I need a vacation.
I have been working nonstop for years and desperately need a break.
You can tear up your Rolodex card for me, unfriend me on Facebook, designate my email address as SPAM, and block my Twitter account. It won’t do you any good.
If I don’t take some time off, I am going to start raving MAD!
Over the last three years, I have worked the hardest in my entire life.
This year, I have brought in a total return of +97.3%, versus -23.7% for the S&P 500, far and away the best of my life and almost certainly yours as well. If you got half of my performance, you beat virtually everyone else in the industry, even the best hedge funds. In other words, I under-promised and over-delivered in spades.
If you wonder why I do this, it’s really very simple. Read my inbox and you would burst into tears.
Every day, I learn tales of mortgages paid off, student loans dealt with, college educations financed, and early retirements launched. I am improving lives by the thousands. That’s far better than any hedge fund bonus could offer me, although I wouldn’t mind owning the Golden State Warriors.
At this late stage in my life, the most valuable thing is to be needed and listened to. If that means becoming a cult leader, that’s fine with me. After all, the last guy to try this route got crucified.
This was one of those once-in-a-century years, like 1968, when absolutely everything happened; the War in Ukraine, an energy crisis, an interest rate spike, and a midterm election. Any One of these could have triggered a bear market. We got all four. To say we had challenges would be putting it mildly.
I had to become a chief medical officer, advising staff in four countries and five US states which vaccine to get and how to get it. Not a single person got sick. Then the US staff all applied for PPP loans and got them.
When the Philippine staff began starving because of severe government lockdown orders, I went to Costco, bought a 50-pound bag of rice, and sent it to Manila by Federal Express. It worked.
When horrific uncontrollable wildfires broke out in California, I flew spotter planes for Cal Fire, holding the stick with one hand and a pair of binoculars with the other, looking for trouble and radioing in coordinates and directing aerial tankers. Nobody can fly wildfires like I can.
I lost access to my Lake Tahoe house when the big fire hit right in the middle of a remodel. All the contractors disappeared chasing much higher-paying insurance work. At least we now have a 20-mile-wide fire break to the southwest of the house.
I have high hopes for next summer, starting with my seminar at sea on the Queen Mary II.
On top of all this, I was on speed dial at the Joint Chiefs and the US Marine Corps. A major? Really? Seems you’re not the only one in desperate need of global macro advice. The sanctions are working great by the way.
So, I will spend the next two weeks reading the deep research, speaking with old hedge fund buddies, and trying to come up with a game plan for 2023. One thing is certain: we will likely make more money this year than next, the setup is so clear.
Instead of sending out urgent trade alerts, emergency news flashes, and more research than you can read, I’ll be playing Monopoly and Risk, practicing my banjo, a catching up on some classic films.
I’ll watch Elf for the millionth time if the kids watch Gary Cooper’s 1949 Task Force, the history of naval aviation (semper fi).
In the meantime, I’ll be running some of my favorite research pieces from the past over the next two weeks. I will not be sending Hot Tips until January 3rd.
We got five feet of snow in Tahoe by last weekend. Boy, do we need it.
So, everyone please have some great holidays, spend your trading profits, and get well rested. We have some serious work to do in 2023.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year,
John Thomas
CEO and Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
