Hot Tips Archives

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 8, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) China Trade Talks Hit the Skids, taking stock market down with it as an administration official concedes they are “nowhere close to a deal” with the deadline 3 weeks off. Trump desperately needs a deal, while the Chinese don’t who think they can do better under the next president. If you disagree with this view in China, your organs get harvested and sold on the open market.

2) The European Economy is Also Going Down the Drain, with the EC’s forecast of economic growth cut from 1.9% to 1.3%. The US-China trade war is cited as a major factor. The global synchronizes slowdown accelerates. Looks like they’ll have more time to drink cheap wine and smoke Gauloises. Click here.

3) Barbie Rocks, boosting sales at Mattel (MAT) and delivering a 33% pop in the stock. Wouldn’t touch this sector on pain of death. Kids' tastes are wildly unpredictable. Just ask mine. Click here.

4) Apple is the World’s Largest Company Once Again, eclipsing Amazon (AMZN) with a market capitalization topping $810 billion. Expect these two and Microsoft (MSFT) to keep trading places in the coming year, but Amazon will eventually win out if Jeff can only put his personal life on hold. Click here.

5) Goodbye to the 747, as the once mainstay of international travel struggles to hang on as a cargo plane. When I saw the first test flight in Everette, WA in 1969, no one could believe it got off the ground. It turns out that two engines are much cheaper to run than four and there have been huge strides made in composite materials. I’ll miss the grand piano on the first class second floor. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(FEBRUARY 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(TLT), (FXA), (NVDA), (SPY), (IEUR),

(VIX), (UUP), (FXE), (AMD), (MU), (SOYB)

February 8, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 7, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 7, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Biggest Bank Takeover in a Decade, hits the tape with BB&T (BBT) buying SunTrust (STI) for $28 billion, a 7% premium. This is another chip away at the massive overbanking of the US. The US still has 5,000 banks while Australia gets by with four. Click here.

2) Video Game Stocks Get Destroyed, as privately held Epic Games’ Fortnight sucks all the oxygen out of the room. Yes, $250 million a month in competing sales can wipe out your entire business. Electronic Arts (EA) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) are banging on the basement door. If you wonder where your kids have disappeared to, they’re all playing Fortnight online. Click here.

3) Another Nail in the Bitcoin Coffin. A major crypto exchange files for bankruptcy protection when the founder died and took all the passwords with him. Quadriga CX is now in liquidation in Canada and investors are likely to get stiffed for $140 million. I know it’s not Bitcoin, but it’s hardly a ringing endorsement for the sector. Click here.

4) Farm Sector Bankruptcies are Soaring, hitting a decade high. Apparently, the trade wars and global warming aren’t working for them. Ironically, ag prices are about to take off to the upside when a Chinese trade deal gets done. Buy the ags for a trade. Click here.

5) Tesla Cuts Prices Again, in a blatant bid for market share and global domination. The low-end Tesla 3 price drops to $42,900. Next stop $35,000. Too bad they laid off my customer support personel to cut costs. I can’t find my AM radio. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHAT TO BUY AT MARKET TOPS?),

(CAT), ($COPPER), (FCX), (BHP), (RIO),

(EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY),

(TESTIMONIAL)

(THE DEATH OF THE COLLEGE DEGREE),

(GOOGL), (IBM), (AAPL), (BABA), (BIDU)

February 7, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 6, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 6, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Volatility Index (VIX) Hits $15. The market is more overbought than any time since July. Is the “fear gauge” signaling that happy days are here again? I doubt it. Don’t whistle past the graveyard. Click here.

2) The Mad Hedge Market Timing Index is Entering Danger Territory, with a reading of 67 for the first time in five months. Better start taking profits on those aggressive leveraged longs you bought in early January. Your best performers are about to take a big hit. Click here.

3) Australian Dollar Crashes on Rate Fears. You mean the Reserve Bank of Australia might actually raise rates? Better pay for that American vacation now! This should prick the property bubble big time. Click here.

4) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Craters, to 56.7. Should we be worried? Hell, yes! Why are we getting so many negative data points and stocks keep rising? Click here.

5) Snow Hits San Francisco for the First Time in Two Decades, with temperatures plunging into the mid-twenties. Is Global warming really global weirding? It is 120 degrees in Australia today.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING IN 2019)

(ALPHABET WOWS THEM AGAIN),

(GOOGL), (AMZN), (AAPL), (MSFT)

February 6, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 5, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 5, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Last FANG Reports, with Alphabet (GOOGL) surprising to the upside. Ad sales and earnings beat, but the stock sells off anyway. Will this be that last earnings surprise to drive the market? Click here.

2) Talking of Banning Share Buybacks is Rising. Blamed as a major cause of income inequality, far left Dems want to ban this highly lucrative practice. The stock market and the stock-owning half of the country hate the prospect, so it will never happen. Click here.

3) The Bond King Retires, with Bill Gross leaving Janus Henderson at the age of 75. Bill and I both worked our way through college card counting at blackjack in Las Vegas before the casinos knew what it was. Bill was never able to match his legendary PIMCO performance at Janus citing difficulties in the bond market. As a fellow bond trader, I totally sympathize. Click here.

4) Tech Stocks May Be About to Fade, with grim guidance dominating earnings reports. Where will we fail at this run at the old highs? Click here.

5) Robots are Taking Over the Super Bowl, without mechanical friends dominating the ad space. I particularly liked the Budweiser ad with the Game of Thrones play. Next to come are the players who delivered the most boring game in history with a 13-3 score. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY)

(TLT), (AAPL),

(THE GOVERNMENT’S COMING WAR ON MONEY)

(THE FINTECH COMPANY YOU’VE NEVER HEARD OF),

(FISV), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (FDC), (PYPL), (SQ)

February 5, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 4, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 4, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Is the Fed Pausing Because of Political Pressure or an Economy that is Falling Apart? Neither is a good answer for equity holders. Start cutting back risk while you can. There are lots of bids on the way up but none on the way down as December showed. Click here.

2) Factory Orders Nosedive 0.6% in November, the worst in a year. Funny how nobody wants to make stuff ahead of a recession.

3) Oil Prices Love the Venezuela Meltdown. But how high can prices go in the face of a fading economy? Watch out for the coming coup d’ etat. Click here.

4) New Junk Debt Issuance is Soaring. Do you think they’re trying to grab a seat before the music stops playing? Click here.

5) Exxon Pops on Earnings Beat. The rising price of Texas Tea is everything even though it is all hedged on (XOM)’s books. Gotta love that Venezuela crisis. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or FROM PANIC TO EUPHORIA),

(SPY), (TLT), (AAPL), (GLD),

(WHY AMAZON IS TAKING OVER THE WORLD),

(AMZN)

February 4, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 1, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) January Nonfarm Payroll Surprises at 304,000. However, December was revised down by 90,000, so the market response was muted. The headline unemployment rate rises to 4.0%. Is the bottom in? Click here.

2) Weekly Jobless Claims Up a Stunning 53,000 to 253,000, an 18-month high. While government workers can’t claim, their private subcontractors can, hence the massive shutdown-driven jump. Click here.

3) US Coal Production Hits a 39-Year Low, as it is steadily replaced by natural gas and solar. A 19th-century energy source meets a 19th-century fate. Avoid (KOL) like the plague, buy Tesla (TSLA). Click here.

4) Amazon Appalls, with record earnings but surprisingly weak guidance. Stock dives $90. Buy the dip. This is only a short-term hickey. There is a double in Amazon from here, despite the divorce. Click here.

5) Why are all Major Companies Reporting Good Earnings but Cautious Guidance? Are they reading the newspapers, or do they know something we don’t? Not a great sign of a continuing bull market. Sell the next capitulation top.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE DEATH OF KING KOL),

(KOL), (PEA),

(THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF ONLINE RETAILING),

(SNAP), (GPRO), (APRN), (SFIX)

February 1, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 31, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 31, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) “PATIENCE” is still the order of the day at the Federal Reserve, with its Open Market Committee Meeting ordering no interest rate rise. It was a trifecta for the doves. The free pass for stocks continues. That’s why I covered all my shorts starting from last week. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. Click here.

2) Case Shiller Home Price Index Drops Again, in November, from 5.3% to 5.2% YOY. Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Seattle are still showing the largest gains. It looks like your home-flipping days are over. Click here.

3) Stocks Pop to a 16X Multiple, on a Dow up 500-point day. Given that earnings growth for 2019 is coming down to a 0%-5% range, the market looks a little bit rich to me. Don’t try to pick up too many pennies in front of the steamroller. Click here.

4) Chicago PMI Hits a Two-Year low plunging from 61.40 to 56.7. Why is the bond market saying we are going into recession and the stock market say we aren’t? Warning: the bond market is always right. Click here.

5) Tesla Reports Another Profit, for the second consecutive quarter and the company is about to reach escape velocity. Stocks dive $10. Model 3 production in 2019 to reach 75% of the total output and we can expect a new pickup truck. A second factory in Shanghai will take the “3” to over a half million units a year. That $35,000 Tesla is just over the horizon. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(MARKET GETS A FREE PASS FROM THE FED),

(SPY), ($INDU), (TLT), (GLD), (FXE), (UUP),

(APPLE SEIZES VICTORY FROM THE JAWS OF DEFEAT),

(AAPL)

January 31, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 30, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 30, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) Apple Slightly Beats Expectations, with revenues at $84.31 billion versus $83.97 billion expected, and earnings at $4.18 per share versus $4.17 expected. Guidance going forward is very cautious of a slowing China. The stock was up twelve bucks at the peak. Good thing I saw the ambush coming and covered my short two days ago. A penny beat is the most managed earnings I have ever seen. To warn about earnings and then surprise to the upside is classic Tim Cook. Click here.

2) Consumer Confidence Falls Off a Cliff, to an 18-month low, a key index dropping from 126.6 in December to 120.2 in January. Getting the bill from you maxed out credit cards last month didn’t help. Nor did the government shutdown and the stock market crash. Click here.

3) Gold Hits an 8 Month High, as nervous investors hoover up a downside hedge. Russian and Chinese central bank buying helps too. Click here.

4) AMD Soars 10% on its Earnings Beat, and the outlook is rosy, says the CEO Lisa Su. Apparently, not all chip stocks are alike. Click here.

5) December Pending Home Sales Crater, down 2.2% in December and 9.8% YOY. Despite the dramatically lower interest rates buyers fled the crashing stock market. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),

(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR),

(WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD),

(GLD), (GDX), (ABX),

(IS THE BOTTOM IN FOR FACEBOOK?),

(FB)

January 30, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 29, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 29, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) NVIDIA guides Down and Semis Get Crushed, down 10% across the board. Excess inventory, falling prices, and the demise of crypto get the blame. Use this dip to start buying the most cyclical industry in the market.

2) How’s the Economy Doing?Beats me! It could be weeks before the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis returns to its regular schedule of data releases. Stock traders will just have to guess unto then. Click here.

3) Bitcoin Hits a New One Year Low, at $3,400. Some $400 billion has gone to money Heaven since 2017. Only $113 billion in market capitalization remains. I told you it was a Ponzi scheme. Click here.

4) All Eyes Are on Apple Today, which reports earnings after the close. Tim Cook already braced investors for a disappointment weeks ago. The big question is how fast non-iPhone earnings will grow which were up 19% last year. Click here.

5) US $1.5 trillion Tax Cut Has No Impact on Capital Spending Plans, says the nonpartisan congressional budget office. Why waste money on expensive factories when you can buy your own stock and boost management compensation? Told you so. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(RISK CONTROL FOR DUMMIES),

(SPY), (AMZN), (TLT), (CRM), (VXX)

(WHAT'S BEHIND THE NVIDIA MELTDOWN),

(QRVO), (MU), (SWKS), (NVDA), (AMD), (INTC), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (FB)

January 29, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for January 28, 2019

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
January 28, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) The Shutdown is Over, But How Much Did it Cost Us?Standard & Poor’s says $6 billion but the restart costs will be greater. Click here.

2) Has the Bull Market for Emerging Markets Already Started? A weak dollar and falling dollar is all you need. That’s why securities you can’t pronounce have been on a tear so far in 2019. Buy (EEM) dip for the next six months. Click here.

3) Stocks Get Crushed on Slowing Global Economy, down 350 on terrible Caterpillar (CAT) numbers, a slowing global economy, and collapsing business confidence. We are way overdue for a sharp correction. Keeping my short in Apple (AAPL), already sold all my longs. Click here.

4) Brazilian Iron Ore Producer Vale Kills 300 in Brazil, when a tailings dam failed, delivering a body blow to a major commodity play. Stocks down nearly 20%. This is what deregulation gets you on a bad day. Your imported steel just got more expensive. Click here.

5) Meet the House of the Year, the most beautiful home published by the Wall Street Journal in 2018. This waterfront masterpiece on the Hawaiian island of Kauai can be yours for only $16 million, and I bet they’ll accept a lower offer. Click here.

Published today in the Mad HedgeGlobal Trading Dispatchand Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or IT’S FINALLY OVER)

(SPY), (TLT), (FXE), (MSFT), (AAPL),

(PG), (F), (LRCX), (AMD), (XLNX)

(BUY DIPS IN SEMIS, NOT TOPS),

(XLNX), (LRCX), (AMD), (TXN), (NVDA), (INTC), (SOXX), (SMH), (MU), (QQQ)

January 28, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

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