Global Market Comments
June 26, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE EIGHT WORST TRADES IN HISTORY),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Global Market Comments
June 25, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE U-HAUL INDICATOR)
Global Market Comments
June 24, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TESTIMONIAL),
(WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION DEBT?),
($TNX), (TLT), (TBT)
Global Market Comments
June 21, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(I’M TAKING OFF FOR THE ALASKA SEMINAR AT SEA)
I need a vacation.
I have been working nonstop for decades and desperately need a break. It seems that the older I get, the more I know, and the more in demand I become.
You can tear up your Rolodex card for me, unfriend me on Facebook, designate my email address as SPAM, and block my X account. It won’t do you any good.
If I don’t take some time off, I am going to start raving MAD!
Over the last 16 years, I have worked the hardest in my entire life. And the last six months I have had to work with a bullet wound in my hip courtesy of the Russian Army in Ukraine. Whenever I have free time, I go fight a war. That’s who you want calling your trades.
So far in 2024, I have brought in a total return of +20.00%, versus +11.00% for the S&P 500. If you got half of my performance, you beat virtually everyone else in the industry, even the best hedge funds. In other words, I underpromised and over delivered….in spades.
If you wonder why I do this it’s really very simple. Read my inbox and you would burst into tears.
Every day, I learn tales of mortgages paid off, student loans dealt with, college educations financed, and early retirements launched. I am improving lives by the thousands. That’s far better than any hedge fund bonus could offer me, although I wouldn’t mind owning the Golden State Warriors.
At this late stage in my life, the most valuable thing is to be needed and listened to. If that means becoming a cult leader that’s fine with me. After all, the last guy to try this route got crucified.
When horrific uncontrollable wildfires broke out in California, I flew volunteer spotter planes for Cal Fire, holding the stick with one hand and a pair of binoculars with the other, looking for trouble and radioing in coordinates, and directing aerial tankers. Nobody can fly wildfires like I can.
I lost access to my Lake Tahoe house when the big fire hit right in the middle of a remodel. All the contractors disappeared chasing much higher-paying insurance work. At least we now have a 20-mile-wide fire break to the southwest of the lake.
On top of all this, I was on speed dial at the Joint Chiefs and the US Marine Corps. A major? Really? And now I’m a major in two armies, the US and Ukraine. Seems you’re not the only one in desperate need of global macro advice.
The best compliment I received last year was when my commander in Ukraine told me I was the bravest man he ever met. I told him all Americans are like me. Whenever I enter the Marines Club in San Francisco they call me a hero. In a building full of heroes that is a big deal.
So, I will spend the next two weeks on Cunard’s Queen Elisabeth reading the deep research, speaking with old hedge fund buddies, the few still left alive, and trying to come up with a game plan for the rest of 2024. One thing is certain: We are at the beginning of a bull market that could last five or ten years.
Instead of sending out urgent trade alerts, emergency news flashes, and more research than you can read, I’ll be hosting my Seminar at Sea in my owner's suite, practicing my foxtrot, fencing, playing my banjo, and watching for orcas off the bow deck.
In the meantime, I’ll be running some of my favorite research pieces from the past over the next two weeks. Hot Tips will publish as usual.
John Thomas
CEO and Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Cunard’s Queen Elisabeth
Global Market Comments
June 20, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MAD HEDGE JUNE 4-6 SUMMIT YOUTUBE VIDEOS ARE UP),
(WHAT AI CAN AND CAN’T DO FOR YOU)
(AAPL), (GOOGL), (AMZN), (AMZN), (TSLA), (NVDA), (MU)
Listen to all 22 speakers opine on the best strategies, tactics, and instruments to use in these volatile markets. It is a true smorgasbord of investment strategies. Find the best one to suit your own goals.
The product discounts offered last week are still valid. Start, stop, and pause the videos at your leisure. Best of all, access to the videos is FREE. Access them all by clicking here.
We look forward to working with you and the next summit is scheduled for September.
Global Market Comments
June 18, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 2 VANCOUVER CANADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY)
(TLT), (TSLA)
Come join me for lunch at my Global Strategy Luncheon which I will be conducting in Vancouver, Canada at 12:00 PM on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. A three-course lunch is included. This is my first ever Strategy Luncheon in Canada so I expect an enthusiastic attendance.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate.
And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $239.
I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at an exclusive hotel in central Vancouver, the details of which will be emailed to you.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.
I know all of this may sound confusing at first. But once you get the hang of it, this is the greatest way to make money since sliced bread.
I still have two positions left in my model trading portfolio that are deep in-the-money, and about to expire in 3 trading days. Those are the
(AMZN) 6/$160-$170 call spread
(SLV) $23-$25 call spread
That opens up a set of risks unique to these positions.
I call it the “Screw up risk.”
As long as the markets maintain current levels, this position will expire at its maximum profit value.
With the June 21 options expirations upon us, there is a heightened probability that your short position in the options may get called away.
Although the return for those calling away your options is very small, this is how to handle these events.
If exercised, brokers are required by law to email you immediately and I know all of this may sound confusing at first. But once you get the hang of it, this is the greatest way to make money since sliced bread.
If it happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.
Most of you have short-option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.
The short options can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.
You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.
Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away.
I’ll use the example of the Amazon (AMZN) June 2024 $160-$170 in-the-money vertical Bull Call spread since so many of you have these.
For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 3 days before the June 21 expiration date.
In other words, what you bought for $9.30 on June 6 is now worth $10.00, giving you a near-instant profit of $840 or 9.68% in 11 trading days.
All have to do is call your broker and instruct them to “exercise your long position in your (AMZN) June 2024 $160 calls to close out your short position in the (AMZN) June 2024 $101 calls.”
You must do this in person. Brokers are not allowed to exercise options automatically, on their own, without your expressed permission.
You also must do this the same day that you receive the exercise notice.
This is a perfectly hedged position. The name, the ticker symbol, the number of shares, and the number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.
Call options are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.
Short positions usually only get called away for dividend-paying stocks or interest-paying ETFs like the (AMZN). There are strategies out there that try to capture dividends the day before they are payable. Exercising an option is one way to do that.
Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.
A call owner may need to sell a long (AMZN) position after the close, and exercising his long (AMZN) put is the only way to execute it.
Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.
There are thousands of algorithms out there that may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.
Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.
And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.
And here’s another possible outcome in this process.
Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it.
There is a further annoying complication that leads to a lot of confusion. Lately brokers have resorted to sending you warnings that exercises MIGHT happen to help mitigate their own legal liability.
They do this even when such an exercise has zero probability of happening, such as with a short call option in a LEAPS that has a year or more left until expiration. Just ignore these, or call your broker and ask them to explain.
This generates tons of commissions for the broker but is a terrible thing for the trader to do from a risk point of view, such as generating a loss by the time everything is closed and netted out.
There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.
Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.
Brokers have so many ways to steal money legally that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.
This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.
Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.
If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.
Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.
If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.
Calling All Options!