Archive
Hot Tips
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October 10, 2025
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Trump China Trade Threats Tank Markets,
in response to their rare earth export restrictions that sent prices soaring yesterday. China has also cut US soybean purchases this year from $12 billion to zero. Trump is threatening massive retaliation, which took the S&P 500 down 2% in minutes and the Dow Average down 900. The Volatility Index ($VIX) soared by 40% to $22.5 in seconds. Gold jumped. Like all geopolitical shocks, this will be short-term and is a great buying opportunity. Buy the dip in everything. You play with fire, you get burned. Trump can’t afford another “Liberation Day” and the 20% stock market decline it brought. Buy everything that was winning until this morning.
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I Sold All my Gold and Silver at the All-Time High on Wednesday.
The rally up until then exactly matched the size of the rally in the spring, or $500 an ounce, a great time to take profits. Gold ETF inflows hit a one-month low of only $2 billion. Looking to get back in on a 5% correction with more in-the-money call spreads, so the time decay is working for me in case we get another multi-month flat line like we did for four months during April to August. My medium-term target is still $5,000.
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September Consumer Price Index to be Released on October 24,
after the Bureau of Labor Statistics staff were called back from the government shutdown. The BLS is currently leaderless. The Fed is now flying blind, and the government doesn’t want to do anything to delay the next interest rate cut on October 28.
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U.S. Consumer Sentiment was Steady in October,
according to the University of Michigan. Households are appearing to shrug off a partial shutdown of the government, though worries about the labor market and inflation lingered. The Surveys of Consumers on Friday noted that pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers' minds. Interviews with respondents showed little evidence that the shutdown has moved consumers' views of the economy thus far.
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María Corina Machado Wins the Nobel Peace Prize,
not the US president. In a post on social media, Machado dedicated the prize to the Venezuelan people. Machado is the opposition leader in Venezuela, where the US has been conducting an undeclared naval war. White House spokespeople didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
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October 9, 2025
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Fed Minutes Tank Financials,
and all other interest rate-sensitive sectors, indicating that several members voted against an interest rate cut in September. The minutes from the September 16-17 meeting showed that steadily rising inflation, which may accelerate in the months ahead, was the main concern. Several members voted against a rate cut back then. No rate cut at the upcoming October 28-29 meeting might finally give stocks a long-needed correction. That’s why all of my current options positions expire on October 17. Buy all financials on this dip.
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Glencore Gets a $394 Million Copper Subsidy,
from the Australian government to keep operating its Mt. Isa smelter and Townsville mine. Mt Isa is the only copper smelter in the country and is essential for solar panels, wind turbines, and the growth of the power grid. The goal is to reduce reliance on copper imports from China during the coming copper boom.
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Rare Earth Prices Soar on China Supply Clampdown,
fueling market speculation that the Trump administration will move more aggressively to invest in building out a domestic supply chain. Ramco Resources (METC) soared 12%, Energy Fuels (UUUU) surged nearly 8%, USA Rare Earth (USAR) jumped more than 7%, and MP Materials (MP) rallied more than 6%. Most affected are the supplies of Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Europium, and Ytterbium. China supplies 90% of the world’s rare earth magnets, essential for most electronics applications. Every trade war comes with a high price.
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Copper Prices Hit a New High,
as I expected. Copper prices hit $11,000 per metric ton on Thursday, a level not seen in over 16 months, as widespread disruption at mines sparks fears of a shortage of supply and attracts speculative inflows. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.1% to hit the $11,000 mark, within striking distance of its all-time high of $11,104.50 set in May 2024, before pulling back to $10,970. The golden age of copper is here. Buy (FCX) on dips, the world’s largest producer.
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U.S. Imports of Containerized Goods in September Plunge 8.4%,
from the year earlier, including a 22.9% drop in goods from China. It’s another sign of a shrinking US economy. U.S. seaports handled 2.31 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container cargo last month, the third-highest September volume on record despite a decline from last year.
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October 7, 2025
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The Jobs Crash Tanks Stocks.
Wall Street's main indexes declined on Tuesday after a report from the New York Federal Reserve highlighted worries over the job market, halting a rally that had pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record closing highs a day earlier. Private sources at the Carlyle Group suggest that only 17,000 jobs were gained in September.
After seven days of a government shutdown in the U.S. hindering key data releases, the September report from the NY Fed showed that the expected level of inflation a year from then was 3.4%, compared with 3.2% in August.
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Did Gold Peak Today?
Technical analysts warn that the barbarous relic may face upside resistance at $4,000 an ounce, which is based on today's price. I just sold everything I had for a short-term trade, but am looking to buy a dipette. Mutual funds that invest in gold mining firms are leading 2025 performance, overtaking even high-flying AI and tech funds, as investors bet record gold prices will drive strong margins, cash flows, and shareholder returns. Gold is telling us that inflation is much worse than you think.
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Airbus Tops Boeing as the Most Delivered Jet in History.
The Airbus A320 family of planes overtook the Boeing (BA) 737. Boeing's decades-old record fell with the handover of an A320 model overnight to Saudi carrier Flynas, bringing total deliveries to 12,260 since the A320 series entered service in 1988. A few years of bad management cost (BA) mightily, but they are on the recovery road now.
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(JNJ) Hit with $966 Million over the Talcum Powder Case,
which has been going on forever. The family of Mae Moore, who died in 2021, sued the company the same year, claiming Johnson & Johnson's talc baby powder products contained asbestos fibers that caused her rare cancer. Time to move on.
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Investors are Pouring Back into the Housing Market.
Real estate investors, both individual and institutional, bought one-third of all single-family residential properties sold in the second quarter of 2025. That is an increase from 27% in the first quarter, and the highest percentage in the last five years. Investors accounted for 25.7% of residential home sales in 2024. The bull market in housing is back!
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October 6, 2025
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AMD Soars 30% on Open AI’s Purchase of a 10% Stake.
OpenAI will deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD's Instinct graphics processing units over multiple years and across multiple generations of hardware, the companies said Monday. It will kick off with an initial 1-gigawatt rollout of chips in the second half of 2026. Buy (AMD) on dips.
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Fifth Third Buys Comerica for $10.9 Billion.
I warned you that a transaction like this was headed our way in my September 15 letter. Regional lenders have outperformed large banks, but both have lagged the S&P 500 since the Pandemic. There have been 118 regional bank mergers so far this year, worth $23 billion compared to 500 in 1998. Bank analysts cite the following as cash cows ripe for takeover: Prime targets include Salt Lake City-based Zions Bancorp (ZION), Maryland’s Eagle Bancorp (EGBN), Texas-based First Foundation (FFWN), and Tulsa-based BOK Financial (BOKF).
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Nikkei Soars 5% on Election Result,
with the country’s first female prime minister winning the election. The Japanese Yen fell sharply. PM Takaichi supports more fiscal and monetary stimulus, with the latter punching up against the BoJ’s desire to continue to raise interest rates, albeit slowly, and the elevated inflation in the country.
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Tesla Hints at Low-End Roadster,
which Elon Musk has been talking about for a decade, taking the shares up $16. Musk has a history of promising things that are either not delivered or take substantially longer than he initially says. For investors, a mass-market model is seen as key to revitalizing Tesla's sales. While Tesla reported a jump in auto deliveries in the third quarter of the year, this was attributed to a pull forward in demand due to the expiration of a federal tax credit.
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Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High,
as the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value continued to benefit from strong demand from investors. The rally in bitcoin since the start of the year has been underpinned by flows from institutional investors, friendlier policies of the administration, and an increasing connection with global financial systems. Bitcoin climbed above $125,000 for the first time on Sunday, rising to $125,653.32. It was last up 1.88% to $125,081.85, on course for the second straight session of gains. It has gained more than 33% this year.
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October 3, 2025
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Gold to Top $4,000 by Year-End,
says HSBC. Central bank, ETF, and retail buying of the only truly safe asset continues unabated. This time, they are all trying to front-run flooding of the money supply by the US government in 2026.
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Soybean Farmers are Going Broke,
after China canceled all orders, the world’s largest buyer. It is the bitter fruit of the trade war. Cries for welfare payments from farmers from Washington are rising, causing the National Debt to ratchet up further.
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Oil is Headed for New Lows,
after OPEC+ moves to increase production at their meeting this weekend. Russia needs to fund the war, and Saudi Arabia needs to fund a lavish lifestyle. Saudi Arabia would prefer to see double, triple, or even quadruple that figure - 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd, or 548,000 bpd, respectively, as it has the ability to ramp up production quickly and wants to grow market share.
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Visibility has Become Invisible,
with the complete disappearance of government economic data. You’re just going to have to close your eyes and buy. Private data, and independent news sources like Mad Hedge Fund Trader have never been more valuable. By the way, the private data universally show that the US economy is worsening.
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Buy Freeport McMoRan,
says UBS. The Indonesian flood is a temporary setback. The investment bank upgraded Freeport (FCX) to buy from neutral in a report out Thursday, raising its 12-month price target on the stock to $48 from $42.50, implying more than 23% upside from Thursday’s close. The stock is up 13% since my LEAPS recommendation weeks ago.
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