Global Market Comments
August 15, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CALIFORNIA MONEY DOWN THE DRAIN?)
(DEATH OF THE CONSUMER), (SPX)
?S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Who was the top paid state employee in California last year? The governor? The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court? How about the leader of the Senate?
Nope. It was a prison psychiatrist who took home an eye popping $838,706, most of it in overtime. I love it! The state drives people insane by sending them to jail, then tries to cure them with triple overtime. It is a wealth destruction mechanism that only a government could come up with.
These are among the revelations uncovered when state controller, John Chang, listed the salaries of all 256,222 state workers on a government website. Only the names were missing. In fact, over 500 state workers earned more than $250,000 a year, vastly more than they could take in with private sector jobs. At least nine made more than $500,000, the top ten taking in $5.8 million.
The data was made public after a huge outcry that followed the disclosure of the salaries of town officials in the small Los Angeles municipality, Bell, which topped $700,000. Those generous paydays resulted in criminal prosecutions. Maybe prosecutors should be casting a wider net?
Thanks, Sacramento!
I often get asked why I never put out ?BUY? recommendations on consumer discretionary stocks. I promptly send them in search of the latest consumer spending figures at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which do not paint a pretty picture (click following link ?http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm).
Since 2008, quarterly spending has come in at a scant 0.5%, the lowest figures since the Great Depression. You can blame deleveraging by the individual. While the government is telling us to spend more to stimulate the economy, we are in fact doing the opposite to put away more cash for a rainy day. They are also taking out an insurance policy against a future financial crash, which could come as early as next year.
You can find this in consumer debt, which saw a zenith of 130% of disposable income as recently as 2007. Today we are back down to 115%, possibly on our way to 70%, the 1970-2000 average. This is also reflected in the savings rate, which has risen from 1.2% in 2005 to 4.9% today, and may hit the long-term average of 8%.
If anything, these numbers are about to worsen dramatically as 80 million baby boomers retire. The over 65 crowd is not exactly known for the big spending, low saving ways, excluding myself.
I always tell people that being a former scientist and math major, I am a numbers guy. Just cut the BS, the spin, the apple and orange comparisons, and the ?independently? financed research, and give me the damn numbers. I can reach my own conclusions, even if you don?t like them.
The figures above are a major part of my own long term forecast for US GDP growth rate of 2.0%-2.5%. Decimating the middle class by shipping 25 million jobs to China assures decades long decline of standards of living. Should you expect anything more? Walmart (WMT) says that it now has a major problem in that its low-end customers are literally running out of money. This is not good for the industries specialized in this area.
Those looking for fodder that the US is coming down with the ?Japan Syndrome? and the two decades of lost economic growth this entails will find fertile ground here. US consumer spending still accounts for 70% of GDP growth. In Japan, it peaked in the late eighties at 20%. So the loss of the consumer will be far more damaging here than it is in the country that is suffering its third decade of flat economic performance.
In stock market terms, this means we may get a little more upside by the end of the year, possibly 70 points in the (SPX), but not much more. Off to a raging bull market we are not. The nimble may be able to profit from this, but for most it will be a snore.
Wake Me Up When the Consumer Returns
Global Market Comments
August 14, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(END OF THE COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE, OR NOT?)
(CU), (DBA), (USO), (FCX), (BHP), (ABX),
?(RIO), (JPM), (GS), (ECH), (EWZ), (IDX)
(BRING BACK THE SMOKE FILLED ROOMS), (SPX), (TBT)
First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
United States Oil (USO)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
BHP Billiton Limited (BHP)
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
Rio Tinto plc (RIO)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
iShares MSCI Chile Capped (ECH)
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ)
Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (IDX)
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
In days of old, when congressional impasses presented themselves, the Speaker of the House, rosy-cheeked Tip O?Neil, would meet his counterpart in the Senate for a night of poker. Several bottles of Scotch later, a deal would get struck, and the two would be photographed together shaking hands the next morning, talking about the good of the country. The process moved on.
That doesn?t happen anymore. Speaker John Boehner is new at the job, and he is learning through trial and error, mostly the latter. He is up against a world-class constitutional law professor. I can?t imagine Boehner playing cards with Harry Reid, Obama, or anyone.
Even if he does come to an agreement, it is unlikely that he can make it stick by getting his own party to follow him. Many of the new junior house members are from the Tea Party, whose understanding of economics, financial markets, and the law making process is shaky at best. In another six months they have to start campaigning again, going to their supporters and financial backers with a list of what they have achieved. It is a very short list.
If Tip O?Neal faced recalcitrant members of his own party, he would threaten a cut off in funding of all pork barrel projects in their district, banish them to the least popular committees, and kill any bill they brought to the floor. But at least if Tip cut a deal, you knew he could deliver the votes. Today, rebellious republicans won?t even take a call from Boehner, who view him with almost as much hostility as they do Obama.
What we are seeing here is sausage making in public, in all its odiferous ugliness. It is negotiation out in the open, never a good idea, especially when both sides believe the other is doing so in bad faith.
All of this leads us to bemoan the passing of the Reagan republicans, who you could work with and get a few laughs along the way. It also means that the volatility that I promised you will be arriving by the boatload in coming months. Watch this space.
Global Market Comments
August 13, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BOND CRASH HAS ONLY JUST STARTED),
($TNX), (TLT), (TBT),
(INDIA VS. CHINA),
(FXI), (PIN), (INP), (TTM)
10-Year Treasury Note ($TNX)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
PowerShares India (PIN)
iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP)
Tata Motors Limited (TTM)
When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks, I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide. Some 35 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China?s white hot growth rate.
My friends at the International Monetary Fund issued a report predicting that India will grow by 6.5% this year. While the country?s total GDP is only a quarter of China?s $6 trillion, its growth could exceed that in the Middle Kingdom as early as 2014.
Many hedge funds believe that India will be the top growing major emerging market for the next 25 years, and are positioning themselves accordingly. Investors are now taking a harder look at the country ETF?s, including India (INP) and China (FXI), which have recently suffered gut churning selloffs.
India certainly has a lot of catching up to do. According to the World Bank, its per capita income is $3,275, compared to $6,800 in China and $46,400 in the US. This is with the two populations close, at 1.3 billion for China and 1.2 billion for India.
But India has a number of advantages that China lacks. To paraphrase hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, you want to aim not where the puck is, but where it?s going to be. The massive infrastructure projects that have powered much of Chinese growth for the past three decades, such as the Three Gorges dam, are missing in India. But financing and construction for huge transportation, power generation, water, and pollution control projects are underway.
A large network of private schools is boosting education levels, enabling the country to capitalize on its English language advantage. When planning the expansion of my own business, I was presented with the choice of hiring a website designer here for $60,000 a year, or in India for $5,000. That?s why booking a ticket on United Airlines or calling technical support at Dell Computer gets you someone in Bangalore.
India is also a huge winner on the demographic front, with one of the lowest ratios of social service demanding retirees in the world. China?s 30-year-old ?one child? policy is going to drive it into a wall in ten years, when the number of retirees starts to outnumber their children.
There is one more issue out there that few are talking about. The reform of the Chinese electoral process at the next People?s Congress could lead to posturing and political instability which the markets could find unsettling. India is the world?s largest democracy, and much of its current prosperity can be traced to wide ranging deregulation and modernization that took place 20 years ago.
I have been a big fan of India for a long time, and not just because they constantly help me fix my computers. In the past, I recommended Tata Motors (TTM), which has since doubled, making it one of my best, all-time single stock picks (click here for ?Take Tata Motors Out for a Spin?). On the next decent dip take a look at the Indian ETF?s (INP), (PIN), and (EPI).
Better to Own This Pyramid
Than This Pyramid
Taxi! Taxi!
Global Market Comments
August 12, 2013
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL MYKONOS ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(HOW THE EURO LOOKS FROM MYKONOS),
(FXE), (EUO), (GREK)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK)
When I sat down at my table at the Namos Restaurant, I was somewhat puzzled by the handful of sand thrown on every table. Are the Greeks as untidy with their food service as they are with their national accounts? Namos is on the south beach of the Greek island of Mykonos, part of the Cyclades chain of ancient fable, and is said to be the hottest nightclub on the island.
From Your Correspondent in Greece
The reason for the sand soon became clear. Shortly thereafter, a gaggle of well-sauced, scantily dressed young ladies climbed on top of my table and started dancing. The sand was there to keep them from slipping. And I found out that the Greek meaning of ?hot? is ?loud?. When my table was cleared of dancers, my lobster dinner was delivered, and a group of partiers jumped up to take a picture of it. Welcome to the Land of Homer, Socrates, and Thucydides!
I told the waitress that she looked just like the girl on the 2,400-year-old vase in the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York. She answered, ?It?s in my DNA.? I replied, ?I bet.? Yes, at nearly 62, I know I?m not supposed to be in places like this. But the inner me still wants to be 26.
The Famous Lobster Dinner
I traveled to this distant island to deliver another one of my Global Strategy Luncheons. I originally put it up in the store as a joke, thinking that no one would want to visit this bankrupt country.? There is rioting in the streets of the capital, hotels going bankrupt and keeping your deposit, credit card companies are denying charges, and Eurail has banned use of their continental passes.
To my shock and surprise, a dozen tickets sold. Several hedge fund managers from Europe planned their summer vacations around the event, bringing their families. Greece is a favorite getaway for Russian oligarchs looking to beat the Moscow heat and humidity. European Community officials in Brussels are always looking for an excuse to get out of town, at government expense. There was even a hedge fund manager from Athens who was coming off of a spectacular 2012, playing the short side in the stocks and bonds of his home country.
As we poured over our hotel menus, no one could find anything to eat. It was all some kind of weird Asian/Greek fusion. I?m talking sushi with eggplant and feta cheese. Then my Russian guest piped up, ?Why don?t we eat on my boat??, ?You can host lunch for 13 at sea, with no notice?? I asked. ?Of course!? he beamed.
A Table for 12 Please
Minutes later, two launches appeared at the dockside to take my somewhat excited and expectant guests out into the Aegean Sea. The ?boat? was actually a battleship, a 150-foot long leviathan with three decks, far too large for our small harbor. A quick bridge tour displayed live satellite links, radar, GPS, and enough electronics to be the envy of the US Navy, plus a Bloomberg terminal which the Squids surely lack.
I love doing these things because I always pick up more insightful market intelligence that I am able to dish out. Before I started my presentation, we took turns going around the table, giving views on local market conditions on everything under the sun and a best shot at an outlook.
The really great discovery of the day was an explanation from my Brussels friends as to why it was impossible for the Germans to leave the European Community and the Euro (FXE), (EUO). If Germany returned to the old Deutschemark, it would overnight become the world?s strongest currency, instantly appreciating 200%-300% against what was left of the Euro. Costs for the countries companies would skyrocket.
To survive, they would have to immediately offshore as much production as possible to the lower waged United States and China. Earnings would go through the roof, but the middle class would get wiped out, especially blue-collar workers. With the jobs would go crucial market intelligence and technical innovation. The Fatherland would get hollowed out, remaining just a listing address for firms that made most of their money abroad. Sound familiar?
That means there is no choice for Germany than to continue with the political, economic, and social unification of the continent. If it has to assume the debts of the precarious southern European countries, it is a bargain at the price.
This is easier said that done. The United States offers no real example. The founding fathers were all white, protestant males from identical cultural backgrounds who spoke the same language and accounted for just 5% of the population. Interstate communication took place via horse and rider, and it took three weeks for a message to get from one end of the country to another.
They eventually huddled together in a hot, steamy room in Philadelphia for months in 1776, and didn?t come out until they created a country (you can see a picture of the edifice on the back of a $100 bill).
Few know that a major impetus for the American Revolution was so American debtors could default on burdensome loans to London banks (again, sound familiar?)
Even then, with minimal military experience among them (George Washington had just three years service in what was then the equivalent of the National Guard, and could qualify for a commission in the British Army) there was less than a 5% chance of the nascent government taking on the combined British Army and Navy and winning. The creation of the US is really an historical accident of the 18th century, and couldn?t be repeated today, even in the US.
Switzerland offers a possible pathway for a European future. There, mutually distrustful and suspicious German, French, Italian, and even Latin speaking cantons eventually worked out a loose confederation. But it took 100 years to accomplish. Financial markets won?t be as patient today.
As the lunch wound down, two leggy blondes appeared at our table with two trays of vodka filled shot glasses. Our host toasted The Mad Hedge Fund Trader enterprise, as well as our future success in the markets. I said ?thank you? with a hearty ?nastrovia,? and the launches ferried is back to shore.
The rest of my week in Mykonos was pretty relaxed. I got up at 6:00 am every morning to check the markets, read my email, and to write. By 2:00 pm I was safely in a beach chair, observing the local wildlife, and frequently taking dips in a turquois blue sea.
In a globalized world, the beach attendants in Greece speak English, Italian, and Russian, reflecting the current makeup of the tourist population. The Africans hawking fake Gucci?s and Rolexes are Tanzanian. The young men and women who wander beach chair to beach chair offering cheap massages are all Chinese.
The American and German students who overran the place when I first came here 45 years ago are largely absent. The Yanks are too broke, and the Germans are all visiting America, which is far cheaper and lacking the prejudice they run into here. Creditors are never popular.
Sticking out like a sore thumb were three senior Chinese strolling the beach wearing white bathrobes. It turns out they were working in Athens to soak up billions in high yield Greek debt on behalf of the Bank of China. They thought Mykonos would make an exotic weekend away from the polluted and tumultuous capital.
One day, my frolicking in the waters earned me a coral cut on my foot. Left untreated, these things can infect very rapidly. So I went to the mini market and bought a half bottle of The Famous Grouse Scotch Whiskey. I poured a small amount on the open sore, and drank the rest. It works every time.
Taking a break from my writing, I explored the medieval downtown of Mykonos, a warren of narrow twisting alleyways squeezed between whitewashed stucco buildings. This was originally a lair for pirates who preyed on Mediterranean shipping 500 years ago.
Today, pirates of a more modern variety storm ashore. Hedge fund managers wielding American Express platinum credit cards disembark from the flotilla of private yachts. The top designer brands are well represented here, and they do a brisk business.
They then retire to the old Venetian quarter for a dinner of moussaka and baklava, to be washed down by local ?Fix? beer. Greek wines have improved a lot in recent decades, and there is a lot to be said for a fine Peloponnesian Chardonnay.
My only near death experience on this leg of the trip was the dubious quadracycle I rented. Apparently, the skills of Greek mechanics leave a lot to be desired, as the rickety machine burned oil, had lousy brakes, and spewed out a plume of noxious, blue smoke. After a few hair-raising hours on the island?s narrow, dilapidated roads facing suicidal, curve passing drivers, I happily returned my ride early.
Testing the skills of the Greek medical community as well was not on my agenda.
Life is good.
I Always Wanted to Ride a Harley
Life is good.
Global Market Comments
August 9, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AMBUSH IN AUSTRALIA),
?(FXA), (FXY), (FXE), (YCS), (NLR), (UNG), (GLD), (DBA),
(REPORT FROM MILAN)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)