While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $2.80
Short March $16 call @ $0.55
UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35
..........................................................................................
Today closes out the month of February 2018. The month of February opened at 2,816.45 before dropping to a low of 2,532.69. I bring this up because the upper band on the monthly chart is 2,535.76 and the S & P 500 slightly touched it before recovering.
From the low, the market rallied and closed yesterday at 2,744.28. The high for the month so far, is 2,835.96.
So through yesterday, the monthly price bar had a range of 303.27 points. The midpoint would be at 2,684.43.
Even with yesterday's sell off, the close was still 59.85 points above the midpoint. A close above the midpoint would be bullish. A close above the open, would be even more bullish. But, the market would have to rally over 72 points today to close above the open. I doubt that will happen.
But, the S & P 500 tested the upper band and rallied back above it. As you know, a close under the upper band would be bearish. This test and move higher should indicate that this bull move is not over.
Yesterday, the S & P 500 gave back all the gains from Monday. After closing 32.30 points to the upside on Monday, the market closed to the downside 35.32 points yesterday.
And with a close at the low end of the daily price bar, the odds favor a violation of the low before the high.
Having said that, the 30 minute chart has moved into an uptrend. And the midband on the 30 minute chart is 2,719.53. This should be an area of support. And a minor support level is at 2,695.30.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading modestly to upside.
PANW reported last night and is trading about $9 higher based on their report.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 18.86. This was just above the 18.75 level, which is where I would expect resistance to be.
Intra day, the VIX dropped to a low of 15.65, just two cents above the 15.63 level I mentioned yesterday, before rallying to just above 18.75.
A break above 18.75 would indicate the VIX should head higher, and the market lower.
Minor resistance should be at 20.31.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
With a close yesterday below 2,753.93, the S & P 500 will need two above that minor level to confirm a move up to the 2,812.50 level.
2,695.38 could also offer support.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
The QQQ closed at 168.29. The 165.63 should offer support on the first test.
167.19 should offer minor support.
IWM:
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91 **
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 152.76. Support should be at 150 and possibly at 151.56.
To move lower, the IWM would need two closes under 152.35.
TLT:
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed at 118.00. The high for the day was 118.66. Watch the 118.75 level. It should offer resistance.
117.19 should offer support.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
The GLD closed at 125.13. 125 should be strong support. A break under this level tells us the GLD should head lower.
The next level on the downside after 125, is 124.22. A break under 124.22 and the GLD should drop
to 121.88.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53 **
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed at 68.31. The XLE will need to reclaim 68.36 to head higher. A close today under 68.36 and the XLE could drop to 67.
Resistance should now be at 68.75.
FXY:
Major level: 91.41
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83
Major level: 89.06 <
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
The FXY closed at 89.28. It closed back inside the upper band, which is 89.83.
89.06 is a minor support level. And if the FXY breaks under 88.67, look for it to head lower.
AAPL:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91**
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Apple closed at 178.39, taking out the 178.13 level. Apple still needs two closes above 178.91 to test 181.25.
The 175 should now offer strong support. And 178.13 should also be a support level.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, BA, LLL, ADBE, CTAS, PANW, FFIV, RHT, JPM, CRM, GPN, ZTS, SFLY, CTSH, PTC, MSFT,
Bearish Stocks: REGN, MLM, AGN, ZBH, KMB, DGX, HSY, CL, KHC, MMP, PZZA, HCN, TUP
Be sure to check earnings release dates.