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Hot Tips
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PPI Skyrockets to a Four-Year High.
US wholesale inflation accelerated in April to the fastest pace since 2022 on a war-driven increase in energy prices that’s feeding into higher freight transportation costs. The Producer Price Index rose 6% from a year ago, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out on Wednesday. A core measure of wholesale inflation that excludes food and energy increased 5.2% from April 2025, the biggest advance in more than three years.
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Canadian Visitors to the US Fell 42% in 2025,
according to the University of Toronto, using phone data. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, took the biggest hit with a 65% hit. The Trump presidency was to blame. The entire travel industry is suffering.
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Nuclear Energy is Booming.
New reactors with new designs mean new uranium mines and new production. The nuclear supply chain is expanding due to factors like geopolitics, geology, and artificial intelligence, with new uranium mines and factories being developed to meet growing energy needs. Buy (CCJ) and (VSTR) on dips.
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US Dollar Jumps,
on the red-hot PPI, which will certainly lead to higher interest rates. The Euro has dropped to $1.17 to the US dollar. With inflation now officially out of control, expect high interest rates and a US dollar rally. Finally, I can afford my Europe trip.
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OPEC Oil Production Falls 30%,
the cartel said in its latest monthly update on Wednesday. OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026 to around 1.2 million barrels per day, down from about 1.4 million bpd previously. Global demand is facing constraints because supply from the Persian Gulf has been effectively cut off by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April after output plunged by 7.9 million bpd in March. In total, production among OPEC members has fallen more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd, during the war.
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Inflation Comes in Red Hot.
US inflation accelerated in April on rising gasoline and grocery costs, exceeding wage growth in a double whammy for already strained consumers. The consumer price index rose 3.8% from a year earlier, up from 3.2%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday, the most since 2023. After adjusting for inflation, wages fell for the first time in three years. Bonds (TLT) were crushed.
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CME to Create Futures Market for Computing Power Backing AI.
Definitely buy the dip here. The futures will help traders, financial firms, AI builders, and cloud providers manage volatility and price swings, according to a statement on Tuesday. Indexes from market-intelligence firm Silicon Data will help underpin the products. The project is still pending regulatory review. Computing power, also known as compute, has been in high demand as AI companies use it to power their systems.
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Tesla Ramps Up Berlin Battery Production.
By almost $250 million, boosting its capacity target for the site, the company said on Tuesday. Tesla announced in December investments amounting to almost 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) at the site in Gruenheide, southeast of the German capital, as it seeks to bring battery cell and vehicle production all under one roof from next year. The EV business is on the mend!
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Oil Leaps $5,
topping $102 a barrel, as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran over a proposal to end the Iran War pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight. Brent crude futures gained $3.34, or 3.21%, to $107.55 a barrel by 1314 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $3.18, or 3.24%, at $101.25. Both benchmarks climbed nearly 3% on Monday.
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Bonds Get Trashed,
on the CPI print, taking ten-year yields up to 4.45% and prices down to nine-month lows. Accelerating inflation will make matters worse. And of course, everyone is ignoring the 800-pound gorilla in the room, soaring National Debt, now at $39 trillion.
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Consumer Confidence Hits New All-Time Low.
Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to a University of Michigan survey on Friday. The school's closely watched survey posted a 48.2 preliminary reading, down 3.2% from April's prior record swoon and off 7.7% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 49.7.
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Existing Homes Sales Rise a Feeble 0.2% in April.
Month-over-month sales increased in the Midwest and South, were unchanged in the Northeast, and declined in the West. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose in the South, were flat in the West, and fell in both the Northeast and Midwest. First-time buyers' share of sales falls to 33%, below the robust market threshold. High-end homes outperform, reflecting a K-shaped economy and stock market gains
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EV Sales are Booming in Europe,
thanks to sky-high $10 a gallon gasoline prices. Demand for affordable electric vehicles is soaring in Europe as the fuel price increases caused by the Middle East conflict spur lower-income households to go green. Inquiries about EVs costing less than €30,000 ($35,000) on Mobile.de, Germany’s largest car marketplace, have jumped 87% since the start of March, led by models like Renault's Zoe. That’s outstripping a 77% rise in inquiries about all EVs, regardless of price. In the UK, inquiries about EVs between five and seven years old tripled in April from a year earlier, well ahead of newer, more expensive electric cars, according to data from Auto Trader, the country’s largest marketplace.
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U.S. senators are set to consider long-awaited Crypto Legislation
that would create a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency on Thursday, potentially ending a deadlock over the bill that pitted crypto companies against U.S. banks. The bill, dubbed the Clarity Act, would, if signed into law, clarify financial regulators' jurisdiction over the burgeoning sector, potentially boosting digital asset adoption. Buy (MSTR) on dips.
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US Beef Prices are Soaring.
The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its lowest level in 75 years, and beef prices continue to climb. Expectations for increased beef imports from Brazil weighed on U.S. cattle futures after Trump met Brazilian President Inacio Lula da Silva last week. On Monday, Chicago Mercantile Exchange June live cattle futures shook off early losses to end slightly higher, while August feeder cattle dropped 0.5%.
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Nonfarm Payroll Jumps to 115,000 in April,
higher than expected, but half of what it was two years ago. The “No hire, no fire” economy continues. The headline unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. The report showcases a labor market that may be gaining momentum after zero job growth last year. It showed hiring advanced across a variety of sectors and follows other data indicating layoff activity remains low.
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Trump 10% Global Tariffs Ruled Illegal
by the International Court of Trade under section 122. All tariffs collected up to now must be refunded. Good luck with that. The government has been stonewalling refund requests at every opportunity, including those from 35 million small businesses. The court ruled that the president has no inherent authority to impose tariffs.
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U.S. construction spending rebounded in March,
boosted by a surge in single-family homebuilding, but higher mortgage rates could limit further gains. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday that construction spending rose 0.6% after falling 0.2% in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending would rise 0.2% in March.
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Coinbase Gets Killed,
taking the shares down 5%. The company is not used to living in someone else’s shadow, currently, semiconductor stocks. Coinbase posted lower-than-expected results for the first quarter as crypto prices fell, weighing on one of the company's major revenue drivers — spot trading in digital assets. The company, which operates the largest cryptocurrency marketplace in the U.S., posted transaction revenue of $755.8 million versus $805.2 million expected by analysts. Subscription revenue came in at $583.5 million versus $619.3 million expected.
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Airbnb Beats,
where I basically live all year. Revenue grew 18% during the quarter from $2.27 billion last year. Net income increased to $160 million, or 26 cents per share, from $154 million, or 24 cents per share, last year. For the current quarter, Airbnb issued an upbeat forecast, calling for revenue between $3.54 billion and $3.60 billion. Analysts expected $3.46 billion in revenue. The company lifted revenue guidance for the year to "low to mid-teens" growth from a 12% forecast.
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Oil Soars $10,
on a re-escalation of the Iran War, with Saudi Arabia opening up military bases for American use left over from the Gulf Wars. The only reason the US would want to do that was if it were planning a ground invasion of Iran. The last time we were there in force was during Desert Storm in 1991, when the US had 500,000 troops in Saudi Arabia. I remember because I was one of them. The US may not actually be planning an invasion of Iran, it may be just trying to scare them into a deal. But today, the oil market thinks otherwise.
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Consumers are Running Out of Money,
thanks to soaring gas prices, the national average is now topping $4.50. It will be higher next week. Executives are worried about US shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Rising fuel costs are impacting low-income consumers who are dipping into savings and have less money for discretionary spending like eating out. Americans are putting less away in savings and may change their spending patterns to balance their budgets if gas prices stay high.
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ADP Rises by 109,000.
Private sector job creation was stronger than expected in April, providing more evidence of a stable labor market and less incentive for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates amid persistently higher inflation, ADP reported Wednesday. The payroll processing firm said companies added 109,000 jobs for the month, a step up from the 61,000 created in March and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 84,000. April's gains were the best for the ADP count since January 2025. The March total was revised down by 1,000. Wages for those staying in their jobs rose 4.4% annually, down 0.1 percentage point.
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Citibank’s ROI is Soaring.
Citigroup laid out stronger profitability targets for the next two years at its investor day on Thursday, as CEO Jane Fraser spearheads a company-wide overhaul to drive growth. Six years into her tenure, Fraser is heading her second investor day to present the results of a massive reorganization that shrank Citi by selling retail businesses worldwide, eliminating management layers, and increasing risk and controls. They also announced a $30 billion share buyback program. Buy (C) on dips.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Rise 10,000 to 200,000.
The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 189,000 to 190,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,250, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 207,500 to 207,750.
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