While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
X Long at $11.33
NET Long at $17.09
NET Short Jan 17th - $17.50 call @ $0.55
FDX Long Jan 17th - $150 Put for $3.05
FDX Short Jan 17th - $145 Put for $1.37
................................................................................
There were a few positions that expired on Friday. The first was the short $19 call on FEYE, which expired.
And the $17.50 call on NET was executed on Friday. This resulted in the shares of NET being sold at $1750.
I also suggested you close out the debit spread on DBX for about a 100% return.
And finally, the put spread on FDX expired with a loss.
Now onto the markets.
Friday, the S & P 500 continued this historic run, closing 12.81 points higher. The week closed out at 3,329.62.
This was the first close above the minor 3,320.25 level.
This also put the market right at the upper band on the daily band. The upper band is 3,329.77 and Friday's close of 3,329.62 put the market within 15 cents of that level.
It does not seem that long ago, that I was saying that the target for the S & P should be to the upper band. And now it is here.
This now sets up a few scenarios, which I will continue to explore. Of course, the immediate key is to see if the the market can close above it.
With the strength this market has been showing, this would not be a shock.
Support from Friday's daily bar is in the 3,324 to 3,327 area. And of course, the minor 3,320 level should also offer support.
The weekly price bar closed 64.27 points higher. And it closed at 99.6% of the range for the week. This suggests that the high should be violated before the low.
And the range for the week exceeded the weekly average true range.
This week, we start to hear form more companies reporting earnings.
IBM and NFLX report tomorrow afternoon. INTC and SWKS report Thursday after the close.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 10 points lower.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed Friday at 12.10. The VIX closed under the major 12.50 level and hit a low of 11.75.
It would need to close under 11.72 to move lower.
So, resistance should still be at 12.50 now. And at the minor 13.28 level.
This is now at the long term major support level. Watch this level for support. If it does break under 12.50, watch the next minor level, which is 11.72.
13.28 should be resistance. The 12.50 area is also technical resistance.
S & P 500:
Major level: 3,427.40 <
Minor level: 3,398.35
Minor level: 3,320.25 **
Major level: 3,281.20 <
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
The S & P closed at 3,329.62. This was the first close above the minor 3,320.25 level.
Two closes above this level and the S & P should head up to 3,427.40. So, a close today above it would set up that scenario.
And the minor 3,329.62 level should act as support.
Technical support is still at 3,316.
QQQ:
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 224.22
Minor level: 222.69 **
Major level: 221.91 HIT!
Minor level: 221.13
Minor level: 219.56
Major level: 218.78
Minor level: 218.00
Minor level: 216.43
Major level: 215.65
Minor level: 214.87
Minor level: 213.30
Major level: 212.50
The QQQ closed at 223.38. This was the first close above the minor 222.69 level. This now suggests that if the QQQ closes above it today, it should run to 225.
Also, the QQQ closed above the upper band on its daily chart. That level is 222.03.
At this point, it should now be support.
221.91 should be support. And technical support is at 222.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
The IWM closed at 169.07. The next upside level is 170.31. Two closes above this level and the objective should be to 175.
The IWM did get as high as 170.36 but could not close above 170.31.
But, it did close above the upper band, which is 168.47.
Watch to see if the IWM can hold the upper band.
TLT:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 Hit
Minor level: 135.84
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The TLT closed at 138.02. The TLT hit the 137.50 level, but closed just above it.
At this point, the TLT will need two closes above 138.28 to move higher. And two closes under 135.84 to move lower.
The 140 area should be resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89 Hit
Minor level: 146.11 **
Minor level: 144.54
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
The GLD closed at 146.58. Watch the major 146.89 level. If the GLD can clear this level, it should move higher.
146.89 should be minor resistance, until it is violated.
The 145 area should still offer technical support.
Watch the 146.11 level on the downside.
XLE:
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38 **
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.86
Minor level: 55.08
Major level: 54.69
The XLE closed at 59.12. The XLE broke and closed under the major 59.38 level.
It will need two closes under 58.60 to move down to 56.25. And on the upside, the 60.16 is the confirming level.
Friday's close was just above the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 59.01 and Friday closed just above it. If it can't hold as support, the XLE should continue lower.
Technical support is still around 59.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63 **
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Apple closed at 318.73. Apple would still need two closes above 315.63 level to move higher. And Friday, Apple had the first close above it.
The upper band is now 314.53. And Apple is above it, so it should offer support.
315.63 should offer support.
The 315 area should offer technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, TSLA, SHOP, LMT, NOC, NTES, ADBE, AAPL, NOW, LRCS, COST, MA, AAPL, LRCX, INTU, BDX, NVDA, FB, HD
Bearish Stocks: FICE, CVX, CLB, MDP, TEX
