While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
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RRC Long at $11.85
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RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
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FEYE Long at $17.18
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FEYE Short Jan 17th - $19 Call @ $0.26
DBX Long at $17.18
DBX Short Jan 31st-$17 call @ $0.70
X Long at $11.33
NET Long at $17.09
NET Short Jan 17th - $17.50 call @ $0.55
FDX Long Jan 17th - $150 Put for $3.05
FDX Short Jan 17th - $145 Put for $1.37
DG Long Jan 31st - $152.50 Call @ $2.90
DG Short Jan 31st - $155.00 Call @ $1.70
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The S & P 500 continued to inch higher based on the news that a trade deal with China is being finalized. At least phase one, that is.
The S & P 500 closed at 3,289.29 for the day. It closed up 6.14 points.
Yesterday's low came in at 3,280.69 or about a point under the minor 3,281.20, which we suggested should now be support.
The range for the day was 17.97 points or about 3 points below the daily average true range, which is now 20.95. And the day closed at 48% of the daily price bar. This is a relatively neutral reading, but the daily bar did make a higher high and higher low, so momentum still remains to the upside.
Support from yesterday's daily bar should be in the 3,286 to 3,290 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 10 points higher.
This suggests the market should open around 3,300.
If the market does pullback, support should then be at the high at around 3,298. If the market breaks under this level, then look for support at the close, which is 3,289.29.
The upper band is now 3,321 and the projected open would put the market within 21 points of the extreme upper band.
This is a key level to watch.
The only bearish factor, other than the non decisive close percentage, is the fact that the S & P and the VIX diverged yesterday. They both closed to the upside. Usually this is a warning that a change of direction could be forthcoming.
And of course, the sentiment indicators all remain strongly bullish.
MS reported and is trading about $3 higher.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed Friday at 12.42. The VIX continues to trade around the major 12.50 level and cannot close above it.
Resistance should still be at 12.50 now. And at the minor 13.28 level.
This is now at the long term major support level. Watch this level for support. If it does break under 12.50, watch the next minor level, which is 11.72.
13.28 should be resistance. The 13 area is also technical resistance.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,427.40 <
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20 <
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
The S & P closed at 3,289.29. The next minor level on the upside is 3,320.25. Two closes above this level and the S & P should head up to 3,437.40.
3,281.20 should now act as support.
Technical support is still at 3,278.
QQQ:
Major level: 221.91 <
Minor level: 221.13
Minor level: 219.56 **
Major level: 218.78 HIT!
Minor level: 218.00
Minor level: 216.43
Major level: 215.65
Minor level: 214.87
Minor level: 213.30
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 211.74
Minor level: 210.17
Major level: 209.39
The QQQ closed at 220.17. The objective for the QQQ should still be up to 221.91.
The QQQ is right at the upper band on the daily chart. The upper band is now 221.14. Watch to see if the QQQ can clear the upper band.
So, the QQQ continues to be the strongest of the major markets.
Support should be at 218.78. And technical support is at 220.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 167.37. The objective for the IWM should be up to 168.75. And yesterday's high was within 1 point of it. Again.
The 164.06 level should continue to offer support.
And the 165 area should also offer technical support. 168 is the upper band on the daily chart for the IWM. Watch this level.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 **
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 139.65. The objective for the TLT should now be to 140.63. But, it has to reclaim the minor 139.85 level. If it can't, it should pullback.
137.50 should continue to be support. And technical support should be around 139.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89 Hit
Minor level: 146.11 **
Minor level: 144.54
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The GLD closed at 146.54. The objective should be for a drop to 143.75. But, if the GLD clears 146.89, it should head higher and void the 143.75 objective.
146.89 should be minor resistance.
145 area should be support.
The key level is 134.38 on the downside. If the GLD has two closes under this level, it could drop to 125.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <<
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.40. The objective should be up to 62.50. But, at this point, it will need to clear 60.16. And yesterday, for the third day, the XLE closed just below it.
Watch for support at the 59.38 level. And yesterday closed just above it. It should still be support.
Technical support is still around 59.
AAPL:
Minor level: 315.63 **
Major level: 312.50 Hit
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Apple closed at 311.34. Apple would still need two closes above 315.63 level to move higher. It closed just under the 312.50 level, but is still holding just above the upper band.
The upper band is now 311.42.
309.38 should offer support.
The 309 area should offer technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, CHTR, LMT, ADBE, NTES, MA, AAPL, NVDA, GS, RTN, FB, LHX, CME, MCD, HD, COUP, MSFT, SPOT, SPLK, UHS, IBM
Bearish Stocks: AAP, FFIV, DLTR, TSCO, CTSH, DD, FIZZ, THS, RAMP, BERY, CIT, SIX
