While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
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BERY Long Sept $50.00 Call at $2.70
OI Long Nov $17 Call for $1.25 OI Short Nov $20 Call for $0.35 BAC Long Nov $28 Call for $1.78 BAC Short Nov $31 Call for $0.62 DDD Long at $14.60 DDD Short July 13th-$15 Call at $0.25 ..........................................................................................
The S & P 500 managed to follow through from the July 4th rally and closed 24.35 points to the upside.
The market closed at 2,784.17 yesterday.
Not only did the S & P 500 close above the major 2,773.40 level, it closed above the next upside level which is 2,783.18. This now implies that if the
S & P 500 can close above 2,783.18 today, the upside objective should be to 2,812.50.
I do need to point out that the range yesterday was 16.14 points and the market closed 25.35 higher. This was due to the bullish gap open, which was 8.69 points.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 3.50 points higher.
Based on yesterday's daily price bar, support should be in the 2,776 area.
And this upswing is happening as both the 30 and 60 minute charts are in downtrends. The 60 minute chart is close to crossing into an uptrend and if it can, I would expect further continuation of this upswing.
But, price is above the midband on both short term timecharts.
For the 30 minute chart, the 253 day average is 2,752 and for the 60 minute chart, that level is 2,743. Support should be at either level on a pullback.
The only item of concern at the moment is that the VIX is back down to its long term support level.
The 12.50 level is typically the level that the VIX bounces. It could drop down and test the major 9.38 level. For the VIX to test 9.38 it will first have to break under 12.50. So, watch to see how the VIX reacts at this level.
This Friday, before the open, we will get earnings from some of the major banks, including Citigroup, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and PNC.
BAC reports July 16th, before the open.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 12.69. It closed .68 points to the downside. The VIX came within 10 cents of the 12.50 objective.
Watch for resistance at 14.84. Also, minor resistance should be at 14.06. And possibly at 13.28.
On the downside, support should be at 10.94.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,802.73
Minor level: 2,783.18 **
Major level: 2,773.40
Minor level: 2,763.65
Minor level: 2,744.15
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,724.63
Minor level: 2,705.08
Major level: 2,695.30
Minor level: 2,685.55
Minor level: 2,666.05
Major level: 2,656.30
Look for support at the minor 2,763.70 and 2,775.90 levels. If the S & P 500 can clear 2,788.10, I would expect a run up to 2,800.
From that level, the market will be within 12 points of the major 2,812.50 level.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
The QQQ closed at 177.19. A close today above 176.56 and the objective for the QQQ should be 181.25.
175 should offer strong support. And minor support is at 176.56.
IWM:
Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
The IWM closed at 169.31. The IWM took out the 168.75 objective.
168.75 should offer strong support.
The 30 minute chart is close to moving into an uptrend. A bullish cross would indicate higher prices for the IWM.
TLT:
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70 **
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The TLT closed at 121.96. The objective for the TLT should be up to 123.44.
121.88 should be minor support. A break under this level and I would expect the TLT to continue lower.
GLD:
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14 **
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
The GLD closed at 119.15. A close today above 119.14 and the GLD should test 120.31.
120.31 should be minor resistance on the upside.
With the daily chart just crossing into a downtrend, look to sell this rally when it fails.
XLE:
Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22 **
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 76.80. A close today above 75.78 and the objective should be to 78.13.
On the downside, two closes under 74.22 and the XLE should drop to 71.88.
The major 75 level should continue to offer support. 77.34 could offer resistance.
FXY:
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
Major level: 86.72 <
Minor level: 86.53 **
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
The FXY closed at 86.37. The objective is still down to 85.94. Watch to see if the FXY clears 86.72. If it does, it should head higher.
86.52 is resistance. Support is at 86.13.
AAPL:
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Apple closed at 190.58. A close today above 189.06 and Apple should test 193.75.
189.06 is minor resistance. And minor support should be at 187.50.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: NFLX, BDX, FLT, FB, VMW, FANG, CNC, DPS, CTSH, NKE, AVAV, LW, APA, ETSY, PFE, SJM
Bearish Stocks: SWK, WBC, NXPI, TSN, WRK, WRK, KMT, LM, BITA, RMBS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.