While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $15.20
Short Jan 12- $15.50 Call @ $0.31
Premium Collected - $3.55
AMC Long at $15.27
Short January $16 Call @ $0.27
Premium Collected - $2.25
UNIT Long at $17
Short January $17.50 Call @ $0.35
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Yesterday you should have added two short call positions, assuming you own the underlying stock.
The first is the short $15.50 call on SNAP and the second is the short January $16 call on AMC.
The market continued to follow through from the strong opening this year.
The S & P 500 closed at 2,713.06, up 17.25 points for the day. This puts the market above the next upside confirming level, which is 2,705.07.
This now implies that if the S & P 500 closes above 2,705.07 today, the objective becomes 2,734.40.
Confirming to the 2,734.40 level sets ups some interesting scenarios for the market.
The first is the fact that I think 2,734.40 should be a difficult level to get through on the first attempt.
It may take a few runs to do it.
But, with the strength of this bull market, blowing right through it would also not shock me.
I also don't feel that if the S & P 500 can clear 2,734.40 on the first attempt that a bear market is imminent. I would expect some consolidation and few attempts at that level.
Should the S & P trade right through 2,734.40, it would tell us that the market is most definitely going higher.
I have written before that I feel the ultimate target for this market is 2,812.
The confirming line up to 2,812 happens to be 2,695.35. Tuesday, the S & P closed at 2,695.81 and yesterday's close was 2,713.06.
so, we have had now had two closes above 2,695.35, so on the larger scale, the objective is to 2,812.
Also, expect 2,695.35 to act as support on a pullback.
Support from yesterday's daily price bar is in the 2,705 to 2,706 area.
As a final comment for today, I want to mention that the VIX closed firmly under 9.38. It closed for the day at 9.15. I had discussed that I felt there was a strong chance that the VIX does break under 9.38.
The question now is can it have two closes under 8.99? If it does, it should continue to head lower.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33 **
Major level: 10.94 <
Minor level: 10.55
Minor level: 10.16
Major level: 9.38
Minor level: 8.99
Minor level: 8.20
Major level: 7.81
The VIX close at 9.15. The low for the day was 8.94. The level is 8.99. Two closes under 8.99 and the VIX should test 7.81.
Also, watch to see if the VIX can reclaim the 9.38 level. I would still expect resistance at higher levels.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,724.23
Minor level: 2,705.07
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,685.55 **
Minor level: 2,666.05
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,646.53
Minor level: 2,626.98
Major level: 2,617.20
Minor level: 2,607.43
A close today above 2,705.07 and the objective becomes 2,734.
Support should be at 2,695.35. And minor support now at 2,705.
QQQ:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.34
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
The QQQ closed at 160.03. The objective for the QQQ should be the 162.50 level.
I feel that the ultimate objective for the QQQ is 175.
156.25 should be minor support.
IWM:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 154.06. Yesterday was the second day closing above 153.91, so the objective becomes 156.25.
153.13 should offer support. And 153.52 should be minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13 <
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61 **
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
The TLT closed at 126.09. A close today above 125.78 and the TLT should test 128.13 again.
And minor resistance is at 126.56. And minor support is at 125.39.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96
The GLD closed at 124.82. Watch to see if the GLD can reclaim 125.
I am biased for resistance at 125.
GLD is at an interesting price level. A straddle could make sense now. either the GLD will fail and head back to test 115 or continue up to test of 137.
XLE:
Major level: 75.00 <
Minor level: 74.61
Minor level: 73.83
Major level: 73.44
Minor level: 72.66
Minor level: 71.09
Major level: 70.31
Minor level: 69.92
Minor level: 69.14
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 68.36
The XLE closed at 74.55. The XLE came within 26 cents of the 75 objective.
75 is the key level now. A failure to clear this level and the XLE could pullback.
Also, the XLE is almost at the upper band on the daily chart. The upper band is 74.84.
The 200 ema did cross above the 253 day average on the daily chart. the 200 ema is 67.11 and the 253 day average is 67.03.
These levels should offer support on a pullback.
FXY:
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 **
Major level: 85.16 <
Minor level: 84.96
Minor level: 84.55
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 85.30. The FXY failed to close above 85.36.
Watch to see if it can hold 85.16. If it can't I would expect a drop back to 84.38.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 175, 171.88, 168.75, 165.63, 162.50, and 159.38.
Apple close at 172.23.
The next minor level to the upside is 172.66. Two closes above 172.66 and Apple should head back to 175.
Watch to see if Apple can hold 171.88. If it can, it should head higher.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, NOC, GD, LLL, FLT, HD, CMI, SWK, CAT, DE, VRTX, UTX, FANG, CRI, VLO, PFE
Bearish Stocks: JACK, DISH, ABM, AGO, JBL, IMAX, WMGI, SSYS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
