expect resistance there.
Short term charts remain bearish. And the daily chart is also bearish. This would suggest strong resistance at the 86.20 level.
AAPL:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Predicted High: 176.28
Predicted Low: 172.38
Apple closed yesterday at 174.33. Still expecting a move up to 175 and Apple got to within 70 cents of it.
Both their short term 30 and 60 minute charts remain bullish.
172.40 should offer technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ULTA, COST, ZBRA, WDAY, VRSN, CMI, CRM, V, OLED, CRL, CHKP, KMB, DATA, DIS, HSY, PYPL, UAL
Bearish Stocks: NTES, AGN, ALNY, GDOT, KSS, XPO, URBN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.