Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 28, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Bond Market Says the Recession is Already Here, with ten-year interest rates at 2.27%, a new 2019 low. German bunds hit negative -0.16%. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond says the trade war could cause real damage to the US economy. Click here.

2) The Bear Market in Home Prices Continues, in March, with the Case Shiller CoreLogic National Home Price Index showing a 3.7% annual price gain, down 0.2%. Home price in San Francisco is posting negative numbers. When will those low-interest rates kick in? Click here.

3) US Capital Goods Fall Out of Bed, in April, down 0.9%, in another important pre-recession indicator. No company with sentient management wants to expand capacity ahead of an economic slowdown. Click here.

4) From Red State to Welfare State, and from farmer to ward of the state. The administration’s $16 billion bailout of the farm states won’t cover a fraction of the damage the trade war has done. Farmers are switching crops not to meet demand but to gain the maximum government payouts. Most would rather work for living and prefer free trade. Click here.

5) Heard at SALT. Decentralization is the next big trend in technology. To move out of Silicon Valley into the rest of the country, you only need a laptop and a broadband connection to start up a new company. Costs are cheaper, and staff is available. That’s what Mark Cuban told me.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

SPECIAL MEMORIAL DAY ISSUE

(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR HERE COMES THE HEAD AND SHOULDS TOP)
(CHINA’S RARE EARTH WEAPON)

(TSLA), (AAPL), (LMT), (BAESY), (RTN)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 23, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Tech Cold War is Dominating Trading, triggering a global stock market route. The bond market, at two-year highs, says the recession is already here. If you didn’t make your money in Q1, you’re screwed. In the cruelest move, China blocked the broadcast of the final episode of Game of Thrones, forcing fanatics to search the Internet for the final conclusion. Click here.

2) The Fed is Patient, and indefinitely so. That is the revelation coming out of yesterday’s Fed minutes. That means the next rate move will be a cut more likely than a hike, and this is BEFORE the trade war saw a major escalation. Watch bond yields (TLT) fall to new lows. Click here.

3) No China Meetings for at Least a Month, says US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Don’t expect any respite from this front. It seems preventing Trump’s tax returns from being released is taking up all his time. Also, the US government runs out of money at summer’s end, unless the Democratic-controlled House opens up the checkbook first. Click here.

4) New Homes Sales Down 6.9% in April. As in past cycles, they are seeing the recession first, despite ultra-low interest rates. Prices here still rising, thanks to trade war-induced rocketing materials and lumber costs. Click here.

5) Heard at SALT. US Consumer Debt Service is only 10% of disposable income. That is reasonably low and may suggest that we may have longer to go until the next recession. Consumer Spending accounts for a gargantuan 70% of the US economy.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(TUESDAY, JUNE 25 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

(DINING WITH THE BOTTOM 20%)

 (ANOTHER 5G PLAY TO LOOK AT)

(EQIX), (CSCO), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (ORCL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 21, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Tesla Breaks $200, as fears of Chinese boycotts chop earnings forecasts. Another autonomous driving death in Florida didn’t help either. $180 here we come. Stay out of the way for now, but a generational “BUY” is setting up here. Expect a monster rally on a trade war resolution. They still own the future, but how much will you pay today? Click here.

2) US to Grant Huawei Parts Exemptions on a Case by Case Basis, giving some market reprieve day. Here, political connections are everything, but the paperwork demands are enormous. Tech rebounds. Click here.

3) Some 90% of the Net Buying in the Market Now is Buy Back, shrinking the float of available shares by 4% this year, and more than 10% for single stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Oracle (ORCL). Buy ALL of the buyback stocks on dips. Click here.

4) Trade War Hits Home Depot, and poor weather kept handymen at home. Stocks get hot. Here’s another chance to buy quality at a discount. Buy (HD) on dips. Click here.

5) Remember Rare Earths? We made a killing during the bubble eight years ago in metals like Europium and Niobium. China accounts for 98% of the global supply which are essential for most electronic parts and essential for defense. Buy the (VMX). Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(TUESDAY JULY 2 NEW DELHI INDIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

(REPORT FROM THE 2019 LAS VEGAS SALT CONFERENCE)

(HUAWEI HITS THE FAN)

(HUAWEI), (MU), (NVDA), (GOOGL), (FB), (TWTR), (APPL)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 17, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The China Tariffs Deliver the Largest Tax Increase in History, according to US Treasury figures. With Walmart (WMT) already issuing warnings, we should sit up and take notice. Click here.

2) April Housing Starts to Jump, up 5.7%. Permits are also up 0.5%. With the 30-year fixed rate loan down to 2.12%, low rates are having their desired effect. On the other hand, Chinese tariffs are driving costs through the roof. Click here.

3) Wall Street Slammed by Trade Fears. Stocks made back exactly half of their May loss, then faded. I covered my short in bonds for a small profit. The bond market seems to be expecting a recession. Click here.

4) Atlanta Fed Axes Growth Prospects, for Q2, from 3.2% to 1.1%. This trade war is getting expensive. No wonder stocks have been in a swan dive. Click here.

5) Heard at SALT. Don’t put your DNA on the web. Not only will you be denied health insurance, so will all of your future decedents.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch:

(MAY 15 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (LMT), (XLV), (EWG), (VIX), (VXX), (BA), (TSLA), (UBER), (LYFT),

(ADBE),

(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, MAY 17 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),

(INTU)

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
May 15, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Mark Cuban’s Biggest Positions are Netflix and Amazon. Maybe yours should be too. The billionaire has an uncanny ability to call the long-term direction of technology. Click here.

2) Drones are Attacking Saudi Oil Fields. A classic case of technology turning back to bite you, used by a 14th-century society. Buy oil (USO) on the dips as geopolitical risk ramps up. Click here.

3) US Birthrate Falls to 32-Year low, only 3.79 million in 2018, and 2% down from the previous year. They’re not making Americans anymore. We all know this leads to depressions. Look what happened to Japan. Click here.

4) The US is Evacuating its Embassy in Baghdad, in the usual prelude to war. But oil is focused more on the coming recession today. Click here.

5) US Retail Sales Crater, in March while Industrial Production is off 0.5%. Why is the data suddenly turning recessionary? It isn’t even reflecting the heightened trade war yet. Click here.

 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(SPECIAL CHINA ISSUE)

(WHY CHINA IS DRIVING UP THE VALUE OF YOUR TECH STOCKS)

(QCOM), (AVGO), (AMD), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (AAPL), (INTC), (LSCC)

(TRUE COST OF THE CHINA TRADE WAR)

(EXPE), (TRIP), (GOOGL), (CTRP)