There is no better was to start off a strategy luncheon than sending out, not just one, but two Trade Alerts in the morning, and then watching them soar 50% by the time the appetizer was served.
That was the case on April 4, when I picked up short positions in the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 for my model trading portfolio the morning of my event in sleepy Incline Village, Nevada, minutes before the major market meltdown that ensued. I wish they all started off this well.
I managed to procure the best table in the house, right on the beach of pristine Lake Tahoe. The distant summit of snow covered Mount Talac beckoned. But that is for another day.
The gathering had the flavor of a convening secret society, where the high and the mighty traded jokes, exchanged funny stories, and swapped insights on favorite trading strategies, securities, and research sources.
We discussed how the appearance of a much more Vladimir Putin in Russia is creating a permanently higher level of volatility. But there won?t be another cold war, as the last one drove the old Soviet Union broke. Russia will also have a problem pursuing its grand goals in the face of flat or falling energy prices, its largest cash cow.
We also talked about my friend, Michael Lewis?s new book, ?Flashboys?, with its well-publicized claim that the markets are rigged. The reality is that order execution is cheaper now than at any time in history, and that the amounts of cash taken out by high frequency traders are wildly exaggerated given the vast size of the market, some $23 trillion in market capitalization at last count.
It?s really all about hedge funds complaining about other hedge funds that are smarter and faster. I thought it was all just a ploy to sell books on an otherwise slow news day.
The goal of the lunch was for me to provide the fundamental justification for the spectacular gains I expect in all asset classes by 2030. Only bonds will do poorly. The trick is to get through the next five years, when markets will be sketchy, volatile, and have to discount a recession and another presidential election. I also outlined my planned story ideas for The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader for the next several weeks.
In exchange, I received first class market intelligence from my guests, who came from a broad range of careers, including oil exploration, system networking, accounting, mining, and hedge fund trading.
I never cease to learn from the attendees, and often harvest great trading ideas from them, which I share with you. This is why I enjoy these lunches so much, and have planned a total of 26 of them around the world in 2014. Virgin America/Virgin Atlantic love me.
While up at Incline Village, I planned my schedule so I could work in a 10 mile hike or snowshoe every afternoon for 14 consecutive days. This I do carrying a 60-pound pack, frequently in the dark.
It is wonderful spending time in the High Sierra?s during the dead of winter in total isolation. After all, no one is mad enough to do this but me, so I always go solo.
One day I was headed back down from the 10,000 foot eastern ridge line and noticed some new tracks. I hadn?t noticed anyone with an exceptionally large dog that day. That meant they could only be mountain lion tracks. Oops!
It turned out that the cat has been stalking me for over a mile during my ascent. I never heard a thing. Just to be sure, I took a picture of the tracks for consultation with an expert (see below).
Sure enough, the next day a National Forest ranger told me that these were indeed mountain lion tracks. He said that what saved me was my backpack, which altered my apparent shape to the hunting feline. These are conservative animals (after all, this is Nevada!), and they won?t attack anything they don?t recognize. They knew the big cat was in the neighborhood because they had recently found several freshly slaughtered deer carcasses nearby.
The lion was long gone, as they home range over the same daily circuit looking for game, which can extend to 50 miles. As long as there were deer around for dinner, I was probably safe. The ranger suggested that I wear a human mask on the back of my head, which is what villagers in India do to fend off tigers. They won?t attack if they think someone is looking at them. All cats must think alike.
As I am spending more time at Lake Tahoe, I am becoming more civic minded. It seems that I originate my best Trade Alerts there, and I am a local celebrity. Maybe it?s the fresh air? The altitude?
That led me to donate a corporate sponsorship to the Diamond Peak Ski Team, the training entity for the town?s 6-16 racers. The team has been the springboard for several national competitors, and may hopefully contribute members to a future US Olympic ski team.
Don?t be surprised if the next time you ride the chair lift there, you find ?MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER? emblazoned on the chair in front of you. Two weeks after the check cleared the bank, two public electric car charging stations magically showed up at prime parking spaces at the resort.
I have the only Tesla in town, and I get delivery of my second in December, the first Model X SUV.
To watch a video of the team?s enchanting annual torchlight parade, where 150 kids ski down the mountain at night, single file with flares, please click the link: http://madhedgefundradio.com/torchlight/. The blue glow sticks are carried by the under eight crowd.
A Secret Society
Oops!
A Torchlight Parade
