My former employer, The Economist, once the ever tolerant editor of my flabby, disjointed, and juvenile prose (Thanks Peter and Marjorie), has released its ?Big Mac? index of international currency valuations.

Although initially launched as a joke three decades ago, I have followed it religiously and found it an amazingly accurate predictor of future economic success. The index counts the cost of McDonald?s (MCD) premium sandwich around the world, ranging from $7.20 in Norway to $1.78 in Argentina, and comes up with a measure of currency under and over valuation.

What are its conclusions today? The Swiss franc (FXF), the Brazilian real, and the Euro (FXE) are overvalued, while the Hong Kong dollar, the Chinese Yuan (CYB), and the Thai Baht are cheap. I couldn?t agree more with many of these conclusions. It?s as if the august weekly publication was tapping The Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader for ideas. I am no longer the frequent consumer of Big Macs that I once was, as my metabolism has slowed to such an extent that in eating one, you might as well tape it to my ass. Better to use it as an economic forecasting tool, than a speedy lunch.

FXF 6-25-13

CYB 6-25-13

FXA 6-25-13

mcdonaldsJapan The Big Mac in Yen is Definitely Not a Buy

Tesla has announced a new battery swapping service that will enable drivers to get a full charge for their all-electric Model S-1 sedans in 90 seconds. The service will be available at strategically located charging stations around the country, and will cost $60, about the cost of an equivalent full tank of gas.

The swap is fully automated. You just drive over a machine and it is all done for you. No crawling under the car on your back is required.

There, owners will have the option of getting a fast charge for free in 45 minutes, or the instant battery swap. Given that the 270-mile range of the car is greater than the range of by bladder, I?ll probably be opting for the former.

The move offers some very interesting long-term implications. It certainly means that Tesla is not worried about the life of its 1,000-pound lithium ion batteries, which cost about $32,000 per vehicle to produce. If the range starts to fade, you just take it in for a swap.

In any case, the company?s mercurial founder and Iron Man model, Elon Musk, has other plans for old, depleted batteries. For a start, they can be used as backup storage devices for solar powered homes wired by his other firm, Solar City (SCTY), a top performing stock of 2013.

In the meantime, Tesla?s shares are impossibly maintaining a stratospheric price of over $100, valuing the company at $11 billion, and making it the number one performing American stock this year. This is despite announcing its first recall for a minor weld holding down the rear seat.

I tell my kids that I rode a time machine ten years into the future, bought the Tesla, and brought it back home to drive them. Ever the wise aleck, my oldest son asked why I didn?t obtain something more valuable, like a sports statistics magazine showing who will win the next ten Super Bowls. Now, that would be useful!

For a video of Elon demonstration the battery swap process last week and a fabulous piece of marketing, please click here. No wonder people are going gaga over this company!

TSLA 6-25-13

SCTY 6-25-13

John Thomas

Tesla

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $209.

The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

Empire State Building

In these frenetic, violent, take no prisoners markets I managed to grab a few precious minutes with Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker.? Jim uses a dozen proprietary short-term technical and momentum indicators to give some much-needed guidance in these trying times.

It?s all about the bond market, says Jim. Sell every rally until proven otherwise. After bottoming this morning at $107.76, the long bond ETF (TLT) could run back up to as high as $113, where it will be a great SELL. Followers of the short bond ETF (TBT) should leap at the chance to reload at $71, down from the recent high of $76.

Making trading particularly treacherous this week will be the unusual number of Fed Open Market Committee members opining on their future policies. Several investment houses put out buy recommendations for bonds this morning. But they are all early. Once traders covered their initial shorts in the fixed income space, they never got back in, as the decline was so precipitous, including myself. That means there is enough firepower on the short side to take us all the way to the 2.90%-3.00% range in yield terms.

Jim doesn?t want to go near stocks here, and believes that broad ranges are setting up that will be good for the next two to three months. We tickled the first support level this morning at 1,562, and the following rally should be sold. We may well test 1,530 and 1,440 below, and bounces from there should be sold as well. Apple (AAPL) has to hold $386 to double bottom. If it does, the long side opportunity there will be huge, as this is close to down half from the all time high. Long term players might even get a double.

Parker doesn?t want to touch gold, or the precious metals, with a ten foot pole. Oil (USO) will test the lower end of a $12 range at $85 that has prevailed for the past year, from $85-$97. Copper (CU) might be double bottoming here at $2.95/pound. If it fails, we could lose another 30-40 cents very quickly. Please excuse the mismatch between the ETF?s and the underlying, but time is short. You?ll just have to extrapolate.

The Mad Day Trader will go on sale as a stand-alone product this coming Monday, July 1, my first major upgrade to your service.

While Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader will exploit money-making opportunities over a ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

As with our existing service, you will receive ticker symbols, entry and exit points, targets, stop losses, and regular real time updates. At the end of each day, a separate short-term model portfolio will be posted on the website.

The new service will generate long and short-selling signals for a range of widely traded exchange traded funds (ETF?s). These include stock indexes (SPY), bonds (TLT), (TBT), foreign exchange (FXY), (FXE), (FXA), commodities (CU), (CORN), energy (USO), (UNG), and precious metals (GLD), (SLV).

There is also a special focus on the leading hot stocks of the day. This will be followed up with a series of educational webinars that will be an important resource for the serious trader.

I have been following Jim?s alerts for the past five years, and his impeccable market timing has become an important part of the ?unfair advantage? that I provide readers. The time has finally come to offer Mad Day Trader as a stand-alone product.

A trading service with this degree of success and sophistication normally costs $20,000 a year. As a client of The Mad Hedge Fund Trader, you can purchase Mad Day Trader alone for $2,000 a year or $699 a quarter. Or you can buy it as a package together with Global Trading Dispatch, which we call Global Trading Dispatch Pro, for $4,000 a year, a 20% discount to the full retail price.

Existing subscribers to Global Trading Dispatch are invited to upgrade their subscription to include both products. Just send an email to Nancy at customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com . Please put ?Mad Day Trader Upgrade? in the subject line.

She will calculate the remaining value of your current subscription and give you a full credit towards the new one-year Global Trading Dispatch Pro subscription. She will then send you instructions on where to send a check. As no two amounts will be the same, our store is unable to handle personalized orders.

SPX 6-21.13

INDU 6-21-13

TBT 6-24-13

UUP 6-21-13

Global Market Comments
June 24, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JUNE 26 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(JULY 12 AMSTERDAM STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE BEST FINANCIAL BOOK EVER),
(A DAY WITH TOM FRIEDMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES)

Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on Friday, July 12, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $229.

The lunch will be held at a downtown Amsterdam hotel near Nieumarkt that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

Amsterdam

I have just finished reading the best financial book ever, and I have read most of them. It is The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. It gives you a great explanation of how the broad sweep of history delivered us to the doorstep of today?s crisis.

Ferguson starts with an ancient accounting system written on clay tablets in Mesopotamia 5,000 years ago, and then takes us through the economic dominance of Greece and Rome. We learn about a medieval Italian diplomat named Fibonacci, who imported advanced mathematical concepts from the Middle East, which we still trade around today. He plots the rise of the great banking dynasties, such as the Medici?s and the Rothschild?s (Jacob was my neighbor in London).

It is also a pot boiling narrative of the great financial scandals, starting with the Mississippi bubble, which wrecked the government of France, the South Sea bubble, where Sir Isaac Newton lost his shirt, to the Ponzi schemes of the 20th century. The story tells us how the financial center of the world has migrated from Babylon to Cairo, Rome, Venice, Amsterdam, London, and eventually ending up in a hedge fund dominated New York.

Ferguson is particularly astute in explaining in layman?s terms the borrowing binge and the exotic, super leveraged derivatives that lead to the current crash. The author finishes with an explanation of how American overconsumption is financed by Chinese saving, and why this can?t last. If you are looking for a single tome which ties it all together, this is it. To obtain preferential pricing in the purchase of this book, please click here.

The Ascent of Money

I took a day off to attend the New York Times Global Forum at San Francisco?s Sony Metreon Center. Their goal was to put together 400 of the most forward thinking and influential minds in the Bay Area, stand back, and see what happened.

It was organized by my old friend, fellow traveler, and veteran journalist, Tom Friedman. Tom and I date back to the old days in Beirut, during their vicious civil war in the early eighties, when working as a journalist meant not knowing if you would wake up the next morning.

Tom worked for the old United Press International, and I for the still prospering Economist. Our mutual friend, the Associated Press?s Terry Anderson, was kidnapped out of his apartment and held hostage by Shiite Hezbollah militants for five years, an ordeal he described in chilling detail in his book, Den of Lions.

You know Tom as the controversial and kibitzing resident of the Times Op-Ed page. He popularized the concepts of globalization and a flat world in a series of groundbreaking, best selling books, including The Lexus and the Olive Tree, Hot, Flat, and Crowded, and That Used To Be Us.

I managed to speak to dozens of guests and gained a fascinating read from many different viewpoints of our long-term future. I shall try to distill what I learned in a few lines without any particular attribution. I am always shopping for a new framework with which to view our rapidly evolving planet, and I was not disappointed.

The merger of globalization and information technology has been the most important development this century. The new hyper connectivity is changing the world at a breakneck speed that few understand.

In the days of old, you needed an entire country to impact the global economy. Then, only a corporation was required, starting with the Dutch East India Company. Now, all it takes is a laptop computer or smart phone with a broadband connection.

Several disparate trends came together during the nineties to enable this revolution. The PC made possible the authoring of content in digital form. The Internet distributed it globally for free. Work flow software allowed the residents of this a potential Tower of Babel to seamlessly talk to other. Google gave us unlimited free search, permitting us to all find each other.

A dozen years ago, 4G was a parking space, Skype was a typo, the cloud was in the sky, Twitter was a sound, Facebook didn?t exist, and big data was a rap group. Today, the collapse of storage costs has ushered in big data and super empowered innovators. High speed Internet is even available at the summit of Mount Everest. If the entire world were a math class, the grading curve has just risen for everyone. ?Average? is officially dead.

When Tom?s predecessor, James Reston, went to the office 30 years ago, he wondered what his seven competitors at the major national newspapers would write that day. Now Tom wonders what his 70 million competitors will write. He is writing for the readers in Chengdu as much as he is writing for the ones in Chicago.

Employment prospects for kids these days are particularly challenging. They have to be innovation ready and not job ready. In fact, the whole concept of a ?job? is rapidly dying out. People have to think like newly landed immigrants: unconnected, hungry, and paranoid, but still optimists.

We need to always be in ?beta? mode, endlessly improving your value added to the global economy. The moment you think you?re finished, you are really finished. A lot of people will tell you how to invest your 401k, but no one will tell you how to invest in yourself. The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is one of the few resources that does this, teaching readers how to prosper in the financial markets independent of the establishment.

The US will not cut or spend its way out of the current economic malaise. It will invent its way out. An accelerating rate of innovation will eventually soak up our current excess workers. America is now the place where everyone around the world comes to launch their moonshot. That is great for business, and explains the tidal wave of new capital pouring into this country. In the meantime, we need to bolster our safety nets, like Medicare and Social Security, as they will be in much greater demand in this independent world.

I will write more about the conference in coming days, with carve outs on specific topics. The outlook for technology is truly unbelievable.

John Thomas with Tom Freidman Two Old Warhorses

Global Market Comments
June 21, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(UPDATED 2013 STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE),
(THE PROBLEM WITH GM), (GM)
(WHY I LOVE/HATE THE OIL COMPANIES), (XOM), (USO),
(THE WORST TRADE IN HISTORY), (AAPL)

General Motors Company (GM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
United States Oil (USO)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store at http://madhedgefundradio.com/ and click on ?LUNCHEONS?.


New York City -
July 2
London, England -
July 8
Amsterdam, Netherlands -
July 12
Berlin, Germany -
July 16
Frankfurt, Germany -
July 19
Portofino, Italy -
July 25
Mykonos, Greece
- August 1
Zermatt, Switzerland - August 9

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