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Hot Tips
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February 26, 2025
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Volatility Index Hits Three-Month High,
at $21.48. The Mad Hedge AI Market Timing Index also hit a six-month low. NASDAQ has given up all 2025 gains. Is it a buying opportunity, or an early recession indicator? Read on….
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Tesla Loses $1 Trillion Market Cap,
in the face of the abandonment of meme stocks by the market and a European customer boycott. The stock is now down 40% from its December high. Where is Elon? Fears of collapsing Q1 sales and the loss of the China market are running rampant.
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Home Prices are Still Rising,
according to the S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index. House prices rose 0.4%. They increased 4.7% in the 12 months through December. The strong increase in prices was despite the rising housing supply, which is being driven by ebbing demand amid higher mortgage rates. New York showed the biggest gain at 7.2% YOY, followed by Chicago at 6.6% and Boston at 6.35%. Washington DC was the only city showing a loss at -1.1%.
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New Home Sales Fall,
to 657,000 because of high mortgage rates, bad weather, and wildfire fears. The average price of a new home sales was $446,300, up 3.7% YOY. Supply is up to nine months. All the homebuilders sold off on the news. Avoid (DHI), (KBH), and (TOL).
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Copper Imports Under Investigation,
with the shares of the world’s largest producer approaching an 18-month low. Trump, looking to thwart what his advisers see as a move by China to dominate the global copper market, signed an order at the White House directing the Commerce Secretary to start a national security probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. That is the same law Trump used in his first term to impose 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum. Most copper brought into the US is from Phoenix, AZ-based Freeport McMoRan (FCX)’s foreign mines.
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February 25, 2025
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Consumer Confidence Collapses to a Four-Year Low,
down 7 points to 98, as tariff-driven inflation fears ramp up. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February released Tuesday morning fell to 98.3, falling for the third-straight month and marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Technology stocks sold off hard. Bonds are starting to discount a recession.
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Microsoft is Cancelling Data Center Leases.
It suggest the company may have pushed too aggressively in building AI infrastructure both domestically and abroad. Does this point to a slowdown in AI growth?
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Tesla is in Free Fall,
down 40% in less than three months. European sales are down a staggering 50%. It looks like Q1 deliveries are going to miss by a mile. The company is now leaderless. Sell all (TSLA) rallies.
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These are the Three Most Crowded Trades by Hedge Funds,
Avis (CAR) 55% owned, Loan Holdings (LOAN), and Howard Hughes (HHH). Crowded trades come with the risk of overvaluation and increased volatility as it may be more difficult to attract the marginal investor, while avoiding overcrowded stocks can provide investors with an opportunity to capture unrecognized value when paired with strong fundamentals,
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Mad Hedge Market Timing Index Collapses to 21,
and is approaching “Extreme Buy” territory. We are at the August lows.
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February 24, 2025
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Berkshire Hathaway Builds Record Cash,
at $334 billion, up $9 billion in December alone. The Oracle of Omaha has been selling huge chunks of Apple (AAPL) and Bank of America (BAC) and putting the money into US Treasury Bills. Warren earned an eye-popping $47 billion in 2024, up 27% YOY. A price-earnings multiple at a record 25X for the S&P 500. If Warren Buffet is selling, should you be buying?
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Jamie Dimon Sells 33% of JP Morgan Stock,
yet another indicator of a market top. Jamie is famous for loading up on (JPM) at the absolute market bottom in 2009. Does he know something we don’t? Banks have been the lead sector in the market since the summer.
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SEC Drops All Investigations of Robinhood (HOOD).
The firm had been under multiple investigations for securities fraud and failure to disclose. It’s now open season on the retail customers.
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Existing Homes Sales Crater,
on a closing contract basis, down 4.9% in January to 4.09 million units. Terrible weather was a factor. Inventories are up 17% YOY and 3.5% on the month. All cash sales hit 29%. The average price of a home is at an all-time high at $396,800, up 4.5% YOY.
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Amazon Buys James Bond,
from the Broccoli family, who have been producing the series in England since 1962. That may be why they killed off Daniel Craig in the last Bond film, “No Time to Die”, to give any buyers a clean slate. Will the next Bond be a woman?
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February 20, 2025
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Washington DC Economy is in Recession.
Unemployment claims are up 400% YOU, home prices are down 10%, and the commute is noticeably lighter. Condition will get much worse before it gets better. Will it spread to the rest of the country? A lot of rural states are far more dependent on Washington than they realize. Alaska, Montana, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Kentucky are the top six per capita recipients of federal government money. Four out of five voted for Trump in 2024. California and Vermont received the least.
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Goldman Sachs Gets Whacked,
down $25, or 3.9%, along with the rest of the financial sector. The new administration has decided to continue with Biden’s ultra-tough mergers & acquisitions policy, which is pro-consumer and anti-monopoly. (GS) is still a great company and the deregulation story still applies, but the bloom is off the rose.
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Cruise Line Shares Get Sunk,
which big losses in (CCL) and (RCL). The New Commerce Secretary indicated that their tax-free status may end. The ships are registered in Bermuda and employ all-foreign crews buy almost all of the passengers and revenues come from the US.
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Walmart Gets Crushed,
with the shares down 7%. Nobody wants to take the risk that tariffs get implemented where (WMT) would take the biggest hit.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Jump 5,000,
to 219,000. A big surge is coming from newly laid-off government workers.
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February 18, 2025
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Goldman Boosts Gold Forecast,
to $3,100 per ounce, up from $2,890 previously. Spot gold gained on Tuesday after hitting a record high at $2,942.70 per ounce on February 11. Bullion has hit eight record highs so far this year and is up 11% so far on an annual basis. Buy (GLD) on dips.
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Homebuilders are Panicking Over Tariff Prospects.
Sentiment among the nation’s single-family homebuilders dropped to the lowest level in five months in February. The drop was largely due to concern over tariffs, which would raise homebuilder costs significantly. Sales expectations in the next six months took a major hit in the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index.
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Silver is Catching Up with Gold,
which hit a new all-time high weeks ago. Usually, silver outperforms gold by 2:1. But Chinese savers are after the yellow metal, not the white one, as are central banks. Silver depends more on industrial uses and alternative energy, while is seeing all subsidies eliminated. Buy (GLD) over (SLV).
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Airbnb Shares Jump 13% on Earnings Beat.
Travel companies have been helped by healthy demand in Asia, especially from Chinese consumers visiting destinations in Southeast Asia. Airbnb said that nights booked by outbound Chinese tourists rose 25% in the fourth quarter. It also saw a 30% growth in nights booked for domestic travel in Latin America, led by Brazil, compared to last year. First-time bookers in the region grew by nearly 15% sequentially. Keep in mind that my home away from home only posts positive reviews of its properties and deletes the negative ones. It’s amazing how much you can dress up a slum property with good pictures.
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Intel Gained 11%
on speculation that the iconic chipmaker could be broken up in a deal involving Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) and Broadcom (AVGO). (TSMC) might operate Intel’s US factories and own a controlling stake in the venture. Broadcom may make a bid for Intel’s chip-design and marketing business. Avoid. Leave this one to the risk-ab boys.
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