While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $15.20
Premium Collected - $3.55
AMC Long at $15.27
Short January $16 Call @ $0.27
Premium Collected - $2.25
UNIT Long at $17
Short January $17.50 Call @ $0.35
Premium Collected - $.35
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I need to mention that you should have two short call positions that expire today. The first is the $16 call on AMC and the second is the short $17.50 call on UNIT.
Should both stocks settle today under their respective strike price, you will your shares and book the profit on the call options.
Both stocks closed under their respective strikes yesterday, so it appears highly likely that you will keep your shares.
The S & P 500 closed slightly to the downside yesterday. It closed at 2,798.03, down 4.53 points on the day.
The close was above the upper band on the daily chart, which is now 2,781.58.
The VIX hit a a high of 12.40 yesterday, before dropping to close at 12.22.
As I mentioned yesterday, I still felt that 12.50 should be resistance for the VIX and at this point, it has held.
The 30 minute and 60 minute charts for the S & P 500 remain in strong uptrends. This suggests that momentum is still to the upside.
Support from yesterday's daily price bar should be in the 2,800 area.
Yesterday's daily price bar was an inside day and a contraction. An expansion could follow today.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading slightly to the upside before the open. Yesterday's close, which was 2,798.03 should also be a key level for today.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94
Minor level: 10.55
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
Minor level: 8.99
Minor level: 8.20
Major level: 7.81
The VIX closed at 12.22. Watch the 12.50 level. I still expect resistance at this level, but if the VIX takes it out, it should head higher.
For the bull market to continue, I would not expect the VIX to exceed 12.50. If the VIX takes out 12.50 and hits 14.06, it would make me concerned that this sell off could be a bit deeper.
To move lower the VIX will need two closes under 12.11.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,724.23
Minor level: 2,705.07
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,685.55
Minor level: 2,666.05
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,646.53
The S & P 500 is flirting with the 2,812.50 objective. And yesterday's high was within 7 points of the target.
This is a key level, because if the S & P 500 cannot clear 2,812.50, a pullback should happen.
2,788.10 should offer minor support. And 2,797 could offer support.
QQQ:
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
The QQQ closed at 165.82. The objective should be to 168.75.
The 165.23 level should now act as support. And 165.63 could also offer support.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
The IWM closed at 156.54. At this point, the major 156.25 level should offer support.
If this level is violated, the IWM should head lower.
TLT:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61 **
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 123.05
The TLT closed at 123.71. We expected resistance at 125 and the TLT got as high as 125.64 before selling off.
The scenario now is if the TLT can close today under 124.61, it should drop to 123.44.
123.44 is a major level. Two closes under 123.44 and the TLT could drop to 120.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22 **
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96
The GLD closed at 125.86. I am still biased for a test of 128.13. And 125 should also offer support.
125.78 should offer minor support.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.74
Minor level: 76.95 **
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.61
Minor level: 73.83
Major level: 73.44
Minor level: 72.66
The XLE closed at 76.48. A close today above 76.95 would confirm a test of 78.13.
A close today under 77.74 and the XLE should test 75. 75 should be strong support.
76.37 is a minor support level.
FXY:
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
Major level: 86.72 <
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
The FXY closed at 86.41. At this point, I would expect support at 85.94. If this level is taken out, I would expect 85.16 to hold.
86.33 is a minor support level. And I would not expect the FXY to fall under 86.13.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 178.13, 175, 171.88, 168.75, 165.63, and 162.50.
Apple closed at 179.26. 178.13 should offer support. And 178.91 is a minor support level.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, SHW, TSLA, BA, NOC, SPY, FDX, FLT, RTN, AMGN, CMI, AAPL, EOG, JPM, WDAY
Bearish Stocks: SLG, KMB, KHC, EPR, NGG, JACK, O, NUVA
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
