While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
UNIT Long at $6.78
UNIT Short Feb 21st Call @ $0.30
KEX Long (2) Mar 20th - $75.00 calls @ $2.60
KEX Long (1) Mar 20th - $75.00 put @ $3.10
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Before I begin to discuss this highly volatile market, I do need to mention that I suggested you close the NTAP position after a day.
The stock actually hit the price target I was looking for, so I felt it better to book the profit of 22% for one day.
This melt-up continues.
Yesterday closed out 37.10 points higher. The S & P 500 closed at 3,334.69.
The close put the S & P back above the minor 3,320.25 level. This now suggests that the move can go even higher.
The range for the day was 23.83 points. But once again, this was due to the fact that the market gapped 18 points higher at the open than Tuesday's high.
The actual high to high range was 30.66, which was just under the daily average true range, which is 33.71 points.
And the close percentage was 88%, which continues to suggest that the high should be violated before the low.
And pre open, the S & P is trading about 12 points higher. If this holds up through the open, the market should open about 9 points above yesterday's high of 3,337.58. So, this level should be support on a pullback.
And the minor 3,320.25 level should also be a support level.
Finally, support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 3,325 to 3,330 area.
The S & P is creeping up to the upper band on its daily chart. The upper band is 3,367.42 and yesterday's close was within 32 points of it. I would expect the market to test the upper band.
Depending upon how the market reacts at the level should tell us what the market will do.
I have been writing about the manic move in TSLA.
And yesterday finally saw the pullback we have been looking for. TSLA sold off $152.36 dollars or 17.18%.
Even with this sell off, TSLA is still well above its upper band on the daily chart.
TSLA closed at $734.70 and the upper band is $567.73. So, it is still about $160 above that level.
This move has been one for the record books. But, you do not want to get caught buying in an overbought condition like that.
BDX reported and is trading about $26 lower. REGN reported and is up about $15.
This afternoon we will get earnings from BIDU, FLT, and ZEN.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75 <<
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed Friday at 15.15. The VIX took out the 15.63 objective we expected.
The next key level is 14.85. Two closes under this level and the VIX should test 12.50 again.
16.41 should be resistance. The 14 area should offer technical support. And technical resistance is at 16.75.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,427.40
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20 <
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
The S & P closed at 3,334.69. If the S & P closes above 3,329.25 today, it should test 3,427.40.
The 3,320.25 level should be support.
The 3,325 area should offer technical support. Short term charts remain bullish.
QQQ:
Major level: 231.25
Minor level: 230.48
Minor level: 228.91 **
Major level: 228.13 <
Minor level: 227.35
Minor level: 225.78
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 224.22
Minor level: 222.69
Major level: 221.91
Minor level: 221.13
Minor level: 219.56
Major level: 218.75
Minor level: 218.00
The QQQ closed at 228.22. The QQQ took out the 228.13 target we expected.
Watch the minor 228.91 level. Two closes above that level and the QQQ should move up to 231.25.
The QQQ closed back above the upper band on the daily chart. That price level is 226.89. This should now be support.
Technical support is at 227. And the 230 area should be resistance.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
The IWM closed at 167.31. The objective for the IWM should be for a move up to 168.75.
The IWM did clear the midband on its 60 minute chart. That price level is now 164.47 and should offer support.
Technical support should be around 166.
TLT:
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97 **
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.84
The TLT closed at 142.01. The TLT closed under the minor 142.97 level. This now suggests that if the TLT closes under 142.97 today, it should drop to 140.63.
The TLT continues to sell off from its short term overbought condition.
The midband on the 60 minute chart is 139 and should be support. And technical support should be around 141 and resistance at 144.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89 <
Minor level: 146.11
Minor level: 144.54
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The GLD closed at 146.61. 147.67 should now be resistance. And the GLD would need two closes under 146.11 to drop to 143.75.
It is now oversold short term. And I would expect a bounce up to the 148 area.
148 should be technical resistance. 146 should be support.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90 **
Major level: 53.12 <
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
The XLE closed at 54.92. The XLE will need to clear 53.12 to move higher. And it did have its first close above 53.12. A close today above 53.90 and the XLE should test 56.25.
The XLE is bouncing from its oversold condition, as we expected.
Technical support should be around 54. And resistance at 58.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63 **
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Apple closed at 321.45. With a close above 315.63, the objective should be for a move up to 325.
The upper band is 331 and is the level to watch on the upside.
The 318 area should offer technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TSLA, SHOP, ADBE, PAYC, MCO, DXCM, APD, CME, NOW, RNG, CRM, DECK, MSFT, HSY, LLY, CBOE, WM
Bearish Stocks: ANTM, ALGN, MMM, FDX, AAP, LEA, FFIV, RL, FIVE, EXPE, CVX, ALXN, DLTR, XLNX, CXO, LOPE, FANG, EXPD, EOG